Post by andrewp on Feb 3, 2024 15:37:45 GMT
With credit to Penddu for the original profile for Cardiff Central and LDCaerdydd for some excellent information supplied.
Cardiff East will return as a name on the constituency map in 2024 for the first time since 1950. This new Cardiff East is clearly the successor to the current Cardiff Central, a name which itself disappears from the map for the first time since 1983. The new Cardiff East contains almost all of the territory directly East of the city centre of the welsh capital and will now be the only one of the four seats in the Welsh capital that does not contain some territory from outside of the city administrative area. Cardiff unitary authority had an entitlement to about 3.5 parliamentary constituencies in the review that will come into force at the 2024 general election, but rather than instigate radical change , they have broadly kept four constituencies based predominantly in the city, and based on current constituencies, and topped up with territory from outside of the city where needed.
The redrawing of the Cardiff seats will see for the first time since 1945 the four compass points used as seat names and the new Cardiff East is definitely the east of the city. Its most western point will be the junction between the South Wales Mainline and the Valley’s network, the most eastern point being the somewhat remote and somewhat upper-class St Mellon’s Golf club, by the time you reach that if travelling on the A48 you definitely don’t feel as though you’re in a city, even if you are on the border between Cardiff and Newport.
Cardiff Central was previously a relatively compact, and significantly undersized. constituency containing the city centre and broadly the area immediately to the East of the centre. Now, the city centre itself, in Cathays ward, is moved into Cardiff South and Penarth so the rest of the Central constituency ( about 47000 electors) are joined with the northern section of the straggly Cardiff South and Penarth seat.( about 25000 electors) in a seat which has a much greater suburban element than Cardiff Central had.
Of the four previous Cardiff seats, Central was by far the smallest in terms of electorate and geographically the smallest in Wales. Cardiff Central was also the only seat in Wales without a farm, something which following the next general election won’t be the case.
Broadly the constituency is now made up of three almost equally populated parts which are divided by 2 main roads, the A48, the main road into Cardiff City centre and the A4232.
To the south of the A48 is a mostly densely populated area with inner city, somewhat deprived, multi cultural characteristics. Here we find Adamsdown, sandwiched between the main railway line and the main road into Cardiff, Plasnewydd and part of Penylan wards. Adamsdown features cheaper more compact terraced housing, 36% of which is private rented, squeezed between Newport Road and the Great Western Mainline and a signifcant proportion of ethnic minorities. Just 26% of adults in Adamsdown have level 4 ( degree level) qualifications compared to 48% in Cyncoed a couple of miles away. 3 of the 5 MSOA areas in Adamsdown ward are in the 10% of most deprived areas of Wales and none are in the least deprived half.
The seat is dissected by the South Wales Main line yet doesn’t contain any railway stations on the line (it does however share Cardiff Queen Street with neighbouring Cardiff South), this is set to change with two new potential stations, Cardiff East and Cardiff Parkway, the later being proposed by the owners of the soon to be developed Hendre Lakes business park.
To the north of the inner ring road, is the 2nd distinct section of the new seat, the northern part of Penylan ward, Cyncoed and Pentwyn wards. This is on the whole a much more affluent part of the city including Roath, home to a mixed community of young professionals, a proportion of south Asians (most visible along City Road) and in parts an increasing student population in recent years. Roath also gives its name to the large park , Roath Park, opened in 1894 , which was one of the first public parks in Cardiff and still retains its classic Victorian atmosphere and layout of characterful linear parks, extending along the Nant Fawr stream. The area around Roath Park and neighbouring Cyncoed are the most affluent parts of the constituency and Cardiff as a whole, with large owner-occupied detached houses abundant and high house prices. In contrast, Llanedeyrn to the east is dominated by 1960’s housing estates featuring a mostly white working-class population. The area around Cycnoed and Roath typically for many higher status city areas, has trended away from the Conservative Party in recent decades. In 1983 and 1987 when they won the Cardiff Central constituency these areas would have been the very core of their vote. Cyncoed and Roath were both safe Conservative wards in the 1980s, both giving the Conservatives over 60% of the vote in the 1983 local elections for instance, but have transitioned into strong areas for the Liberal Democrats these days.
The third and eastern part of this seat, arriving from Cardiff South and Penarth constituency, and across the river Rhymney to the east includes the districts of Llanrumney, Rumney, Trowbridge and St Mellons. These are 1960s & 70s housing estates and are generally Labour leaning. Some of the MSOA’s in Rumney and Llanrumney are quite deprived and overall the area is quite mixed. The river Rhymney was formerly the historic boundary between Glamorgan and Monmouthshire, and so this area of the Welsh capital was arguabally in England until this historic anomaly was rectified in 1974, but you wont find many (if any) local residents who believe they are in England.
Cardiff Council designate the southern boundary of the county (from Ely in the West to Trwobridge in the East) as the “Southern Arc” and note that if that were a county in it’s own right it would be by far the poorest county in Wales. Included in this “Arc” are four wards in this new seat (Trowbridge, Rumney, Llanrumney and Adamsdown) meaning this new seat whilst having significant wealth (million pound houses are not the norm in Cyncoed but are numerous) the seat also contains significant poverty and the social challenges that come with it.
Overall this constituency still has a younger, more studenty demographic than average but it will not be quite as pronounced as Cardiff Central was. It is still in the lowest quartile for people in both of the two oldest age categories with 15.9% of people in 50-64 age group and 14.3% aged over 65 and students still make up 15.7% of the population placing the seat 36th highest in England and Wales. The percentage of adults with degrees varies from 56% in leafy Cyncoed to 27% in Trowbridge. It is 55.1% owner occupied and 25.2% private rented, which makes it slightly more owner occupied and less private rented that Cardiff South and Penarth thanks predominantly to the three new wards arriving in the seat. It is 77.3% white, with the non white population being highest at Adamsdown (28%) and lowest at Llanrumney (13%)
In the 2022 local elections in Cardiff, Labour won 14 councillors to 8 for the Liberal Democrats and none for the Conservatives in the wards now in Cardiff East. The Conservatives highest share of the vote was 30% in Rumney ward and their last win at local elections in any of the wards was in Cyncoed in 2017. In 2022, the Liberal Democrats won affluent Cyncoed easily, Penylan more narrowly and Pentwyn split between Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Labour won all the other wards very comfortably.
The Cardiff Central parliamentary constituency, of which Cardiff East is the successor seat, was recreated for the 1983 election, which the incumbent Conservative MP for Cardiff North Ian Grist won over evenly split opposition. Labour and the Liberals swapped 2nd and 3rd places in a much closer three-way contest in 1987. Grist was defeated by Labour’s Jon Owen Jones in 1992, who held the seat for 13 years but never comfortably, his largest majority was nearly 8,000 over the Liberal Democrats in the 1997 landslide. The Lib Dems gained the seat in 2005, one of a number of ‘student’ seats they gained in an election where the party made abolition of tuition fees and opposition to the Iraq War key policy positions. Jenny Willott served as MP for two terms, losing her seat to Labour in the Lib Dem collapse of 2015. Jo Stevens has been the MP since and currently serves in the Shadow Cabinet. Labour support in the constituency has strengthened since 2015, consolidating its position amongst student voters and pro-Europeans (Stevens herself has stood for anti-Brexit positions in the Commons, defying the Labour Whip on occasions during the 2015 and 2017 Parliaments). At the 2019 election, Cardiff Central returned the largest Labour majority in Wales, a scenario that would have been unthinkable even 10 years ago.
The new boundaries here- the removal of Cathays ward and the addition of Llanrumney, Rumney and Trowbridge would have made a significant difference to this seat in the past. The Liberal Democrats won Cardiff Central by 5593 in 2005 and then by 4576 in 2010. It is far from clear that they would have won on these boundaries in either year. Notionals suggest this would have been on a knife edge between Labour and the Liberal Democrats in both years with perhaps Labour edging home in 2005 and the Liberal Democrats perhaps gaining in 2010. The Liberal Democrats have usually been weak in Llanrumney, Rumney and Trowbridge wards, although they did get one councillor elected in Trowbridge in 2008, and of course the Liberal Democrats would very likely have campaigned harder in those wards in 2005 and 2010 had they been in this constituency at that time.
With the exception of Cyncoed all of the territory in the new seat could be considered natural territory for Labour either by virtue of being solidly working class or filled with modern young professionals as is the case with Plasnewydd and Penylan. The notional result here reduces the Labour majority slightly but this is notionally the second safest Labour seat in Wales and they will have no trouble here in 2024.
Cardiff East will return as a name on the constituency map in 2024 for the first time since 1950. This new Cardiff East is clearly the successor to the current Cardiff Central, a name which itself disappears from the map for the first time since 1983. The new Cardiff East contains almost all of the territory directly East of the city centre of the welsh capital and will now be the only one of the four seats in the Welsh capital that does not contain some territory from outside of the city administrative area. Cardiff unitary authority had an entitlement to about 3.5 parliamentary constituencies in the review that will come into force at the 2024 general election, but rather than instigate radical change , they have broadly kept four constituencies based predominantly in the city, and based on current constituencies, and topped up with territory from outside of the city where needed.
The redrawing of the Cardiff seats will see for the first time since 1945 the four compass points used as seat names and the new Cardiff East is definitely the east of the city. Its most western point will be the junction between the South Wales Mainline and the Valley’s network, the most eastern point being the somewhat remote and somewhat upper-class St Mellon’s Golf club, by the time you reach that if travelling on the A48 you definitely don’t feel as though you’re in a city, even if you are on the border between Cardiff and Newport.
Cardiff Central was previously a relatively compact, and significantly undersized. constituency containing the city centre and broadly the area immediately to the East of the centre. Now, the city centre itself, in Cathays ward, is moved into Cardiff South and Penarth so the rest of the Central constituency ( about 47000 electors) are joined with the northern section of the straggly Cardiff South and Penarth seat.( about 25000 electors) in a seat which has a much greater suburban element than Cardiff Central had.
Of the four previous Cardiff seats, Central was by far the smallest in terms of electorate and geographically the smallest in Wales. Cardiff Central was also the only seat in Wales without a farm, something which following the next general election won’t be the case.
Broadly the constituency is now made up of three almost equally populated parts which are divided by 2 main roads, the A48, the main road into Cardiff City centre and the A4232.
To the south of the A48 is a mostly densely populated area with inner city, somewhat deprived, multi cultural characteristics. Here we find Adamsdown, sandwiched between the main railway line and the main road into Cardiff, Plasnewydd and part of Penylan wards. Adamsdown features cheaper more compact terraced housing, 36% of which is private rented, squeezed between Newport Road and the Great Western Mainline and a signifcant proportion of ethnic minorities. Just 26% of adults in Adamsdown have level 4 ( degree level) qualifications compared to 48% in Cyncoed a couple of miles away. 3 of the 5 MSOA areas in Adamsdown ward are in the 10% of most deprived areas of Wales and none are in the least deprived half.
The seat is dissected by the South Wales Main line yet doesn’t contain any railway stations on the line (it does however share Cardiff Queen Street with neighbouring Cardiff South), this is set to change with two new potential stations, Cardiff East and Cardiff Parkway, the later being proposed by the owners of the soon to be developed Hendre Lakes business park.
To the north of the inner ring road, is the 2nd distinct section of the new seat, the northern part of Penylan ward, Cyncoed and Pentwyn wards. This is on the whole a much more affluent part of the city including Roath, home to a mixed community of young professionals, a proportion of south Asians (most visible along City Road) and in parts an increasing student population in recent years. Roath also gives its name to the large park , Roath Park, opened in 1894 , which was one of the first public parks in Cardiff and still retains its classic Victorian atmosphere and layout of characterful linear parks, extending along the Nant Fawr stream. The area around Roath Park and neighbouring Cyncoed are the most affluent parts of the constituency and Cardiff as a whole, with large owner-occupied detached houses abundant and high house prices. In contrast, Llanedeyrn to the east is dominated by 1960’s housing estates featuring a mostly white working-class population. The area around Cycnoed and Roath typically for many higher status city areas, has trended away from the Conservative Party in recent decades. In 1983 and 1987 when they won the Cardiff Central constituency these areas would have been the very core of their vote. Cyncoed and Roath were both safe Conservative wards in the 1980s, both giving the Conservatives over 60% of the vote in the 1983 local elections for instance, but have transitioned into strong areas for the Liberal Democrats these days.
The third and eastern part of this seat, arriving from Cardiff South and Penarth constituency, and across the river Rhymney to the east includes the districts of Llanrumney, Rumney, Trowbridge and St Mellons. These are 1960s & 70s housing estates and are generally Labour leaning. Some of the MSOA’s in Rumney and Llanrumney are quite deprived and overall the area is quite mixed. The river Rhymney was formerly the historic boundary between Glamorgan and Monmouthshire, and so this area of the Welsh capital was arguabally in England until this historic anomaly was rectified in 1974, but you wont find many (if any) local residents who believe they are in England.
Cardiff Council designate the southern boundary of the county (from Ely in the West to Trwobridge in the East) as the “Southern Arc” and note that if that were a county in it’s own right it would be by far the poorest county in Wales. Included in this “Arc” are four wards in this new seat (Trowbridge, Rumney, Llanrumney and Adamsdown) meaning this new seat whilst having significant wealth (million pound houses are not the norm in Cyncoed but are numerous) the seat also contains significant poverty and the social challenges that come with it.
Overall this constituency still has a younger, more studenty demographic than average but it will not be quite as pronounced as Cardiff Central was. It is still in the lowest quartile for people in both of the two oldest age categories with 15.9% of people in 50-64 age group and 14.3% aged over 65 and students still make up 15.7% of the population placing the seat 36th highest in England and Wales. The percentage of adults with degrees varies from 56% in leafy Cyncoed to 27% in Trowbridge. It is 55.1% owner occupied and 25.2% private rented, which makes it slightly more owner occupied and less private rented that Cardiff South and Penarth thanks predominantly to the three new wards arriving in the seat. It is 77.3% white, with the non white population being highest at Adamsdown (28%) and lowest at Llanrumney (13%)
In the 2022 local elections in Cardiff, Labour won 14 councillors to 8 for the Liberal Democrats and none for the Conservatives in the wards now in Cardiff East. The Conservatives highest share of the vote was 30% in Rumney ward and their last win at local elections in any of the wards was in Cyncoed in 2017. In 2022, the Liberal Democrats won affluent Cyncoed easily, Penylan more narrowly and Pentwyn split between Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Labour won all the other wards very comfortably.
The Cardiff Central parliamentary constituency, of which Cardiff East is the successor seat, was recreated for the 1983 election, which the incumbent Conservative MP for Cardiff North Ian Grist won over evenly split opposition. Labour and the Liberals swapped 2nd and 3rd places in a much closer three-way contest in 1987. Grist was defeated by Labour’s Jon Owen Jones in 1992, who held the seat for 13 years but never comfortably, his largest majority was nearly 8,000 over the Liberal Democrats in the 1997 landslide. The Lib Dems gained the seat in 2005, one of a number of ‘student’ seats they gained in an election where the party made abolition of tuition fees and opposition to the Iraq War key policy positions. Jenny Willott served as MP for two terms, losing her seat to Labour in the Lib Dem collapse of 2015. Jo Stevens has been the MP since and currently serves in the Shadow Cabinet. Labour support in the constituency has strengthened since 2015, consolidating its position amongst student voters and pro-Europeans (Stevens herself has stood for anti-Brexit positions in the Commons, defying the Labour Whip on occasions during the 2015 and 2017 Parliaments). At the 2019 election, Cardiff Central returned the largest Labour majority in Wales, a scenario that would have been unthinkable even 10 years ago.
The new boundaries here- the removal of Cathays ward and the addition of Llanrumney, Rumney and Trowbridge would have made a significant difference to this seat in the past. The Liberal Democrats won Cardiff Central by 5593 in 2005 and then by 4576 in 2010. It is far from clear that they would have won on these boundaries in either year. Notionals suggest this would have been on a knife edge between Labour and the Liberal Democrats in both years with perhaps Labour edging home in 2005 and the Liberal Democrats perhaps gaining in 2010. The Liberal Democrats have usually been weak in Llanrumney, Rumney and Trowbridge wards, although they did get one councillor elected in Trowbridge in 2008, and of course the Liberal Democrats would very likely have campaigned harder in those wards in 2005 and 2010 had they been in this constituency at that time.
With the exception of Cyncoed all of the territory in the new seat could be considered natural territory for Labour either by virtue of being solidly working class or filled with modern young professionals as is the case with Plasnewydd and Penylan. The notional result here reduces the Labour majority slightly but this is notionally the second safest Labour seat in Wales and they will have no trouble here in 2024.
