Germany's alternative path

[adlai52]

The role of the military in Germany and the Kaiser certainly can be overegged, looking back it is pretty clear that both France and Russia (with Serbia in tow) were eager to provoke a war - bit would this point have been reached if Frederick III had lived? Is that the point of departure/divergence that gives you a German foreign policy focuses on maintaining a balance of power in Europe? Potentially maintaining the League of the Three Emperors or some other mechanism to isolate France and avoid confrontation with Russia?

[islington]

Jan 16, 2024 18:08:08 GMT adlai52 said:

The role of the military in Germany and the Kaiser certainly can be overegged, looking back it is pretty clear that both France and Russia (with Serbia in tow) were eager to provoke a war - bit would this point have been reached if Frederick III had lived? Is that the point of departure/divergence that gives you a German foreign policy focuses on maintaining a balance of power in Europe? Potentially maintaining the League of the Three Emperors or some other mechanism to isolate France and avoid confrontation with Russia?

Well, the bit in bold is certainly the nub of my argument. It's what the pilot did until he was dropped in 1890, whereupon the kaiser decided that a pact with Russia was not necessary (and a Franco-Russian entente followed rapidly).

Actually, here's an even bolder thought for imperial Germany around this time. How about trying for some kind of accommodation with France?

I know the argument against this is obvious: France was smarting from her losses in 1871 and much of her domestic politics was animated by a revanchist spirit. But hear me out.

Really, in 1871 Germany had gained from France all she could reasonably want: France had been humiliated on the battlefield and stripped of territory. What more was there to take? So Germany would have been in a strong position to hold out a friendly hand and, I'd suggest, offer (i) German diplomatic backing for France's efforts to secure and extend her overseas possessions, and (ii) substantial economic and trade concessions designed to support the French economy (this would be the declared objective) and to make it more and more reliant on Germany (no need to mention this bit).

I'm not saying it would have worked. Maybe it wouldn't. But if it had, it would have been a brilliant coup because without France, neither Britain nor Russia could hope to assemble an effective anti-German coalition. 

So in my view, even if the likelihood of success was very small, it was worth a try. 

[Devil Wincarnate]

Germany in 1914 was far more divided than is remembered. And not merely between Left and Right. The Bismarck towers were erected as a protest by parts of the Right against Wilhelm II. Not to mention the lingering effect of the Kulturkampf, which arguably wasn't resolved until the late 1940s. And for all the talk of Germany's industrial and economic power, it was Wilhelm's ability to demand a navy that nearly brought economic chaos to Germany in 1906.

[Peter Wilkinson]

Feb 29, 2024 23:38:14 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Germany in 1914 was far more divided than is remembered. And not merely between Left and Right. The Bismarck towers were erected as a protest by parts of the Right against Wilhelm II. Not to mention the lingering effect of the Kulturkampf, which arguably wasn't resolved until the late 1940s. And for all the talk of Germany's industrial and economic power, it was Wilhelm's ability to demand a navy that nearly brought economic chaos to Germany in 1906.

Arguably, considering Angela Merkel and Friedrich Merz, it still hasn't been resolved.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Mar 1, 2024 11:44:43 GMT Peter Wilkinson said:

Feb 29, 2024 23:38:14 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Germany in 1914 was far more divided than is remembered. And not merely between Left and Right. The Bismarck towers were erected as a protest by parts of the Right against Wilhelm II. Not to mention the lingering effect of the Kulturkampf, which arguably wasn't resolved until the late 1940s. And for all the talk of Germany's industrial and economic power, it was Wilhelm's ability to demand a navy that nearly brought economic chaos to Germany in 1906.

Arguably, considering Angela Merkel and Friedrich Merz, it still hasn't been resolved.

There's a case for that.  But the destruction of the Junker class and the removal of half of Germany's Protestant belt westwards, as well as the Catholic understanding that Zentrum was no longer a credible vehicle, were the decisive moves.

Although it's interesting that Merkel was always positioned as being an political outsider as an Ossi Prod woman, as opposed to the Establishment Catholic Merz- but promoted as her successors two classic Establishment Catholics in AKK and Laschet, and built the career of Mega-Establishment Ursula von der Leyen.

[Devil Wincarnate]

It should be noted as well that one single economic policy had more of an impact on German politics at the time than any other- The Marriage of Rye and Iron.  The Junkers east of the Elbe were kept afloat by heavy agricultural protectionism of a type that not existed before.  The end result- a working class angry that they now had to pay more for food to support a boss class hundreds of miles away, and zero incentive for agricultural innovation.  Basically, Corn Laws decades on from their abolition here.

A related point concerns Landflucht (flight from the land) and Ostflucht (flight from the east).  These primitive and backwards conditions in the East in particular forced hordes of people off the land, where semi-medieval servitude still essentially existed.  East Prussia lost 3 million people in 20 years.  Theodor Fontane reported that Berliners would move house if they noticed too many Silesian accents around.

[stodge]

I'm not quite sure if the premise of the thread is no WW1 or no German involvement in WW1.

The potential for a major European conflict was in place by the end of the 19th Century. Alliances were formed which, rather like NATO and the Warsaw Pact later, while predicated on maintaining the peace would, if failing, ensure war.

The Balkans were unresolved - there had been two significant regional conflicts in 1912 and 1913 - and the likelihood of further conflicts between the various states was ever present.

Of course, that's what happened in 1914 but even if Franz Ferdinand had avoided death in Sarajevo that June day, something else somewhere else wpould have triggered a new conflict so the question then becomes how you can keep it within the Balkans and not directly draw in Austria-Hungary and Russia. To be fair, murdering the heir to the Austrian throne is a pretty good way of "drawing in" Vienna.

Those alternate histories which have for example offered a rapid Central Powers victory via a textbook Schlieffen Plan or hesitation in England or whatever generally argue all victory would have bought Imperial Germany is time.

It's possible the Austrian Empire could have reformed under Emperor Karl but the nationalist tendencies within the federation which formed the Dual Monarchy won't be quietened for long.

As we've seen elsewhere, industrialisation and economic growth create political and social tensions within rigid autocracies - there's a growing middle class which comes to demand a greater say in the running of the country. We have two possible scenarios - a "France" by which the middle classes eventually get strong enough to force political change or a "China" where the middle classes are bought off by continuing prosperity.

A continuing Imperial Germany would therefore have needed further expansion either globally or within Europe to maintain economic and political growth and stability. Assuming Russia has avoided Communism, the notion of a broadly social democratic post-Imperial German Republic in the 1930s or 1940s isn't fanciful. We could argue such a state would rebuild relations with Britain and France and act as a bulwark to whatever Russia existed.

The problem is Germany wouldn't be immune from whatever natiionalist upheavals came to shape the Austro-Hungarian state. History tells us trying to appease nationalism is in time doomed to failure as the national groups tend to want ever more power, autonomy and inevitably independence. Whether the break up of the Austro-Hungarian Empire is ultimately peaceful or violent it would impact the rest of Europe.

Then there's Russia - how does Russia respond to a rapid defeat in 1914? Probably with another upheaval akin to 1905 but this time with the Duma asserting superiority and forcing the Tsar either to abdicate or to become what we might consider a constitutional monarchy.

The political line sin these post-Imperial or post-autocratic states are more likely to be either across ethnic lines or more broadly between rural conservatives and urban progressives (happens everywhere).

Nor have I even considered what no WW1 does to Britain and France? Whither (or wither) Empire?

More than a century on from 1914, we arguably still live with the consequences of that fatal year - look at the Middle East and the implications of the Balfour Declaration, a document aimed at encouraging support against the Ottomans following the British success at Beersheba and seeking to get the financial backing of Rothschild. In a world still at peace, there'd have been no Balfour Declaration and no promise of a homeland for the Jewish people and everything that has and still flows from that.

[J.G.Harston]

Speaking of alternative Germanies, according to Channel 5 this country invaded Poland:

[adlai52]

Mar 15, 2024 20:44:21 GMT J.G.Harston said:

Speaking of alternative Germanies, according to Channel 5 this country invaded Poland:

It will never stop being a petty and geeky bug bear of mine when documentaries and movies use inaccurate historical maps! Nice to see Slovenia and Belarus making an appearance 60 years early though!   

[Pete Whitehead]

The funniest thing about that map, is that despite everywhere else having post 1945 boundaries (post-1992 in the case of former Yugoslavia), they've managed to include Ruthenia in Czechoslovakia - an odd detail to be the only thing they got right

[john07]

Jan 16, 2024 11:48:36 GMT The Bishop said:

Must say that those are two very cogent and well written posts, sir.

Maybe if he put the same effort into his history essays and exams he might have graduated by now?