Kingswood By-election - 15th February 2024

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All 16 entries posted have been entered into the competition.

Entries will continue to be accepted until close of poll, 10pm tonight.

[borisminor]

C - Bromiley - 28.1%
LD - Brown - 5.6%
Lab - Egan - 56.2%
Green - Francis - 3.4%
Ref - Lowe - 5.6%
UKIP - Wood - 1.1%

[LDCaerdydd]

Conservative, Sam Bromiley =  36
Liberal Democrats, Andrew Brown =   4
Labour, Damien Egan = 49
Green, Lorraine Francis =   3
Reform UK, Rupert Lowe =   7
UKIP, Nicholas Wood = 1

[nyx]

Jan 19, 2024 20:45:41 GMT nyx said:

Damien Egan (Lab) 46.2%
Sam Bromiley (Con) 22.3%
Lorraine Francis (Green) 14.2%
Rupert Lowe (Reform UK) 10.1%
Andrew Brown (Lib Dem) 6.8%
Nicholas Wood (UKIP) 0.4%

I am going to update this as the Greens didn't campaign as much as I thought they would have. New prediction,

Damien Egan (Lab) 50.2%
Sam Bromiley (Con) 27.3%
Lorraine Francis (Green) 6.2%
Rupert Lowe (Reform UK) 11.1%
Andrew Brown (Lib Dem) 4.8%
Nicholas Wood (UKIP) 0.4%

[Andrew_S]

Lab 52%
C 28%
Green 8%
LD 6.5%
Ref 5.1%
UKIP 0.4%

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All 19 entries posted have been entered into the competition.

Entries will continue to be accepted until close of poll, 10pm tonight.

Final Call for predictions

[haribo]

Lab 52.7
Con 31.3
Reform 6.2
Lib Dem 5.2
Green 3.8
UKIP 0.8

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Competition now closed.

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There are 21 entries into this competition.

I will post the results sometime tomorrow morning.

Prediction Ranges

Sam Bromiley (Con) 27.30% by nyx to 44.20% by markgoodair a range of 21.90%
Andrew Brown (Lib Dem) 3.90% by johnloony to 11.80% by markgoodair a range of 7.90%
Damien Egan (Lab) 40.60% by markgoodair to 56.20% by borisminor a range of 13.80%
Lorraine Francis (Green) 2.00% by 3 predictors to 8.00% Andrew_S a range of 6.00%
Rupert Lowe (Reform UK) 1.00% by markgoodair to 11.10% by nyx a range of 10.10%
Nicholas Wood (UKIP) 0.40% by 3 predictors to 2.20% by Sg1 a range of 1.80%

20 out of 21 predict a Labour win over the Conservatives ranging from 3.50% by DHAA to 28.10% by borisminor a range of 24.60%
1 out of 21, markgoodair, predicts a Conservative win over Labour by 3.60%

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Kingswood By-Election Prediction Competition Result

Congratulations to the winner manchesterman who was the only predictor to score less than 10. Well done also to doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ who finished second and to LDCaerdydd who completes the podium in 3rd.

Final Points

manchesterman 8.6
doktorb 11
LDCaerdydd 12.4
YL 12.6
monksfield 13.4
nyx 15.4
bigfatron 15.6
batman 16.8
DHAA 17.5
Tony Otim 17.8
peterl 18.7
kevinf 19.2
Pete Whitehead 19.2
haribo 19.6
froome 20.2
johnloony 20.6
greenhert 23.2
Sg1 23.8
Andrew_S 24.6
borisminor 28
markgoodair 47.2

Points before Penalties

manchesterman 8.6
doktorb 11
LDCaerdydd 12.4
YL 12.6
monksfield 13.4
nyx 15.4
batman 15.6
bigfatron 15.6
DHAA 17.5
Tony Otim 17.8
peterl 18.7
kevinf 19.2
Pete Whitehead 19.2
haribo 19.6
froome 20.2
johnloony 20.6
greenhert 23.2
Sg1 23.8
Andrew_S 24.6
borisminor 28
markgoodair 35.2

Percentages used were as posted on the Kingswood By-Election Thread, which add up with rounding to 100.


Thanks to all who took part.
DHAA

[nyx]

Congratulations to the winners.

I shall gain solace in the knowledge that aside from the margins of the two leading candidates, I managed to only have a 2.5 point deviation for the other four candidates combined.