Post by Robert Waller on Jan 17, 2024 0:14:07 GMT
Original profile: greenhert. Boundary change comments based on those by Pete Whitehead. 2021 census figures for constituency: bjornhattan. Expansion, including closing paragraphs and updates, by myself
The West Suffolk parliamentary division was created in 1997, mostly from the Bury St Edmunds constituency which subsequently shifted eastwards. It consists of the majority of the district of the same name, which was formed from a merger of Forest Heath and St Edmundsbury councils in 2019.
In the boundary changes this seat will lose its Eastern panhandle (Bardwell, Barningham, Ixworth and Stanton wards) to Bury St Edmunds but gain Horringer and Ickworth Park in return, and the area around Clare from South Suffolk (the part of West Suffolk district currently included in that seat). There is little partisan effect as the notional numerical majority is reduced only slightly more than in line with the reduction in the electorate.
West Suffolk's largest town is Haverhill, a town that expanded in the second half of the 20th century to accommodate London overspill, in undistinguished estates and with a rather characterless centre. It is mainly a manufacturing town with relatively few claims to fame apart from being the site of the world's first laser-lit sculpture. Newmarket, on the other hand, is famous for its racecourse, the Tattersalls auction where racehorses are auctioned (still unofficially in guineas even though the guinea has not been in circulation since 1816 and also decimal currency was introduced as long ago as 1971), the National Horseracing Museum, and almost anything to do with racehorses. Within the context of local government, the two Newmarket parishes were once split between Suffolk and Cambridgeshire until the Local Government Act 1888 settled that issue, transferring both to Suffolk. Newmarket nearly forms a de facto exclave of Cambridgeshire and this was the main basis of its wish to move to Cambridgeshire when local government was being restructured; however their request to transfer to Cambridgeshire was ultimately denied. Mildenhall, meanwhile, is famous for two significant ‘RAF’ bases, RAF Mildenhall and RAF Lakenheath nearby (they wholly or mainly support US Air Force operations currently the 48th Fighter Wing and 100th Air Refueling (sic) Wing respectively.
This factor partially explains some of this seat’s perhaps unexpected demographic figures. In employment terms West Suffolk had one of the highest proportions of people in the 2011 census working in "other" industries - 12.2% - and the proportion of people working in manufacturing was considerably above average -12.4%. The proportion of people working in routine/semi-routing occupations in 2021 was 27.2%, significantly higher than average. This reaches over 34% in Haverhill East & South MSOA and over 32% in Haverhill North. It is also over 30% in North Newmarket, Studlands & Exning and 31.5% in Mildenhall. The rural areas have somewhat more in professional and managerial occupations but nowhere does that figure exceed 40%, and the arrival of the Clare and Cavendish area from South Suffolk (39%) offers a slight boost to an overall level still below the national average.
Owner-occupation rates are low for rural Suffolk due to the large number of private renters, particularly amongst the air force personnel. For example over 39% in Lakenheath MSOA is in that sector, and of course it rises to between 73% and 84% in the housing associated with the camp. Qualification levels are not particularly high, those with degrees among the bottom quartile of constituencies in England and Wales. In Mildenhall and Haverhill the proportion of graduates struggles to get above 20%. In Lakenheath 35% report no educational qualifications and in Mildenhall 29%, though this is probably strongly affected by the nationality of the residents. In Lakenheath 42% state a non-UK identity only, as do 17% in Mildenhall. 36.4% in Lakenheath are US citizens, 10.6& in Mildenhall, and indeed 6.1% in the whole of the West Suffolk authority.
West Suffolk constituency has been Conservative since its creation in 1997 although the Conservative majority over Labour that year was 1,867 and it gave the Referendum Party one of its best results in the country, 7.6%. From 1997 to 2010 Richard Spring (now Baron Spring), who had been Conservative MP for Bury St Edmunds from 1992 to 1997, represented this seat. Since 2010 the Conservative MP for this seat has been the former (‘Covid’) Health Secretary Matt Hancock. There has been a strong Eurosceptic streak within this constituency since its creation and UKIP achieved its best result in Suffolk there in 2015, 21.7%. This has helped West Suffolk become Suffolk's safest Conservative seat.
Although this is true at a parliamentary level, this is not the case locally. In the most recent West Suffolk council elections, in May 2023, Labour returned five councillors in Haverhill – two each within the double member East and South wards and one of the two in West, sharing with a Conservative but narrowly taking the most votes (by 4 - the second Labour was 4 behind that). Labour also gained Withersfield ward just to the north of Haverhill, their first ever victory in a place that has been Tory since at least 1973. Lone Labour candidates also finished top of the poll in Newmarket East and Newmarket West, and second out of two members in the other Newmarket ward, North; the other elected there was an Independent.
Independents won plenty of other wards too, including the whole north western corner of the District including all three Mildenham wards and Lakenheath, along with the final Haverhill ward, South East. The Tories were reduced to retaining a handful of rural wards such as Chedburgh & Chevington and Whepstead & Wickhambrook, along with the partial incomer from South Suffolk constituency, Clare, Hundon & Kevingdon. Adding up the total in May 2023 across all wards within the new boundaries, Adam Gray found 38% for the Tories, 32% Independent, and 22% Labour; Lib Dems and Greens are not strong in this neck of the woods and each polled below 5% having entered very few candidates.
The unconvincing local election results, which include some very low turnouts in 2023 – 20% in Haverhill East, 17% in Haverhill South, 22% in Mildenhall Heath – will probably not mean that West Suffolk really is vulnerable in a general election. Matt Hancock is retiring from the Commons (aged 45), and although his replacement as Conservative candidate is another figure who has known controversy, the former adviser to Theresa May (e.g. the 2017 election) Nick Timothy, the profile has undoubtedly been lowered.
This is a somewhat odd constituency. Parts of it do not feel very British, never mind like an archetype of affluent rural England. The urban areas, apart from parts of Newmarket, which is right on the edge of the seat, would attract few tourists. Yet its working class occupational profile, and its generally low educational qualifications, nowadays join with its connections with the realm of defence as a contraindication of enthusiasm for the present incarnation of the Labour party. Nor are there any signs of Liberal Democrat or Green party strength, either to challenge or to be squeezed. In 2024 the Conservatives lost a full 30% of their 64% notional share in 2019, but Nick Timothy still held on by 3,247 from Labour - not an impressive majority, but they had very few substantial leads anywhere that year.
2011 Census, old boundaries
Age 65+ 16.9% 311/650
Owner-occupied 62.1% 448/650
Private rented 18.7% 147/650
Social rented 15.4% 336/650
White 93.8% 132/650
Black 1.9% 466/650
Asian 2.6% 578/650
Passport N America/Caribbean 7.9% 1/650*
Employed other 12.2% 1/650*
Managerial & professional 28.7%
Routine & Semi-routine 29.8%
Degree level 20.2 % 503/650
No qualifications 25.0% 253/650
Students 5.3% 617/650
*US Air Force at Lakenheath
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 19.1% 289/575
Owner occupied 60.4% 389/575
Private rented 23.6% 135/575
Social rented 15.9% 249/575
White 90.8% 282/575
Black 2.0% 237/575
Asian 2.7% 351/575
Managerial & professional 31.2% 320/575
Routine & Semi-routine 27.2% 167/575
Degree level 26.6% 448/575
No qualifications 22.5% 95/575
Students 4.4% 514/575
General Election 2024: West Suffolk
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Nick Timothy 15,814 34.3 –30.0
Labour Rebecca Denness 12,567 27.2 +5.0
Reform UK David Bull 9,623 20.8 N/A
Liberal Democrats Henry Batchelor 4,284 9.3 +0.3
Green Mark Ereira-Guyer 2,910 6.3 +1.8
Independent Katie Parker 485 1.1 N/A
Independent Luke O'Brien 345 0.7 N/A
SDP Ivan Kinsman 133 0.3 N/A
C Majority 3,247 7.1 –35.1
Turnout 46,331 60.1 –4.6
Registered electors 77,149
Conservative hold
Swing 17.5 C to Lab
General Election 2019: West Suffolk
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Matt Hancock 33,842 65.8 +4.6
Labour Claire Unwin 10,648 20.7 -7.5
Liberal Democrats Elfreda Tealby-Watson 4,685 9.1 +4.9
Green Donald Allwright 2,262 4.4 +2.6
C Majority 23,194 45.1 +12.1
Turnout 51,437 64.1 -2.8
Conservative hold
Swing 6.1 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
West Suffolk consists of
89.5% of West Suffolk
4.6% of South Suffolk
2.0% of Bury St Edmunds
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_107_West%20Suffolk_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional result (Rallings & Thrasher)
The West Suffolk parliamentary division was created in 1997, mostly from the Bury St Edmunds constituency which subsequently shifted eastwards. It consists of the majority of the district of the same name, which was formed from a merger of Forest Heath and St Edmundsbury councils in 2019.
In the boundary changes this seat will lose its Eastern panhandle (Bardwell, Barningham, Ixworth and Stanton wards) to Bury St Edmunds but gain Horringer and Ickworth Park in return, and the area around Clare from South Suffolk (the part of West Suffolk district currently included in that seat). There is little partisan effect as the notional numerical majority is reduced only slightly more than in line with the reduction in the electorate.
West Suffolk's largest town is Haverhill, a town that expanded in the second half of the 20th century to accommodate London overspill, in undistinguished estates and with a rather characterless centre. It is mainly a manufacturing town with relatively few claims to fame apart from being the site of the world's first laser-lit sculpture. Newmarket, on the other hand, is famous for its racecourse, the Tattersalls auction where racehorses are auctioned (still unofficially in guineas even though the guinea has not been in circulation since 1816 and also decimal currency was introduced as long ago as 1971), the National Horseracing Museum, and almost anything to do with racehorses. Within the context of local government, the two Newmarket parishes were once split between Suffolk and Cambridgeshire until the Local Government Act 1888 settled that issue, transferring both to Suffolk. Newmarket nearly forms a de facto exclave of Cambridgeshire and this was the main basis of its wish to move to Cambridgeshire when local government was being restructured; however their request to transfer to Cambridgeshire was ultimately denied. Mildenhall, meanwhile, is famous for two significant ‘RAF’ bases, RAF Mildenhall and RAF Lakenheath nearby (they wholly or mainly support US Air Force operations currently the 48th Fighter Wing and 100th Air Refueling (sic) Wing respectively.
This factor partially explains some of this seat’s perhaps unexpected demographic figures. In employment terms West Suffolk had one of the highest proportions of people in the 2011 census working in "other" industries - 12.2% - and the proportion of people working in manufacturing was considerably above average -12.4%. The proportion of people working in routine/semi-routing occupations in 2021 was 27.2%, significantly higher than average. This reaches over 34% in Haverhill East & South MSOA and over 32% in Haverhill North. It is also over 30% in North Newmarket, Studlands & Exning and 31.5% in Mildenhall. The rural areas have somewhat more in professional and managerial occupations but nowhere does that figure exceed 40%, and the arrival of the Clare and Cavendish area from South Suffolk (39%) offers a slight boost to an overall level still below the national average.
Owner-occupation rates are low for rural Suffolk due to the large number of private renters, particularly amongst the air force personnel. For example over 39% in Lakenheath MSOA is in that sector, and of course it rises to between 73% and 84% in the housing associated with the camp. Qualification levels are not particularly high, those with degrees among the bottom quartile of constituencies in England and Wales. In Mildenhall and Haverhill the proportion of graduates struggles to get above 20%. In Lakenheath 35% report no educational qualifications and in Mildenhall 29%, though this is probably strongly affected by the nationality of the residents. In Lakenheath 42% state a non-UK identity only, as do 17% in Mildenhall. 36.4% in Lakenheath are US citizens, 10.6& in Mildenhall, and indeed 6.1% in the whole of the West Suffolk authority.
West Suffolk constituency has been Conservative since its creation in 1997 although the Conservative majority over Labour that year was 1,867 and it gave the Referendum Party one of its best results in the country, 7.6%. From 1997 to 2010 Richard Spring (now Baron Spring), who had been Conservative MP for Bury St Edmunds from 1992 to 1997, represented this seat. Since 2010 the Conservative MP for this seat has been the former (‘Covid’) Health Secretary Matt Hancock. There has been a strong Eurosceptic streak within this constituency since its creation and UKIP achieved its best result in Suffolk there in 2015, 21.7%. This has helped West Suffolk become Suffolk's safest Conservative seat.
Although this is true at a parliamentary level, this is not the case locally. In the most recent West Suffolk council elections, in May 2023, Labour returned five councillors in Haverhill – two each within the double member East and South wards and one of the two in West, sharing with a Conservative but narrowly taking the most votes (by 4 - the second Labour was 4 behind that). Labour also gained Withersfield ward just to the north of Haverhill, their first ever victory in a place that has been Tory since at least 1973. Lone Labour candidates also finished top of the poll in Newmarket East and Newmarket West, and second out of two members in the other Newmarket ward, North; the other elected there was an Independent.
Independents won plenty of other wards too, including the whole north western corner of the District including all three Mildenham wards and Lakenheath, along with the final Haverhill ward, South East. The Tories were reduced to retaining a handful of rural wards such as Chedburgh & Chevington and Whepstead & Wickhambrook, along with the partial incomer from South Suffolk constituency, Clare, Hundon & Kevingdon. Adding up the total in May 2023 across all wards within the new boundaries, Adam Gray found 38% for the Tories, 32% Independent, and 22% Labour; Lib Dems and Greens are not strong in this neck of the woods and each polled below 5% having entered very few candidates.
The unconvincing local election results, which include some very low turnouts in 2023 – 20% in Haverhill East, 17% in Haverhill South, 22% in Mildenhall Heath – will probably not mean that West Suffolk really is vulnerable in a general election. Matt Hancock is retiring from the Commons (aged 45), and although his replacement as Conservative candidate is another figure who has known controversy, the former adviser to Theresa May (e.g. the 2017 election) Nick Timothy, the profile has undoubtedly been lowered.
This is a somewhat odd constituency. Parts of it do not feel very British, never mind like an archetype of affluent rural England. The urban areas, apart from parts of Newmarket, which is right on the edge of the seat, would attract few tourists. Yet its working class occupational profile, and its generally low educational qualifications, nowadays join with its connections with the realm of defence as a contraindication of enthusiasm for the present incarnation of the Labour party. Nor are there any signs of Liberal Democrat or Green party strength, either to challenge or to be squeezed. In 2024 the Conservatives lost a full 30% of their 64% notional share in 2019, but Nick Timothy still held on by 3,247 from Labour - not an impressive majority, but they had very few substantial leads anywhere that year.
2011 Census, old boundaries
Age 65+ 16.9% 311/650
Owner-occupied 62.1% 448/650
Private rented 18.7% 147/650
Social rented 15.4% 336/650
White 93.8% 132/650
Black 1.9% 466/650
Asian 2.6% 578/650
Passport N America/Caribbean 7.9% 1/650*
Employed other 12.2% 1/650*
Managerial & professional 28.7%
Routine & Semi-routine 29.8%
Degree level 20.2 % 503/650
No qualifications 25.0% 253/650
Students 5.3% 617/650
*US Air Force at Lakenheath
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 19.1% 289/575
Owner occupied 60.4% 389/575
Private rented 23.6% 135/575
Social rented 15.9% 249/575
White 90.8% 282/575
Black 2.0% 237/575
Asian 2.7% 351/575
Managerial & professional 31.2% 320/575
Routine & Semi-routine 27.2% 167/575
Degree level 26.6% 448/575
No qualifications 22.5% 95/575
Students 4.4% 514/575
General Election 2024: West Suffolk
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Nick Timothy 15,814 34.3 –30.0
Labour Rebecca Denness 12,567 27.2 +5.0
Reform UK David Bull 9,623 20.8 N/A
Liberal Democrats Henry Batchelor 4,284 9.3 +0.3
Green Mark Ereira-Guyer 2,910 6.3 +1.8
Independent Katie Parker 485 1.1 N/A
Independent Luke O'Brien 345 0.7 N/A
SDP Ivan Kinsman 133 0.3 N/A
C Majority 3,247 7.1 –35.1
Turnout 46,331 60.1 –4.6
Registered electors 77,149
Conservative hold
Swing 17.5 C to Lab
General Election 2019: West Suffolk
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Matt Hancock 33,842 65.8 +4.6
Labour Claire Unwin 10,648 20.7 -7.5
Liberal Democrats Elfreda Tealby-Watson 4,685 9.1 +4.9
Green Donald Allwright 2,262 4.4 +2.6
C Majority 23,194 45.1 +12.1
Turnout 51,437 64.1 -2.8
Conservative hold
Swing 6.1 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
West Suffolk consists of
89.5% of West Suffolk
4.6% of South Suffolk
2.0% of Bury St Edmunds
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_107_West%20Suffolk_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional result (Rallings & Thrasher)
| Con | 31738 | 64.3% |
| Lab | 10941 | 22.2% |
| LD | 4462 | 9.0% |
| Grn | 2199 | 4.5% |
| C Maj | 20797 | 42.2% |