Post by ntyuk1707 on Jan 25, 2024 22:39:40 GMT
Edinburgh West is a burgh constituency covering the north-west of Edinburgh between West Coates on the outskirts of the city’s West End and areas west of Crewe Road South through to the towns and villages of Queensferry, Kirkliston, Newbridge and Ratho outside of the city proper.
The constituency is primarily made-up of affluent suburban areas which oppose Scottish independence. In recent years, these communities have increasingly turned their political allegiance towards the Liberal Democrats to tactically defeat the Scottish National Party. Indeed, at the 2021 Scottish Parliamentary election, Edinburgh Western returned the largest majority in Scotland - won by Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Alex Cole-Hamilton with a 9,885-vote majority. In 2022, the Almond ward in the far-west of this constituency also became the safest ward in Scotland, with the Liberal Democrats winning 60% of the vote to 21% for the SNP at the 2022 local elections. Only five polling districts in the constituency voted for parties other than the Liberal Democrats at the 2022 council elections, underlining the party's increasing electoral dominance here.
The eastern part of the constituency towards the City Centre of Edinburgh contains upmarket apartments, townhouses and mansions in West Coates and Roseburn between Haymarket Station and Murrayfield Stadium, as well as the picturesque Dean Village area beside the Water of Leith. North and west of here are bungalows, manors and townhouses in Murrayfield, Ravelstone and Orchard Brae. Saughtonhall is primarily made up of semi-detached houses, as well as having a small number of former council houses along Baird Drive at the constituency's southern boundary verging towards the railway and tram lines. These communities are not traditional Liberal Democrat areas and, for the most part, represent some of the wealthiest areas in Scotland.
From the expansion of the franchise in 1918, the communities of West Coates, Roseburn, Murrayfield, Ravelstone, Saughtonhall and Orchard Brae were contained within a more compact and urban Edinburgh West constituency. These communities helped to deliver Unionist victories in the constituency in five of the proceeding eight general elections. From 1950, these neighbourhoods retained their loyalty to the Unionists despite being joined with the Labour-leaning areas of Old Town, Canongate and Leith Walk. This redrawn Edinburgh Central constituency was represented by the Labour Party from 1950 through to 1983, until it was gained by Conservative Alex Fletcher in 1983. From 1987 until 2005, the Central constituency was again represented by the Labour Party despite an underlying Conservative vote in West Coates, Roseburn, Murrayfield, Ravelstone, Saughtonhall and Orchard Brae. From 2005 onwards, most of these areas have formed part of the Edinburgh West constituency, which was won by the Liberal Democrats at the 2005, 2010, 2017 and 2019 general elections, and briefly represented by the SNP's Michelle Thompson between 2015 and 2017. Orchard Brae and Dean Village were formerly part of Edinburgh North and Leith which was represented by Labour and subsequently the SNP, but these areas will now vote for an MP for Edinburgh West.
Conservative fortunes in this part of the city took a boost in 2016 when Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson won the Edinburgh Central Scottish Parliamentary constituency from the SNP, beckoning the return of the Conservatives as an electoral force in Scotland. At the 2017 local elections, the Conservatives performed so well in these areas that they were able to top the poll in the City Centre, Murrayfield & Corstorphine and Inverleith council wards.
But despite being a high-point for the Conservatives, 2017 sealed the Conservatives' fate in this part of the city as the Edinburgh West UK Parliamentary constituency returned Liberal Democrat Christine Jardine with a 2,988-vote majority ahead of the SNP. In the subsequent 2019 general election, Jardine increased her majority by nearly 800 votes, while in the Scottish Parliament, Alex Cole-Hamilton's Liberal majority increased threefold in the Edinburgh Western constituency from 2,960 in 2016 to 9,885 in 2021, with a corresponding collapse in the Conservative vote, which more than halved. At the 2022 local elections, every polling district in Murrayfield, Saughtonhall, Roseburn and Ravelston voted Liberal Democrat and these areas did not return a Conservative Councillor for the first time in several hundred years. Orchard Brae and Dean Village were the only polling districts where the Conservatives marginally topped the poll in Edinburgh West, with Orchard Brae voting 26% Conservative, 25% Liberal Democrat and 19% SNP compared and Dean Village voting 32% Conservative to 26% Lib Dem and 15% SNP.
At the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, Murrayfield, Roseburn, Ravelstone, Dean Village, Saughtonhall and West Coates decisively rejected Scottish independence with an estimated 72% No vote to the proposal. Opposition to independence was highest in Ravelston and Murrayfield (78% No) and lowest in Roseburn (61% No), which has become saturated by privately rented properties near to Haymarket station.
North of here and towards the Firth of Forth, the constituency retains an affluent suburban profile - dominated by detached and semi-detached bungalows in Blackhall, Silverknowes, Davidson's Mains and western Craigleith. In its north-eastern extremity, the constituency also covers the post-war council estate of Drylaw.
This section of the constituency has formed part of the Edinburgh West constituency since 1950, with Drylaw briefly joining Edinburgh Central between 1979-1987 and Craigleith and eastern Blackhall forming part of the Edinburgh North and Leith constituency between 2005-2024. Edinburgh West was formerly a safe Unionist seat which had voted Unionist in all-but-three general elections held between 1886 and 1997. In the 1980s, the Liberals emerged as clear challengers to the Conservatives in the seat and Donald Gorrie was able to overturn an 879-vote majority in 1997 to win the seat decisively for the Liberal Democrats with a majority of over 7,000 votes. Barring a brief spell of being represented by the SNP between 2015-17, this constituency has been represented by Liberal Democrat politicians since 1997. In the Scottish Parliament, the Edinburgh Western constituency was represented by Margaret Smith of the Liberal Democrats from 1999 to 2011, followed by SNP MSP Colin Kerr from 2011-2016, and Alex Cole-Hamilton since 2016, who is now the leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats. At the 2021 Scottish Parliamentary election, Mr Cole-Hamilton trebled his majority from 2,960 to 9,885, making Edinburgh Western the safest constituency seat in the Scottish Parliament.
At 2022 local elections, Blackhall and Davidson's Mains returned significant Lib Dem majorities. Polling districts covering Blackhall voted 63% Liberal Democrat to 12% SNP at the local elections, while Silverknowes and Davidson's Mains voted 62.5% Liberal Democrat to 17% SNP. Craigleith, which forms part of the Edinburgh Central constituency within the Scottish Parliament and has traditionally been a better area for the Scottish Conservatives, voted 27% Lib Dem, 24% SNP and 23% Conservative at the 2022 local elections, while the Drylaw estate voted 42% SNP to 21% Labour and 16% Liberal Democrat.
At the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, this portion of the constituency was estimated to have rejected independence with a 74% No vote. Drylaw is estimated to have voted 54% Yes, while Blackhall rejected independence with a No vote of approximately 82%, having the second highest No vote in the city after Fairmilehead in Edinburgh South (84% No).
Hillwood Park and Corstorphine Hill divides the eastern segment of the constituency from Corstorphine, Clermiston and Barnton to the west. On Corstorphine Road is Edinburgh Zoo, which was home to the UK's only giant pandas from 2013-2023 and is the only zoo in the UK to house koalas. Corstorphine and its neighbouring community of the Gyle maintain the same affluent, suburban profile prevalent throughout this constituency, with many detached bungalows and high rates of outright home ownership.
This same profile persists towards Cammo, Cramond and Barnton on the outskirts of the city proper up to the River Almond and Firth of Forth. The neighbourhoods of Clermiston and Drumbrae separate Corstorphine and the Gyle from Cramond, Barnton and Cammo. Clermiston and Drumbrae are more socially mixed areas, with a majority of Clermiston being made up of ex-council housing and around half of the Drumbrae area being the same. To the west of the city around Cammo and Barnton, there has been significant house-building in recent years which is set to expand into the foreseeable future.
South of the city’s tramline between Haymarket and Edinburgh Airport, the constituency boundary of Edinburgh West covers the Saughton council estate. This area is quite distinct from the rest of Edinburgh West both in terms of its political and social profile. The area is among the most socially excluded parts of Edinburgh, sharing more in common with the neighbouring estates of Sighthill, Stenhouse and Wester Hailes than the suburban vistas of Corstorphine and Murrayfield. At the 2022 local elections, the area voted 44.5% SNP to 4.8% Lib Dem. At the 2014 independence referendum, it is estimated that Saughton was one of the most pro-independence areas of the city with a 57% Yes vote.
The constituency is primarily made-up of affluent suburban areas which oppose Scottish independence. In recent years, these communities have increasingly turned their political allegiance towards the Liberal Democrats to tactically defeat the Scottish National Party. Indeed, at the 2021 Scottish Parliamentary election, Edinburgh Western returned the largest majority in Scotland - won by Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Alex Cole-Hamilton with a 9,885-vote majority. In 2022, the Almond ward in the far-west of this constituency also became the safest ward in Scotland, with the Liberal Democrats winning 60% of the vote to 21% for the SNP at the 2022 local elections. Only five polling districts in the constituency voted for parties other than the Liberal Democrats at the 2022 council elections, underlining the party's increasing electoral dominance here.
The eastern part of the constituency towards the City Centre of Edinburgh contains upmarket apartments, townhouses and mansions in West Coates and Roseburn between Haymarket Station and Murrayfield Stadium, as well as the picturesque Dean Village area beside the Water of Leith. North and west of here are bungalows, manors and townhouses in Murrayfield, Ravelstone and Orchard Brae. Saughtonhall is primarily made up of semi-detached houses, as well as having a small number of former council houses along Baird Drive at the constituency's southern boundary verging towards the railway and tram lines. These communities are not traditional Liberal Democrat areas and, for the most part, represent some of the wealthiest areas in Scotland.
From the expansion of the franchise in 1918, the communities of West Coates, Roseburn, Murrayfield, Ravelstone, Saughtonhall and Orchard Brae were contained within a more compact and urban Edinburgh West constituency. These communities helped to deliver Unionist victories in the constituency in five of the proceeding eight general elections. From 1950, these neighbourhoods retained their loyalty to the Unionists despite being joined with the Labour-leaning areas of Old Town, Canongate and Leith Walk. This redrawn Edinburgh Central constituency was represented by the Labour Party from 1950 through to 1983, until it was gained by Conservative Alex Fletcher in 1983. From 1987 until 2005, the Central constituency was again represented by the Labour Party despite an underlying Conservative vote in West Coates, Roseburn, Murrayfield, Ravelstone, Saughtonhall and Orchard Brae. From 2005 onwards, most of these areas have formed part of the Edinburgh West constituency, which was won by the Liberal Democrats at the 2005, 2010, 2017 and 2019 general elections, and briefly represented by the SNP's Michelle Thompson between 2015 and 2017. Orchard Brae and Dean Village were formerly part of Edinburgh North and Leith which was represented by Labour and subsequently the SNP, but these areas will now vote for an MP for Edinburgh West.
Conservative fortunes in this part of the city took a boost in 2016 when Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson won the Edinburgh Central Scottish Parliamentary constituency from the SNP, beckoning the return of the Conservatives as an electoral force in Scotland. At the 2017 local elections, the Conservatives performed so well in these areas that they were able to top the poll in the City Centre, Murrayfield & Corstorphine and Inverleith council wards.
But despite being a high-point for the Conservatives, 2017 sealed the Conservatives' fate in this part of the city as the Edinburgh West UK Parliamentary constituency returned Liberal Democrat Christine Jardine with a 2,988-vote majority ahead of the SNP. In the subsequent 2019 general election, Jardine increased her majority by nearly 800 votes, while in the Scottish Parliament, Alex Cole-Hamilton's Liberal majority increased threefold in the Edinburgh Western constituency from 2,960 in 2016 to 9,885 in 2021, with a corresponding collapse in the Conservative vote, which more than halved. At the 2022 local elections, every polling district in Murrayfield, Saughtonhall, Roseburn and Ravelston voted Liberal Democrat and these areas did not return a Conservative Councillor for the first time in several hundred years. Orchard Brae and Dean Village were the only polling districts where the Conservatives marginally topped the poll in Edinburgh West, with Orchard Brae voting 26% Conservative, 25% Liberal Democrat and 19% SNP compared and Dean Village voting 32% Conservative to 26% Lib Dem and 15% SNP.
At the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, Murrayfield, Roseburn, Ravelstone, Dean Village, Saughtonhall and West Coates decisively rejected Scottish independence with an estimated 72% No vote to the proposal. Opposition to independence was highest in Ravelston and Murrayfield (78% No) and lowest in Roseburn (61% No), which has become saturated by privately rented properties near to Haymarket station.
North of here and towards the Firth of Forth, the constituency retains an affluent suburban profile - dominated by detached and semi-detached bungalows in Blackhall, Silverknowes, Davidson's Mains and western Craigleith. In its north-eastern extremity, the constituency also covers the post-war council estate of Drylaw.
This section of the constituency has formed part of the Edinburgh West constituency since 1950, with Drylaw briefly joining Edinburgh Central between 1979-1987 and Craigleith and eastern Blackhall forming part of the Edinburgh North and Leith constituency between 2005-2024. Edinburgh West was formerly a safe Unionist seat which had voted Unionist in all-but-three general elections held between 1886 and 1997. In the 1980s, the Liberals emerged as clear challengers to the Conservatives in the seat and Donald Gorrie was able to overturn an 879-vote majority in 1997 to win the seat decisively for the Liberal Democrats with a majority of over 7,000 votes. Barring a brief spell of being represented by the SNP between 2015-17, this constituency has been represented by Liberal Democrat politicians since 1997. In the Scottish Parliament, the Edinburgh Western constituency was represented by Margaret Smith of the Liberal Democrats from 1999 to 2011, followed by SNP MSP Colin Kerr from 2011-2016, and Alex Cole-Hamilton since 2016, who is now the leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats. At the 2021 Scottish Parliamentary election, Mr Cole-Hamilton trebled his majority from 2,960 to 9,885, making Edinburgh Western the safest constituency seat in the Scottish Parliament.
At 2022 local elections, Blackhall and Davidson's Mains returned significant Lib Dem majorities. Polling districts covering Blackhall voted 63% Liberal Democrat to 12% SNP at the local elections, while Silverknowes and Davidson's Mains voted 62.5% Liberal Democrat to 17% SNP. Craigleith, which forms part of the Edinburgh Central constituency within the Scottish Parliament and has traditionally been a better area for the Scottish Conservatives, voted 27% Lib Dem, 24% SNP and 23% Conservative at the 2022 local elections, while the Drylaw estate voted 42% SNP to 21% Labour and 16% Liberal Democrat.
At the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, this portion of the constituency was estimated to have rejected independence with a 74% No vote. Drylaw is estimated to have voted 54% Yes, while Blackhall rejected independence with a No vote of approximately 82%, having the second highest No vote in the city after Fairmilehead in Edinburgh South (84% No).
Hillwood Park and Corstorphine Hill divides the eastern segment of the constituency from Corstorphine, Clermiston and Barnton to the west. On Corstorphine Road is Edinburgh Zoo, which was home to the UK's only giant pandas from 2013-2023 and is the only zoo in the UK to house koalas. Corstorphine and its neighbouring community of the Gyle maintain the same affluent, suburban profile prevalent throughout this constituency, with many detached bungalows and high rates of outright home ownership.
This same profile persists towards Cammo, Cramond and Barnton on the outskirts of the city proper up to the River Almond and Firth of Forth. The neighbourhoods of Clermiston and Drumbrae separate Corstorphine and the Gyle from Cramond, Barnton and Cammo. Clermiston and Drumbrae are more socially mixed areas, with a majority of Clermiston being made up of ex-council housing and around half of the Drumbrae area being the same. To the west of the city around Cammo and Barnton, there has been significant house-building in recent years which is set to expand into the foreseeable future.
At the 2022 local elections, this section of Edinburgh West was dominated by the Liberal Democrats. The party won 70% of the vote in Cramond and Cammo, 69% of the vote in north-east Corstorphine and 63% in The Gyle. Even in the more socially mixed areas of Clermiston and Drumbrae, the Liberal Democrats polled decisively ahead of the SNP on 41% in Drumbrae to 33% for the SNP, 55% in Clermiston North to 21% SNP and 45% in Clermiston South to 28% SNP. At the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, these areas voted 67% No, ranging from a 77% No vote in Cramond and Cammo to a 54% No vote in Drumbrae.
The final portion of this constituency sits outside of the Edinburgh urban area and within the traditional county of Linlithgowshire from the River Cramond to the boundary of the City of Edinburgh council area. From the expansion of the franchise in 1918, Linlithgowshire and its successor seat of West Lothian was a Unionist-Labour marginal until emerging as a safe seat for Labour from the 1945 general election until the division of the seat between Edinburgh West and Linlithgow at the 1983 general election. Communities joining Edinburgh West tended to support the Conservatives and SNP at local elections up to that point.
In the north of this stretch of land along the Firth of Forth sits the former royal burgh of South Queensferry. The name 'Queensferry' refers to Saint Margaret of Scotland who is believed to have established a ferry for pilgrims en-route to St Andrews via 'South Queensferry' in Lothian and 'North Queensferry' in Fife. Today, South Queensferry remains the primary crossing point between the City of Edinburgh and Fife, housing the iconic Forth Rail Bridge, Forth Road Bridge and Queensferry Crossing. The town remains a popular tourist destination by housing tour boats to the Islets of the Firth of Forth as well as a marina area with regattas and other water sports, and a popular High Street for visitors.
South Queensferry is a fairly affluent commuter town which contains a mixture of bungalows and ex-council houses. At the 2022 local elections, South Queensferry voted 60% Liberal Democrat to 34% SNP, and at the 2014 independence referendum the town is estimated to have voted 63% No.
South of here are the more socially mixed villages of Kirkliston, Newbridge, Ingliston and Ratho, which sit west of Edinburgh Airport. Edinburgh Airport is the UK's sixth busiest airport after Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted, Luton and Manchester. Like Queensferry, these villages incorporate more affluent suburban areas and former council estates. At the 2022 local elections, Kirkliston voted 65% Liberal Democrat to 22% SNP, whilst Ingliston and Newbridge's polling district voted 59% Lib Dem to 20% SNP and Ratho voted 29% SNP, 29% Conservative and 19% Lib Dem. At the 2014 independence referendum, Ingliston & Newbridge had an estimated 67% No vote, Kirkliston had an estimated 65% No vote and Ratho had an estimated 62% No vote.
Overall, Edinburgh West's modern-day politics are defined by its more suburban demographic and strong opposition to independence - which has coalesced into a strong pro-Union tactical vote towards the Scottish Liberal Democrats. There are pockets of deprivation contained within former council estates on the periphery of the constituency, such as in Drylaw, Saughton and parts of Drumbrae and Clermiston, and these areas had a correspondingly higher vote for the SNP at the 2022 local elections and Yes vote at the 2014 independence referendum.
Sitting Liberal Democrat MP Christine Jardine is likely to see her majority increase significantly following a strong set of results for her party at the 2021 Scottish election and 2022 local elections in this part of Edinburgh, with a significant collapse in support for the SNP and Conservatives which is further underlined by recent opinion polling.
2014 independence referendum (notional):
- NO: 66%
- YES: 34%
2019 general election result (old boundary):
- LIB: 21,766 (39.9%)
- SNP: 17,997 (33.0%)
- CON: 9,283 (17.0%)
- LAB: 4,460 (8.2%)
- GRN: 1,027 (1.9%)
