Post by YL on Jan 10, 2024 22:34:13 GMT
This is a curiously shaped constituency, centred in the Wibsey area of south Bradford but with two "wings" formed by Queensbury on the west and Tong on the east. It has only been very slightly modified in the boundary review, with a small area in the Tyersal area added to ensure that it was within the acceptable electorate range, too small a change to have any significant electoral effect. Like the other two constituencies with Bradford in the name, it is a strongly working class constituency with high deprivation and low educational attainment, but it is not as strongly Muslim as they are and contains some areas which are very white by Bradford standards. Whereas the other two Bradford constituencies have become secure for Labour in recent years, Bradford South, although it has been Labour since 1945, was quite close in 2019, with Judith Cummins winning by under 2500 votes.
Great Horton ward is the part of the constituency closest to Bradford city centre; it is south-west of the centre beyond the University. It is also the ward demographically most like the other central Bradford wards, being over 50% Muslim. It is, however, more reliable for Labour than the other central Bradford wards, having elected two Labour councillors and one Conservative in the first election on the current ward boundaries in 2004 but having been consistently Labour ever since.
South-east of Great Horton and south of the city centre is Wibsey, a broadly working class area. The main Wibsey ward also elected one non-Labour councillor in 2004 and has been consistently Labour since, but in this case the non-Labour councillor represented the BNP. As might be expected from that, this is a whiter area than Great Horton, though there is still a substantial Asian Muslim population in the north of the ward.
The general Wibsey area extends south-west into Royds ward, which also includes the Buttershaw area which includes extensive areas of council housing, and the urban area has a southern extension through Low Moor to Wyke, which gives its name to another ward. These areas are also quite deprived, especially Buttershaw and Wyke and working class, and by Bradford standards they are quite white. Royds has always voted Labour and Wyke usually has, but there is a history of populist right voting here, with high shares for the BNP and later for UKIP. The BNP took one seat in Wyke in 2004, and in a pattern sometimes found in areas with a populist right history the ward voted Conservative in 2021.
Tong ward is the eastern of those wings of the constituency. Tong itself is a small village some way from the Bradford urban area and surrounded by countryside, but the parish of Tong was more extensive and the main road through it is known as Tong Street; this is also the name of the area that road passes through as it leaves the Bradford urban area. The ward also includes the council estate areas of Bierley and Holmewood, and north of the latter it includes some of the Bradford part of Tyersal, an area split between Leeds and Bradford. It is in the Tyersal area where the constituency has gained territory, with an adjoining area of Bowling & Barkerend ward added. Tong is generally another deprived ward, except for the more rural area including Tong village, and white by Bradford standards, and it has the highest proportion of socially rented housing in the city. It generally voted Labour, with again some high BNP and later UKIP shares, until a Green challenge failed in 2019 by just one vote and since then all three seats have gone Green.
When two of the wards mentioned so far elected BNP councillors, they repented of their decision fairly quickly, but the same cannot be said of Queensbury ward, which forms the western wing of the constituency. Queensbury proper is a separate settlement from Bradford, only added to the city in 1974, and is high in the Pennines, reaching over 360m above sea level, very high for an urban area in the UK. Its ward also includes an area in the south-west of Bradford proper beyond Horton Bank Top. It is the least deprived of the wards in this constituency, but is not especially middle class either, and Queensbury proper is generally very white. The ward elected two BNP councillors, Paul and Linda Cromie, in 2006 and 2007, and they both held their seats in 2010 and 2011. They later left the party, but Paul held his seat as an Independent in 2014 and Linda lost her seat to a Conservative in 2015 but returned in 2016. Paul was defeated in 2018 and both have now left the council. The ward then briefly had three Conservative councillors but Labour have narrowly won seats in both 2022 and 2023, helped by a split in the Conservatives; the remaining councillor elected as such is now a "Bradford South Independent", along with the Tory elected in Royds in 2021, and another ex-Conservative has got high shares as an Independent candidate.
As mentioned above this is a very working class constituency: the proportion in managerial and professional work is low, though not quite as low as in Bradford East or Bradford West, and the proportion in routine work very high. The proportion with no qualifications is high, though again not quite as high as in East or West, and that with degrees is in fact even lower than in West, though higher than in East. It is 20% Muslim: high by most standard, but not by those of Bradford.
The boundaries have been little changed since 1974, though before 1983 it included Shelf, which formerly shared a council with Queensbury but was added to Calderdale instead of Bradford in 1974. Before 1974 it did not include Tong and included Clayton instead; even further back it did not include Queensbury or Shelf. It was Labour in 1924, and consistently so from 1945. The high BNP and UKIP shares noted in some of the wards showed up in Westminster elections as well, with UKIP getting nearly a quarter of the vote in 2015. However, unlike some constituencies with such high UKIP votes, Labour had enough in reserve to hold on in 2019, and at least in the short term this still looks like a seat they will usually be able to count on.
2019 notional result (Rallings & Thrasher):
Lab 19110 (46.7%)
Con 16381 (40.1%)
Brexit Party 2872 (7.0%)
Lib Dem 1519 (3.7%)
Green 1007 (2.5%)
Lab majority 2729 (6.7%)
Great Horton ward is the part of the constituency closest to Bradford city centre; it is south-west of the centre beyond the University. It is also the ward demographically most like the other central Bradford wards, being over 50% Muslim. It is, however, more reliable for Labour than the other central Bradford wards, having elected two Labour councillors and one Conservative in the first election on the current ward boundaries in 2004 but having been consistently Labour ever since.
South-east of Great Horton and south of the city centre is Wibsey, a broadly working class area. The main Wibsey ward also elected one non-Labour councillor in 2004 and has been consistently Labour since, but in this case the non-Labour councillor represented the BNP. As might be expected from that, this is a whiter area than Great Horton, though there is still a substantial Asian Muslim population in the north of the ward.
The general Wibsey area extends south-west into Royds ward, which also includes the Buttershaw area which includes extensive areas of council housing, and the urban area has a southern extension through Low Moor to Wyke, which gives its name to another ward. These areas are also quite deprived, especially Buttershaw and Wyke and working class, and by Bradford standards they are quite white. Royds has always voted Labour and Wyke usually has, but there is a history of populist right voting here, with high shares for the BNP and later for UKIP. The BNP took one seat in Wyke in 2004, and in a pattern sometimes found in areas with a populist right history the ward voted Conservative in 2021.
Tong ward is the eastern of those wings of the constituency. Tong itself is a small village some way from the Bradford urban area and surrounded by countryside, but the parish of Tong was more extensive and the main road through it is known as Tong Street; this is also the name of the area that road passes through as it leaves the Bradford urban area. The ward also includes the council estate areas of Bierley and Holmewood, and north of the latter it includes some of the Bradford part of Tyersal, an area split between Leeds and Bradford. It is in the Tyersal area where the constituency has gained territory, with an adjoining area of Bowling & Barkerend ward added. Tong is generally another deprived ward, except for the more rural area including Tong village, and white by Bradford standards, and it has the highest proportion of socially rented housing in the city. It generally voted Labour, with again some high BNP and later UKIP shares, until a Green challenge failed in 2019 by just one vote and since then all three seats have gone Green.
When two of the wards mentioned so far elected BNP councillors, they repented of their decision fairly quickly, but the same cannot be said of Queensbury ward, which forms the western wing of the constituency. Queensbury proper is a separate settlement from Bradford, only added to the city in 1974, and is high in the Pennines, reaching over 360m above sea level, very high for an urban area in the UK. Its ward also includes an area in the south-west of Bradford proper beyond Horton Bank Top. It is the least deprived of the wards in this constituency, but is not especially middle class either, and Queensbury proper is generally very white. The ward elected two BNP councillors, Paul and Linda Cromie, in 2006 and 2007, and they both held their seats in 2010 and 2011. They later left the party, but Paul held his seat as an Independent in 2014 and Linda lost her seat to a Conservative in 2015 but returned in 2016. Paul was defeated in 2018 and both have now left the council. The ward then briefly had three Conservative councillors but Labour have narrowly won seats in both 2022 and 2023, helped by a split in the Conservatives; the remaining councillor elected as such is now a "Bradford South Independent", along with the Tory elected in Royds in 2021, and another ex-Conservative has got high shares as an Independent candidate.
As mentioned above this is a very working class constituency: the proportion in managerial and professional work is low, though not quite as low as in Bradford East or Bradford West, and the proportion in routine work very high. The proportion with no qualifications is high, though again not quite as high as in East or West, and that with degrees is in fact even lower than in West, though higher than in East. It is 20% Muslim: high by most standard, but not by those of Bradford.
The boundaries have been little changed since 1974, though before 1983 it included Shelf, which formerly shared a council with Queensbury but was added to Calderdale instead of Bradford in 1974. Before 1974 it did not include Tong and included Clayton instead; even further back it did not include Queensbury or Shelf. It was Labour in 1924, and consistently so from 1945. The high BNP and UKIP shares noted in some of the wards showed up in Westminster elections as well, with UKIP getting nearly a quarter of the vote in 2015. However, unlike some constituencies with such high UKIP votes, Labour had enough in reserve to hold on in 2019, and at least in the short term this still looks like a seat they will usually be able to count on.
2019 notional result (Rallings & Thrasher):
Lab 19110 (46.7%)
Con 16381 (40.1%)
Brexit Party 2872 (7.0%)
Lib Dem 1519 (3.7%)
Green 1007 (2.5%)
Lab majority 2729 (6.7%)
