Post by Robert Waller on Jan 30, 2024 0:31:30 GMT
This includes some material by greenhert and peterl, though the introduction is transferred from the latter’s Portsmouth North profile. Most is by me. There may well be insights and corrections that can be offered by those more local than any of the aforementioned, but if folk don’t write the profiles themselves …. But improvements welcome all the same.
Portsmouth is a coastal city of 208,000 people (in the 2021 census) and forms the eastern end of a built up area in south-central Hampshire. Portsmouth may have existed as a city since as early as 1180. The “world’s greatest naval port” in its day, Horatio Nelson’s flagship HMS Victory can still be seen in the city’s historic dockyard. The city remains a major base for the Royal Navy as well as an important freight and passenger port to this day. Portsmouth was also the birthplace of writer Charles Dickens, whose house is now open as a museum, and engineer Isambard Kingdom Brunel. The city is also home to both Anglican and Catholic cathedrals, a university, and the Spinnaker Tower – one of Britain’s tallest manmade structures. Most of these well known landmarks are in the Portsmouth South constituency.
Portsmouth South was created in 1918 by a split in the formerly double-member Portsmouth constituency. Portsmouth South used to be a safe Conservative seat, but a 1984 by-election upon the death of Ralph Bonner Pink changed all that, and commenced a dramatic series of events involving victories by three different parties. Firstly it was gained in that byelection by the SDP's Mike Hancock, who had been a Labour, then SDP councillor in Fratton. Mr Hancock was unseated by only 205 votes in 1987 by David Martin, and Mr Martin held on again to Hancock's next challenge, this time by the almost-as-narrow margin of 242 votes. Hancock recaptured it in 1997 during the Conservative meltdown and held it for the next 18 years.
In 2014 he resigned from the Liberal Democrats after a civil suit alleging sexual harassment was brought by a constituent of his; he contested the seat as an Independent in 2015 but received a derisory 716 votes; that year the Conservatives' Flick Drummond captured it. Surprisingly in 2017 she was defeated by Stephen Morgan, who became the first ever Labour MP for Portsmouth South. Against the national trend, Mr Morgan managed a further 3.9% swing against the Conservatives due to tactical voting from the Liberal Democrats, increasing his 2019 majority to almost 3 1/2 times that of his 2017 majority.
Like Portsmouth North there are no boundary changes at all in the 2023 review. The electorate was within quota when the Commission commenced its review, and there is little scope for adjustments here, tucked away in the confines of the southern end of Portsea Island. Portsmouth South is the "harbour end" of the city of Portsmouth, and contains the famous Royal Navy Portsmouth Base dockyard, the seaside resort of Southsea, and Portsmouth University with its main campus in the heart of the city. Portsmouth South is slightly poorer than its neighbour Portsmouth North overall and also has greater income inequalities; parts of Fratton in particular have areas of significant deprivation by south east England standards. In the detailed 2021 census statistics, Fratton West MSA recorded a 76% household deprivation rate (in at least one dimension) along with 74% in Landport just north of the city centre and 65% in Somers Town (city centre south). These figures correlate with low owner occupation rates. Overall, less than 43% of all housing in South comes into that category. 20%, well above average, is social rented, mostly in the centre: Fratton West 68%, Landport 64%, Portsea 50%, Somers Town 46%, most of these post war redevelopment following the devastating bombing raids.
pcc.dynamicmaps.co.uk/MapThatPublic/Default.aspx
But the really striking tenure finding is the 37% across Portsmouth South that is private rented. This is focused in Southsea: 51% in Southsea Fawcett Road MSOA, 49% in Southsea West, 43% in Southsea Waverley Road (southern Southsea), 40% in Southsea Haslemere Road (east). But the figure is also very high by national standards in the terraces in the old parts of Fratton, such as Fratton Kingston (40%) and Fratton North (36%).The only majority owned areas are in the east of the constituency: Milton (68%), Eastney (59%) and eastern Southsea, the Prince Albert Road MSOA (59%).
The tenure figures also relate to Portsmouth South’s high student population. Over 20% overall which places it just outside the top 20 in England and Wales. The concentration of full time students increases as one moves south west within the seat, and in Portsea Island. In the city centre Portsea MSOA, 60% of those occupied are full time pursuing studies. So are over 34% in Somers Town, and over 32% in Southsea Fawcett Road. There are relatively few in professional and managerial occupations within the seat, but these are most to be found close to the south coast, with 41% in Old Portsmouth and Southsea Common (south west Southsea) the highest, 40% in Eastney in the south east of the seat, and within southern Southsea (also 40%). The most routine and semi-routine occupations are in the inner city parts not dominated by students, such as Fratton West (36%) and Landport (35%).
Many of the wards are characterised by the tight knit terraces reflecting the tight pressures on housing in Portsea Island – the population density of the Portsmouth South constituency in the figures published by the House of Commons library in 2018 was 8,604 people per square kilometre, exceeded by 22 constituencies in Inner London, the most being 16.2% in Westminster North, but not even approached by any seat elsewhere in England and Wales.
At a local level Portsmouth South has become a stronghold for the Liberal Democrats. For example in the most recent set of Portsmouth City Council elections, in May 2023, the LDs won five of the seven wards within the constituency. The only one they lost to another national party on that occasion was St Jude, which covers the western part of Southsea, where Labour won for the fourth time in five years’ worth of contests (since 2018). Before then St Jude had been a Lib Dem – Conservative marginal since 2003, and before that safely Tory – thus reflecting the electoral progress of the constituency as a whole better than any other ward. Looking at the other wards, St Thomas (Old Portsmouth and the southern end of the port including Portsmouth Harbour Ferry Terminal) has been pretty much solid for the Lib Dems, as since 2003 they missed out only once, when the Tories won in 2015. Milton similarly has a solid LD history, in its case since 1990 with just two Conservative interventions (2000 and 2008).
Eastney & Craneswater, which covers the bulk of the south coast of Portsea Island, has been the best for the Tories in the medium term, with 7 victories in the last 14 contests since 2006, but in May 2023 not only did they lose the seat, but slipped to third place behind Labour as well. In Central Southsea ward there are currently one LD (elected in 2023, of course) and two Labour representatives. Fratton has the most complex electoral history at municipal level, having returned Liberal Democrats five times in the past 10 years but also Labour twice and UKIP once, in their strong year of 2014 when they won six wards in Portsmouth, though only two in the South constituency. (It is Milton ward that actually includes the stadium of Portsmouth FC, even though it is named Fratton Park). The other one was Charles Dickens ward, covering the city centre and the naval dockyard, which after 2014 trended to Labour solidly before 2023, when there was a rare Independent win in Portsmouth; though it should be said that the victor, Cal Corkery, was actually the incumbent, having been elected as Labour but expelled from the party in January 2023.
Overall, therefore, the May 2023 local elections within the constituency add up to a Liberal Democrat lead, with a total share of the vote of 39.1%, compared with 34.3% for Labour (and 12.7% Conservative, 8.7% Independent and 5.3% Green). However for a number of reasons this cannot be interpreted as a prediction of a Lib Dem gain, or even of a significant challenge to the Labour MP Stephen Morgan at a general election in 2024. For a start, nearly half the Independent vote was cast for the left wing ex-Labour candidate in Charles Dickens ward. More significantly, May 2023 was an exceptionally good year in local electoral politics for the Portsmouth LDs, as they rose to a number of city councillors they have nit surpassed since 2014. In May 2022, for example, Labour had won four of the seven wards within the South division. Most important of all, though, is the disparity between the performance of the Liberal Democrats in council and parliamentary elections. In May 2019 they had won Central Southsea, Fratton, Milton and St Thomas wards, while Labour had only come first in Charles Dickens and St Jude (and the Tory won in Eastney & Craneswater), yet in the general election a few months later Labour’s share was 48.6% and the LD was third with 11.4%.
Portsmouth South had had a very interesting electoral history, and is still very competitive in council elections. However the Liberal Democrats success at municipal level is unlikely to translate to parliamentary politics at a time when Labour are the incumbents as far as the Commons is concerned and also heading for a likely general election victory. Should Labour indeed enter government and eventually run into the inevitable choppy waters, this fighting constituency, this home of the mighty Navy, might well again see a battle royal and an uncertain outcome.
2021 Census
Age 65+ 13.0% 493/575
Owner occupied 42.9% 535/575
Private rented 36.7% 24/575
Social rented 20.4% 137/575
White 80.5% 400/575
Black 4.7% 142/575
Asian 8.8% 177/575
Managerial & professional 27.4% 439/575
Routine & Semi-routine 21.5% 362/575
Degree level 33.0% 263/575
No qualifications 15.4% 407/575
Students 20.5% 21/575
General Election 2019: Portsmouth South
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Stephen Morgan 23,068 48.6 +7.6
Conservative Donna Jones 17,705 37.3 -0.3
Liberal Democrats Gerald Vernon-Jackson 5,418 11.4 -5.9
Brexit Party John Kennedy 994 2.1
Justice & Anti-Corruption Steven George 240 0.5
Lab Majority 5,363 11.3 +7.9
2019 electorate 74,186
Turnout 47,425 63.9 0.0
Labour hold
Swing 3.9 C to Lab
Boundary Changes
None – unchanged seat
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_350_Portsmouth%20South_Landscape.pdf
2019 notional result
N/A as no boundary changes
Portsmouth is a coastal city of 208,000 people (in the 2021 census) and forms the eastern end of a built up area in south-central Hampshire. Portsmouth may have existed as a city since as early as 1180. The “world’s greatest naval port” in its day, Horatio Nelson’s flagship HMS Victory can still be seen in the city’s historic dockyard. The city remains a major base for the Royal Navy as well as an important freight and passenger port to this day. Portsmouth was also the birthplace of writer Charles Dickens, whose house is now open as a museum, and engineer Isambard Kingdom Brunel. The city is also home to both Anglican and Catholic cathedrals, a university, and the Spinnaker Tower – one of Britain’s tallest manmade structures. Most of these well known landmarks are in the Portsmouth South constituency.
Portsmouth South was created in 1918 by a split in the formerly double-member Portsmouth constituency. Portsmouth South used to be a safe Conservative seat, but a 1984 by-election upon the death of Ralph Bonner Pink changed all that, and commenced a dramatic series of events involving victories by three different parties. Firstly it was gained in that byelection by the SDP's Mike Hancock, who had been a Labour, then SDP councillor in Fratton. Mr Hancock was unseated by only 205 votes in 1987 by David Martin, and Mr Martin held on again to Hancock's next challenge, this time by the almost-as-narrow margin of 242 votes. Hancock recaptured it in 1997 during the Conservative meltdown and held it for the next 18 years.
In 2014 he resigned from the Liberal Democrats after a civil suit alleging sexual harassment was brought by a constituent of his; he contested the seat as an Independent in 2015 but received a derisory 716 votes; that year the Conservatives' Flick Drummond captured it. Surprisingly in 2017 she was defeated by Stephen Morgan, who became the first ever Labour MP for Portsmouth South. Against the national trend, Mr Morgan managed a further 3.9% swing against the Conservatives due to tactical voting from the Liberal Democrats, increasing his 2019 majority to almost 3 1/2 times that of his 2017 majority.
Like Portsmouth North there are no boundary changes at all in the 2023 review. The electorate was within quota when the Commission commenced its review, and there is little scope for adjustments here, tucked away in the confines of the southern end of Portsea Island. Portsmouth South is the "harbour end" of the city of Portsmouth, and contains the famous Royal Navy Portsmouth Base dockyard, the seaside resort of Southsea, and Portsmouth University with its main campus in the heart of the city. Portsmouth South is slightly poorer than its neighbour Portsmouth North overall and also has greater income inequalities; parts of Fratton in particular have areas of significant deprivation by south east England standards. In the detailed 2021 census statistics, Fratton West MSA recorded a 76% household deprivation rate (in at least one dimension) along with 74% in Landport just north of the city centre and 65% in Somers Town (city centre south). These figures correlate with low owner occupation rates. Overall, less than 43% of all housing in South comes into that category. 20%, well above average, is social rented, mostly in the centre: Fratton West 68%, Landport 64%, Portsea 50%, Somers Town 46%, most of these post war redevelopment following the devastating bombing raids.
pcc.dynamicmaps.co.uk/MapThatPublic/Default.aspx
But the really striking tenure finding is the 37% across Portsmouth South that is private rented. This is focused in Southsea: 51% in Southsea Fawcett Road MSOA, 49% in Southsea West, 43% in Southsea Waverley Road (southern Southsea), 40% in Southsea Haslemere Road (east). But the figure is also very high by national standards in the terraces in the old parts of Fratton, such as Fratton Kingston (40%) and Fratton North (36%).The only majority owned areas are in the east of the constituency: Milton (68%), Eastney (59%) and eastern Southsea, the Prince Albert Road MSOA (59%).
The tenure figures also relate to Portsmouth South’s high student population. Over 20% overall which places it just outside the top 20 in England and Wales. The concentration of full time students increases as one moves south west within the seat, and in Portsea Island. In the city centre Portsea MSOA, 60% of those occupied are full time pursuing studies. So are over 34% in Somers Town, and over 32% in Southsea Fawcett Road. There are relatively few in professional and managerial occupations within the seat, but these are most to be found close to the south coast, with 41% in Old Portsmouth and Southsea Common (south west Southsea) the highest, 40% in Eastney in the south east of the seat, and within southern Southsea (also 40%). The most routine and semi-routine occupations are in the inner city parts not dominated by students, such as Fratton West (36%) and Landport (35%).
Many of the wards are characterised by the tight knit terraces reflecting the tight pressures on housing in Portsea Island – the population density of the Portsmouth South constituency in the figures published by the House of Commons library in 2018 was 8,604 people per square kilometre, exceeded by 22 constituencies in Inner London, the most being 16.2% in Westminster North, but not even approached by any seat elsewhere in England and Wales.
At a local level Portsmouth South has become a stronghold for the Liberal Democrats. For example in the most recent set of Portsmouth City Council elections, in May 2023, the LDs won five of the seven wards within the constituency. The only one they lost to another national party on that occasion was St Jude, which covers the western part of Southsea, where Labour won for the fourth time in five years’ worth of contests (since 2018). Before then St Jude had been a Lib Dem – Conservative marginal since 2003, and before that safely Tory – thus reflecting the electoral progress of the constituency as a whole better than any other ward. Looking at the other wards, St Thomas (Old Portsmouth and the southern end of the port including Portsmouth Harbour Ferry Terminal) has been pretty much solid for the Lib Dems, as since 2003 they missed out only once, when the Tories won in 2015. Milton similarly has a solid LD history, in its case since 1990 with just two Conservative interventions (2000 and 2008).
Eastney & Craneswater, which covers the bulk of the south coast of Portsea Island, has been the best for the Tories in the medium term, with 7 victories in the last 14 contests since 2006, but in May 2023 not only did they lose the seat, but slipped to third place behind Labour as well. In Central Southsea ward there are currently one LD (elected in 2023, of course) and two Labour representatives. Fratton has the most complex electoral history at municipal level, having returned Liberal Democrats five times in the past 10 years but also Labour twice and UKIP once, in their strong year of 2014 when they won six wards in Portsmouth, though only two in the South constituency. (It is Milton ward that actually includes the stadium of Portsmouth FC, even though it is named Fratton Park). The other one was Charles Dickens ward, covering the city centre and the naval dockyard, which after 2014 trended to Labour solidly before 2023, when there was a rare Independent win in Portsmouth; though it should be said that the victor, Cal Corkery, was actually the incumbent, having been elected as Labour but expelled from the party in January 2023.
Overall, therefore, the May 2023 local elections within the constituency add up to a Liberal Democrat lead, with a total share of the vote of 39.1%, compared with 34.3% for Labour (and 12.7% Conservative, 8.7% Independent and 5.3% Green). However for a number of reasons this cannot be interpreted as a prediction of a Lib Dem gain, or even of a significant challenge to the Labour MP Stephen Morgan at a general election in 2024. For a start, nearly half the Independent vote was cast for the left wing ex-Labour candidate in Charles Dickens ward. More significantly, May 2023 was an exceptionally good year in local electoral politics for the Portsmouth LDs, as they rose to a number of city councillors they have nit surpassed since 2014. In May 2022, for example, Labour had won four of the seven wards within the South division. Most important of all, though, is the disparity between the performance of the Liberal Democrats in council and parliamentary elections. In May 2019 they had won Central Southsea, Fratton, Milton and St Thomas wards, while Labour had only come first in Charles Dickens and St Jude (and the Tory won in Eastney & Craneswater), yet in the general election a few months later Labour’s share was 48.6% and the LD was third with 11.4%.
Portsmouth South had had a very interesting electoral history, and is still very competitive in council elections. However the Liberal Democrats success at municipal level is unlikely to translate to parliamentary politics at a time when Labour are the incumbents as far as the Commons is concerned and also heading for a likely general election victory. Should Labour indeed enter government and eventually run into the inevitable choppy waters, this fighting constituency, this home of the mighty Navy, might well again see a battle royal and an uncertain outcome.
2021 Census
Age 65+ 13.0% 493/575
Owner occupied 42.9% 535/575
Private rented 36.7% 24/575
Social rented 20.4% 137/575
White 80.5% 400/575
Black 4.7% 142/575
Asian 8.8% 177/575
Managerial & professional 27.4% 439/575
Routine & Semi-routine 21.5% 362/575
Degree level 33.0% 263/575
No qualifications 15.4% 407/575
Students 20.5% 21/575
General Election 2019: Portsmouth South
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Stephen Morgan 23,068 48.6 +7.6
Conservative Donna Jones 17,705 37.3 -0.3
Liberal Democrats Gerald Vernon-Jackson 5,418 11.4 -5.9
Brexit Party John Kennedy 994 2.1
Justice & Anti-Corruption Steven George 240 0.5
Lab Majority 5,363 11.3 +7.9
2019 electorate 74,186
Turnout 47,425 63.9 0.0
Labour hold
Swing 3.9 C to Lab
Boundary Changes
None – unchanged seat
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_350_Portsmouth%20South_Landscape.pdf
2019 notional result
N/A as no boundary changes