Post by froome on Jan 27, 2024 10:47:57 GMT
Filton and Bradley Stoke is a revised version of the South Gloucestershire constituency which first appeared in 2010. At that time, the constituency covered a long, thin line of settlements along the Bristol city borders, which was an area that had seen very rapid housing development in the previous 30 years.
Since 2010, this area has continued to see much new development, and so the new version of the constituency covers a much smaller area, and also moves slightly eastwards. The whole of the western and north-western part of the constituency (which covered from Severn Beach and Pilning north-eastward to Almondsbury, Woodhouse Down and Gaunts Earthcott) has now been moved into the revised Thornbury and Yate constituency, while in the east it loses the Staple Hill area but has gained Emersons Green and a part of Mangotsfield, which were just outside the constituency previously on its north-eastern edge. The effect of this is to make the constituency a more urban and compact area, and mostly comprising new development.
It is dominated by major transport systems, having the M5 now as its western boundary, with the M4 running through its middle, where it meets the Ring Road which surrounds the eastern side of the Bristol conurbation. The main railway line from London to south Wales runs through it, with Bristol Parkway station right at the heart of the constituency.
Bradley Stoke is the largest town in the constituency and right at its heart, yet didn't exist 40 years ago. It is a product of the 1980s and 90s housing boom, and soon gained the nomenclature Sadly Broke, though today it has now become more established and settled. Filton, which is just to its south-west, is very different - a town which became northern Bristol's industrial heart in the 20th century, despite never being part of the city. Throughout that century it was dominated by engineering, with BAE and Rolls Royce being its main employers. Both are still there, but in much reduced forms, while the MoD now has a major base on its eastern side at Abbey Wood. Filton itself is still a working-class town, though a little more suburban these days.
Bristol Parkway station lies on Bradley Stoke's southern edge, in the area that used to be Stoke Gifford village. Stoke Gifford and Great Stoke these days are part of Bradley Stoke, but to their south, Harry Stoke has remained as a smaller separate village, though now surrounded by retail and trading estates. Just to its south, by the Bristol city border, is the campus of the University of the West of England (UWE), which also has some new residential development with it, which has led to the creation of the Stoke Park and Cheswick ward.
To the west of Filton and Bradley Stoke is Patchway, which was mainly developed as a council estate in the inter-war years, and what used to be Filton Airfield, which is now rapidly being developed mostly for new housing, including another large development called Brabazon, which began in 2020. South of this, squashed between the airfield and the Bristol boundary, is what was once a small hamlet called Charlton, which is now another recent housing development called Charlton Hayes, this area being now part of the Charlton and Cribbs ward. Cribbs takes its name from Cribbs Causeway, the main road running north-west from Bristol, and home of one of the largest 1980s/90s retail developments called The Mall, and the Aztec West employment base.
East of Bradley Stoke and the M4 is a slightly more rural area which includes older suburban areas. Winterbourne, north of the M4, is a large village that had become a mainly commuting settlement for Bristol by the middle of the 20th century and has seen very little development since. It more naturally fits into the adjacent Thornbury and Yate constituency, but has never been part of that. South of the M4 are large suburban areas which have effectively been part of Bristol since the early 20th century, but have never been included within the city boundaries. These include Downend, Blackhorse and Mangotsfield, while Frenchay, still has a villagey feel. On the eastern edge of these, right by the Ring Road, is another large new residential development called Emerson's Green, built over the last 25 years.
Politically, the constituency has always been Conservative, with the party winning between 41 and 50% of the vote at each election. In 2010, Labour and the Liberal Democrats almost tied for second place, but since then Labour have emerged as the only party that can realistically gain it from the Conservatives, with the Liberal Democrat vote eroding badly (in 2015, UKIP gained more than twice their vote).
At local elections, the constituency has remained as a Conservative voting bastion, but with Labour making considerable inroads and a smaller vote for the Liberal Democrats. Filton and Patchway have usually been reliably Labour, though in 2019 the Conservatives won one of the 2 Filton seats by one vote from Labour, while in 2023, an Independent beat Labour in Patchway. Otherwise, the Conservatives are still the main party, though Labour are now challenging in many wards. In Bradley Stoke, including Stoke Gifford, there are 7 councillors in 3 wards which in 2019 were all Conservative, but Labour now have 2 of them. Labour also now have one of the 3 councillors in Charlton and Cribbs ward and 2 of the 3 in Emersons Green, so are realistically challenging the Conservatives in most of the constituency. Of the other wards, Frenchay and Downend now has 1 Liberal Democrat and 2 Conservative councillors and Stoke Park and Cheswick's single councillor is Liberal Democrat. This leaves Winterbourne as the only area now represented just by Conservatives.
The constituency will almost certainly be a close battle between the Conservatives and Labour at the next election.
Since 2010, this area has continued to see much new development, and so the new version of the constituency covers a much smaller area, and also moves slightly eastwards. The whole of the western and north-western part of the constituency (which covered from Severn Beach and Pilning north-eastward to Almondsbury, Woodhouse Down and Gaunts Earthcott) has now been moved into the revised Thornbury and Yate constituency, while in the east it loses the Staple Hill area but has gained Emersons Green and a part of Mangotsfield, which were just outside the constituency previously on its north-eastern edge. The effect of this is to make the constituency a more urban and compact area, and mostly comprising new development.
It is dominated by major transport systems, having the M5 now as its western boundary, with the M4 running through its middle, where it meets the Ring Road which surrounds the eastern side of the Bristol conurbation. The main railway line from London to south Wales runs through it, with Bristol Parkway station right at the heart of the constituency.
Bradley Stoke is the largest town in the constituency and right at its heart, yet didn't exist 40 years ago. It is a product of the 1980s and 90s housing boom, and soon gained the nomenclature Sadly Broke, though today it has now become more established and settled. Filton, which is just to its south-west, is very different - a town which became northern Bristol's industrial heart in the 20th century, despite never being part of the city. Throughout that century it was dominated by engineering, with BAE and Rolls Royce being its main employers. Both are still there, but in much reduced forms, while the MoD now has a major base on its eastern side at Abbey Wood. Filton itself is still a working-class town, though a little more suburban these days.
Bristol Parkway station lies on Bradley Stoke's southern edge, in the area that used to be Stoke Gifford village. Stoke Gifford and Great Stoke these days are part of Bradley Stoke, but to their south, Harry Stoke has remained as a smaller separate village, though now surrounded by retail and trading estates. Just to its south, by the Bristol city border, is the campus of the University of the West of England (UWE), which also has some new residential development with it, which has led to the creation of the Stoke Park and Cheswick ward.
To the west of Filton and Bradley Stoke is Patchway, which was mainly developed as a council estate in the inter-war years, and what used to be Filton Airfield, which is now rapidly being developed mostly for new housing, including another large development called Brabazon, which began in 2020. South of this, squashed between the airfield and the Bristol boundary, is what was once a small hamlet called Charlton, which is now another recent housing development called Charlton Hayes, this area being now part of the Charlton and Cribbs ward. Cribbs takes its name from Cribbs Causeway, the main road running north-west from Bristol, and home of one of the largest 1980s/90s retail developments called The Mall, and the Aztec West employment base.
East of Bradley Stoke and the M4 is a slightly more rural area which includes older suburban areas. Winterbourne, north of the M4, is a large village that had become a mainly commuting settlement for Bristol by the middle of the 20th century and has seen very little development since. It more naturally fits into the adjacent Thornbury and Yate constituency, but has never been part of that. South of the M4 are large suburban areas which have effectively been part of Bristol since the early 20th century, but have never been included within the city boundaries. These include Downend, Blackhorse and Mangotsfield, while Frenchay, still has a villagey feel. On the eastern edge of these, right by the Ring Road, is another large new residential development called Emerson's Green, built over the last 25 years.
Politically, the constituency has always been Conservative, with the party winning between 41 and 50% of the vote at each election. In 2010, Labour and the Liberal Democrats almost tied for second place, but since then Labour have emerged as the only party that can realistically gain it from the Conservatives, with the Liberal Democrat vote eroding badly (in 2015, UKIP gained more than twice their vote).
At local elections, the constituency has remained as a Conservative voting bastion, but with Labour making considerable inroads and a smaller vote for the Liberal Democrats. Filton and Patchway have usually been reliably Labour, though in 2019 the Conservatives won one of the 2 Filton seats by one vote from Labour, while in 2023, an Independent beat Labour in Patchway. Otherwise, the Conservatives are still the main party, though Labour are now challenging in many wards. In Bradley Stoke, including Stoke Gifford, there are 7 councillors in 3 wards which in 2019 were all Conservative, but Labour now have 2 of them. Labour also now have one of the 3 councillors in Charlton and Cribbs ward and 2 of the 3 in Emersons Green, so are realistically challenging the Conservatives in most of the constituency. Of the other wards, Frenchay and Downend now has 1 Liberal Democrat and 2 Conservative councillors and Stoke Park and Cheswick's single councillor is Liberal Democrat. This leaves Winterbourne as the only area now represented just by Conservatives.
The constituency will almost certainly be a close battle between the Conservatives and Labour at the next election.
