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Post by middleenglander on May 5, 2013 22:42:39 GMT
It looks like 8 by-election and 1 deferred election during the rest of May:
4 by-elections on 9th May
2 on 16th May plus the only deferred election this year
1 on 23rd May and
1 on 30th May.
3 of the by-elections are in District Councils where the previous elections were in 2011
1 in a District Council with annual elections
2 are in Metropolitan Boroughs
1 in a Unitary where the previous elections were in 2011
1 in a London Borough where the previous election was in 2010
The deferred election is in Somerset CC, Coker where the Lib Dems are defending a small pre-boundary change majority over the Conservatives.
Conservatives are defending in 3 of the by-elections, 1 following a death, 1 resignation under a cloud and 1 disqualification following a jail sentence.
Labour are defending 4 seats, 2 arising from deaths and 2 resignations
Greens are not defending a seat following the resignation of their sitting councillor.
Labour are contesting all 8 by-elections, Conservative 7 (not Bolsover), Lib Dems 6 (not Bolsover & Lichfield)
UKIP are contesting 4, Independents 3 along with BNP, Greens and TUSAC 2 each and Residents 1, a total of 35 candidates.
Somerset, Coker has 5 candidates, Con, Lab, LD, Green and UKIP
Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on the Thursday of the elections.
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Post by Robert Waller on May 8, 2013 21:00:35 GMT
BARKING AND DAGENHAM - Longbridge (Labour died)
Syed AHAMMAD (The Labour Party Candidate) 62%
Paul AYER (Conservative) 7%
Bert BEDWELL (UK Independence Party) 18%
Dave CROFT (Liberal Democrats) 9%
Giuseppe DE SANTIS (British National Party) 4%
LEICESTER - Abbey (Labour resigned)
Dipak JOSHI (The Conservative Party Candidate) 10%
Terry MCGREAL (Independent) 6
Vijay RIYAIT (The Labour Party Candidate) 63
John TAYLOR (Liberal Democrat Focus Team) 17
Tessa WARRINGTON (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) 4
OLDHAM - Alexandra (Labour died)
Neil ALLSOPP (The Conservative Party Candidate) 17
Zahid CHAUHAN (Labour Party Candidate) 56
Kevin DAWSON (Liberal Democrats) 11
Derek FLETCHER (UK Independence Party) 13
Miranda MEADOWCROFT (The Green Party) 3
THANET - Cliftonville East (Independent (ex-Conservative) disqualified)
Wendy CHAPLIN (The Conservative Party) 32
Alan CURRIE (Labour Party Candidate) 23
Rozanne DUNCAN (UKIP) 26
Louise OLDFIELD (Independent) 13
Seth PROCTOR (Liberal Democrat) 6
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2013 21:17:44 GMT
BARKING AND DAGENHAM - Longbridge (Labour died)
Syed AHAMMAD (The Labour Party Candidate) 52%
Paul AYER (Conservative) 7%
Bert BEDWELL (UK Independence Party) 31%
Dave CROFT (Liberal Democrats) 9%
Giuseppe DE SANTIS (British National Party) 1%
LEICESTER - Abbey (Labour resigned)
Dipak JOSHI (The Conservative Party Candidate) 10%
Terry MCGREAL (Independent) 6
Vijay RIYAIT (The Labour Party Candidate) 66
John TAYLOR (Liberal Democrat Focus Team) 17
Tessa WARRINGTON (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) 1
OLDHAM - Alexandra (Labour died)
Neil ALLSOPP (The Conservative Party Candidate) 10
Zahid CHAUHAN (Labour Party Candidate) 56
Kevin DAWSON (Liberal Democrats) 8
Derek FLETCHER (UK Independence Party) 25
Miranda MEADOWCROFT (The Green Party) 1
THANET - Cliftonville East (Independent (ex-Conservative) disqualified)
Wendy CHAPLIN (The Conservative Party) 29
Alan CURRIE (Labour Party Candidate) 23
Rozanne DUNCAN (UKIP) 36
Louise OLDFIELD (Independent) 10
Seth PROCTOR (Liberal Democrat) 2
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Post by marksenior on May 9, 2013 6:58:00 GMT
My forecasts
Barking/Dagenham Lab 46 UKIP 28 Con 16 LD 6 BNP 4
Leicester Lab 58 LD 16 UKIP 14 Con 9 Ind 3
Oldham Lab 51 UKIP 18 Con 15 LD 12 Green 4
Thanet UKIP 38 Lab 30 Con 24 LD 5 Ind 3
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Post by Arthur Figgis on May 9, 2013 8:08:57 GMT
Barking & Dagenham, Longbridge: L 52, C 19, UKIP 16, LD 7, BNP 6.
Leicester, Abbey: L 61, C 22, LD 11, Ind 3, TUSC 3.
Oldham, Alexandra: L 42, C 26, LD 17, UKIP 13, G 2.
Thanet, Climville East: UKIP 38, C 32, L 21, LD 5, Ind 4.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 9, 2013 8:20:20 GMT
Barking & Dagenham LB - Longbridge Lab 55.9% Con 24.2% UKIP 12.6% LD 4.1% BNP 3.2% Oldham MB - Alexandra Lab 57.8% Con 16.6% LD 15.8% UKIP 5.6% Grn 4.2% Leicester UA - Abbey Lab 58.2% Con 19.2% LD 14.1% TUSC 4.9% Ind 3.6% Thanet BC - Cliftonville East UKIP 38.6% Con 34.4% Lab 18.8% Ind 4.4% LD 3.8% |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on May 9, 2013 8:28:22 GMT
A bit rushed this week, so not expecting much: Barking & Dagenham: Lab 55.6 UKIP 16.2 Con 13.7 LD 8.7 BNP 5.8 Leicester: Lab 58.8 Ind 15.7 Con 12.6 LD 9.5 TUSC 3.4 Oldham: Lab 48.7 Con 19.9 LD 14.3 UKIP 12.8 Grn 4.3 Thanet: Con 32.1 Lab 24.2 UKIP 19.2 Ind 16.7 LD 7.8 |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 9, 2013 16:39:21 GMT
I hope we will get more than 6 entries. One or two more submitted by email perhaps...
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Post by Robert Waller on May 9, 2013 16:59:10 GMT
I suspect some potential entrants were taken by surprise that we have a May competition starting after the regular local elections. I myself only thought to check a day or so ago.
The only remaining likely entrant who may have sent an e mail is, I would guess, Phildav.
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Post by middleenglander on May 9, 2013 19:19:02 GMT
Just 7 entries this week, with a number of notable absentees.
Arthur Figgis gets 20 additional faults for being 9 minutes late while Mark Senior has 14 additional faults for giving a non-existent UKIP candidate 14% in Leicester.
100% Labour holds in Barking & Dagenham, Leicester and Oldham
5 UKIP gains in Thanet and 2 Conservative holds.
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2013 20:37:38 GMT
Just 7 entries this week, with a number of notable absentees. Arthur Figgis gets 20 additional faults for being 9 minutes late while Mark Senior has 14 additional faults for giving a non-existent UKIP candidate 14% in Leicester. 100% Labour holds in Barking & Dagenham, Leicester and Oldham 5 UKIP gains in Thanet and 2 Conservative holds. Should achieve my highest position yet of seventh then  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 9, 2013 22:25:01 GMT
Maybe not. Looks from Oldham like your tendency to predict absurdly high UKIP votes may be paying off
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Post by middleenglander on May 9, 2013 22:26:11 GMT
Leicester UA, Abbey
tonyotim 26.6 faults, Arthur Figgis 31.0, Pete Whitehead 31.6, PhilDav 37.0, Robert Waller 47.0, Just Looking 53.0, Mark Senior 49.0+14
Oldham MB, Alexandra
Just Looking 32.4 faults, PhilDav 39.0, Mark Senior & Robert Waller 41.0, Pete Whitehead 52.2, tonyotim 56.0, Arthur Figgis 70.0+5
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Post by Philip Davies on May 9, 2013 22:35:19 GMT
I suspect some potential entrants were taken by surprise that we have a May competition starting after the regular local elections. I myself only thought to check a day or so ago. The only remaining likely entrant who may have sent an e mail is, I would guess, Phildav. Your guess was correct! BARKING AND DAGENHAM - Longbridge Syed AHAMMAD (The Labour Party Candidate) 61 Paul AYER (Conservative) 15 Bert BEDWELL (UK Independence Party) 15 Dave CROFT (Liberal Democrats) 4 Giuseppe DE SANTIS (British National Party) 5 LEICESTER - Abbey Dipak JOSHI (The Conservative Party Candidate) 18 Terry MCGREAL (Independent) 5 Vijay RIYAIT (The Labour Party Candidate) 55 John TAYLOR (Liberal Democrat Focus Team) 20 Tessa WARRINGTON (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) 2 OLDHAM - Alexandra Neil ALLSOPP (The Conservative Party Candidate) 15 Zahid CHAUHAN (Labour Party Candidate) 60 Kevin DAWSON (Liberal Democrats) 12 Derek FLETCHER (UK Independence Party) 10 Miranda MEADOWCROFT (The Green Party) 3 THANET - Cliftonville East Wendy CHAPLIN (The Conservative Party) 26 Alan CURRIE (Labour Party Candidate) 21 Rozanne DUNCAN (UKIP) 31 Louise OLDFIELD (Independent) 18 Seth PROCTOR (Liberal Democrat) 4 |
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Post by middleenglander on May 9, 2013 22:57:32 GMT
Barking & Dagenham LB, Longbridge
PhilDav 15.0, Robert Waller 16.5, tonyotim 23.4, Pete Whitehead 30.0, Just Looking 35.0, Arthur Figgis 31.0+5, Mark Senior 36.5
Leicester UA, Abbey
tonyotim 26.6 faults, Pete Whitehead 31.6, Arthur Figgis 31.0+5, PhilDav 37.0, Robert Waller 47.0, Just Looking 53.0, Mark Senior 49.0+14
Oldham MB, Alexandra
Just Looking 32.4 faults, PhilDav 39.0, Mark Senior & Robert Waller 41.0, Pete Whitehead 52.2, tonyotim 56.0, Arthur Figgis 70.0+5
Thanet BC, Cliftonville East
Pete Whitehead 11.6, Just Looking 12.4, Arthur Figgis 10.2+5, Mark Senior 25.4, PhilDav 28.4, Robert Waller 29.2+10, tonyotim 42.8+10
and subject to verification
119.3 PhilDav
125.3 Pete Whitehead
132.8 Just Looking
143.7 Robert Waller
158.8 tonyotim
162.2 Arthur Figgis
165.8 Mark Senior
Objections please by 5 pm Saturday
3 contests next week including a deferred election in Somerset. Predictions on this thread by 9.00am Thursday.
I am having a few days by the sea-side so if the Deputy Returning Officer could officiate please until we are back Saturday evening.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on May 10, 2013 8:49:57 GMT
Congratulations to Phil for the week. I realised yesterday that I'd completely ballsed up Thanet bu doing it in too much of a rush.
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Post by Philip Davies on May 10, 2013 9:09:05 GMT
Congratulations to Phil for the week. I realised yesterday that I'd completely ballsed up Thanet bu doing it in too much of a rush. Thank you. I am surprised I did so well considering I spent the fraction of time doing it that I normally spend. |
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Post by Robert Waller on May 15, 2013 22:48:29 GMT
ROTHERHAM - Rawmarsh (Labour resigned)
George BALDWIN (British National Party) 7%
Andrew GRAY (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) 2
Mohammed MEHARBAN (Liberal Democrats) 2
Martyn PARKER (The Conservative Party Candidate) 6
Caven VINES (UK Independence Party) 24
Lisa WRIGHT (Labour Party Candidate) 59
SOMERSET - Coker (deferred from 2 May due to death of UKIP candidate)
Vhie BOXALL (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 29
Peter BYSOUTH (Green Party) 4
Marcus FYSH (The Conservative Party Candidate) 29
Murray SHEPSTONE (The Labour Party Candidate) 8
Ian STEPHEN (Liberal Democrats) 30
WEYMOUTH AND PORTLAND - Melcombe Regis (Conservative died)
Andrew MANVELL (The Conservative Party Candidate) 30
Jon ORRELL (Green Party) 13
Stewart PEARSON (Labour Party Candidate) 16
Steph TAYLOR (Liberal Democrat) 31
Jim WILLIAMSON (Independent) 10
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2013 6:09:28 GMT
ROTHERHAM - Rawmarsh (Labour resigned)
George BALDWIN (British National Party) 2
Andrew GRAY (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) 15
Mohammed MEHARBAN (Liberal Democrats) 3
Martyn PARKER (The Conservative Party Candidate) 6
Caven VINES (UK Independence Party) 24
Lisa WRIGHT (Labour Party Candidate) 50
SOMERSET - Coker (deferred from 2 May due to death of UKIP candidate)
Vhie BOXALL (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 29.5
Peter BYSOUTH (Green Party) 6.5
Marcus FYSH (The Conservative Party Candidate) 20
Murray SHEPSTONE (The Labour Party Candidate) 15
Ian STEPHEN (Liberal Democrats) 29
WEYMOUTH AND PORTLAND - Melcombe Regis (Conservative died)
Andrew MANVELL (The Conservative Party Candidate) 30
Jon ORRELL (Green Party) 15
Stewart PEARSON (Labour Party Candidate) 22
Steph TAYLOR (Liberal Democrat) 25
Jim WILLIAMSON (Independent) 8
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Post by Arthur Figgis on May 16, 2013 6:25:36 GMT
Rotherham: L 46.4, UKIP 29.4, C 11.4, BNP 5.4, LD 4.1, TUSC 3.3
Somerset: LD 35.2, C 30.6, UKIP 19.4, L 10.4, G 4.4
Weymouth and Portland: (to follow!)
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