Cardiff South and Penarth
Jan 17, 2024 14:05:00 GMT
Pete Whitehead, Robert Waller, and 1 more like this
Post by andrewp on Jan 17, 2024 14:05:00 GMT
With credit to Penddu for the original profile
Cardiff South and Penarth (De Caerdydd a Phenarth) was a new parliamentary constituency name introduced in the boundary changes that came into force for the 1983 general election and the boundaries of the seat have remained more or less the same in the two subsequent boundary reviews. Up until 2024, it consists of three distinct areas, separated by the Ely and Rhymney rivers. While 2/3rds of the current seat is inside of the City and County of Cardiff (Caerdydd), the seat crosses the River Ely to the west into the County Borough of The Vale of Glamorgan ( Y Fro Morgannwg) taking in the town of Penarth. This quiet town was traditionally seen as Cardiff's retirement home, but in reality it is more a commuter suburb which is well connected to Central Cardiff by the local rail network. All of these areas had been united before in the Cardiff South East constituency that existed between 1950 and 1974 but Penarth gained a mention in the constituency name in 1983. It has always looked an awkwardly shaped constituency on a map, a straggly narrow constituency running from North East to South West and always felt like the necessary awkward constituency that makes all of the surrounding constituencies optimum.
The central part, and core, of the seat bounded by the South Wales Main Line to the north, is largely post-industrial. It includes the port of Cardiff which was once the largest coal exporting port in the world, but is now the heart of a thriving waterfront based development around Cardiff Bay - which is also home to the Welsh Parliament or Senedd, opened in 2006, and the Millenium centre arts venue. The former East Moors steelworks has long gone, although two smaller steelworks and smaller industries still remain. There are plenty of modern appartments around the bay and rivers, but the core of this area is the working class districts of Butetown (previously the infamous Tiger Bay), Grangetown, Splott and Tremorfa, which are heavily Labour voting. Tiger Bay became one of the first multi cultural areas of Britain, when a range of nationality’s settled after arriving at the docks and the area is to this day home to much of the Asian and black population of Cardiff.
Across Cardiff Bay to the South West, Penarth sits on top of higher ground and looking across the Bay towards Penarth, one can see Victorian buildings on the skyline. Penarth grew sharply in the 19th century as a seaside resort for South Wales and still has a promenade and a pier. It grew from a settlement of 100 residents in 1851, to 6,000 in 1881 and to 14,000 in 1901. It was traditionally Conservative voting and would have contributed heavily to the scare that local Labour MP and future Prime Minister Jim Callaghan got in 1959 when his majority was reduced to 868. However, in recent years, Penarth has changed a bit due to its good transport links to Cardiff. It too has its share of flats looking across the bay which are popular with young professionals, and the town is a popular move out of Cardiff for families with young children. It’s 4 wards include one that is normally safe for Labour, Stanwell, in the West of the town, 1 that is normally safely Conservative- Plymouth ( but which itself was a close run with Labour in 2022 as the sitting Conservative councillors stood as Independents) on the coast south of the town centre, and 2 that have often been marginal and can be won by the Conservatives in good years for the party- Cornerswell and the central St Augustines, although Labour won both quite comfortably on 2022 and there are signs that both of those are trending Labour.
In the boundary changes, the third section of the current seat - the 3 most Eastern wards, containing about 25000 voters, Llanrumney, Rumney, Trowbridge and St Mellons, are removed. These are 1960s & 70s housing estates and are generally Labour leaning. The river Rhymney was formerly the historic boundary between Glamorgan and Monmouthshire, and so this area of the Welsh capital was arguabally in England until this historic anomaly was rectified in 1974, but you wont find many (if any) local residents who believe they are in England.
In return the seat gains two new, and very different, areas. The Cathays ward, which is effectively Cardiff’s city centre ward ( and the transfer of which has led to the neighbouring Cardiff Central constituency being renamed Cardiff East) and Dinas Powys, a large commuter village on the Cardiff to Barry road and inland of Penarth. This gives the new constituency the unusual mix of both the city centre and an area of rural farmland.
Overall this constituency if anything now looks a more natural geographical shape on paper, with the exception of the Cathays ward which provides a northern antennae to the seat. Cathays ward contains the centre of the capital including the main shopping hubs of Queen’s Street, St. Mary’s Street and St. David’s Shopping Centre, as well as Cardiff Castle, the southern end of Bute Park and the Principality Stadium. The fine civic building of Cathays Park are here and include the National Musuem of Wales, City Hall, the Crown Court and the Universities of Cardiff and South Wales. BBC Wales’ new headquarters recently opened on the site of the old Coach Station. The population of Cathays ward, however, is primarily based on the other side of the railway line from the civic buildings in Cathays and contains a large student population.
The other arrival, Dinas Powys, is a large affluent village and is the setting for the comfortable suburban ‘Billericay’ scenes in the South Wales comedy series Gavin and Stacey. It has a history of voting for Plaid Cymru councillors but will usually be carried by the Conservatives at general elections.
Despite the presence of Penarth and Dinas Powys, this seat has demographic indicators of a city student seat. 23% of people are aged between 16 and 24 ( 11th highest in England and Wales) and 24% of people are students. It has a relatively low percentage of people aged between 50-64 ( ranked 558th in England and Wales) Fully 40.7% of people here have degree level qualifications. It also has a relatively low percentage of owner occupiers and a high percentage of private renters ( 33.4%, ranking 43rd in England and Wales).
The new seat will have the highest non white population in Cardiff ( 24.4%) and there are significant Asian and black populations in Butetown and Grangetown
In the most recent local elections in 2022, Labour won all four of the Cardiff wards, and all 15 Cardiff city councillors in those wards and the Conservatives failed to top 10% of the vote in any of them.
The Vale of Glamorgan wards are somewhat different. Penarth elected 7 Labour councillors to 2 Conservatives. The 3 more rural Vale of Glamorgan wards included in the seat elected 3 Plaid Cymru councillors, 2 Conservatives, 1 Labour and 1 Independent. The Conservatives racked up 73% of the vote in the small community of Llandough just across the main road from Grangetown.
Overall this seat is pretty safe Labour. Jim Callaghan represented parts of this area for over 40 years, but the seat is more secure for Labour now than it was for much of Callaghan’s tenure. This seat perhaps in some ways tells the story of the changing appeal of the UK Labour Party. There are still some deprived areas in the constituency but there is a sizeable ethnic minority, and the dock land is now full of young urban metropolitan professionals in rented flats.
Callaghan was succeeded by Alun Michael , who was briefly First minister of Wales, and who represented this seat for 25 years and still holds elected office at the age of 80 as Police and Crime Commissioner for South Wales. Michael was succeeded by Stephen Doughty. Doughty won re election in 2019 by 12,700 votes and beat the Conservatives 54-29. The notional result following the boundary changes reduces that by about 1000, but this is now in the top 100 safest Labour seats and is safer than traditional valley strongholds like Ogmore, Islwyn and Neath.
Cardiff South and Penarth (De Caerdydd a Phenarth) was a new parliamentary constituency name introduced in the boundary changes that came into force for the 1983 general election and the boundaries of the seat have remained more or less the same in the two subsequent boundary reviews. Up until 2024, it consists of three distinct areas, separated by the Ely and Rhymney rivers. While 2/3rds of the current seat is inside of the City and County of Cardiff (Caerdydd), the seat crosses the River Ely to the west into the County Borough of The Vale of Glamorgan ( Y Fro Morgannwg) taking in the town of Penarth. This quiet town was traditionally seen as Cardiff's retirement home, but in reality it is more a commuter suburb which is well connected to Central Cardiff by the local rail network. All of these areas had been united before in the Cardiff South East constituency that existed between 1950 and 1974 but Penarth gained a mention in the constituency name in 1983. It has always looked an awkwardly shaped constituency on a map, a straggly narrow constituency running from North East to South West and always felt like the necessary awkward constituency that makes all of the surrounding constituencies optimum.
The central part, and core, of the seat bounded by the South Wales Main Line to the north, is largely post-industrial. It includes the port of Cardiff which was once the largest coal exporting port in the world, but is now the heart of a thriving waterfront based development around Cardiff Bay - which is also home to the Welsh Parliament or Senedd, opened in 2006, and the Millenium centre arts venue. The former East Moors steelworks has long gone, although two smaller steelworks and smaller industries still remain. There are plenty of modern appartments around the bay and rivers, but the core of this area is the working class districts of Butetown (previously the infamous Tiger Bay), Grangetown, Splott and Tremorfa, which are heavily Labour voting. Tiger Bay became one of the first multi cultural areas of Britain, when a range of nationality’s settled after arriving at the docks and the area is to this day home to much of the Asian and black population of Cardiff.
Across Cardiff Bay to the South West, Penarth sits on top of higher ground and looking across the Bay towards Penarth, one can see Victorian buildings on the skyline. Penarth grew sharply in the 19th century as a seaside resort for South Wales and still has a promenade and a pier. It grew from a settlement of 100 residents in 1851, to 6,000 in 1881 and to 14,000 in 1901. It was traditionally Conservative voting and would have contributed heavily to the scare that local Labour MP and future Prime Minister Jim Callaghan got in 1959 when his majority was reduced to 868. However, in recent years, Penarth has changed a bit due to its good transport links to Cardiff. It too has its share of flats looking across the bay which are popular with young professionals, and the town is a popular move out of Cardiff for families with young children. It’s 4 wards include one that is normally safe for Labour, Stanwell, in the West of the town, 1 that is normally safely Conservative- Plymouth ( but which itself was a close run with Labour in 2022 as the sitting Conservative councillors stood as Independents) on the coast south of the town centre, and 2 that have often been marginal and can be won by the Conservatives in good years for the party- Cornerswell and the central St Augustines, although Labour won both quite comfortably on 2022 and there are signs that both of those are trending Labour.
In the boundary changes, the third section of the current seat - the 3 most Eastern wards, containing about 25000 voters, Llanrumney, Rumney, Trowbridge and St Mellons, are removed. These are 1960s & 70s housing estates and are generally Labour leaning. The river Rhymney was formerly the historic boundary between Glamorgan and Monmouthshire, and so this area of the Welsh capital was arguabally in England until this historic anomaly was rectified in 1974, but you wont find many (if any) local residents who believe they are in England.
In return the seat gains two new, and very different, areas. The Cathays ward, which is effectively Cardiff’s city centre ward ( and the transfer of which has led to the neighbouring Cardiff Central constituency being renamed Cardiff East) and Dinas Powys, a large commuter village on the Cardiff to Barry road and inland of Penarth. This gives the new constituency the unusual mix of both the city centre and an area of rural farmland.
Overall this constituency if anything now looks a more natural geographical shape on paper, with the exception of the Cathays ward which provides a northern antennae to the seat. Cathays ward contains the centre of the capital including the main shopping hubs of Queen’s Street, St. Mary’s Street and St. David’s Shopping Centre, as well as Cardiff Castle, the southern end of Bute Park and the Principality Stadium. The fine civic building of Cathays Park are here and include the National Musuem of Wales, City Hall, the Crown Court and the Universities of Cardiff and South Wales. BBC Wales’ new headquarters recently opened on the site of the old Coach Station. The population of Cathays ward, however, is primarily based on the other side of the railway line from the civic buildings in Cathays and contains a large student population.
The other arrival, Dinas Powys, is a large affluent village and is the setting for the comfortable suburban ‘Billericay’ scenes in the South Wales comedy series Gavin and Stacey. It has a history of voting for Plaid Cymru councillors but will usually be carried by the Conservatives at general elections.
Despite the presence of Penarth and Dinas Powys, this seat has demographic indicators of a city student seat. 23% of people are aged between 16 and 24 ( 11th highest in England and Wales) and 24% of people are students. It has a relatively low percentage of people aged between 50-64 ( ranked 558th in England and Wales) Fully 40.7% of people here have degree level qualifications. It also has a relatively low percentage of owner occupiers and a high percentage of private renters ( 33.4%, ranking 43rd in England and Wales).
The new seat will have the highest non white population in Cardiff ( 24.4%) and there are significant Asian and black populations in Butetown and Grangetown
In the most recent local elections in 2022, Labour won all four of the Cardiff wards, and all 15 Cardiff city councillors in those wards and the Conservatives failed to top 10% of the vote in any of them.
The Vale of Glamorgan wards are somewhat different. Penarth elected 7 Labour councillors to 2 Conservatives. The 3 more rural Vale of Glamorgan wards included in the seat elected 3 Plaid Cymru councillors, 2 Conservatives, 1 Labour and 1 Independent. The Conservatives racked up 73% of the vote in the small community of Llandough just across the main road from Grangetown.
Overall this seat is pretty safe Labour. Jim Callaghan represented parts of this area for over 40 years, but the seat is more secure for Labour now than it was for much of Callaghan’s tenure. This seat perhaps in some ways tells the story of the changing appeal of the UK Labour Party. There are still some deprived areas in the constituency but there is a sizeable ethnic minority, and the dock land is now full of young urban metropolitan professionals in rented flats.
Callaghan was succeeded by Alun Michael , who was briefly First minister of Wales, and who represented this seat for 25 years and still holds elected office at the age of 80 as Police and Crime Commissioner for South Wales. Michael was succeeded by Stephen Doughty. Doughty won re election in 2019 by 12,700 votes and beat the Conservatives 54-29. The notional result following the boundary changes reduces that by about 1000, but this is now in the top 100 safest Labour seats and is safer than traditional valley strongholds like Ogmore, Islwyn and Neath.
