Post by Robert Waller on Jan 15, 2024 22:58:54 GMT
This is adapted from previous profiles by jamie of the four previous seats that make up this new constituency, woven together by me. Commentary on boundary changes is based on that by Pete Whitehead, along with his notional calculations, plus local election and census updates by myself
There are very major boundary changes affecting the largest city in the North East of England. Not for the first time, the constituency to be named Newcastle upon Tyne North bears little relationship to the current seat of that name. At least this time the largest element of the 'new' seat does come from the existing seat - over 25,000 voters in Fawdon, the 21st century private estates of Newcastle Great Park in Castle ward, Kingston Park and parts of Gosforth. To this are added around 20,000 voters in the Jesmond, Dene, and South Gosforth areas from Newcastle East, another 15,000 or so in Kenton and parts of Gosforth from Central and 16,000 in Benton and Longbenton from North Tyneside. The latter is fairly working class but overall this seat unites much of the middle class belt in North Newcastle, reuniting all of Gosforth. Therefore while it is a quite different seat, it will have essentially the same political character - a safe Labour seat but with a more sizeable Conservative minority than in the other Newcastle seats and a certain Lib Dem potential and local government strength.
Technically Newcastle upon Tyne North is a new seat, containing the majority of no previous seat, but its largest section comes from the former Newcastle North and it contains more of that seat (42.8%) than any other new seat does, so it is appropriate to see it as its successor, and start our survey with the elements taken from it. Newcastle upon Tyne North was previously a safe Labour seat, though more marginal than the other 2 seats covering the city. The Labour Party had a 7% majority over the Liberal Democrats in 2010, and a 12% majority over the Conservatives in 2019. Within the redrawn North, its previous version covered the Kingston Park portion of Kingston Park South & Newbiggin Hall ward, a late 20th century housing development which also includes many major retailers. The North constituency also donates most of middle class Gosforth and working class Fawdon. This includes the numerous estates and parks of North Gosforth as well as the more urban South Gosforth. Both areas have leaned Conservative (in general elections only). In contrast, Fawdon and to some extent the Coxlodge area in-between are much more Labour leaning. While the Conservatives are competitive in Kingston Park, and have on occasion outright won much of Gosforth, they are unlikely to be able to seriously challenge here for many years to come.
Secondly, looking at the parts brought in from Newcastle East, in addition to the part of South Gosforth between Ilford Road and South Gosforth stations, these are centred on the Jesmond and Jesmond (Dene) areas, and almost reach the city centre near Jesmond station in a southern salient of the new boundaries of the North constituency. Both mix students with predominantly middle class private housing, the latter becoming more numerous as you get further away from the city centre. The combination of students and public sector workers leads to strong Labour support, though the longstanding middle class residents are more Conservative friendly and decades ago made these wards safely Conservative (and at present largely vote Liberal Democrat in council elections).
Thirdly, the parts brought in from the Newcastle Central division (oddly further away from the city centre than Jesmond is): most of Kenton, largely Labour voting, and with 39% of housing still social rented, though this is somewhat more upmarket than average for Newcastle. Finally, the constituency has donated largely middle class western Gosforth. While Labour significantly over-perform with middle class voters throughout the city, Gosforth is the one part where the Conservatives are closer to their ‘natural’ vote. As a consequence, western Gosforth is the only part of this section where the Conservatives have historically been able to outpoll Labour in general elections, and by a decent margin in the decidedly posh south western part.
Finally, we come to the section taken from North Tyneside metropolitan borough (and constituency), such as the communities of Forest Hall and Longbenton. These are largely post-war developments which include both council housing and middle class housing estates. While the Conservatives have been competitive in the more middle class parts in the past, Labour are currently well ahead both locally and nationally here now, the council estates in the Benton area (Longbenton MSOA is 38% social rented and 48% owner occupied). Adjacent to Longbenton are the offices of the DWP and HMRC, major local employers.
The Conservatives must have carried some areas within the new bounds of Newcastle North in recent general elections; after all, they did poll over 15,000 votes within the existing constituency in December 2019. However, in local elections for Newcastle City Council they haven’t won a single seat anywhere since 1992, when they were victorious in Kenton and North Jesmond. In the most recent elections in May 2023 there was an almost even split in the new North between Labour (37.9%) and Liberal Democrats (36.8%), with the Tories on 14.2% and the Greens on 8.2%. The wards taken by the Lib Dems were Castle (a stronghold of theirs since 1982 with a single Labour win interrupting the sequence in 2015), Gosforth, which they have win ever since 2004, Parklands (always since 1982), Dene & South Gosforth (since 1992), Fawdon & West Gosforth (since 2004 except for Labour in 2015) and finally North Jesmond, actually a gain from Labour in 2023. Labour came first in South Jesmond, Kenton and Kingston Park & Newbiggin Hall (partly in the new North). Therefore in the Newcastle city section of North on its new lines the Lib Dems were actually ahead, but Labour won both the North Tyneside wards, Benton and Longbenton, by huge margins. The Liberal Democrats didn’t even stand in either, so this allowed Labour to nose ahead in the aggregate. The local elections in Newcastle are in any case not very good guides to parliamentary elections, as the best the LDs have done in any general election contest in the city since 2010 is 10.5% in East in 2019.
Looking at the details of the 2021 census, it is clear that the new Newcastle North is a very different animal from the seat which has borne that name since 1983. It has more private rented housing (particularly close to the city centre) and less social rented. It has much higher educational qualifications and more than twice as many full time students. It is much more white-collar in its occupational makeup. The three MSOAs covering Gosforth are the most high class in socio-economic terms, not only within the city of Newcastle but in the whole of the North East. The professional and managerial proportions are 54.6% in Coxlodge & West Gosforth (with over 30% ‘higher’ prof/man), 54.5% in South Gosforth and 53.4% in North Gosforth. By contrast around 30% in Fawdon South and Kenton work in routine and semi-routine jobs and 28% in Longbenton.
The constituency-wide average for people with educational degrees is 44%, which places the new Newcastle North 75th out of 575 seats in England and Wales. This reaches 60.7% in South Gosforth and 59.9% in South Gosforth & West Gosforth, and in the OAs just south of Salters Road in the latter, is generally over 70%. By contrast in Kenton 23% have no qualifications and in the high social rented Fawdon South 25.4% , but this is untypical in a constituency which lies in the bottom 50 overall in this category. One reason is the large number of students: an absolute majority in North Jesmond (56.0%), especially around Lyndhurst Avenue where the rates range between 77% and 87%, and South Jesmond & Sandyford (50.4%, especially high in the latter).
Overall, the characteristics of Newcastle North now will be similar to other largely middle class and partially academic parts of cities such as Sheffield Hallam and Manchester Withington. Once solidly Conservative, these are now anything but that; and have more recently been won by Labour even when (because?) there have been national Tory governments elected. As the Liberal Democrat local government success here has never been translated into anything like parliamentary success, as in Hallam, it looks like the new North will be a very safe Labour seat for the foreseeable future, and certainly in 2024.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 16.9% 379/575
Owner occupied 61.2% 383/575
Private rented 22.2% 159/575
Social rented 16.6% 226/575
White 87.0% 331/575
Black 1.5% 279/575
Asian 7.1% 216/575
Managerial & professional 39.2% 130/575
Routine & Semi-routine 15.7% 513/575
Degree level 44.0% 75/575
No qualifications 12.4% 531/575
Students 17.5% 30/575
General Election 2019: Newcastle upon Tyne North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Catherine McKinnell 21,354 45.4 -10.0
Conservative Mark Lehain 15,589 33.2 -0.7
Liberal Democrats Nick Cott 4,357 9.3 +4.0
Brexit Party Richard Ogden 4,331 9.2 N/A
Green Alistair Ford 1,368 2.9 +1.8
Lab Majority 5,765 12.3 -9.2
2019 electorate 68,486
Turnout 46,999 68.6 -3.8
Labour hold
Swing 4.6 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Newcastle upon Tyne North consists of
42.8% of Newcastle upon Tyne North
28.5% of Newcastle upon Tyne East
21.8% of Newcastle upon Tyne Central
20.3% of North Tyneside
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-east/North%20East_200_Newcastle%20upon%20Tyne%20North_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries Rallings & Thrasher
There are very major boundary changes affecting the largest city in the North East of England. Not for the first time, the constituency to be named Newcastle upon Tyne North bears little relationship to the current seat of that name. At least this time the largest element of the 'new' seat does come from the existing seat - over 25,000 voters in Fawdon, the 21st century private estates of Newcastle Great Park in Castle ward, Kingston Park and parts of Gosforth. To this are added around 20,000 voters in the Jesmond, Dene, and South Gosforth areas from Newcastle East, another 15,000 or so in Kenton and parts of Gosforth from Central and 16,000 in Benton and Longbenton from North Tyneside. The latter is fairly working class but overall this seat unites much of the middle class belt in North Newcastle, reuniting all of Gosforth. Therefore while it is a quite different seat, it will have essentially the same political character - a safe Labour seat but with a more sizeable Conservative minority than in the other Newcastle seats and a certain Lib Dem potential and local government strength.
Technically Newcastle upon Tyne North is a new seat, containing the majority of no previous seat, but its largest section comes from the former Newcastle North and it contains more of that seat (42.8%) than any other new seat does, so it is appropriate to see it as its successor, and start our survey with the elements taken from it. Newcastle upon Tyne North was previously a safe Labour seat, though more marginal than the other 2 seats covering the city. The Labour Party had a 7% majority over the Liberal Democrats in 2010, and a 12% majority over the Conservatives in 2019. Within the redrawn North, its previous version covered the Kingston Park portion of Kingston Park South & Newbiggin Hall ward, a late 20th century housing development which also includes many major retailers. The North constituency also donates most of middle class Gosforth and working class Fawdon. This includes the numerous estates and parks of North Gosforth as well as the more urban South Gosforth. Both areas have leaned Conservative (in general elections only). In contrast, Fawdon and to some extent the Coxlodge area in-between are much more Labour leaning. While the Conservatives are competitive in Kingston Park, and have on occasion outright won much of Gosforth, they are unlikely to be able to seriously challenge here for many years to come.
Secondly, looking at the parts brought in from Newcastle East, in addition to the part of South Gosforth between Ilford Road and South Gosforth stations, these are centred on the Jesmond and Jesmond (Dene) areas, and almost reach the city centre near Jesmond station in a southern salient of the new boundaries of the North constituency. Both mix students with predominantly middle class private housing, the latter becoming more numerous as you get further away from the city centre. The combination of students and public sector workers leads to strong Labour support, though the longstanding middle class residents are more Conservative friendly and decades ago made these wards safely Conservative (and at present largely vote Liberal Democrat in council elections).
Thirdly, the parts brought in from the Newcastle Central division (oddly further away from the city centre than Jesmond is): most of Kenton, largely Labour voting, and with 39% of housing still social rented, though this is somewhat more upmarket than average for Newcastle. Finally, the constituency has donated largely middle class western Gosforth. While Labour significantly over-perform with middle class voters throughout the city, Gosforth is the one part where the Conservatives are closer to their ‘natural’ vote. As a consequence, western Gosforth is the only part of this section where the Conservatives have historically been able to outpoll Labour in general elections, and by a decent margin in the decidedly posh south western part.
Finally, we come to the section taken from North Tyneside metropolitan borough (and constituency), such as the communities of Forest Hall and Longbenton. These are largely post-war developments which include both council housing and middle class housing estates. While the Conservatives have been competitive in the more middle class parts in the past, Labour are currently well ahead both locally and nationally here now, the council estates in the Benton area (Longbenton MSOA is 38% social rented and 48% owner occupied). Adjacent to Longbenton are the offices of the DWP and HMRC, major local employers.
The Conservatives must have carried some areas within the new bounds of Newcastle North in recent general elections; after all, they did poll over 15,000 votes within the existing constituency in December 2019. However, in local elections for Newcastle City Council they haven’t won a single seat anywhere since 1992, when they were victorious in Kenton and North Jesmond. In the most recent elections in May 2023 there was an almost even split in the new North between Labour (37.9%) and Liberal Democrats (36.8%), with the Tories on 14.2% and the Greens on 8.2%. The wards taken by the Lib Dems were Castle (a stronghold of theirs since 1982 with a single Labour win interrupting the sequence in 2015), Gosforth, which they have win ever since 2004, Parklands (always since 1982), Dene & South Gosforth (since 1992), Fawdon & West Gosforth (since 2004 except for Labour in 2015) and finally North Jesmond, actually a gain from Labour in 2023. Labour came first in South Jesmond, Kenton and Kingston Park & Newbiggin Hall (partly in the new North). Therefore in the Newcastle city section of North on its new lines the Lib Dems were actually ahead, but Labour won both the North Tyneside wards, Benton and Longbenton, by huge margins. The Liberal Democrats didn’t even stand in either, so this allowed Labour to nose ahead in the aggregate. The local elections in Newcastle are in any case not very good guides to parliamentary elections, as the best the LDs have done in any general election contest in the city since 2010 is 10.5% in East in 2019.
Looking at the details of the 2021 census, it is clear that the new Newcastle North is a very different animal from the seat which has borne that name since 1983. It has more private rented housing (particularly close to the city centre) and less social rented. It has much higher educational qualifications and more than twice as many full time students. It is much more white-collar in its occupational makeup. The three MSOAs covering Gosforth are the most high class in socio-economic terms, not only within the city of Newcastle but in the whole of the North East. The professional and managerial proportions are 54.6% in Coxlodge & West Gosforth (with over 30% ‘higher’ prof/man), 54.5% in South Gosforth and 53.4% in North Gosforth. By contrast around 30% in Fawdon South and Kenton work in routine and semi-routine jobs and 28% in Longbenton.
The constituency-wide average for people with educational degrees is 44%, which places the new Newcastle North 75th out of 575 seats in England and Wales. This reaches 60.7% in South Gosforth and 59.9% in South Gosforth & West Gosforth, and in the OAs just south of Salters Road in the latter, is generally over 70%. By contrast in Kenton 23% have no qualifications and in the high social rented Fawdon South 25.4% , but this is untypical in a constituency which lies in the bottom 50 overall in this category. One reason is the large number of students: an absolute majority in North Jesmond (56.0%), especially around Lyndhurst Avenue where the rates range between 77% and 87%, and South Jesmond & Sandyford (50.4%, especially high in the latter).
Overall, the characteristics of Newcastle North now will be similar to other largely middle class and partially academic parts of cities such as Sheffield Hallam and Manchester Withington. Once solidly Conservative, these are now anything but that; and have more recently been won by Labour even when (because?) there have been national Tory governments elected. As the Liberal Democrat local government success here has never been translated into anything like parliamentary success, as in Hallam, it looks like the new North will be a very safe Labour seat for the foreseeable future, and certainly in 2024.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 16.9% 379/575
Owner occupied 61.2% 383/575
Private rented 22.2% 159/575
Social rented 16.6% 226/575
White 87.0% 331/575
Black 1.5% 279/575
Asian 7.1% 216/575
Managerial & professional 39.2% 130/575
Routine & Semi-routine 15.7% 513/575
Degree level 44.0% 75/575
No qualifications 12.4% 531/575
Students 17.5% 30/575
General Election 2019: Newcastle upon Tyne North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Catherine McKinnell 21,354 45.4 -10.0
Conservative Mark Lehain 15,589 33.2 -0.7
Liberal Democrats Nick Cott 4,357 9.3 +4.0
Brexit Party Richard Ogden 4,331 9.2 N/A
Green Alistair Ford 1,368 2.9 +1.8
Lab Majority 5,765 12.3 -9.2
2019 electorate 68,486
Turnout 46,999 68.6 -3.8
Labour hold
Swing 4.6 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Newcastle upon Tyne North consists of
42.8% of Newcastle upon Tyne North
28.5% of Newcastle upon Tyne East
21.8% of Newcastle upon Tyne Central
20.3% of North Tyneside
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-east/North%20East_200_Newcastle%20upon%20Tyne%20North_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries Rallings & Thrasher
| Lab | 24030 | 44.4% |
| Con | 17207 | 31.8% |
| LD | 7595 | 14.0% |
| BxP | 3118 | 5.8% |
| Grn | 2193 | 4.1% |
| Majority | 6823 | 12.6% |