Prediction Competition - February 2024

[peterl]

DACORUM DC; Tring West & Rural: Lib Dem 47, Green 20, Con 19, Lab 14
EAST HAMPSHIRE DC; Four Marks & Medstead: Lib Dem 56, Con 44
KINGSTON-UPON-HULL UA; Avenue: Lib Dem 39, Lab 35, Ind 12, Green 9, Con 5
NEATH PORT TALBOT UA; Briton Ferry East: Lab 49, Ind 43, Green 8
NEATH PORT TALBOT, Rhos: Lab 35, Plaid 32, Ind 15, Green 10, LD 8

[batman]

DACORUM, Tring W. & Rural : LD 45 C 26 Green 21 Lab 8

E.HAMPSHIRE, 4 Marks & Medstead : C 52 LD 48

KINGSTON-UPON-HULL, Avenue : Lab 35 LD 35 Green 17 C 8 Ind 5. Lab win

NEATH PORT TALBOT, Briton Ferry E. : Lab 51 Ind 42 Green 7

NEATH PORT TALBOT, Rhos : Lab 42 PC 36 Ind 12 LD 6 Green 4

[Tony Otim]

Dacorum: LD 48.2; Con 23.3; Grn 21.0; Lab 7.5
East Hampshire: LD 58.2; Con 41.8
Hull: LD 43.9; Lab 41.8; Grn 7.8; Whale 4.0; Con 2.5
Neath BFE: Lab 49.1; Pemberton 44.0; Grn 6.9
Neath Rhos: PC 35.2; Lab 32.9; LD 17.1; Woolford 12.5; Grn 2.3

[andrewp]

Dacorum. Tring West and Rural. LD 55 Con 23 Green 14 Lab 8
East Hampshire. Four Marks and Medstead. LD 61 Con 39
Hull. Avenue, Lab 44 LD 39 Green 8 Ind 6 Con 3
Neath. Briton Ferry East. Ind 50 Lab 45 Green 5
Neath, Rhos. PC 36, Lab 31 Woolford 22: LD 8 Green 3

[Robert Waller]

DACORUM DC; Tring West & Rural: Lib Dem 54, Green 10, Con 27, Lab 9

EAST HAMPSHIRE DC; Four Marks & Medstead: Lib Dem 61, Con 39

KINGSTON-UPON-HULL UA; Avenue: Lib Dem 43, Lab 42, Ind 3, Green 9, Con 3

NEATH PORT TALBOT UA; Briton Ferry East: Lab 44, Ind 50, Green 6

NEATH PORT TALBOT, Rhos: Lab 32, Plaid 37, Ind 21, Green 3, LD 7

[carolus]

Dacorum, Tring West & Rural:
LD 50, Con 25, Green 15, Lab 10

East Hampshire, Four Marks & Medstead:
LD 60, Con 40

Kingston-upon-Hull, Avenue:
Lab 45, LD 40, Green 8, Con 5, Ind 2

Neath Port Talbot, Briton Ferry East:
Ind 50, Lab 45, Green 5

Neath Port Talbot, Rhos:
PC 40, Lab 35, LD 15, Green 5, Ind 5

[iainbhx]

Dacorum DC, Tring West and Rural: LDm 54 Con 25 Grn 11 Lab 10
East Hampshire DC, Four Marks and Medstead: LDm 60 Con 40
Kingston-upon-Hull UA, Avenue: LDm 43 Lab 41 Grn 9 Ind 4 Con 3
Neath-Port Talbot WUA, Briton Ferry East: Lab 48 Ind 44 Grn 8
Neath-Port Talbot WUA, Rhos: PC 36 Lab 28 Ind 22 LDm 11 Grn 3

[manchesterman]

DACORUM DC; Tring West & Rural: Lib Dem 52, Con 25, Green 14, Lab 9

EAST HAMPSHIRE DC; Four Marks & Medstead: Lib Dem 59, Con 41

KINGSTON-UPON-HULL UA; Avenue: Lib Dem 44, Lab 40, Green 9, Con 5, Ind 2

NEATH PORT TALBOT UA; Briton Ferry East: Lab 48, Ind 47, Green 5

NEATH PORT TALBOT, Rhos: PC 39, Lab 35, Ind 14, Lib Dem 7, Green 5

[kevinf]

Dacorum
LD 55 Con 20, Green 17, Lab 8
East Hants
LD 61, Con 39
Kingston Upon Hull
Lab 40, LD 38, Green 10, Ind 7, Con 5
Neath PT - BFE
Lab 48, Ind 44, Green 8
Neath PT Rhos
PC 38, Lab 34, Ind 15, LD 8, Green 5

[corradino]

Dacorum, Tring West & Rural: LD 48, Con 23, Green 19, Lab 10.

E. Hants, Four Marks & Medstead: LD 55, Con 45.

Hull, Avenue: LD 46, Lab 42, Green 7, Ind 3, Con 2.

Neath Port Talbot, Briton Ferry East: Lab 50, Ind 40, Green 10.

Neath Port Talbot, Rhos: PC 44, Lab 39, Ind 9, LD 5, Green 3.

[rightleaning]

Dacorum. Tring West and Rural. LD 58, Con 21, Green 15, Lab 6
East Hampshire. Four Marks and Medstead. LD 54, Con 46
Hull. Avenue, LD 42, Lab 39, Green 11, Ind 4, Con 4
Neath. Briton Ferry East. Ind 54, Lab 41, Green 5
Neath, Rhos. PC 34, Lab 32, Woolford 20: LD 9, Green 5

[johnloony]

Oh smellypoo... I completely forgot about the predictions this week. I suppose I've just been thinking about Rochdale too much. I won't even bother doing a late prediction, because the last two weeks mine were rubbish anyway.

[johnloony]

Dacorum LD 60 Con 20 Lab 10 Grn 10
East Hamps LD 60 Con 40
Hull Lab 50 LD 40 Con 7 Grn 7 Ind 6
NPT Ind 50 Lab 40 Grn 10
NPT PC 50 Lab 30 LD 10 Grn. 5 Ind 5

Do I get penalty points for being slightly later than the deadline?

[robbienicoll]

12 entries this week, with casualobserver missing. All correct, but unfortunately johnloony was out of time. I've included his predictions for the weekly comparison.

Tring West and Rural, Dacorum: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 19% (batman) to 40% (johnloony).

Four Marks and Medstead, East Hampshire: 11 Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 8% (Right Leaning) to 22% (andrewp, kevinf and Robert Waller). Batman Conservative gain with 4% majority.

Avenue, Kingston-upon-Hull: 7 Liberal Democrat gain from Labour, with andrewp, batman, carolus, johnloony and kevinf Labour hold.

Britton Ferry East, Neath Port Talbot: 7 Labour gain from Independent, with andrewp, carolus, johnloony, Right Leaning and Robert Waller Independent (Pemberton) win.

Rhos, Neath Port Talbot: 10 Plaid Cymru hold, with batman and peterl Labour gain.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/198OSdwD4xmABFeuTm72c6tGd_2tZsjN4WXavv7qnQ_M/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Robert Waller]

Congrats, I think, to iainbhx - for a win for the week and assumption of the monthly lead.

I shall await the complete official results, but think manchesterman may have finished second for the week.

[manchesterman]

I know I did well in 4 of the 5 seats. NPT Rhos Ward was a wipeout..but probably not just for me

[johnloony]

Bucks FCBB: LD 45 Con 35 Lab 20
Bucks: Ind 41 Con 38 LD 13 Lab 8
DD Bakewell: Con 30 Lab 31 Grn 19 LD 10 Ind 6 Ref 2
DD Norbury: Con 44 Lab 22 LD 18 Grn 16
Folkestone: Lab 30 Con 20 LD 10 Grn 5 Ref 8 Evans 15 Meyers 2 Peacock 5 Young 5
Borders: Con 52 SNP 16 Lab 12 LD 8 Grn 8 SEF 4
Wilts: LD 40 Con 30 Lab 18 Grn 12

[peterl]

Bucks Farnham Common: LD 41 Con 37 Lab 22
Bucks Hazlemere: LD 33 Ind 31 Con 26 Lab 10
Derbyshire Dales Bakewell: Lab 34 Con 26 Grn 15 LD 14 Ind 7 Ref 4
Derbyshire Dales Norbury: Lab 32 Con 30 LD 22 Grn 16
Folkestone: Lab 26 Evans 20 Con 15 Grn 10 LD 8 Young 7 Ref 6 Peacock 5 Meyers 3
Milton Keynes: Lab 35 Con 25 LD 20 Ind 12 Grn 8
Borders: Con 37 SNP 22 Lab 18 LD 10 Grn 8 SEF 5 (con win)
Wilts: LD 47 Con 30 Lab 15 Grn 8

[kevinf]

Bucks Farnham Common
LD 42, Con 40, Lab 18
Bucks Hazlemere
Ind 42, Con 39, LD 12, Lab 7
Derby Dales Bakewell
Lab 35, Con 28, Green 14, LD 12, Ind 6, Ref 5
Derby Dales Norbury
Con 48, Lab 22, LD 17, Green 13
Folkestone & Hythe
Lab 25, Con 23, Ind Evans 21, Green 9, LD 8, Ind Meyes 5, Ref 4, Ind Peacock 3, ND Young 2
Milton Keynes
Lab 47, Con 36, LD 8, Green 5, Ind 4
Scots Borders
Con 40, SNP 34, LD 10, Green 8, Lab 6, SEF 2
Wiltshire
LD 40, Con 35, Lab 13, Green 12

[andrewp]

Feb 19, 2024 20:52:30 GMT johnloony said:

Bucks FCBB: LD 45 Con 35 Lab 20
Bucks: Ind 41 Con 38 LD 13 Lab 8
DD Bakewell: Con 30 Lab 31 Grn 19 LD 10 Ind 6 Ref 2
DD Norbury: Con 44 Lab 22 LD 18 Grn 16
Folkestone: Lab 30 Con 20 LD 10 Grn 5 Ref 8 Evans 15 Meyers 2 Peacock 5 Young 5
Borders: Con 52 SNP 16 Lab 12 LD 8 Grn 8 SEF 4
Wilts: LD 40 Con 30 Lab 18 Grn 12

You have omitted the Milton Keynes contest.