Post by Robert Waller on Jan 22, 2024 1:37:54 GMT
This profile includes contributions by jamie adapted from his previous entries on Newcastle Central and Newcastle North, and also uses some of that on boundary changes by Pete Whitehead. I am responsible for some modifications of the aforementioned and various additions
The city of Newcastle upon Tyne is the largest in the North East of England. The city has historically been a major port and industrial hub, and more recently has seen a growing public sector and university presence. In the extensive boundary changes affecting Newcastle upon Tyne, the Central constituency shifts further to the West and is renamed Newcastle Central & West – West making a reappearance as a compass point in a Newcastle constituency title for the first time since 1983. It loses the Northern fringe in Kenton and part of Gosforth, but gains over 30,000 voters from Newcastle North in the areas of Denton, Lemington and Westerhope (nearly as many voters as are going into the new Newcastle North). It also gains a small slither of the city centre which is currently in Newcastle East, though few voters are involved here.
This new constituency is largely composed of the city centre and West End of Newcastle and communities towards the north-west of the city. Newcastle upon Tyne Central has been a safe Labour seat. While competitive with the Liberal Democrats on pre-2010 boundaries, its composition from then through the 2019 election would have long made it Labour’s safest seat in the city and they had a 33% majority over the Conservatives at the latter time.
Beginning in the city centre, the constituency includes – in no particular order of importance - most of the most notable landmarks such as the railway station, the cathedrals, the City Hall and the Law Courts, the St James’s Park ground of Newcastle United, the eponymous castle, the Royal Victoria Infirmary as well as major parts of Newcastle University and much of its 1st year student accommodation; all in the ward centred in and named after Grey’s Monument.
Immediately to the west of the city centre is the West End which includes Benwell and Fenham. The Benwell area in the south is almost entirely heavily deprived council estates. Here we are on the north bank on the Tyne, along the Scotswood Road (now A695) familiar from the ‘Blaydon Races’ song, though with far less industry and housing that it once had. The Fenham area to the north, although it does not look as deprived as many other neighbourhoods, has one of the worst reputations in the entire city, not totally earned but also not too far off the mark. Both are strongly Labour voting, and the eastern sections known as Elswick and Arthur’s Hill have substantial Asian populations that make them among the strongest polling districts for Labour in the entire North East. Immediately north of the West End is the Blakelaw and Cowgate area, once again Labour voting council estates. Beyond that everything formerly in Newcastle Central like Kenton and parts of Gosforth are now included in the new lines of the Newcastle North division.
Turning to consider the territory Newcastle Central & West has taken in from North, starting on the banks of the river Tyne, the constituency covers the Lemington area, quite deprived with old terraced housing and strongly Labour voting. Immediately north of Lemington are Westerhope and West Denton, very deprived council estates that also vote Labour. All of these settlements had coal mining activity in the past. Adjacent to Westerhope is the Chapel House estate in Chapel ward. Developed in the latter half of the 20th century, the Chapel area is largely composed of comfortably middle class private housing estates, around Hillhead Parkway for example, and will be closely contested between Labour and the Conservatives at general elections. Also constructed in the latter half of the 20th century is the Newbiggin Hall estate to the north, but unlike Chapel House this is largely council housing and votes comfortably for Labour. In the Boundary Commission report, the majority of the Kingston Park South & Newbiggin Hall ward is included here, with 5,727 voters, though Kingston Park remains in the new North.
In the most recent Newcastle city council elections, in May 2023, of the 11 wards entirely or partly within the new Central & West, seven were won by Labour, three by Independents and one by Liberal Democrats. This last was West Fenham, and was a fresh LD gain that year – previously held by Labour since 2010. Two of the Independent victories were also gains in hitherto Labour strongholds, in Lemington and Denton & Westerhope but in the predominantly private housing estate Chapel ward the Independents has been solidly in their hands since 2012, having previously alternated between Labour and Liberal Democrat. However the vast majority of the Central & West seat is made up of Labour strongholds They have never lost the city centre Monument ward and Elswick in the inner west end, along with Blakelaw, since Newcastle became a Metropolitan Borough in 1973. The same is true of Arthur’s Hill, which was only created before the 2019 all-out elections on new ward boundaries. Many of these victories in 2023 were by huge margins; in Elswick Labour took a 72% share. Overall adding up the votes cast in May 2023 Labour took 49%, Independents 23% Liberal Democrats 10%, Conservatives 11% and Greens 8%. As it is likely that the Independent vote in a general election would break at least proportionately in Labour’s favour, there seems no doubt as to which party will be dominant in Central & West.
This is scarcely surprising given the demographic makeup of the new seat. It is even more working class than the Central seat it has largely replaced, as it has lost the Gosforth element, which also further reduces the proportion with educational degrees. However most of the occupational class categories are somewhat low because Central & West, like Newcastle North, goes into the top 30 constituencies in the country on new boundaries for full time students: nearly 19% overall, and reaching 64% in Newcastle City Centre MSOA in the 2021 detailed census figures, 46% in Arthur’s Hill, 29% in Nunsmoor (which is similar to Wingrove ward). There is above average private rented housing in the constituency, with an absolute majority in City Centre and near majorities in Nunsmoor and Elswick North. However the most strong tenure category is social rented, over 30% in 2021 and 30th out if 575 among seats in England and Wales. This figure reaches an extreme of 70% in Elswick South near the Tyne, as well as 55% in Arthur's Hill, 38% in Benwell, and further out towards the edge of the city, 34% in Blakelaw, 30% in Kenton, and also a majority in parts of the Newbiggin Hall estate.
Almost every aspect of the Census figures suggests Labour strength. Central & West is the Newcastle seat with the highest proportion of ethnic minority voters – indeed, the highest in the whole of the North East region, with only 72.6% of the population being White. Overall the Asian proportion is 17%. This is concentrated most in the inner west-centre of the city: 39% in Elswick North, 36% in Nunsmoor (Wingrove ward), 32% in Elswick South, 26% in Arthur’s Hill, 23% in City Centre, 24% in Cowgate and 23% in Fenham. The Black population (4% overall) is focused most in Elswick South 12%) and Arthur’s Hill (10%). By contrast the low status housing areas further towards the edge of the city are overwhelmingly White – 96% in Westerhope, 96% in Lemington, 93% in Denton. Unlike in some white working class areas in other parts of the country such as Yorkshire and the West Midlands, there was relatively little dalliance with anti-Europeanism in December 2019, though on notional figures the Brexit party would have finished third on the new boundaries and there would have been a tiny increase in the Tory share since 2017.
Overall, Newcastle upon Tyne Central & West looks as if it will be a very safe Labour seat. The constituency is consistently composed of various types of Labour heartland, and their dominance seems unlikely to be challenged any time soon.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 13.8% 472/575
Owner occupied 45.5% 529/575
Private rented 23.2% 141/575
Social rented 31.3% 30/575
White 72.6% 451/575
Black 4.3% 148/575
Asian 16.9% 80/575
Managerial & professional 20.6% 551/575
Routine & Semi-routine 24.9% 243/575
Degree level 27.8% 401/575
No qualifications 23.3% 75/575
Students 18.7% 26/575
General Election 2019: Newcastle upon Tyne Central
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Chi Onwurah 21,568 57.6 −7.3
Conservative Emily Payne 9,290 24.8 +0.2
Liberal Democrats Ali Avaei 2,709 7.2 +2.3
Brexit Party Mark Frederick Griffin 2,542 6.8 N/A
Green Taymar Pitman 1,365 3.6 +2.0
Lab Majority 12,278 32.8 −7.5
Turnout 37,474 64.8 −2.2
Labour hold
Swing 3.8 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West consists of
78.2% of Newcastle upon Tyne Central
42.4% of Newcastle upon Tyne North
2.5% of Newcastle upon Tyne East
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-east/North%20East_198_Newcastle%20upon%20Tyne%20Central%20and%20West_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries - Rallings & Thrasher
The city of Newcastle upon Tyne is the largest in the North East of England. The city has historically been a major port and industrial hub, and more recently has seen a growing public sector and university presence. In the extensive boundary changes affecting Newcastle upon Tyne, the Central constituency shifts further to the West and is renamed Newcastle Central & West – West making a reappearance as a compass point in a Newcastle constituency title for the first time since 1983. It loses the Northern fringe in Kenton and part of Gosforth, but gains over 30,000 voters from Newcastle North in the areas of Denton, Lemington and Westerhope (nearly as many voters as are going into the new Newcastle North). It also gains a small slither of the city centre which is currently in Newcastle East, though few voters are involved here.
This new constituency is largely composed of the city centre and West End of Newcastle and communities towards the north-west of the city. Newcastle upon Tyne Central has been a safe Labour seat. While competitive with the Liberal Democrats on pre-2010 boundaries, its composition from then through the 2019 election would have long made it Labour’s safest seat in the city and they had a 33% majority over the Conservatives at the latter time.
Beginning in the city centre, the constituency includes – in no particular order of importance - most of the most notable landmarks such as the railway station, the cathedrals, the City Hall and the Law Courts, the St James’s Park ground of Newcastle United, the eponymous castle, the Royal Victoria Infirmary as well as major parts of Newcastle University and much of its 1st year student accommodation; all in the ward centred in and named after Grey’s Monument.
Immediately to the west of the city centre is the West End which includes Benwell and Fenham. The Benwell area in the south is almost entirely heavily deprived council estates. Here we are on the north bank on the Tyne, along the Scotswood Road (now A695) familiar from the ‘Blaydon Races’ song, though with far less industry and housing that it once had. The Fenham area to the north, although it does not look as deprived as many other neighbourhoods, has one of the worst reputations in the entire city, not totally earned but also not too far off the mark. Both are strongly Labour voting, and the eastern sections known as Elswick and Arthur’s Hill have substantial Asian populations that make them among the strongest polling districts for Labour in the entire North East. Immediately north of the West End is the Blakelaw and Cowgate area, once again Labour voting council estates. Beyond that everything formerly in Newcastle Central like Kenton and parts of Gosforth are now included in the new lines of the Newcastle North division.
Turning to consider the territory Newcastle Central & West has taken in from North, starting on the banks of the river Tyne, the constituency covers the Lemington area, quite deprived with old terraced housing and strongly Labour voting. Immediately north of Lemington are Westerhope and West Denton, very deprived council estates that also vote Labour. All of these settlements had coal mining activity in the past. Adjacent to Westerhope is the Chapel House estate in Chapel ward. Developed in the latter half of the 20th century, the Chapel area is largely composed of comfortably middle class private housing estates, around Hillhead Parkway for example, and will be closely contested between Labour and the Conservatives at general elections. Also constructed in the latter half of the 20th century is the Newbiggin Hall estate to the north, but unlike Chapel House this is largely council housing and votes comfortably for Labour. In the Boundary Commission report, the majority of the Kingston Park South & Newbiggin Hall ward is included here, with 5,727 voters, though Kingston Park remains in the new North.
In the most recent Newcastle city council elections, in May 2023, of the 11 wards entirely or partly within the new Central & West, seven were won by Labour, three by Independents and one by Liberal Democrats. This last was West Fenham, and was a fresh LD gain that year – previously held by Labour since 2010. Two of the Independent victories were also gains in hitherto Labour strongholds, in Lemington and Denton & Westerhope but in the predominantly private housing estate Chapel ward the Independents has been solidly in their hands since 2012, having previously alternated between Labour and Liberal Democrat. However the vast majority of the Central & West seat is made up of Labour strongholds They have never lost the city centre Monument ward and Elswick in the inner west end, along with Blakelaw, since Newcastle became a Metropolitan Borough in 1973. The same is true of Arthur’s Hill, which was only created before the 2019 all-out elections on new ward boundaries. Many of these victories in 2023 were by huge margins; in Elswick Labour took a 72% share. Overall adding up the votes cast in May 2023 Labour took 49%, Independents 23% Liberal Democrats 10%, Conservatives 11% and Greens 8%. As it is likely that the Independent vote in a general election would break at least proportionately in Labour’s favour, there seems no doubt as to which party will be dominant in Central & West.
This is scarcely surprising given the demographic makeup of the new seat. It is even more working class than the Central seat it has largely replaced, as it has lost the Gosforth element, which also further reduces the proportion with educational degrees. However most of the occupational class categories are somewhat low because Central & West, like Newcastle North, goes into the top 30 constituencies in the country on new boundaries for full time students: nearly 19% overall, and reaching 64% in Newcastle City Centre MSOA in the 2021 detailed census figures, 46% in Arthur’s Hill, 29% in Nunsmoor (which is similar to Wingrove ward). There is above average private rented housing in the constituency, with an absolute majority in City Centre and near majorities in Nunsmoor and Elswick North. However the most strong tenure category is social rented, over 30% in 2021 and 30th out if 575 among seats in England and Wales. This figure reaches an extreme of 70% in Elswick South near the Tyne, as well as 55% in Arthur's Hill, 38% in Benwell, and further out towards the edge of the city, 34% in Blakelaw, 30% in Kenton, and also a majority in parts of the Newbiggin Hall estate.
Almost every aspect of the Census figures suggests Labour strength. Central & West is the Newcastle seat with the highest proportion of ethnic minority voters – indeed, the highest in the whole of the North East region, with only 72.6% of the population being White. Overall the Asian proportion is 17%. This is concentrated most in the inner west-centre of the city: 39% in Elswick North, 36% in Nunsmoor (Wingrove ward), 32% in Elswick South, 26% in Arthur’s Hill, 23% in City Centre, 24% in Cowgate and 23% in Fenham. The Black population (4% overall) is focused most in Elswick South 12%) and Arthur’s Hill (10%). By contrast the low status housing areas further towards the edge of the city are overwhelmingly White – 96% in Westerhope, 96% in Lemington, 93% in Denton. Unlike in some white working class areas in other parts of the country such as Yorkshire and the West Midlands, there was relatively little dalliance with anti-Europeanism in December 2019, though on notional figures the Brexit party would have finished third on the new boundaries and there would have been a tiny increase in the Tory share since 2017.
Overall, Newcastle upon Tyne Central & West looks as if it will be a very safe Labour seat. The constituency is consistently composed of various types of Labour heartland, and their dominance seems unlikely to be challenged any time soon.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 13.8% 472/575
Owner occupied 45.5% 529/575
Private rented 23.2% 141/575
Social rented 31.3% 30/575
White 72.6% 451/575
Black 4.3% 148/575
Asian 16.9% 80/575
Managerial & professional 20.6% 551/575
Routine & Semi-routine 24.9% 243/575
Degree level 27.8% 401/575
No qualifications 23.3% 75/575
Students 18.7% 26/575
General Election 2019: Newcastle upon Tyne Central
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Chi Onwurah 21,568 57.6 −7.3
Conservative Emily Payne 9,290 24.8 +0.2
Liberal Democrats Ali Avaei 2,709 7.2 +2.3
Brexit Party Mark Frederick Griffin 2,542 6.8 N/A
Green Taymar Pitman 1,365 3.6 +2.0
Lab Majority 12,278 32.8 −7.5
Turnout 37,474 64.8 −2.2
Labour hold
Swing 3.8 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West consists of
78.2% of Newcastle upon Tyne Central
42.4% of Newcastle upon Tyne North
2.5% of Newcastle upon Tyne East
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-east/North%20East_198_Newcastle%20upon%20Tyne%20Central%20and%20West_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries - Rallings & Thrasher
| Lab | 28520 | 59.3% |
| Con | 12789 | 26.6% |
| BxP | 3934 | 8.2% |
| Grn | 1462 | 3.0% |
| LD | 1430 | 3.0% |
| Majority | 15731 | 32.7% |