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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 17, 2024 23:28:01 GMT
New polling outfit founded by Andrew Hawkins formerly of Comres.
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Post by woollyliberal on Feb 18, 2024 8:23:18 GMT
Twenty Percent, and with a sample size of 13k. That's quite a house effect.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 18, 2024 11:21:41 GMT
To quote Brenda from Bristol again, "not another one!".
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Post by John Chanin on Feb 18, 2024 12:52:45 GMT
Maybe batman working in the industry can explain why there has seemingly been an explosion in the number of polling outfits. I know political polling is a 'shopfront' and earnings actually come from workaday commercial surveys, but why should there be a sudden rise in demand for these? And if there isn't how do all these new organizations make a profit and stay in business? |
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Post by woollyliberal on Feb 18, 2024 13:36:59 GMT
To quote Brenda from Bristol again, "not another one!". Nope, not having that. You can't have too many polls. If more pollsters equals more polls, bring them on. |
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Post by woollyliberal on Feb 18, 2024 13:41:44 GMT
I've been thinking about this 20%. I'm going to guess that it is the actual number of people saying they'll vote Tory, with all the Don't Knows removed. It is in line with the other 21s, 22s and 23s lately. Other pollsters "process" the Don't Knows by past vote, assuming that they'll stop 'not knowing' closer to the election. The assumption is that some of them will end up voting Conservative after all. Those pollsters are giving 29s, 28s and 27s at the moment. The proof of that particular pudding will be convergence as polling day approaches.
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Post by batman on Feb 18, 2024 14:26:57 GMT
Maybe batman working in the industry can explain why there has seemingly been an explosion in the number of polling outfits. I know political polling is a 'shopfront' and earnings actually come from workaday commercial surveys, but why should there be a sudden rise in demand for these? And if there isn't how do all these new organizations make a profit and stay in business? wish I could help John. Truth is, I am merely a humble fieldworker, not involved at all in decisions higher up the food chain, and I have no idea. It may be that if the next general election has a very decisive result one or two may not be seen much if at all after that. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 19, 2024 10:04:34 GMT
Maybe batman working in the industry can explain why there has seemingly been an explosion in the number of polling outfits. I know political polling is a 'shopfront' and earnings actually come from workaday commercial surveys, but why should there be a sudden rise in demand for these? And if there isn't how do all these new organizations make a profit and stay in business? There are some pollsters who come and go - who now remembers Hanbury Strategy, for instance? |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 19, 2024 10:12:29 GMT
Maybe batman working in the industry can explain why there has seemingly been an explosion in the number of polling outfits. I know political polling is a 'shopfront' and earnings actually come from workaday commercial surveys, but why should there be a sudden rise in demand for these? And if there isn't how do all these new organizations make a profit and stay in business? There are some pollsters who come and go - who now remembers Hanbury Strategy, for instance? Or Angus Reid? Stonehaven Consulting appear still to be in business. |
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Post by london(ex)tory on Feb 19, 2024 11:13:36 GMT
There are some pollsters who come and go - who now remembers Hanbury Strategy, for instance? Or Angus Reid? Stonehaven Consulting appear still to be in business. I had a meeting with Stonehaven a few weeks ago, they were trying to launch a subscription platform for their MRP modelling but the kind of figures they were talking about as a monthly fee were astronomical and not something I could even consider signing up for whether as an individual, through my business or through the party. It really was silly money they were asking for. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 19, 2024 11:35:04 GMT
I think Angus Reid are still one of the main Canadian pollsters aren't they? Their foray into UK polling was brief and not too successful.
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312 
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Post by maxque on Feb 20, 2024 0:20:44 GMT
I think Angus Reid are still one of the main Canadian pollsters aren't they? Their foray into UK polling was brief and not too successful. Angus Reid history is a mess. In the 80's and 90's, there was the Angus Reid Group. It was sold to Ipsos in 2000. Then, Angus Reid got hired by Vision Critical (founded by his son) and created a division called Angus Reid Public Opinion. That's the one known in UK. In 2014, he had a fall-out with the board and left to create a third organisation (the one currently active in Canada), the Angus Reid Institute. It's not that great of a pollsters. They do quite good in English Canada, but usually do pretty badly in Quebec (constant over-evaluation of the right/hard-right), which obviously screws the whole headline result. Vision Critical was sold at a point and now does business under the name Alida, it's not a pollster anymore. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Feb 20, 2024 8:07:00 GMT
To quote Brenda from Bristol again, "not another one!". Nope, not having that. You can't have too many polls. If more pollsters equals more polls, bring them on. If they're decent pollsters, yes. But the US, for example, is plagued with low quality and partisan polls, and we can do without those. |
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Post by hullenedge on May 17, 2024 16:47:45 GMT
Lab 44
Con 24
Ref 13
LD 8
Green 6
SNP 3
Others 3
15-16 May
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gibbon
Non-Aligned
Posts: 254
Member is Online
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Post by gibbon on May 17, 2024 17:02:59 GMT
20% Labour lead here and 27% with YouGov. Even at 20% it looks like a Labour landslide. Will the Conservatives reach 100 MPs?
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Post by batman on May 17, 2024 17:06:56 GMT
in fact 4 polls out today. The Labour leads are 20, 23, 27 & 27. That's an average of over 24.
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Post by london(ex)tory on May 17, 2024 17:30:46 GMT
in fact 4 polls out today. The Labour leads are 20, 23, 27 & 27. That's an average of over 24. A glut of polls to compensate for the lack of by-elections this week - we need our psephological fix somehow! |
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Post by batman on May 17, 2024 17:43:30 GMT
it had been a quiet week for polls until today.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
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Post by The Bishop on May 18, 2024 10:21:47 GMT
in fact 4 polls out today. The Labour leads are 20, 23, 27 & 27. That's an average of over 24. Five actually (its 20, 23, 23, 27, 27) |
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Post by batman on May 18, 2024 11:31:05 GMT
In which case it’s an average of exactly 24
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