Kingswood By-election - 15th February 2024

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Parliamentary Prediction Competition for the Kingswood By-election on the 15th February 2024.

The 6 candidates are:

Sam Bromiley (Con)
Andrew Brown (Lib Dem)
Damien Egan (Lab)
Lorraine Francis (Green)
Rupert Lowe (Reform UK)
Nicholas Wood (UKIP)

Rules
1. Predict the Exact percentage score for each of the 6 candidates, to 1 decimal place.
2. Your total predictions must add up to 100%.
3. You will be penalised the amount you are above / below 100%, so please check your predictions carefully.
4. You will be penalised 15 points for each candidate missing from your prediction.
5. You will be penalised 15 points for predicting the wrong winner.
6. Deadline for Predictions is close of Poll, 10pm on Thursday 15th February 2024.
8. The Winner is the person with the lowest score once scores, including any penalties, have been calculated after the by election.


‐----edit



For clarity,

I have decided I will not be pointing out errors in calculations for this competition, as I have for recent ones. It's partly to save me time, but it is also to reward those who don't make mistakes.

A like on an entry will indicate it has been accepted into the competition.

[greenhert]

My prediction:

Labour 54
Conservative 35
Liberal Democrats 5
Reform UK 3
Green 2
UKIP 1

[nyx]

Damien Egan (Lab) 46.2%
Sam Bromiley (Con) 22.3%
Lorraine Francis (Green) 14.2%
Rupert Lowe (Reform UK) 10.1%
Andrew Brown (Lib Dem) 6.8%
Nicholas Wood (UKIP) 0.4%

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

For clarity,

I have decided I will not be pointing out errors in calculations for this competition, as I have for recent ones. It's partly to save me time, but it is also to reward those who don't make mistakes.

A like on an entry will indicate it has been accepted into the competition.

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

Labour 43.3
Conservative 38.1
Reform 10.3
Liberal Democrats 5.3
Green 2.0
UKIP 1.0

Labour GAIN

[johnloony]

Lab 54.2
Con 31.9
Grn 5.2
LD 3.9
Ref 3.7
UKIP 1.1

[kevinf]

Lab 49, Con 33, LD 8.5, Green 5, Reform 3.5, Ukip 1

[monksfield]

Sam Bromiley (Con) 29
Andrew Brown (Lib Dem) 6
Damien Egan (Lab). 48
Lorraine Francis (Green). 5
Rupert Lowe (Reform UK). 11
Nicholas Wood (UKIP). 1

[YL]

Lab 49.9
Con 35.1
Reform 7.1
Lib Dem 4.4
Green 2.8
UKIP 0.7

[Tony Otim]

Labour 48.5
Conservative 37.8
Liberal Democrat 5.1
Reform UK 4.2
Green 3.1
UKIP 1.3

[Pete Whitehead]

Lab	53.1%
Con	30.8%
Ref	7.1%
LD	4.7%
Grn	3.4%
UKIP	0.9%

[peterl]

Lab 51.4
Con 29.5
Reform 7.2
LD 5.8
Green 5.2
UKIP 0.9

[froome]

Lab 50.8%
Con 29.5%
Lib Dem 6.9%
Green 6.1%
Reform 5.7%
UKIP 1.0%

[markgoodair]

Con 44.2%
Lab 40.6%
Lib Dem 11.8%
Green 2.0%
Reform 1.0%
UKIp 0/.4%

[batman]

That's pretty bold

[Sg1]

Lab: 54.4
Con: 32.4
Lib Dem: 4.2
Reform: 3.9
Green: 2.9
UKIP: 2.2

[batman]

Lab 48.6
C 37.7
RefUK 5.2
LD 4.1
Green 3.8
UKIP 1.8

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Sam Bromiley (Con) 40
Andrew Brown (Lib Dem) 7.1
Damien Egan (Lab) 43.5
Lorraine Francis (Green) 3.9
Rupert Lowe (Reform UK) 4.7
Nicholas Wood (UKIP) 0.8

[manchesterman]

Lab 44.9%
Con 31.1%
Reform 9.9%
Green 7.7%
Lib Dem 5.5%
UKIP 0.9%

[bigfatron]

Lab 47.0%
Con 31.1%
Reform 6.4%
Green 7.7%
Lib Dem 6.5%
UKIP 1.3%