Prediction Competition - February 2024

[Tony Otim]

Minster & Woodmansley: LD 40.0; Lab 27.2; Con 26.3; Grn 6.5
Tranby: LD 52.5; Lab 20.4; Con 19.1; Grn 8.0
Central & Northgate: Lab 49.8; Con 32.4; LD 17.8
Henfield: Grn 37.2; Con 32.2; Lab 23.2; LD 7.4
Southwater North: LD 45.8; Con 38.3; Lab 8.4; Grn 7.5

[andrewp]

East Riding. Minster and Woodmansey. LD 43 Lab 27 Con 25 Green 5
East Riding, Tranby. LD 50, Lab 24 Con 18 Green 8
Great Yarmouth. Central & Northgate. Lab 58 Con 30 LD 12
Horsham. Henfield. Green 45 Con 31 Lab 16 LD 8
Horsham, Southwater North, LD 46 Con 35 Lab 11 Green 8

[carolus]

East Riding of Yorkshire, Minster & Woodmansey:
LD 45, Con 25, Lab 25, Green 5

East Riding of Yorkshire, Tranby:
LD 55, Con 18, Lab 18, Green 9

Great Yarmouth, Central & Northgate:
Lab 55, Con 33, LD 12

Horsham, Henfield:
Green 45, Con 30, Lab 15, LD 10

Horsham, Southwater North:
LD 50, Con 30, Lab 10, Green 10

[manchesterman]

Minster & Woodmansley: LD 43; Lab 26; Con 24; Green 7

Tranby: LD 54; Lab 20; Con 17; Green 9

Central & Northgate: Lab 51; Con 35; LD 14

Henfield: Green 40; Con 30; Lab 20; LD 10

Southwater North: LD 48; Con 32; Lab 11; Green 9

[corradino]

East Riding, Minster & Woodmansley: Lab 36, LD 35, Con 22, Green 7.

East Riding, Tranby: LD 49, Lab 22, Con 19, Green 10.

Gt. Yarmouth, Central & Northgate: Lab 47, Con 40, LD 13.

Horsham, Henfield: Green 40, Con 33, Lab 22, LD 5.

Horsham, Southwater North: LD 42, Con 39, Green 10, Lab 9.

[Robert Waller]

East Riding, Minster and Woodmansley. LD 43 Lab 28 Con 24 Green 5

East Riding, Tranby. LD 56 Lab 25 Con 14 Green 5

Great Yarmouth, Central & Northgate. Lab 58 Con 31 LD 11

Horsham, Henfield. Green 39 Con 38 Lab 15 LD 8

Horsham, Southwater North, LD 51 Con 30 Lab 10 Green 9

[peterl]

East Riding, Minster and Woodmansley. LD 45 Lab 31 Con 18 Green 6
East Riding, Tranby. LD 56 Lab 27 Con 10 Green 7
Great Yarmouth, Central & Northgate. Lab 62 Con 24 LD 14
Horsham, Henfield. Green 42 Con 34 Lab 18 LD 6
Horsham, Southwater North, LD 55 Con 20 Lab 14 Green 11

[rightleaning]

East Riding, Minster and Woodmansley. LD 44, Lab 29, Con 19, Green 8
East Riding, Tranby. LD 55, Lab 26, Con 11, Green 8
Great Yarmouth, Central & Northgate. Lab 54, Con 30, LD 16
Horsham, Henfield. Green 44, Con 38, Lab 14, LD 4
Horsham, Southwater North, LD 57, Con 20, Green 14, Lab 9

[iainbhx]

East Riding of Yorkshire UA, Minster and Woodmansley: LDm 40 Lab 27 Con 26 Grn 7
East Riding of Yorkshire UA, Tranby: LDm 54 Lab 28 Con 12 Grn 6
Great Yarmouth BC, Central & Northgate: Lab 53 Con 32 LDm 15
Horsham DC, Henfield: Con 39 Grn 34 Lab 20 LDm 7
Horsham DC, Southwater North: LDm 45 Con 35 Grn 12 Lab 8

[robbienicoll]

11 entries to close the month, missing johnloony, all on time and correct.

Minster and Woodmansley, East Riding of Yorkshire: 10 Liberal Democrat hold, majorities ranging from 12.8% (Tony Otim) to 20% (carolus). Corradino Labour gain with 1% majority.

Tranby, East Riding of Yorkshire: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 26% (andrewp and iainbhx) to 37% (carolus).

Central and Northgate, Great Yarmouth: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 7% (corradino) to 38% (peterl).

Henfield, Horsham: 10 Green gain from Independent, majorities ranging from 1% (Robert Waller) to 20% (kevinf). Iainbhx Conservative gain with 5% majority.

Southwater North, Horsham: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 3% (corradino) to 37% (Right Leaning).

Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11XdFfiMhO96nFrX2rhrxz6bsZRVOd0xBIzqkyD_pmyU/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Robert Waller]

Congrats to andrewp for a win in a super-tight blanket finish for the week!

iainbhx can be compensated for finishing 0.1 fault behind for the week by winning the month by a larger margin.

I would also like to say that iainbhx, as the last to post this week, could have effectively ensured his victory for the month by noting my predictions as the main challenger and entering his accordingly - but he did not, instead backing his judgment: for example being the only one to predict a C win in Henfield.
I think this is a good example of 'playing the game in the best spirit' and that thus he doubly deserves his victory.



+ Form Guide now updated

[iainbhx]

Mar 1, 2024 13:33:34 GMT Robert Waller said:

I would also like to say that iainbhx, as the last to post this week, could have effectively ensured his victory for the month by noting my predictions as the main challenger and entering his accordingly - but he did not, instead backing his judgment: for example being the only one to predict a C win in Henfield.
I think this is a good example of 'playing the game in the best spirit' and that thus he doubly deserves his victory.

Never even crossed my mind to be honest. I'm often the last to predict, it's usually between myself and Right Leaning who I suspect is also a habitual early riser but it's always my predictions, not an attempt to game the system. I was convinced that Labour would hold enough votes in Henfield to keep the Tories in the game.

[batman]

I am not lacking in competitiveness, I love winning at cricket & elections for example, but like Iain I can't conceive of gaming the system in the prediction competition. We're supposed to be predicting the result not trying to do another contributor down.

[rightleaning]

Mar 2, 2024 16:37:13 GMT iainbhx said:

Mar 1, 2024 13:33:34 GMT Robert Waller said:

I would also like to say that iainbhx , as the last to post this week, could have effectively ensured his victory for the month by noting my predictions as the main challenger and entering his accordingly - but he did not, instead backing his judgment: for example being the only one to predict a C win in Henfield.
I think this is a good example of 'playing the game in the best spirit' and that thus he doubly deserves his victory.

Never even crossed my mind to be honest. I'm often the last to predict, it's usually between myself and Right Leaning who I suspect is also a habitual early riser but it's always my predictions, not an attempt to game the system. I was convinced that Labour would hold enough votes in Henfield to keep the Tories in the game.

Yes I am an early riser, but also have an alarm on my phone, in case I forget.

I always copy someone else's format to save re-typing, but then change the numbers.