Post by andrewp on Jan 10, 2024 11:34:49 GMT
With credit to @europeanlefty , who wrote the original Cotswolds profile,. This takes parts of that profile and of my original North Wiltshire.
From the moment that the boundary commission, during their review that reported in 2023, identified that Gloucestershire had an entitlement to 6.59 constituencies and neighbouring Wiltshire had an entitlement to 7.27, this constituency comprising of territory from both of those counties became very likely. The 2 counties were considered together and granted an extra 14th constituency and a constituency comprising of territory from both counties is created. What is not quite so obvious is whether this is the extra 14th constituency as a series of new neighbouring constituencies are formed, all comprising of roughly half of 2 previous constituencies, and neighbouring Chippenham and Melksham & Devizes both have an almost equal claim as this seat does to be called the extra constituency.
This seat is slightly more Gloucestershire (57%) than Wiltshire (43%) and takes just under half of the electorate of two existing constituencies- 48.9% of the current Cotswolds seat and 46.8% of the current North Wiltshire constituency to form what is quite a coherent constituency to the West and North West of Swindon and which is largely rural in nature and very comfortable.
The name of the constituency is perhaps slightly debatable as only about a third of the geographical area of the constituency is within the Cotswolds AONB. An alternative name might be Cirencester and Malmesbury. In a previous parliamentary boundary review in the 1990’s when a second constituency bearing the name New Forest was created Robert Waller noted that for opposition parties ‘ One New Forest was bad enough: the prospect of two must be appalling’ and one can imagine that 2 Cotswolds inspire similar thoughts. Although, the second New Forest did come into being in 1997, a terrible year for the Conservative Party, and whilst they did win both New Forests one of them was at least quite close, and there may be parallels here.
The Cotswolds are rich in history. It has the highest number of listed buildings of any district in Britain. It is also home to Westonbirt Arboretum, founded in the 19th century and possibly the most famous Arboretum in Britain. The King has long had a home at Highgrove near Tetbury and it is believed to be his favourite home. Cirencester itself is a Roman market town, with the Roman name Corinium Dobunnorum, and in the second century its walls enclosed the second largest area of any town in Britain. The area has had a thriving wool industry since the Roman era, which formed a key part of the local economy for centuries. Cirencester was connected to the Thames and Severn Canal by 1789. Throughout all of this, there has been little industry in most of the area.
The largest town in the new seat is Cirencester ( population 20,000), commonly abbreviated to ‘ Ciren’ and then the rest of the towns are really quite small- Tetbury (6,500) and Fairford (3000) in Gloucestershire and Malmesbury (6000) and Cricklade (4000) in Wiltshire.
Demographically, this is a comfortable constituency by most measures, with an older population. 46.4% of the population are over 50. It is 71% owner occupied and 95.3% white. It ranks in the top 100 constituencies in England and Wales for those with jobs classified as higher professional and is a popular commuting area for Swindon, Bath and Bristol. It ranks 117th for the percentage of people with degrees and a below average share of people have no qualifications. However, as a percentage of these degrees will be from the Royal Agriculture College in Cirencester, this won’t contribute to a socially liberal outlook as much as such education statistics tend to elsewhere. The Cotswolds have a reputation for being populated by wealthy retirees and second home owners. While this is partially accurate, in some areas more than others, it is not completely true. There are some pockets of deprivation in central Cirencester and Tetbury, although overall this remains a reasonably well-off constituency.
On the pre-2015 ward boundaries, Cirencester Watermoor, Cirencester Chesterton, Cirencester Park and Riversmeet (a rural eastern ward) were all under 60% owner-occupied at the last census.
The two halves of this constituency last voted in local elections in two very different years. Wiltshire last voted in 2021 and the eight divisions in this constituency voted for 5 Conservatives ( almost all the more rural areas) and 3 Liberal Democrats ( in Cricklade, Malmesbury and Sherston). Gloucestershire voted in 2023 and the Liberal Democrats gained actually ground on their 2019 gain of the council in the southern half of the Cotswold district ( as opposed to the northern half of the district where they slipped back slightly) winning 18 of the 20 councillors, to 1 Independent and 1 Conservative. At local level, Cirencester has always been a pool of LibDem strength and they are now dominant, holding both county council seats, all 8 district council seats and 11 of the 16 town council seats. In 2011, Joe Harris became one of he youngest principal authority councillor ever elected in the UK, when he won in Cirencester Park at the age of 18. In 2013, he also became the youngest mayor in UK history at the age of 20 and is now the Leader of the district council. At national level, it is very likely that the Tories win every ward, with a couple of the Cirencester wards being the only possible exceptions.
This is, overall, an economically right-wing constituency, although the area around Cirencester is more of the pro-free market, pro-welfare state kind that is prevalent in many of the LibDems old West Country strongholds. The Cotswolds, and especially this area, is reasonably socially liberal. The Cotswold district was 51% remain at the referendum, and that figure will be slightly higher for the constituency.
Overall, this is a well-off, rural and agricultural seat.The last time a non-Conservative won a seat in this area was when the Liberals won the old Cirencester seat in their 1906 landslide. Provisional estimates are of a notional Conservative majority of about 17,000 or 32% over the Liberal Democrats which feels like a steep challenge for the Liberal Democrats but they do have a strong local government base in the Cotswolds and a closer contest seems inevitable.
From the moment that the boundary commission, during their review that reported in 2023, identified that Gloucestershire had an entitlement to 6.59 constituencies and neighbouring Wiltshire had an entitlement to 7.27, this constituency comprising of territory from both of those counties became very likely. The 2 counties were considered together and granted an extra 14th constituency and a constituency comprising of territory from both counties is created. What is not quite so obvious is whether this is the extra 14th constituency as a series of new neighbouring constituencies are formed, all comprising of roughly half of 2 previous constituencies, and neighbouring Chippenham and Melksham & Devizes both have an almost equal claim as this seat does to be called the extra constituency.
This seat is slightly more Gloucestershire (57%) than Wiltshire (43%) and takes just under half of the electorate of two existing constituencies- 48.9% of the current Cotswolds seat and 46.8% of the current North Wiltshire constituency to form what is quite a coherent constituency to the West and North West of Swindon and which is largely rural in nature and very comfortable.
The name of the constituency is perhaps slightly debatable as only about a third of the geographical area of the constituency is within the Cotswolds AONB. An alternative name might be Cirencester and Malmesbury. In a previous parliamentary boundary review in the 1990’s when a second constituency bearing the name New Forest was created Robert Waller noted that for opposition parties ‘ One New Forest was bad enough: the prospect of two must be appalling’ and one can imagine that 2 Cotswolds inspire similar thoughts. Although, the second New Forest did come into being in 1997, a terrible year for the Conservative Party, and whilst they did win both New Forests one of them was at least quite close, and there may be parallels here.
The Cotswolds are rich in history. It has the highest number of listed buildings of any district in Britain. It is also home to Westonbirt Arboretum, founded in the 19th century and possibly the most famous Arboretum in Britain. The King has long had a home at Highgrove near Tetbury and it is believed to be his favourite home. Cirencester itself is a Roman market town, with the Roman name Corinium Dobunnorum, and in the second century its walls enclosed the second largest area of any town in Britain. The area has had a thriving wool industry since the Roman era, which formed a key part of the local economy for centuries. Cirencester was connected to the Thames and Severn Canal by 1789. Throughout all of this, there has been little industry in most of the area.
The largest town in the new seat is Cirencester ( population 20,000), commonly abbreviated to ‘ Ciren’ and then the rest of the towns are really quite small- Tetbury (6,500) and Fairford (3000) in Gloucestershire and Malmesbury (6000) and Cricklade (4000) in Wiltshire.
Demographically, this is a comfortable constituency by most measures, with an older population. 46.4% of the population are over 50. It is 71% owner occupied and 95.3% white. It ranks in the top 100 constituencies in England and Wales for those with jobs classified as higher professional and is a popular commuting area for Swindon, Bath and Bristol. It ranks 117th for the percentage of people with degrees and a below average share of people have no qualifications. However, as a percentage of these degrees will be from the Royal Agriculture College in Cirencester, this won’t contribute to a socially liberal outlook as much as such education statistics tend to elsewhere. The Cotswolds have a reputation for being populated by wealthy retirees and second home owners. While this is partially accurate, in some areas more than others, it is not completely true. There are some pockets of deprivation in central Cirencester and Tetbury, although overall this remains a reasonably well-off constituency.
On the pre-2015 ward boundaries, Cirencester Watermoor, Cirencester Chesterton, Cirencester Park and Riversmeet (a rural eastern ward) were all under 60% owner-occupied at the last census.
The two halves of this constituency last voted in local elections in two very different years. Wiltshire last voted in 2021 and the eight divisions in this constituency voted for 5 Conservatives ( almost all the more rural areas) and 3 Liberal Democrats ( in Cricklade, Malmesbury and Sherston). Gloucestershire voted in 2023 and the Liberal Democrats gained actually ground on their 2019 gain of the council in the southern half of the Cotswold district ( as opposed to the northern half of the district where they slipped back slightly) winning 18 of the 20 councillors, to 1 Independent and 1 Conservative. At local level, Cirencester has always been a pool of LibDem strength and they are now dominant, holding both county council seats, all 8 district council seats and 11 of the 16 town council seats. In 2011, Joe Harris became one of he youngest principal authority councillor ever elected in the UK, when he won in Cirencester Park at the age of 18. In 2013, he also became the youngest mayor in UK history at the age of 20 and is now the Leader of the district council. At national level, it is very likely that the Tories win every ward, with a couple of the Cirencester wards being the only possible exceptions.
This is, overall, an economically right-wing constituency, although the area around Cirencester is more of the pro-free market, pro-welfare state kind that is prevalent in many of the LibDems old West Country strongholds. The Cotswolds, and especially this area, is reasonably socially liberal. The Cotswold district was 51% remain at the referendum, and that figure will be slightly higher for the constituency.
Overall, this is a well-off, rural and agricultural seat.The last time a non-Conservative won a seat in this area was when the Liberals won the old Cirencester seat in their 1906 landslide. Provisional estimates are of a notional Conservative majority of about 17,000 or 32% over the Liberal Democrats which feels like a steep challenge for the Liberal Democrats but they do have a strong local government base in the Cotswolds and a closer contest seems inevitable.
