Post by andrewp on Jan 23, 2024 16:53:24 GMT
This builds on the previous profile from Penddu
The constituency of Vale of Glamorgan (Bro Morgannwg) is broadly speaking the area in South Wales south of the M4 and between Cardiff to the east and Bridgend to the west. It consists of most of the County Borough of the same name with the exception of the Penarth area which is included in the neighbouring seat of Cardiff South & Penarth.
The Vale of Glamorgan is broadly speaking an area of arable farmland and gently rolling dales and hills, a contrast to the harsh landscapes of the post industrial valleys to the north. It is a popular commuter location to Cardiff and has one sizeable town, Barry, and 3 smaller towns - Cowbridge, Llantwit Major and Rhoose. It doesn’t by and large have the beaches of further west, although there are beaches at Barry and at Southerndown, it has a series of yellow grey cliffs.
The constituency was formed in the boundary review that came into place for the 1983 general election when parliamentary boundaries somewhat caught up with the new local government map that came into force in 1974 and this constituency mirrored the Vale of Glamorgan district. The eastern half of this seat, had previously been in a Barry constituency that also snaked round the north of Cardiff to include suburbs from the city, and the western half had previously been in the Pontypridd constituency. Subsequent boundary changes have been rather minor here and the constituency survives in a recognisable form from 1983.
Barry is by and large a Labour inclined town and the rest of the constituency contains some of the best Conservative territory in the whole of South Wales, which leads to the Vale of Glamorgan being a political bellwether, possibly the most bellwether constituency in Wales.
The largest town is Barry (Y Barri) ( population 50,000) which was originally developed as an alternative coal port to nearby Cardiff, and briefly became the largest coal port in the world taking the title from Cardiff Docks. It had a population of just 100 in 1871 before the development of the docks. The docks are still operational today and until recently were also famous for its banana imports. The area around the docks are home to various industries such as Dow Corning which has the biggest silicon manufacturing plant in Europe – Wales’s Silicon Valley. Barry island to the south of the town in the past has been a holiday destination, and was home to a holiday camp built by Butlins in 1966, and which closed in 1996 with the site sold for housing. There has been a lot of redevelopment and new waterside houses on Barry Island. Barry, and particularly the Island, is the setting of many of the scenes in the BBC programme Gavin and Stacey.
To the west of Barry is Cardiff Airport which is dominated by the British Airways maintenance hangar which services the company’s fleet of 747 Jumbo jets. A few miles further west is the former RAF St Athan air base which is also dominated by a huge hangar – originally built to service military jets but which has been repurposed to manufacture Aston Martin sports cars. The nearby town of Llantwit Major (Llanilltud Fawr) developed to service St Athans air base but one thousand years ago was once home to a monastery considered by some to be the first University in Wales. Rhoose, situated near Cardiff airport has a population of about 6000 and is the home to lots of people who work at the airport.
Much of the surrounding coastline is protected as the Glamorgan Heritage Coast with spectacular cliffs especially at Southerdown and there are also some nice sandy beaches.
The Vale of Glamorgan has a farming industry centred around the small town of Cowbridge (Bontfaen) - population 6000- which has a pleasant shopping street and is a comfortable market town whose most famous son is Iolo Morgannwg who is (in)famous for (re)inventing many Welsh cultural traditions such as the Gorsedd
As one might expect in the type of area that is quite politically bellweather, the demographics of the constituency are somewhat average. The age profile is slightly older than average but not much, it is 95.2% white and a well above average 70.7% owner occupied. The average demographics somewhat mask that the demographics in Barry and in some of the rural areas will be very different.
Local elections in the constituency are also quite divided. In 2022, in the eight wards in Barry town, 14 Labour councillors, 5 Plaid Cymru councillors and 1 Conservative were elected. Plaid wins the Baruc ward which includes the Island and shares representation with Labour in the central Buttrills and in Castleland wards. In a good year for the party, like 2017, the Conservatives can win the two western wards in the town, Dyfan and Illtyd. Outside of Barry, there are 8 Conservative councillors, 6 Independents and 3 Labour. Labour won seats in St Brides Major and St Athan, both for the first time since 1995 and missed a seat in Cowbridge by 35 votes, helped by the sitting Conservative councillors standing as Independents, where they also haven’t won since 1995.
In the current boundary review, the village of Dinas Powys on the main Barry to Cardiff road and its 6000 electors are moved into Cardiff South and Penarth. This has the effect of tilting the seat which was previously comprised almost exactly of 50% Barry and 50% other territory to 55/45 in the favour of Barry and thus politically helps Labour a bit.
Since creation in 1983, this seat has always been won at general elections by the party that has won power, although the seat has tended to swing a bit more average in both directions with both Labour, in the 1990s and 2000s, and the Conservatives, in the 1980s and 2010s, enjoying a larger lead here than their national lead. The most notable election here was a by election in 1989, caused by the death of veteran Conservative MP, Sir Raymond Gower, which resulted in a gain for Labour’s other John Smith. Smith lost out to Conservative Walter Sweeney by just 21 votes in 1992, but gained revenge in 1997. Smith retired in 2010, and Conservative Alun Cairns gained the seat. Cairns was Secretary of State for Wales from 2016-19. In 2019, the swing here was well below average, just over 1% to the Conservatives, and Cairns increased his majority from 2100 to 3500. Cairns did get 50% of the vote though, as the Conservatives and Labour got 93% of the vote between them as neither the Liberal Democrats or Plaid Cymru stood. Both of those parties have selected a candidate for 2024, and one suspects that might limit the swing to Labour a bit, but it looks almost certain that the bellwether status will continue with a Labour win in 2024.
The constituency of Vale of Glamorgan (Bro Morgannwg) is broadly speaking the area in South Wales south of the M4 and between Cardiff to the east and Bridgend to the west. It consists of most of the County Borough of the same name with the exception of the Penarth area which is included in the neighbouring seat of Cardiff South & Penarth.
The Vale of Glamorgan is broadly speaking an area of arable farmland and gently rolling dales and hills, a contrast to the harsh landscapes of the post industrial valleys to the north. It is a popular commuter location to Cardiff and has one sizeable town, Barry, and 3 smaller towns - Cowbridge, Llantwit Major and Rhoose. It doesn’t by and large have the beaches of further west, although there are beaches at Barry and at Southerndown, it has a series of yellow grey cliffs.
The constituency was formed in the boundary review that came into place for the 1983 general election when parliamentary boundaries somewhat caught up with the new local government map that came into force in 1974 and this constituency mirrored the Vale of Glamorgan district. The eastern half of this seat, had previously been in a Barry constituency that also snaked round the north of Cardiff to include suburbs from the city, and the western half had previously been in the Pontypridd constituency. Subsequent boundary changes have been rather minor here and the constituency survives in a recognisable form from 1983.
Barry is by and large a Labour inclined town and the rest of the constituency contains some of the best Conservative territory in the whole of South Wales, which leads to the Vale of Glamorgan being a political bellwether, possibly the most bellwether constituency in Wales.
The largest town is Barry (Y Barri) ( population 50,000) which was originally developed as an alternative coal port to nearby Cardiff, and briefly became the largest coal port in the world taking the title from Cardiff Docks. It had a population of just 100 in 1871 before the development of the docks. The docks are still operational today and until recently were also famous for its banana imports. The area around the docks are home to various industries such as Dow Corning which has the biggest silicon manufacturing plant in Europe – Wales’s Silicon Valley. Barry island to the south of the town in the past has been a holiday destination, and was home to a holiday camp built by Butlins in 1966, and which closed in 1996 with the site sold for housing. There has been a lot of redevelopment and new waterside houses on Barry Island. Barry, and particularly the Island, is the setting of many of the scenes in the BBC programme Gavin and Stacey.
To the west of Barry is Cardiff Airport which is dominated by the British Airways maintenance hangar which services the company’s fleet of 747 Jumbo jets. A few miles further west is the former RAF St Athan air base which is also dominated by a huge hangar – originally built to service military jets but which has been repurposed to manufacture Aston Martin sports cars. The nearby town of Llantwit Major (Llanilltud Fawr) developed to service St Athans air base but one thousand years ago was once home to a monastery considered by some to be the first University in Wales. Rhoose, situated near Cardiff airport has a population of about 6000 and is the home to lots of people who work at the airport.
Much of the surrounding coastline is protected as the Glamorgan Heritage Coast with spectacular cliffs especially at Southerdown and there are also some nice sandy beaches.
The Vale of Glamorgan has a farming industry centred around the small town of Cowbridge (Bontfaen) - population 6000- which has a pleasant shopping street and is a comfortable market town whose most famous son is Iolo Morgannwg who is (in)famous for (re)inventing many Welsh cultural traditions such as the Gorsedd
As one might expect in the type of area that is quite politically bellweather, the demographics of the constituency are somewhat average. The age profile is slightly older than average but not much, it is 95.2% white and a well above average 70.7% owner occupied. The average demographics somewhat mask that the demographics in Barry and in some of the rural areas will be very different.
Local elections in the constituency are also quite divided. In 2022, in the eight wards in Barry town, 14 Labour councillors, 5 Plaid Cymru councillors and 1 Conservative were elected. Plaid wins the Baruc ward which includes the Island and shares representation with Labour in the central Buttrills and in Castleland wards. In a good year for the party, like 2017, the Conservatives can win the two western wards in the town, Dyfan and Illtyd. Outside of Barry, there are 8 Conservative councillors, 6 Independents and 3 Labour. Labour won seats in St Brides Major and St Athan, both for the first time since 1995 and missed a seat in Cowbridge by 35 votes, helped by the sitting Conservative councillors standing as Independents, where they also haven’t won since 1995.
In the current boundary review, the village of Dinas Powys on the main Barry to Cardiff road and its 6000 electors are moved into Cardiff South and Penarth. This has the effect of tilting the seat which was previously comprised almost exactly of 50% Barry and 50% other territory to 55/45 in the favour of Barry and thus politically helps Labour a bit.
Since creation in 1983, this seat has always been won at general elections by the party that has won power, although the seat has tended to swing a bit more average in both directions with both Labour, in the 1990s and 2000s, and the Conservatives, in the 1980s and 2010s, enjoying a larger lead here than their national lead. The most notable election here was a by election in 1989, caused by the death of veteran Conservative MP, Sir Raymond Gower, which resulted in a gain for Labour’s other John Smith. Smith lost out to Conservative Walter Sweeney by just 21 votes in 1992, but gained revenge in 1997. Smith retired in 2010, and Conservative Alun Cairns gained the seat. Cairns was Secretary of State for Wales from 2016-19. In 2019, the swing here was well below average, just over 1% to the Conservatives, and Cairns increased his majority from 2100 to 3500. Cairns did get 50% of the vote though, as the Conservatives and Labour got 93% of the vote between them as neither the Liberal Democrats or Plaid Cymru stood. Both of those parties have selected a candidate for 2024, and one suspects that might limit the swing to Labour a bit, but it looks almost certain that the bellwether status will continue with a Labour win in 2024.
