Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 23, 2024 6:37:01 GMT
Leighton Buzzard and Dunstable are both historic and significant towns – respectively the third and fourth largest in Bedfordshire, but neither has been mentioned in the name of a Parliamentary constituency until now – and now both are. This is not a new seat but a paired down South West Bedfordshire, that name no longer suitable as the rural South-westerly corner of Bedfordshire is removed, the longwindedness of the new name justified by the fact both named towns are of equal size (just over 40,000 population each) and have a somewhat different character and orientation.
Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard have been combined in a seat since 1950 when South Bedfordshire was created, although from then until 1974 it included most of the current Luton North seat which gave it a different character and put Labour in contention. The boundary changes in 1974 removed the Luton section and brought in Linslade which had previously been in Buckinghamshire at which point the constituency was coterminous with the newly minted South Bedfordshire council area.
In 1983 some rural areas North and South of Luton were removed but were replaced with an equal number from Mid Bedfordshire, around Woburn and Cranfield and reaching almost to the outskirts of Bedford, and the name was changed to South West Bedfordshire. The 1997 boundary changes in turn returned that area, without compensation, and there were no changes in 2010.
The boundary changes which take effect now are minor in terms of voters – around 6,000 voters are lost, and no new areas added. But as well as precipitating a change in name these drastically reduce the area covered by the seat and render this an almost entirely urban seat. The departing areas are in the mostly very affluent villages around Whipsnade Zoo and the Dunstable Downs – Eaton Bray and Totternhoe, Kensworth and Studham. Now barely 3,500 rural voters remain, in the ward of Heath & Reach which connects and separates the two urban centres. This includes the villages of Hockliffe and Stanbridge as well as the one named (yes Heath & Reach is the name of one village not two). Heath & Reach is a very safe Conservative ward as are those areas which are departing. The towns, which now dominate this constituency to a greater degree than ever before, have a bit more political variety, in local elections at least.
The greater part of the population and electorate here is in the Eastern end, bordering Luton, because here we have not only Dunstable but the third town, which doesn’t feature in the title (we may be thankful for that) – Houghton Regis (population c,20,000). Dunstable and Houghton Regis form a contiguous urban area as both do also with Luton, but many in both towns would like to think themselves distinct from Luton, though where they border one another, they look indistinguishable on the ground. Any attempts to link either Dunstable or Houghton Regis with Luton for parliamentary purposes have been howled down in previous abortive reviews and this was not even attempted on this occasion.
To be fair to Dunstable, it does have a long history independent of Luton. It was an important market town and coaching centre in the Middle Ages (Watling Street runs through the middle of the town). But in more recent decades it has shared in Luton’s industrial interests – first hat-making, then motor manufacturing. Dunstable differs from Luton though in its ethnic composition and its political loyalties. Dunstable has been (and remains) an overwhelmingly White town – still 84% at the most recent census. The non-white population has increased, inevitably, and is highest in the Eastern Icknield ward which borders Luton – about 25% there now which is high for this constituency but very low in comparison to Luton – the neighbouring ward of Challney in Luton is only 25% White.
This reinforces the allegiance of local voters to the Conservatives who have always dominated in Dunstable in all but their worst years. Even in the generally disastrous 2023 local elections, the Conservatives still won a plurality of votes and seats in the town. That said there has always also been a substantial Labour minority vote in the town – mostly in the council estates which influence the Northfields ward in the North West and Manshead in the South East. Northfields (Dunstable North as it had become) is the only ward in Central Bedfordshire which Labour won outright in 2023 but they were very close in Dunstable South (Manshead) and Dunstable Central, the latter having usually been a safe Conservative ward. The only real Conservative stronghold is the Watling ward in the more upmarket South West of the town, bordering onto the Dunstable Downs. In the town council elections on the same day, the town split its votes almost three ways between Conservatives, Labour and Independents with each winning 6 seats. Labour won some representation in four of the five wards, missing out only in Dunstable West (Watling). But in more normal years, the Conservatives will carry most if not all wards.
Dunstable is not a high status town by any means – the social statistics (Professional, managerial, routine workers etc) are pretty average for England & Wales, the proportion of graduates somewhat below average (which might actually further advantage the Conservatives these days). There is a mixture of housing vintages in Central Dunstable including some Georgian housing along Watling Street and some Victorian terraces behind it. But most of the housing in the town is of inter-war and post war vintage, the typical Dunstable residence being a dull and modest inter-war semi.
Notwithstanding the success of Independents recently, Dunstable has always been very much a two-party affair, with the Conservatives dominant, Labour competitive only in the best of years for them and the Lib Dems barely featuring at all.
Houghton Regis is different, with a much more erratic and fragmented local election landscape. This town like Dunstable was an old market town but has grown massively in the post war years, in this case largely as a result of London overspill estates, particularly in the Eastern wards of Parkside and Tithe Farm. Still almost a quarter of housing in Houghton Regis was social rented in 2023 and it has a working-class profile with almost 30% working in routine and semi-routine occupations. There is also a higher non-white population than in Dunstable – close to 20% in 2023 with a notably high Black population.
Yet for a long time this has not been the Labour stronghold at the local level that all this might imply. Surprisingly perhaps Houghton Regis has been an area of Lib Dem strength, particularly in the slightly more upmarket Houghton Hall in the West of the town. They used to be able to win the other wards too but have fallen away in the last decade. For example, in Tithe Farm, from winning with 55% of the vote in 2011 they dropped to 13.5% in 2015 as Labour gained the seat. Four years later, UKIP won – their first and only election victory in Bedfordshire, long after they had peaked everywhere else.
Parkside had also elected a Lib Dem in 2011 but in 2015 they didn’t even defend their seat. Labour won with 27% of the vote, narrowly ahead of an Independent with both UKIP and Conservative candidates not far behind, that configuration being repeated four years later. In 2023 Independents won the most votes in Houghton Regis with just over 27% of the vote, Labour got just under 27% and the Lib Dems just under 26% - two Independents, two Lib Dems and one Labour councillor were elected. The Conservatives remain chronically weak here in local elections, but in general elections they must win over many of these local Lib Dem and Independent voters and would certainly have carried the town in 2019. But Labour can probably count on winning in a more ‘normal’ year and in a year like 1997, when Labour almost won the constituency, they must have enjoyed a hefty lead here.
Taken together, the Dunstable-Houghton Regis conglomeration is well capable of delivering a Labour plurality in a general election.
Leighton Buzzard (technically Leighton-Linslade) is a different prospect. Though only a few miles from Dunstable, the orientation of the town is different as there are no notable links to Luton. Rather here the road and rail links are more with Milton Keynes and indeed with London, with a fast train running from Leighton Buzzard to London Euston. As such there is much more of a commuter demographic, especially in Linslade (which contains Leighton Buzzard station). Linslade, on the west bank of the river Ouzel, was a separate town and in Buckinghamshire before 1965 but merged with Leighton Buzzard to form the Leighton-Linslade urban district that year, that still being the name of the town/parish. Leighton Buzzard has a handsome town centre and generally pleasant residential areas, like the other towns here including many post-war estates. The social statistics are starkly different to those in Dunstable-Houghton Regis. Around 40% are in professional and managerial occupations compared to just over 30% in Dunstable and 26% in Houghton Regis. The figure is particularly high in Linslade where the proportion of graduates also reaches 40%.
Leighton-Linslade is also well over 90% white and is heavily owner-occupied. There are of course some less salubrious areas, as one would expect in a town of over 40,000 people. There are pockets of Labour support in for example the Planets estate in the North East of Leighton Buzzard and in some of the areas nearer the town centre. The current wards here are large though and while Labour can win one or two of the much smaller parish council wards, they have not won and district council wards for decades (they were able to win one or two seats on the old South Bedfordshire council in a good year, again with smaller wards to play with). Rather it is the Lib Dems who have provided the main opposition to the Conservatives here (and given the demographics, this seems less counterintuitive than their support in Houghton Regis).
At the most recent local elections, the Lib Dems won 8 of the 9 seats available in Leighton-Linslade (with the other seat going to an Independent) and won a plurality of votes by a wide margin. Indeed, such was their strength here that they actually won the most votes across the constituency in those local elections (LD 28% Con 25% Lab 23% Ind 21%) and the most councillors (LD 10 Con 5 Ind 5 Lab 3). That is not to say this is a typical or the default position here – 2023 was a disastrous year for the Conservatives and most of those seats were gained from them then. At the same time there is very longstanding Lib Dem strength and they have usually been able to return some councillors in the town with Linslade (again perhaps predictably) being a particular stronghold). This has rarely translated into general election support however (their best result here was in February 1974 when they won over 30% and were within 10% of the Conservatives). Certainly this is a reliably Conservative town in general elections but Labour must win at least a sizeable minority when they are doing well, as in 1997 when they came so close to winning SW Bedfordshire.
The rural voters here are overwhelmingly Conservative but now exercise a negligible influence – the removal of 6,000 of their number here slices 3,000 off the notional majority. In 1997 the Conservatives only won SW Bedfordshire with a majority of 132 and it was still only 776 in 2001. There is no doubt that on these boundaries, this would have been a Labour seat in those years.
The swing needed for Labour to win is just under 16% - the swing they achieved in 1997 was just over 15%. This remains a longshot but on current polling a Labour victory is entirely plausible, and a close result may be expected. In the long term this may develop into a marginal as the Luton influence continues to exert itself on Dunstable and Houghton Regis and the London commuter element (no longer much of a benefit to the Conservatives) continues to grow in Leighton Buzzard and Linslade.
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_061_Dunstable%20and%20Leighton%20Buzzard_Landscape.pdf
Notional result 2019 (Thrasher & Rallings)
Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard have been combined in a seat since 1950 when South Bedfordshire was created, although from then until 1974 it included most of the current Luton North seat which gave it a different character and put Labour in contention. The boundary changes in 1974 removed the Luton section and brought in Linslade which had previously been in Buckinghamshire at which point the constituency was coterminous with the newly minted South Bedfordshire council area.
In 1983 some rural areas North and South of Luton were removed but were replaced with an equal number from Mid Bedfordshire, around Woburn and Cranfield and reaching almost to the outskirts of Bedford, and the name was changed to South West Bedfordshire. The 1997 boundary changes in turn returned that area, without compensation, and there were no changes in 2010.
The boundary changes which take effect now are minor in terms of voters – around 6,000 voters are lost, and no new areas added. But as well as precipitating a change in name these drastically reduce the area covered by the seat and render this an almost entirely urban seat. The departing areas are in the mostly very affluent villages around Whipsnade Zoo and the Dunstable Downs – Eaton Bray and Totternhoe, Kensworth and Studham. Now barely 3,500 rural voters remain, in the ward of Heath & Reach which connects and separates the two urban centres. This includes the villages of Hockliffe and Stanbridge as well as the one named (yes Heath & Reach is the name of one village not two). Heath & Reach is a very safe Conservative ward as are those areas which are departing. The towns, which now dominate this constituency to a greater degree than ever before, have a bit more political variety, in local elections at least.
The greater part of the population and electorate here is in the Eastern end, bordering Luton, because here we have not only Dunstable but the third town, which doesn’t feature in the title (we may be thankful for that) – Houghton Regis (population c,20,000). Dunstable and Houghton Regis form a contiguous urban area as both do also with Luton, but many in both towns would like to think themselves distinct from Luton, though where they border one another, they look indistinguishable on the ground. Any attempts to link either Dunstable or Houghton Regis with Luton for parliamentary purposes have been howled down in previous abortive reviews and this was not even attempted on this occasion.
To be fair to Dunstable, it does have a long history independent of Luton. It was an important market town and coaching centre in the Middle Ages (Watling Street runs through the middle of the town). But in more recent decades it has shared in Luton’s industrial interests – first hat-making, then motor manufacturing. Dunstable differs from Luton though in its ethnic composition and its political loyalties. Dunstable has been (and remains) an overwhelmingly White town – still 84% at the most recent census. The non-white population has increased, inevitably, and is highest in the Eastern Icknield ward which borders Luton – about 25% there now which is high for this constituency but very low in comparison to Luton – the neighbouring ward of Challney in Luton is only 25% White.
This reinforces the allegiance of local voters to the Conservatives who have always dominated in Dunstable in all but their worst years. Even in the generally disastrous 2023 local elections, the Conservatives still won a plurality of votes and seats in the town. That said there has always also been a substantial Labour minority vote in the town – mostly in the council estates which influence the Northfields ward in the North West and Manshead in the South East. Northfields (Dunstable North as it had become) is the only ward in Central Bedfordshire which Labour won outright in 2023 but they were very close in Dunstable South (Manshead) and Dunstable Central, the latter having usually been a safe Conservative ward. The only real Conservative stronghold is the Watling ward in the more upmarket South West of the town, bordering onto the Dunstable Downs. In the town council elections on the same day, the town split its votes almost three ways between Conservatives, Labour and Independents with each winning 6 seats. Labour won some representation in four of the five wards, missing out only in Dunstable West (Watling). But in more normal years, the Conservatives will carry most if not all wards.
Dunstable is not a high status town by any means – the social statistics (Professional, managerial, routine workers etc) are pretty average for England & Wales, the proportion of graduates somewhat below average (which might actually further advantage the Conservatives these days). There is a mixture of housing vintages in Central Dunstable including some Georgian housing along Watling Street and some Victorian terraces behind it. But most of the housing in the town is of inter-war and post war vintage, the typical Dunstable residence being a dull and modest inter-war semi.
Notwithstanding the success of Independents recently, Dunstable has always been very much a two-party affair, with the Conservatives dominant, Labour competitive only in the best of years for them and the Lib Dems barely featuring at all.
Houghton Regis is different, with a much more erratic and fragmented local election landscape. This town like Dunstable was an old market town but has grown massively in the post war years, in this case largely as a result of London overspill estates, particularly in the Eastern wards of Parkside and Tithe Farm. Still almost a quarter of housing in Houghton Regis was social rented in 2023 and it has a working-class profile with almost 30% working in routine and semi-routine occupations. There is also a higher non-white population than in Dunstable – close to 20% in 2023 with a notably high Black population.
Yet for a long time this has not been the Labour stronghold at the local level that all this might imply. Surprisingly perhaps Houghton Regis has been an area of Lib Dem strength, particularly in the slightly more upmarket Houghton Hall in the West of the town. They used to be able to win the other wards too but have fallen away in the last decade. For example, in Tithe Farm, from winning with 55% of the vote in 2011 they dropped to 13.5% in 2015 as Labour gained the seat. Four years later, UKIP won – their first and only election victory in Bedfordshire, long after they had peaked everywhere else.
Parkside had also elected a Lib Dem in 2011 but in 2015 they didn’t even defend their seat. Labour won with 27% of the vote, narrowly ahead of an Independent with both UKIP and Conservative candidates not far behind, that configuration being repeated four years later. In 2023 Independents won the most votes in Houghton Regis with just over 27% of the vote, Labour got just under 27% and the Lib Dems just under 26% - two Independents, two Lib Dems and one Labour councillor were elected. The Conservatives remain chronically weak here in local elections, but in general elections they must win over many of these local Lib Dem and Independent voters and would certainly have carried the town in 2019. But Labour can probably count on winning in a more ‘normal’ year and in a year like 1997, when Labour almost won the constituency, they must have enjoyed a hefty lead here.
Taken together, the Dunstable-Houghton Regis conglomeration is well capable of delivering a Labour plurality in a general election.
Leighton Buzzard (technically Leighton-Linslade) is a different prospect. Though only a few miles from Dunstable, the orientation of the town is different as there are no notable links to Luton. Rather here the road and rail links are more with Milton Keynes and indeed with London, with a fast train running from Leighton Buzzard to London Euston. As such there is much more of a commuter demographic, especially in Linslade (which contains Leighton Buzzard station). Linslade, on the west bank of the river Ouzel, was a separate town and in Buckinghamshire before 1965 but merged with Leighton Buzzard to form the Leighton-Linslade urban district that year, that still being the name of the town/parish. Leighton Buzzard has a handsome town centre and generally pleasant residential areas, like the other towns here including many post-war estates. The social statistics are starkly different to those in Dunstable-Houghton Regis. Around 40% are in professional and managerial occupations compared to just over 30% in Dunstable and 26% in Houghton Regis. The figure is particularly high in Linslade where the proportion of graduates also reaches 40%.
Leighton-Linslade is also well over 90% white and is heavily owner-occupied. There are of course some less salubrious areas, as one would expect in a town of over 40,000 people. There are pockets of Labour support in for example the Planets estate in the North East of Leighton Buzzard and in some of the areas nearer the town centre. The current wards here are large though and while Labour can win one or two of the much smaller parish council wards, they have not won and district council wards for decades (they were able to win one or two seats on the old South Bedfordshire council in a good year, again with smaller wards to play with). Rather it is the Lib Dems who have provided the main opposition to the Conservatives here (and given the demographics, this seems less counterintuitive than their support in Houghton Regis).
At the most recent local elections, the Lib Dems won 8 of the 9 seats available in Leighton-Linslade (with the other seat going to an Independent) and won a plurality of votes by a wide margin. Indeed, such was their strength here that they actually won the most votes across the constituency in those local elections (LD 28% Con 25% Lab 23% Ind 21%) and the most councillors (LD 10 Con 5 Ind 5 Lab 3). That is not to say this is a typical or the default position here – 2023 was a disastrous year for the Conservatives and most of those seats were gained from them then. At the same time there is very longstanding Lib Dem strength and they have usually been able to return some councillors in the town with Linslade (again perhaps predictably) being a particular stronghold). This has rarely translated into general election support however (their best result here was in February 1974 when they won over 30% and were within 10% of the Conservatives). Certainly this is a reliably Conservative town in general elections but Labour must win at least a sizeable minority when they are doing well, as in 1997 when they came so close to winning SW Bedfordshire.
The rural voters here are overwhelmingly Conservative but now exercise a negligible influence – the removal of 6,000 of their number here slices 3,000 off the notional majority. In 1997 the Conservatives only won SW Bedfordshire with a majority of 132 and it was still only 776 in 2001. There is no doubt that on these boundaries, this would have been a Labour seat in those years.
The swing needed for Labour to win is just under 16% - the swing they achieved in 1997 was just over 15%. This remains a longshot but on current polling a Labour victory is entirely plausible, and a close result may be expected. In the long term this may develop into a marginal as the Luton influence continues to exert itself on Dunstable and Houghton Regis and the London commuter element (no longer much of a benefit to the Conservatives) continues to grow in Leighton Buzzard and Linslade.
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_061_Dunstable%20and%20Leighton%20Buzzard_Landscape.pdf
Notional result 2019 (Thrasher & Rallings)
| Con | 28341 | 58.7% |
| Lab | 12955 | 26.8% |
| LD | 5210 | 10.8% |
| Grn | 1764 | 3.7% |
| Majority | 15386 | 31.9% |
