Post by Robert Waller on Jan 24, 2024 10:49:50 GMT
This is adapted and extended from the original profile by greenhert
Ipswich has existed as a constituency since 1386, and had two MPs until 1918. Its most significant boundary change was in 1983 when its northern wards were transferred to Central Suffolk (they are now in Central Suffolk and North Ipswich). The latest national boundary review, completed and enacted in 2023, has generally brought extensive changes due to the length of time since the previous one came into force (2010), but Ipswich is one of the relatively few seats – indeed the only one of the eight constituencies wholly or predominantly in the county of Suffolk - to be completely unaltered.
Ipswich, the county town of Suffolk, is one the oldest towns in the UK and the oldest continuously inhabited town settled by the English. Via the River Orwell, it served as a trading post for the Hanseatic League during mediaeval times and in the 17th century was a key embarkation point for Puritans emigrating to America in the 17th century (the East Anglian accent still persists today to an extent in the eastern United States accent). During the Industrial Revolution, one prominent East Anglian family, the Ransomes, contributed to its key industries, which were focused mainly on machinery; the first motorised lawnmowers were built here. Today Ipswich's most prominent features are its waterfront and the University of Suffolk; also because of its excellent railway links it is a key transport hub in East Anglia and very useful for commuters.
Demographically Ipswich's qualification levels are below both the regional and national average, although this is very unevenly distributed with St Margaret's ward having more than quadruple the proportion of degree holders of Sprites ward, where the Chantry council estate is, in 2011. Updating to the 2021 census, the Christchurch Park MSOA, covering an similar to St Margaret’s ward in north Ipswich, recorded 44% with degrees, while Belstead Hills MSOA, centred on Sproughton & Pinewood ward on the town’s south western edge, reported just 16.7%, so the contrast still applied, slightly reduced in disparity. Overall the proportion of owner-occupiers is relative low at 54%, with owner-occupation and qualification levels being considerably higher north of the River Gipping / Orwell (the name changes at Stoke Bridge) and Ipswich railway station than south of these. For example in Broke Hall and Bixley nearly 80% were owner occupiers, over 45% outright and without the help of a mortgage, whereas the four most southern MSOAs all had less than 50% owner occupation. 38% in Stoke Park on the central south edge of the town were social rented in 2021 (many in distinctive three story blocks of flats such as along Stoke Park Drive west), in Gipping & Chantry 32%, in Maidenhall, Stoke & Port 30%. Ipswich is also the only constituency in Suffolk with any significant BAME population, 3.7% Black and 5.9% Asian in the 2021 census. The highest Asian concentration in 2021 was in Ipswich Central (10.4%) and the highest Black figure was 5.6% in the inner Westgate neighbourhood.
The occupational class figures within Ipswich are in general consistent with the pattern identified through other variables such as those associated with housing and education. Clearly the highest status jobs are held by people living in the Christchurch Park MSOA (St Margaret’s ward), where 44% are in professional and managerial occupations, compared with the constituency wide 28.6%. Other areas where this figure is above that average are 36% in Broke Hall MSOA on the eastern edge of the town (roughly Bixley ward) and 34% in California MSOA just to its west (St John’s ward). Holywells just south east of the town centre (both the name of a middle layer census area and a borough ward) is slightly above the average at 30%; the only other predominantly middle class ward, Castle Hill is one of the three at the extreme north west end of Ipswich placed in the Central Suffolk & Ipswich North constituency. On the other hand there are plenty of very working class neighbourhoods with high proportions in routine and semi-routine manual jobs. In the recently developed Belstead Hills these account for over 36% of the whole, in Gipping and Chantry Park (also in the outer south western sector of Ipswich) the figure is 35%, as it is in Stoke Park on the southern edge, 24% in Maidenhall, Stoke & Port – which corresponds to Bridge ward – and 37.5% in Gainsborough, Greenwich & Orwell on the other side if the river (south east Ipswich, and Gainsborough ward).
Ipswich leans towards Labour but is a key marginal nonetheless. When it had two MPs, it usually had split representation with 1 Conservative MP and 1 Liberal MP; since its representation was reduced to one MP in 1918 no Liberals have been elected. It elected its first Labour MP, Robert Jackson, in 1923, although he was unseated by the Conservatives' John Ganzoni the following year. A Liberal intervention in 1929 did not help Mr Jackson regain the seat. When Mr Ganzoni was elevated to the peerage as 1st Baron Belstead in 1938, Labour recaptured the seat in the resulting by-election. In a 1957 by-election, Dingle Foot, brother of future Labour leader Michael Foot and also Liberal MP for Dundee from 1931-45, held the seat for Labour; in 1970 he was unseated by the Conservatives' Ernle Money, a local barrister (his son Horatio is a Suffolk-based barrister as well) by just 13 votes. Mr Money held on in February 1974 by just 259 votes, first-time incumbency benefitting him, but he was unseated in October 1974 by Labour's Ken Weetch. In the light of some strange results some even came to calling this constituency Ips-weetch.
Mr Weetch bucked national trends three times consecutively - in 1979 he held the seat on a swing of 1.3% to Labour, in 1983 he kept the pro-Conservative swing as low as 1.5% (and the Liberals polled only 14.2% that year), in 1987 he was unseated by the Conservatives' Michael Irvine, whose father Sir Arthur Irvine was Labour MP for Liverpool Edge Hill from 1947-79. Labour only narrowly recaptured the seat in 1992 by 265 votes; in 2010 Ipswich experienced its largest swing in modern history, 8.1% to the Conservatives, enough for Ben Gummer (son of the then outgoing Suffolk Coastal MP Selwyn Gummer, who was raised to the peerage as Baron Deben later that year) to capture the seat. Ben Gummer was surprisingly unseated in 2017 despite Ipswich voting to Leave by a decisive margin of 56.5% to 43.5%; his role in the Conservatives' general election manifesto that year contributed to his defeat by Labour's Sandy Martin. This seat's current Conservative MP, Tom Hunt, unseated Mr Martin in 2019 and with the first Conservative vote share of >50% since 1935 (50.3%).
Locally, the Ipswich constituency is mostly Labour with historically Bixley (near the Garrett Anderson / Ipswich Hospital) being the only genuinely safe Conservative ward, and St Margaret's ward being reliably Liberal Democrat, although Holywells ward has leant towards the Conservatives as well. In the most recent Ipswich borough council elections in May 2023, the Tories did indeed win Bixley again, as they have continuously for at least the last 50 years. But more surprisingly they did pick up a second ward, Stoke Park, which Labour had won in 2022 and has been evenly shared over the past 30 years – an owner occupied but not professional and managerial neighbourhood. In 2023 it was reasonably close, a majority of 100 votes, with the Conservatives incumbent and an ethnic minority Labour candidate in an overwhelmingly white ward. St Margaret’s was again the only Liberal Democrat success. They have won it in all but two years since 1999; in 2023 they beat the Conservatives in second place by a ratio of around 5:2 - 53.3 % to 21.4%. Neither they nor the Greens finished higher than third in any other ward.
Labour did win all the other ten wards within the bounds of the Ipswich constituency. Holywells was only one that counted as a gain in 2023. As signs that even here the nature of class voting has shifted, they won easily in the second most middle class ward, St John’s, while the closest was in Stoke Park and the only other one with a Labour majority less than 10% was in another high social housing ward, Sprites, once their strongest. This time Labour’s biggest win was in the inner and somewhat multicultural Westgate ward. Adding up across the whole constituency in May 2023, Labour polled 43.3%, Conservative 33.9%, LD 11.7%, and Green 11.1%.
This suggests that in this seat unaffected by boundary changes, the next general election was likely to be another major party contest and probably yet another change of hand – and indeed this transpired in July 2024, with a 14% swing, resulting in an even greater margin than in those 2023 local elections.
2021 Census
Age 65+ 16.0% 414/575
Owner occupied 54.0% 467/575
Private rented 25.3% 105/575
Social rented 20.7% 130/575
White 83.5% 375/575
Black 3.7% 160/575
Asian 5.9% 243/575
Managerial & professional 28.6% 391/575
Routine & Semi-routine 29.7% 88/575
Degree level 27.4% 419/575
No qualifications 21.2% 142/575
Students 6.4% 213/575
General Election 2024: Ipswich
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Co-op Jack Abbott 19,099 43.3 +4.0
Conservative Tom Hunt 11,696 26.5 –23.8
Reform UK Tony Love 7,027 15.9 +13.0
Green Adria Pittock 3,652 8.3 +5.7
Liberal Democrats James Sandbach 2,241 5.1 +0.2
Communist Freddie Sofar 205 0.5 N/A
Heritage Terence Charles 151 0.3 N/A
Lab Majority 7,403 16.8 N/A
Turnout 44,071 57.8 –7.8
Registered electors 76,319
Labour gain from Conservative
Swing 13.9 C to Lab
General Election 2019: Ipswich
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Tom Hunt 24,952 50.3 +4.6
Labour Sandy Martin 19,473 39.3 -8.1
Liberal Democrats Adrian Hyyrylainen-Trett 2,439 4.9 +2.6
Brexit Party Nicola Thomas 1,432 2.9
Green Barry Broom 1,283 2.6 +1.0
C Majority 5,479 11.0
Turnout 49,579 65.6 -2.0
Conservative gain from Labour
Swing 6.3 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Unchanged seat
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_073_Ipswich_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
Unchanged seat
Ipswich has existed as a constituency since 1386, and had two MPs until 1918. Its most significant boundary change was in 1983 when its northern wards were transferred to Central Suffolk (they are now in Central Suffolk and North Ipswich). The latest national boundary review, completed and enacted in 2023, has generally brought extensive changes due to the length of time since the previous one came into force (2010), but Ipswich is one of the relatively few seats – indeed the only one of the eight constituencies wholly or predominantly in the county of Suffolk - to be completely unaltered.
Ipswich, the county town of Suffolk, is one the oldest towns in the UK and the oldest continuously inhabited town settled by the English. Via the River Orwell, it served as a trading post for the Hanseatic League during mediaeval times and in the 17th century was a key embarkation point for Puritans emigrating to America in the 17th century (the East Anglian accent still persists today to an extent in the eastern United States accent). During the Industrial Revolution, one prominent East Anglian family, the Ransomes, contributed to its key industries, which were focused mainly on machinery; the first motorised lawnmowers were built here. Today Ipswich's most prominent features are its waterfront and the University of Suffolk; also because of its excellent railway links it is a key transport hub in East Anglia and very useful for commuters.
Demographically Ipswich's qualification levels are below both the regional and national average, although this is very unevenly distributed with St Margaret's ward having more than quadruple the proportion of degree holders of Sprites ward, where the Chantry council estate is, in 2011. Updating to the 2021 census, the Christchurch Park MSOA, covering an similar to St Margaret’s ward in north Ipswich, recorded 44% with degrees, while Belstead Hills MSOA, centred on Sproughton & Pinewood ward on the town’s south western edge, reported just 16.7%, so the contrast still applied, slightly reduced in disparity. Overall the proportion of owner-occupiers is relative low at 54%, with owner-occupation and qualification levels being considerably higher north of the River Gipping / Orwell (the name changes at Stoke Bridge) and Ipswich railway station than south of these. For example in Broke Hall and Bixley nearly 80% were owner occupiers, over 45% outright and without the help of a mortgage, whereas the four most southern MSOAs all had less than 50% owner occupation. 38% in Stoke Park on the central south edge of the town were social rented in 2021 (many in distinctive three story blocks of flats such as along Stoke Park Drive west), in Gipping & Chantry 32%, in Maidenhall, Stoke & Port 30%. Ipswich is also the only constituency in Suffolk with any significant BAME population, 3.7% Black and 5.9% Asian in the 2021 census. The highest Asian concentration in 2021 was in Ipswich Central (10.4%) and the highest Black figure was 5.6% in the inner Westgate neighbourhood.
The occupational class figures within Ipswich are in general consistent with the pattern identified through other variables such as those associated with housing and education. Clearly the highest status jobs are held by people living in the Christchurch Park MSOA (St Margaret’s ward), where 44% are in professional and managerial occupations, compared with the constituency wide 28.6%. Other areas where this figure is above that average are 36% in Broke Hall MSOA on the eastern edge of the town (roughly Bixley ward) and 34% in California MSOA just to its west (St John’s ward). Holywells just south east of the town centre (both the name of a middle layer census area and a borough ward) is slightly above the average at 30%; the only other predominantly middle class ward, Castle Hill is one of the three at the extreme north west end of Ipswich placed in the Central Suffolk & Ipswich North constituency. On the other hand there are plenty of very working class neighbourhoods with high proportions in routine and semi-routine manual jobs. In the recently developed Belstead Hills these account for over 36% of the whole, in Gipping and Chantry Park (also in the outer south western sector of Ipswich) the figure is 35%, as it is in Stoke Park on the southern edge, 24% in Maidenhall, Stoke & Port – which corresponds to Bridge ward – and 37.5% in Gainsborough, Greenwich & Orwell on the other side if the river (south east Ipswich, and Gainsborough ward).
Ipswich leans towards Labour but is a key marginal nonetheless. When it had two MPs, it usually had split representation with 1 Conservative MP and 1 Liberal MP; since its representation was reduced to one MP in 1918 no Liberals have been elected. It elected its first Labour MP, Robert Jackson, in 1923, although he was unseated by the Conservatives' John Ganzoni the following year. A Liberal intervention in 1929 did not help Mr Jackson regain the seat. When Mr Ganzoni was elevated to the peerage as 1st Baron Belstead in 1938, Labour recaptured the seat in the resulting by-election. In a 1957 by-election, Dingle Foot, brother of future Labour leader Michael Foot and also Liberal MP for Dundee from 1931-45, held the seat for Labour; in 1970 he was unseated by the Conservatives' Ernle Money, a local barrister (his son Horatio is a Suffolk-based barrister as well) by just 13 votes. Mr Money held on in February 1974 by just 259 votes, first-time incumbency benefitting him, but he was unseated in October 1974 by Labour's Ken Weetch. In the light of some strange results some even came to calling this constituency Ips-weetch.
Mr Weetch bucked national trends three times consecutively - in 1979 he held the seat on a swing of 1.3% to Labour, in 1983 he kept the pro-Conservative swing as low as 1.5% (and the Liberals polled only 14.2% that year), in 1987 he was unseated by the Conservatives' Michael Irvine, whose father Sir Arthur Irvine was Labour MP for Liverpool Edge Hill from 1947-79. Labour only narrowly recaptured the seat in 1992 by 265 votes; in 2010 Ipswich experienced its largest swing in modern history, 8.1% to the Conservatives, enough for Ben Gummer (son of the then outgoing Suffolk Coastal MP Selwyn Gummer, who was raised to the peerage as Baron Deben later that year) to capture the seat. Ben Gummer was surprisingly unseated in 2017 despite Ipswich voting to Leave by a decisive margin of 56.5% to 43.5%; his role in the Conservatives' general election manifesto that year contributed to his defeat by Labour's Sandy Martin. This seat's current Conservative MP, Tom Hunt, unseated Mr Martin in 2019 and with the first Conservative vote share of >50% since 1935 (50.3%).
Locally, the Ipswich constituency is mostly Labour with historically Bixley (near the Garrett Anderson / Ipswich Hospital) being the only genuinely safe Conservative ward, and St Margaret's ward being reliably Liberal Democrat, although Holywells ward has leant towards the Conservatives as well. In the most recent Ipswich borough council elections in May 2023, the Tories did indeed win Bixley again, as they have continuously for at least the last 50 years. But more surprisingly they did pick up a second ward, Stoke Park, which Labour had won in 2022 and has been evenly shared over the past 30 years – an owner occupied but not professional and managerial neighbourhood. In 2023 it was reasonably close, a majority of 100 votes, with the Conservatives incumbent and an ethnic minority Labour candidate in an overwhelmingly white ward. St Margaret’s was again the only Liberal Democrat success. They have won it in all but two years since 1999; in 2023 they beat the Conservatives in second place by a ratio of around 5:2 - 53.3 % to 21.4%. Neither they nor the Greens finished higher than third in any other ward.
Labour did win all the other ten wards within the bounds of the Ipswich constituency. Holywells was only one that counted as a gain in 2023. As signs that even here the nature of class voting has shifted, they won easily in the second most middle class ward, St John’s, while the closest was in Stoke Park and the only other one with a Labour majority less than 10% was in another high social housing ward, Sprites, once their strongest. This time Labour’s biggest win was in the inner and somewhat multicultural Westgate ward. Adding up across the whole constituency in May 2023, Labour polled 43.3%, Conservative 33.9%, LD 11.7%, and Green 11.1%.
This suggests that in this seat unaffected by boundary changes, the next general election was likely to be another major party contest and probably yet another change of hand – and indeed this transpired in July 2024, with a 14% swing, resulting in an even greater margin than in those 2023 local elections.
2021 Census
Age 65+ 16.0% 414/575
Owner occupied 54.0% 467/575
Private rented 25.3% 105/575
Social rented 20.7% 130/575
White 83.5% 375/575
Black 3.7% 160/575
Asian 5.9% 243/575
Managerial & professional 28.6% 391/575
Routine & Semi-routine 29.7% 88/575
Degree level 27.4% 419/575
No qualifications 21.2% 142/575
Students 6.4% 213/575
General Election 2024: Ipswich
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Co-op Jack Abbott 19,099 43.3 +4.0
Conservative Tom Hunt 11,696 26.5 –23.8
Reform UK Tony Love 7,027 15.9 +13.0
Green Adria Pittock 3,652 8.3 +5.7
Liberal Democrats James Sandbach 2,241 5.1 +0.2
Communist Freddie Sofar 205 0.5 N/A
Heritage Terence Charles 151 0.3 N/A
Lab Majority 7,403 16.8 N/A
Turnout 44,071 57.8 –7.8
Registered electors 76,319
Labour gain from Conservative
Swing 13.9 C to Lab
General Election 2019: Ipswich
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Tom Hunt 24,952 50.3 +4.6
Labour Sandy Martin 19,473 39.3 -8.1
Liberal Democrats Adrian Hyyrylainen-Trett 2,439 4.9 +2.6
Brexit Party Nicola Thomas 1,432 2.9
Green Barry Broom 1,283 2.6 +1.0
C Majority 5,479 11.0
Turnout 49,579 65.6 -2.0
Conservative gain from Labour
Swing 6.3 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Unchanged seat
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_073_Ipswich_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
Unchanged seat
