Post by Robert Waller on Jan 21, 2024 10:51:40 GMT
One paragraph has been taken from the original profile by greenhert; the rest is new
Through much of the medieval period Norwich was the second city of England. Since that time it has been overtaken by many others in population, but it remains an important provincial centre. The fine cathedral, many other churches, and town houses of the historic centre bear witness to its time as a wool-trading town and rich commercial metropolis. Norwich South contains the city centre, the cathedral close, and also the University of East Anglia on the south-western edge of Norwich. It also includes a wide variety of neighbourhoods from student and professional dominated ‘progressive’ to a goodly number of social housing estates of a more traditional nature. Very minor boundary changes merely reconcile current ward boundaries to those of the constituency without significant electoral impact.
Norwich South has had an exceptionally complex and interesting electoral history. In the 1960s and 1970s it used to be a classic marginal, swinging with the tide and won by whichever party won the general election as a whole, as it did in 1964, 1970 and 1974. Then in 1983 major boundary changes brought in wards from the former safe Labour Norwich North, which altered South’s political character. The redistribution couldn’t save Labour’s John Garrett in the Conservative landslide year of 1983, when Labour’s manifesto was described (by one of their own prominent members, Gerald Kaufman) as ‘the longest suicide note in history’. But Norwich did not turn its back on Labour so decisively – or permanently, perhaps – as so much of the rest of England, and Garrett was able to regain South narrowly in 1987, when it became Labour’s only seat in East Anglia. In 1992 he increased his majority to over 6,000. In 1997 Charles Clarke took over with a standard (i.e. unprecedented) swing, and won by 14,000, then retaining in 2001 and 2005.
it was during this time it became a Green and Liberal Democrat target and from 2008 to 2012 the Greens held a plurality of council seats in Norwich South. The Liberal Democrats' Simon Wright won it by 310 votes in 2010 in a shock result with the Greens' Adrian Ramsay (Deputy Leader of the Green Party from 2008 to 2012) only 6,595 votes behind Mr Clarke. It became a top Green target in 2015 but surprisingly it was one of only two seats where the Green vote actually fell, by 1%, although nevertheless their candidate Lesley Grahame pushed Mr Wright into 4th place. After Clive Lewis won the seat for Labour in 2015, the Greens slipped back substantially, losing their deposit in 2017 and 2019 (despite fielding then MEP Catherine Rowett then) and in the intervening period losing all their Norfolk County Council seats (all 4 were in the city of Norwich).
However the Greens have subsequently revived at local level. In the most recent Norwich city council elections in May 2023, they won four of the nine wards within the South constituency: cutting a swathe across the centre of Norwich like a belt: from west to east, Wensum, Nelson, Mancroft and Thorpe Hamlet. Wensum was a gain in 2023, the Greens having not previously won there since 2014, but the other three had been theirs in 2019, 2021 and 2022 as well. The Liberal Democrats win the rather anomalous Eaton ward on the south eastern edge of the city, as they have every year since 1994. Labour took the other four wards running south of the ‘Green Wall’ – from west to east: Bowthorpe University, Town Close and Lakenham. The only one of these nine city contests that was close in 2023 was Wensum, where the Greens gained it from Labour with shares of 45% to 44%. There is also one ward included from South Norfolk district, New Costessey, which nevertheless is part of Norwich’s built up area, on its western edge just north of Bowthorpe. In May 2023 Labour gained one of its two seats, for the first time, it having been a Lib Dem stronghold ever since 1987. As might be expected from the even spread of predominantly safe wards, the addition of the votes in 2023 produced a close overall picture. 39.6% went to Labour, 31.2% to the Greens. In third place we find the Liberal Democrats with 17.6%, and the Conservatives lagged in fourth with a mere 11.6%.
In a general election it may be expected that the Greens will again not replicate their municipal strength, but it is also likely that the Conservatives will drop significantly from their 29% share in December 2019. This is not the kind of seat that looks like it will return to being a two party marginal any time soon, though there is clearly potential for either the LDs or more probably the Greens to do well if and when Labour next become unpopular in government. The first anti-Conservative characteristic is the high proportion of students. The University of East Anglia, in the Earlham neighbourhood of Norwich, is indeed in University ward. Very popular indeed with its denizens is the ‘Golden Triangle’ (Colman Road / Earlham Road / Newmarket Road, with Unthank Road as its spine) with its trendy cafes, artisan shops, terraced housing and student oriented pubs. The Triangle covers much of Nelson ward and parts of Town Close and University wards. Norwich University if the Arts is also located within the South constituency. Overall nearly 19% of those in the occupation statistics are full time students. As well as the 56% in the University & West Earlham MSOA in the 2021 census, students made up 23% in Bowthorpe & West Earlham, 20% in Earlham Road & College Road and 18% in Earlham MSOA.
Apart from those intending to gain degrees, a higher proportion than average (36%) within Norwich South already have them. This figure soars to over 58% in Earlham Rd. & College Rd. in the Triangle, 49% in Town Close (inner south west Norwich) and 48% in Eaton (outer south west). This is also the case in the city centre. In the City East MSOA nearly 49% have level 4 educational qualifications and over 38% in City Centre West. The heart of Norwich is largely to be found in Mancroft –for example the castle - and Thorpe Hamlet wards – for example the cathedral - (both Green wards in recent years). A high terminal educational age is now strongly correlated with antipathy to the Conservative party, partly because of the connection with views on the European Union. Norwich south voted 60% for Remain in 2016, and this figure reached 78% in the academic Nelson ward and 69% in Town Close. Helpfully the referendum results have been released at ward level:
www.edp24.co.uk/news/local-council/20849078.revealed-norwich-voted-european-union-referendum-ward/
The next indicator of how un-Tory Norwich South is lies in the housing tenure statistics. The idea that owner occupation is associated with Conservatism was not born with Margaret Thatcher. Across South as a whole less than 44% was owner occupied in 2021. The private rented proportion places the seat 77th out if 575 in England and Wales, and is to be found in its greatest concentration in two discrete areas. One of them is the environs of the Golden Triangle, for example 40% in the Earlham Road & College Road MSOA and 33% in Town Close. The other is the city centre, with 39% in City Centre West MSOA and 49% in City Centre East.
However, Norwich South is even further up the ranks for social rented housing, with a 28% share that places this seat as high as 41st in England and Wales. Norwich has been known for the best part of a century for having a high incidence of ‘council’ housing, at least inside the city council boundaries (there are extensive owner occupied suburbs in the Greater Norwich built up area but not within the tightly drawn lines of the city itself).Within the South parliamentary division high rates of social housing are still to be found in the south eastern corner, Lakenham ward and Lakenham & Tuckswood MSOA (39% in the 2021 census), in Thorpe Hamlet & Mousehold (29%), in the city centre and just north of it Heigham Grove & St Augustine’s (50%) (Nelson and mainly Mancroft wards), and in the north western quadrant of the seat too, with Earlham MSOA recording 39% and Bowcroft & West Earlham 40%. These are also the areas with high household deprivation of around 60% in at least one dimension. The only significant area with a majority of owner occupied housing is Eaton (73.2%), and it is also the least deprived along with the very different Earlham Road & College Road.
These last two areas are also the only ones with a proportion in professional and managerial occupations above 40%, though Eaton is more managerial and the Triangle more professional. Yet there are also extensive tracts of Norwich South with over 30% in the very working class semi-routine and routine jobs, such as Lakenham and Earlham. Overall, then South is a divided seat, with both bohemian academic sections and traditional working class social housing estates. Neither is likely to favour the Conservatives at the opportunity to select a parliamentary representative. No Tory has been elected to Norwich City Council since 2008, and then it was in a couple of social housing wards - Bowthorpe in this South seat; although there has been enough support to keep the Conservatives second in the general election contests since 2015 they were third in 2005 and 2010 and may sink that far again, if the Greens or the Liberal Democrats develop, or regain, their competitiveness.
In July 2024 that was partially true of the Greens, who advanced into second place at the expense of the Tories, while not making a dent on Clive Lewis's majority. With their local base on the city council, Norwich South is set to figure in the next tranche of Green party targets in a general election in the late 2020s.
2021 Census
Age 65+ 16.3% 401/575
Owner occupied 43.7% 533/575
Private rented 28.3% 77/575
Social rented 28.0% 41/575
White 86.2% 344/575
Black 2.5% 210/575
Asian 6.3% 238/575
No religion 52.9% 9/575
Managerial & professional 30.2% 342/575
Routine & Semi-routine 22.3% 328/575
Degree level 36.3% 180/575
No qualifications 15.4% 404/575
Students 18.8% 25/575
General Election 2024: Norwich South
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Clive Lewis 21,484 47.6 –5.9
Green Jamie Osborn 8,245 18.3 +13.5
Conservative David Thomas 5,806 12.9 −16.1
Reform UK Graham Burton 5,227 11.6 +8.4
Liberal Democrats Sean Bennett 3,577 7.9 −1.6
Party of Women Linda Law 455 1.0 N/A
Independent Elizabeth Davey 301 0.7 N/A
Lab Majority 13,239 29.3 +4.8
Turnout 45,095 59.0 –11.0
Registered electors 76,381
Labour hold
Swing 9.7 Lab to Green
General Election 2019: Norwich South
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Clive Lewis 27,766 53.7 −7.3
Conservative Michael Spencer 15,006 29.0 −1.6
Liberal Democrats James Wright 4,776 9.2 +3.7
Green Catherine Rowett 2,469 4.8 +1.9
Brexit Party Sandy Gilchrist 1,656 3.2 N
Lab Majority 12,760 24.7 −5.7
2019 electorate 77,845
Turnout 51,673 66.4 −2.8
Labour hold
Swing 2.8 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Norwich South consists of
98.7% of Norwich South
0.9% of Norwich North
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_088_Norwich%20South_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
Through much of the medieval period Norwich was the second city of England. Since that time it has been overtaken by many others in population, but it remains an important provincial centre. The fine cathedral, many other churches, and town houses of the historic centre bear witness to its time as a wool-trading town and rich commercial metropolis. Norwich South contains the city centre, the cathedral close, and also the University of East Anglia on the south-western edge of Norwich. It also includes a wide variety of neighbourhoods from student and professional dominated ‘progressive’ to a goodly number of social housing estates of a more traditional nature. Very minor boundary changes merely reconcile current ward boundaries to those of the constituency without significant electoral impact.
Norwich South has had an exceptionally complex and interesting electoral history. In the 1960s and 1970s it used to be a classic marginal, swinging with the tide and won by whichever party won the general election as a whole, as it did in 1964, 1970 and 1974. Then in 1983 major boundary changes brought in wards from the former safe Labour Norwich North, which altered South’s political character. The redistribution couldn’t save Labour’s John Garrett in the Conservative landslide year of 1983, when Labour’s manifesto was described (by one of their own prominent members, Gerald Kaufman) as ‘the longest suicide note in history’. But Norwich did not turn its back on Labour so decisively – or permanently, perhaps – as so much of the rest of England, and Garrett was able to regain South narrowly in 1987, when it became Labour’s only seat in East Anglia. In 1992 he increased his majority to over 6,000. In 1997 Charles Clarke took over with a standard (i.e. unprecedented) swing, and won by 14,000, then retaining in 2001 and 2005.
it was during this time it became a Green and Liberal Democrat target and from 2008 to 2012 the Greens held a plurality of council seats in Norwich South. The Liberal Democrats' Simon Wright won it by 310 votes in 2010 in a shock result with the Greens' Adrian Ramsay (Deputy Leader of the Green Party from 2008 to 2012) only 6,595 votes behind Mr Clarke. It became a top Green target in 2015 but surprisingly it was one of only two seats where the Green vote actually fell, by 1%, although nevertheless their candidate Lesley Grahame pushed Mr Wright into 4th place. After Clive Lewis won the seat for Labour in 2015, the Greens slipped back substantially, losing their deposit in 2017 and 2019 (despite fielding then MEP Catherine Rowett then) and in the intervening period losing all their Norfolk County Council seats (all 4 were in the city of Norwich).
However the Greens have subsequently revived at local level. In the most recent Norwich city council elections in May 2023, they won four of the nine wards within the South constituency: cutting a swathe across the centre of Norwich like a belt: from west to east, Wensum, Nelson, Mancroft and Thorpe Hamlet. Wensum was a gain in 2023, the Greens having not previously won there since 2014, but the other three had been theirs in 2019, 2021 and 2022 as well. The Liberal Democrats win the rather anomalous Eaton ward on the south eastern edge of the city, as they have every year since 1994. Labour took the other four wards running south of the ‘Green Wall’ – from west to east: Bowthorpe University, Town Close and Lakenham. The only one of these nine city contests that was close in 2023 was Wensum, where the Greens gained it from Labour with shares of 45% to 44%. There is also one ward included from South Norfolk district, New Costessey, which nevertheless is part of Norwich’s built up area, on its western edge just north of Bowthorpe. In May 2023 Labour gained one of its two seats, for the first time, it having been a Lib Dem stronghold ever since 1987. As might be expected from the even spread of predominantly safe wards, the addition of the votes in 2023 produced a close overall picture. 39.6% went to Labour, 31.2% to the Greens. In third place we find the Liberal Democrats with 17.6%, and the Conservatives lagged in fourth with a mere 11.6%.
In a general election it may be expected that the Greens will again not replicate their municipal strength, but it is also likely that the Conservatives will drop significantly from their 29% share in December 2019. This is not the kind of seat that looks like it will return to being a two party marginal any time soon, though there is clearly potential for either the LDs or more probably the Greens to do well if and when Labour next become unpopular in government. The first anti-Conservative characteristic is the high proportion of students. The University of East Anglia, in the Earlham neighbourhood of Norwich, is indeed in University ward. Very popular indeed with its denizens is the ‘Golden Triangle’ (Colman Road / Earlham Road / Newmarket Road, with Unthank Road as its spine) with its trendy cafes, artisan shops, terraced housing and student oriented pubs. The Triangle covers much of Nelson ward and parts of Town Close and University wards. Norwich University if the Arts is also located within the South constituency. Overall nearly 19% of those in the occupation statistics are full time students. As well as the 56% in the University & West Earlham MSOA in the 2021 census, students made up 23% in Bowthorpe & West Earlham, 20% in Earlham Road & College Road and 18% in Earlham MSOA.
Apart from those intending to gain degrees, a higher proportion than average (36%) within Norwich South already have them. This figure soars to over 58% in Earlham Rd. & College Rd. in the Triangle, 49% in Town Close (inner south west Norwich) and 48% in Eaton (outer south west). This is also the case in the city centre. In the City East MSOA nearly 49% have level 4 educational qualifications and over 38% in City Centre West. The heart of Norwich is largely to be found in Mancroft –for example the castle - and Thorpe Hamlet wards – for example the cathedral - (both Green wards in recent years). A high terminal educational age is now strongly correlated with antipathy to the Conservative party, partly because of the connection with views on the European Union. Norwich south voted 60% for Remain in 2016, and this figure reached 78% in the academic Nelson ward and 69% in Town Close. Helpfully the referendum results have been released at ward level:
www.edp24.co.uk/news/local-council/20849078.revealed-norwich-voted-european-union-referendum-ward/
The next indicator of how un-Tory Norwich South is lies in the housing tenure statistics. The idea that owner occupation is associated with Conservatism was not born with Margaret Thatcher. Across South as a whole less than 44% was owner occupied in 2021. The private rented proportion places the seat 77th out if 575 in England and Wales, and is to be found in its greatest concentration in two discrete areas. One of them is the environs of the Golden Triangle, for example 40% in the Earlham Road & College Road MSOA and 33% in Town Close. The other is the city centre, with 39% in City Centre West MSOA and 49% in City Centre East.
However, Norwich South is even further up the ranks for social rented housing, with a 28% share that places this seat as high as 41st in England and Wales. Norwich has been known for the best part of a century for having a high incidence of ‘council’ housing, at least inside the city council boundaries (there are extensive owner occupied suburbs in the Greater Norwich built up area but not within the tightly drawn lines of the city itself).Within the South parliamentary division high rates of social housing are still to be found in the south eastern corner, Lakenham ward and Lakenham & Tuckswood MSOA (39% in the 2021 census), in Thorpe Hamlet & Mousehold (29%), in the city centre and just north of it Heigham Grove & St Augustine’s (50%) (Nelson and mainly Mancroft wards), and in the north western quadrant of the seat too, with Earlham MSOA recording 39% and Bowcroft & West Earlham 40%. These are also the areas with high household deprivation of around 60% in at least one dimension. The only significant area with a majority of owner occupied housing is Eaton (73.2%), and it is also the least deprived along with the very different Earlham Road & College Road.
These last two areas are also the only ones with a proportion in professional and managerial occupations above 40%, though Eaton is more managerial and the Triangle more professional. Yet there are also extensive tracts of Norwich South with over 30% in the very working class semi-routine and routine jobs, such as Lakenham and Earlham. Overall, then South is a divided seat, with both bohemian academic sections and traditional working class social housing estates. Neither is likely to favour the Conservatives at the opportunity to select a parliamentary representative. No Tory has been elected to Norwich City Council since 2008, and then it was in a couple of social housing wards - Bowthorpe in this South seat; although there has been enough support to keep the Conservatives second in the general election contests since 2015 they were third in 2005 and 2010 and may sink that far again, if the Greens or the Liberal Democrats develop, or regain, their competitiveness.
In July 2024 that was partially true of the Greens, who advanced into second place at the expense of the Tories, while not making a dent on Clive Lewis's majority. With their local base on the city council, Norwich South is set to figure in the next tranche of Green party targets in a general election in the late 2020s.
2021 Census
Age 65+ 16.3% 401/575
Owner occupied 43.7% 533/575
Private rented 28.3% 77/575
Social rented 28.0% 41/575
White 86.2% 344/575
Black 2.5% 210/575
Asian 6.3% 238/575
No religion 52.9% 9/575
Managerial & professional 30.2% 342/575
Routine & Semi-routine 22.3% 328/575
Degree level 36.3% 180/575
No qualifications 15.4% 404/575
Students 18.8% 25/575
General Election 2024: Norwich South
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Clive Lewis 21,484 47.6 –5.9
Green Jamie Osborn 8,245 18.3 +13.5
Conservative David Thomas 5,806 12.9 −16.1
Reform UK Graham Burton 5,227 11.6 +8.4
Liberal Democrats Sean Bennett 3,577 7.9 −1.6
Party of Women Linda Law 455 1.0 N/A
Independent Elizabeth Davey 301 0.7 N/A
Lab Majority 13,239 29.3 +4.8
Turnout 45,095 59.0 –11.0
Registered electors 76,381
Labour hold
Swing 9.7 Lab to Green
General Election 2019: Norwich South
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Clive Lewis 27,766 53.7 −7.3
Conservative Michael Spencer 15,006 29.0 −1.6
Liberal Democrats James Wright 4,776 9.2 +3.7
Green Catherine Rowett 2,469 4.8 +1.9
Brexit Party Sandy Gilchrist 1,656 3.2 N
Lab Majority 12,760 24.7 −5.7
2019 electorate 77,845
Turnout 51,673 66.4 −2.8
Labour hold
Swing 2.8 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Norwich South consists of
98.7% of Norwich South
0.9% of Norwich North
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_088_Norwich%20South_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Lab | 27464 | 53.5% |
| Con | 14881 | 29.0% |
| LD | 4851 | 9.5% |
| Grn | 2477 | 4.8% |
| Brexit | 1635 | 3.2% |
| Majority | 12583 | 24.5% |
