Post by Robert Waller on Jan 26, 2024 20:26:23 GMT
This builds on the profiles of the relevant two former constituencies by jamie and comments on boundary changes by Pete Whitehead
In the major boundary changes in the North East of England north of the river Tyne enacted in 2023, the Newcastle East constituency that existed up to and including the 2019 general election lost 20,000 voters in the Jesmond area and gained almost 33,000 from the North Tyneside seat - consequently it was renamed 'Newcastle East & Wallsend' as it was from 1997-2010. Wallsend on its own was the name of a constituency from 1918 to 1997, though it was always a somewhat inadequate description, as until 1983 it stretched all the way round the edge of Newcastle to include Gosforth, and thereafter included much of North Tyneside and not just Wallsend itself. This new composite constituency is less middle class and less student-dominated, but if anything even more solidly Labour.
Indeed the demographic figures as revealed in the 2021 census underline its transformation since it was plain ‘Newcastle East’. From being the seat with the 4th highest proportion of full time students, it is now outside the top 40 on that score. It has switched from the top half of seats as far as the possession of university degrees to the bottom half, and has risen from 440th in England and Wales for having no educational qualifications to 195th. Interestingly both the owner occupied and social rented housing tenure sections have increased at the expense of private rented - clearly connected with the removal of student areas in the city centre and in Jesmond. With the addition of the social housing estates in the Wallsend area this is now the constituency ranked 26th nationally on that variable, the highest in the Newcastle area and indeed of any seat in England north of the Tyne. It is still an inner city type seat, though, with fewer than half of all housing being owner occupied.
This constituency covers the socially diverse eastern section of the city. Newcastle upon Tyne East was a safe Labour seat. When created in 2010, it was a target for the Liberal Democrats but won in that initial contest by Labour by 12%. From 2015 onwards, the Conservatives took a very distant second. On the banks of the Tyne, the Byker and Walker areas are dominated by council estates, and are among the most deprived areas in the entire UK. Byker is the site of the famous Byker Wall (constructed 1969-82), one of the most notable and controversial council developments anywhere in Britain.
www.theguardian.com/cities/2015/may/21/byker-wall-newcastles-noble-failure-of-an-estate-a-history-of-cities-in-50-buildings-day-41
These very working class neighbourhoods long provided the bedrock of Labour support in the constituency, even when other areas were tempted by the Liberal Democrats. Close to the city centre, the constituency also includes Ouseburn ward, which covers the Shieldfield and Battlefield neighbourhoods, and reaches the Tyne at Quayside, and in its north eastern corner intersects with the Heaton area, which mixes students with predominantly middle class private housing, the latter becoming more prevalent as you get further away from the city centre. The combination of students and public sector workers leads to strong Labour support here, though the longstanding middle class residents are more friendly to the Liberal Democrats in council elections, for example winning Heaton ward more often than not between 2004 and 2016.
The constituency then reaches the river Tyne in the Wallsend area. Wallsend itself is a former shipbuilding town (most notably Swan Hunter, but the shipyard closed in 2007), with a mixture of housing types and a predominantly working class socio-economic pattern. Further east the constituency stretches along the banks of the Tyne to include about a third of Riverside ward, its section west of the A19 bridge, covering Willington Quay. Inland the North Tyneside element consists of three wards. Howdon is a largely post war social housing estate ward, comprising Holy Cross (also known as Rosehill) and Willington as well as Howdon itself. Battle Hill ward is made up of 1960 owner occupied but not high status housing along Battle Hill Drive and Addington Drive. Northumberland ward directly north of Wallsend is also north of the A1058 Coast Road like Battle Hill, but inter-war council built property is more preponderant.
The detailed differences within Newcastle upon Tyne & Wallsend do not respect the metropolitan borough boundary as much as the complex social mosaic within the boroughs. There is a clear student section which strongly influences just two of the wards, Ouseburn and Heaton. In the Shieldfield & Quayside MSOA which approximates to the Ouseburn ward, no less than 67% of all in occupations reported being full time students. In Heaton Park & Portland Road, there was also a majority, 57%. The figure drops of dramatically outside these two middle level census areas, with 20% in the transitional Heaton South & Byker North, these being located in Heaton itself and the Shields Road section of Byker, on the other (north) side of the A193 from the Byker Wall. Elsewhere there is an average or below average proportion of students.
On the other hand, elsewhere in this constituency we find some of the highest concentrations of social rented housing, a sector that nationally has steadily declined for nearly half a century now. Byker South & St Peters (the latter on the Tyne bank) still recorded over 56% in 2021, over 64% in Walker North, over 65% in Walker South – and across the borough boundary, 42% in Howdon and 37% in Willington Quay. The two majority owner occupied areas are at different ends of the constituency: within Newcastle in Heaton (North Heaton MSOA 71%) and within North Tyneside in Battle Hill (63% Battle Hill West, 68% in Battle Hill East). There is a considerable difference in the ages of the housing, though, with a lot of South Heaton being built between 1880 and 1910, and Battle Hill being a 1960s private development. The high private rented concentrations are, as might be expected, in the student areas. However whatever the type of housing tenure, the levels of household deprivation are high almost everywhere. The only MSOA where over 50% are not deprived in any dimension is Heaton North. The deprivation figure reaches its highest in Walker South (near the river) at 73%, followed by 70% in Walker North and 65% in Byker East.
The occupational class numbers follow those for household deprivation. The only nationally above average MSOA for professional and managerial workers is Heaton North (42%), part of which is in Manor Park ward and thus in the new Newcastle North seat. The highest for routine and semi-routine are Walker North and South within Newcastle (37% and 36%) and Howdon in North Tyneside (36%). Fully 37% in Walker South have no educational qualifications, 33% in Walker North, 29% in Byker East. By contrast 52.5% in Heaton South & Byker North have degrees – this figure generated by the Heaton ward section, the terraces around Chillingham Road, not the Byker part – and over 46% in North Heaton. It might be pointed out that Wallsend ward itself does not merit mention in any of these demographic extremes, as it lies in the middle of the range for the constituency on almost all the variables analysed.
In the most recent Newcastle city council elections in May 2024, Labour won four of the five wards included within the boundaries of the new East & Wallsend, holding Walker, Walkergate and Heaton. These victories were very comfortable, despite their differing social characteristics, Heaton being much more affected by the presence of students and private rented housing. In Walker, for example, Labour received a 70% share of the vote, the highest anywhere in the city that year. Walker has never been won by anyone else in the 50 years since Newcastle was constituted as a metropolitan borough in 1973, and Walkergate only had a Liberal Democrat spell between 2003 and 2008 and two solitary Tory wins in the late 1970s. In 2024, however, Labour lost Byker, to the Greens. On the other hand in May 2024 Labour did win Ouseburn, the 8th time they have won it in the 21st century, the other fourteen occasions being Liberal Democrat. In the four and a half wards of North Tyneside contained in Newcastle East & Wallsend, Labour had no problem winning convincingly: Howdon, Battle Hill,Northumberland ward, Wallsend ward itself, and Riverside, the western part of which is placed within this constituency.
In the July 2024 general election Labour' share actually dropped compared with the national results for 2019 by over 9%, though they did narrowly achieve an absolute majority of the votes cast. Reform took second place, though with a distant 20%, and the Greens also moved forward, more than trebling their share. The Conservatives dropped to fourth place and the Lib Dems to fifth. Turnout fell from 65% to 55%.
It seems unlikely that in the foreseeable future Labour will lose substantial enough support among the poor, students and the liberal middle class all at once, as is necessary to make this constituency competitive in the foreseeable future.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 15.5% 431/575
Owner occupied 47.0% 524/575
Private rented 20.9% 184/575
Social rented 32.1% 26/575
White 88.4% 318/575
Black 2.8% 189/575
Asian 5.1% 261/575
Managerial & professional 24.8% 488/575
Routine & Semi-routine 26.3% 198/575
Degree level 30.0% 339/575
No qualifications 20.0% 195/575
Students 14.0% 41/575
General Election 2024: Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Mary Glindon 21,200 50.1 −9.2
Reform UK Janice Richardson 8,383 19.8 +14.9
Green Matthew Williams 5,257 12.4 +8.6
Conservative Rosie Hanlon 3,522 8.3 −15.4
Liberal Democrats Mark Ridyard 2,965 7.0 −1.3
Workers Party Muhammed Ghori 430 1.0 N/A
Party of Women Liz Panton 283 0.7 N/A
Communist Emma-Jane Phillips 186 0.4 N/A
SDP Robert Malyn 95 0.2 N/A
Lab Majority 12,817 30.3 −5.3
Turnout 42,321 55.4 −9.6
Registered electors 76,425
Labour hold
Swings 12.1 Lab to Reform
8.9 Lab to Green
3.1 C to Lab
General Election 2019: Newcastle upon Tyne East
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Nick Brown 26,049 60.1 −7.5
Conservative Robin Gwynn 10,586 24.4 +3.1
Liberal Democrats Wendy Taylor 4,535 10.5 +4.3
Green Nick Hartley 2,195 5.1 +3.3
Lab Majority 15,463 35.7 −10.6
2019 electorate 63,796
Turnout 43,365 68.0 +1.2
Labour hold
Swing 5.3 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend consists of
68.9% of Newcastle upon Tyne East
41.7% of North Tyneside
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-east/North%20East_199_Newcastle%20upon%20Tyne%20East%20and%20Wallsend_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries - Rallings & Thrasher
In the major boundary changes in the North East of England north of the river Tyne enacted in 2023, the Newcastle East constituency that existed up to and including the 2019 general election lost 20,000 voters in the Jesmond area and gained almost 33,000 from the North Tyneside seat - consequently it was renamed 'Newcastle East & Wallsend' as it was from 1997-2010. Wallsend on its own was the name of a constituency from 1918 to 1997, though it was always a somewhat inadequate description, as until 1983 it stretched all the way round the edge of Newcastle to include Gosforth, and thereafter included much of North Tyneside and not just Wallsend itself. This new composite constituency is less middle class and less student-dominated, but if anything even more solidly Labour.
Indeed the demographic figures as revealed in the 2021 census underline its transformation since it was plain ‘Newcastle East’. From being the seat with the 4th highest proportion of full time students, it is now outside the top 40 on that score. It has switched from the top half of seats as far as the possession of university degrees to the bottom half, and has risen from 440th in England and Wales for having no educational qualifications to 195th. Interestingly both the owner occupied and social rented housing tenure sections have increased at the expense of private rented - clearly connected with the removal of student areas in the city centre and in Jesmond. With the addition of the social housing estates in the Wallsend area this is now the constituency ranked 26th nationally on that variable, the highest in the Newcastle area and indeed of any seat in England north of the Tyne. It is still an inner city type seat, though, with fewer than half of all housing being owner occupied.
This constituency covers the socially diverse eastern section of the city. Newcastle upon Tyne East was a safe Labour seat. When created in 2010, it was a target for the Liberal Democrats but won in that initial contest by Labour by 12%. From 2015 onwards, the Conservatives took a very distant second. On the banks of the Tyne, the Byker and Walker areas are dominated by council estates, and are among the most deprived areas in the entire UK. Byker is the site of the famous Byker Wall (constructed 1969-82), one of the most notable and controversial council developments anywhere in Britain.
www.theguardian.com/cities/2015/may/21/byker-wall-newcastles-noble-failure-of-an-estate-a-history-of-cities-in-50-buildings-day-41
These very working class neighbourhoods long provided the bedrock of Labour support in the constituency, even when other areas were tempted by the Liberal Democrats. Close to the city centre, the constituency also includes Ouseburn ward, which covers the Shieldfield and Battlefield neighbourhoods, and reaches the Tyne at Quayside, and in its north eastern corner intersects with the Heaton area, which mixes students with predominantly middle class private housing, the latter becoming more prevalent as you get further away from the city centre. The combination of students and public sector workers leads to strong Labour support here, though the longstanding middle class residents are more friendly to the Liberal Democrats in council elections, for example winning Heaton ward more often than not between 2004 and 2016.
The constituency then reaches the river Tyne in the Wallsend area. Wallsend itself is a former shipbuilding town (most notably Swan Hunter, but the shipyard closed in 2007), with a mixture of housing types and a predominantly working class socio-economic pattern. Further east the constituency stretches along the banks of the Tyne to include about a third of Riverside ward, its section west of the A19 bridge, covering Willington Quay. Inland the North Tyneside element consists of three wards. Howdon is a largely post war social housing estate ward, comprising Holy Cross (also known as Rosehill) and Willington as well as Howdon itself. Battle Hill ward is made up of 1960 owner occupied but not high status housing along Battle Hill Drive and Addington Drive. Northumberland ward directly north of Wallsend is also north of the A1058 Coast Road like Battle Hill, but inter-war council built property is more preponderant.
The detailed differences within Newcastle upon Tyne & Wallsend do not respect the metropolitan borough boundary as much as the complex social mosaic within the boroughs. There is a clear student section which strongly influences just two of the wards, Ouseburn and Heaton. In the Shieldfield & Quayside MSOA which approximates to the Ouseburn ward, no less than 67% of all in occupations reported being full time students. In Heaton Park & Portland Road, there was also a majority, 57%. The figure drops of dramatically outside these two middle level census areas, with 20% in the transitional Heaton South & Byker North, these being located in Heaton itself and the Shields Road section of Byker, on the other (north) side of the A193 from the Byker Wall. Elsewhere there is an average or below average proportion of students.
On the other hand, elsewhere in this constituency we find some of the highest concentrations of social rented housing, a sector that nationally has steadily declined for nearly half a century now. Byker South & St Peters (the latter on the Tyne bank) still recorded over 56% in 2021, over 64% in Walker North, over 65% in Walker South – and across the borough boundary, 42% in Howdon and 37% in Willington Quay. The two majority owner occupied areas are at different ends of the constituency: within Newcastle in Heaton (North Heaton MSOA 71%) and within North Tyneside in Battle Hill (63% Battle Hill West, 68% in Battle Hill East). There is a considerable difference in the ages of the housing, though, with a lot of South Heaton being built between 1880 and 1910, and Battle Hill being a 1960s private development. The high private rented concentrations are, as might be expected, in the student areas. However whatever the type of housing tenure, the levels of household deprivation are high almost everywhere. The only MSOA where over 50% are not deprived in any dimension is Heaton North. The deprivation figure reaches its highest in Walker South (near the river) at 73%, followed by 70% in Walker North and 65% in Byker East.
The occupational class numbers follow those for household deprivation. The only nationally above average MSOA for professional and managerial workers is Heaton North (42%), part of which is in Manor Park ward and thus in the new Newcastle North seat. The highest for routine and semi-routine are Walker North and South within Newcastle (37% and 36%) and Howdon in North Tyneside (36%). Fully 37% in Walker South have no educational qualifications, 33% in Walker North, 29% in Byker East. By contrast 52.5% in Heaton South & Byker North have degrees – this figure generated by the Heaton ward section, the terraces around Chillingham Road, not the Byker part – and over 46% in North Heaton. It might be pointed out that Wallsend ward itself does not merit mention in any of these demographic extremes, as it lies in the middle of the range for the constituency on almost all the variables analysed.
In the most recent Newcastle city council elections in May 2024, Labour won four of the five wards included within the boundaries of the new East & Wallsend, holding Walker, Walkergate and Heaton. These victories were very comfortable, despite their differing social characteristics, Heaton being much more affected by the presence of students and private rented housing. In Walker, for example, Labour received a 70% share of the vote, the highest anywhere in the city that year. Walker has never been won by anyone else in the 50 years since Newcastle was constituted as a metropolitan borough in 1973, and Walkergate only had a Liberal Democrat spell between 2003 and 2008 and two solitary Tory wins in the late 1970s. In 2024, however, Labour lost Byker, to the Greens. On the other hand in May 2024 Labour did win Ouseburn, the 8th time they have won it in the 21st century, the other fourteen occasions being Liberal Democrat. In the four and a half wards of North Tyneside contained in Newcastle East & Wallsend, Labour had no problem winning convincingly: Howdon, Battle Hill,Northumberland ward, Wallsend ward itself, and Riverside, the western part of which is placed within this constituency.
In the July 2024 general election Labour' share actually dropped compared with the national results for 2019 by over 9%, though they did narrowly achieve an absolute majority of the votes cast. Reform took second place, though with a distant 20%, and the Greens also moved forward, more than trebling their share. The Conservatives dropped to fourth place and the Lib Dems to fifth. Turnout fell from 65% to 55%.
It seems unlikely that in the foreseeable future Labour will lose substantial enough support among the poor, students and the liberal middle class all at once, as is necessary to make this constituency competitive in the foreseeable future.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 15.5% 431/575
Owner occupied 47.0% 524/575
Private rented 20.9% 184/575
Social rented 32.1% 26/575
White 88.4% 318/575
Black 2.8% 189/575
Asian 5.1% 261/575
Managerial & professional 24.8% 488/575
Routine & Semi-routine 26.3% 198/575
Degree level 30.0% 339/575
No qualifications 20.0% 195/575
Students 14.0% 41/575
General Election 2024: Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Mary Glindon 21,200 50.1 −9.2
Reform UK Janice Richardson 8,383 19.8 +14.9
Green Matthew Williams 5,257 12.4 +8.6
Conservative Rosie Hanlon 3,522 8.3 −15.4
Liberal Democrats Mark Ridyard 2,965 7.0 −1.3
Workers Party Muhammed Ghori 430 1.0 N/A
Party of Women Liz Panton 283 0.7 N/A
Communist Emma-Jane Phillips 186 0.4 N/A
SDP Robert Malyn 95 0.2 N/A
Lab Majority 12,817 30.3 −5.3
Turnout 42,321 55.4 −9.6
Registered electors 76,425
Labour hold
Swings 12.1 Lab to Reform
8.9 Lab to Green
3.1 C to Lab
General Election 2019: Newcastle upon Tyne East
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Nick Brown 26,049 60.1 −7.5
Conservative Robin Gwynn 10,586 24.4 +3.1
Liberal Democrats Wendy Taylor 4,535 10.5 +4.3
Green Nick Hartley 2,195 5.1 +3.3
Lab Majority 15,463 35.7 −10.6
2019 electorate 63,796
Turnout 43,365 68.0 +1.2
Labour hold
Swing 5.3 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend consists of
68.9% of Newcastle upon Tyne East
41.7% of North Tyneside
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-east/North%20East_199_Newcastle%20upon%20Tyne%20East%20and%20Wallsend_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries - Rallings & Thrasher
| Lab | 29610 | 59.3% |
| Con | 11817 | 23.7% |
| LD | 4161 | 8.3% |
| BxP | 2452 | 4.9% |
| Grn | 1923 | 3.9% |
| Majority | 17793 | 35.6% |