Post by YL on Jan 9, 2024 21:30:19 GMT
This constituency is mostly situated on the hills to the east of the valley of Bradford Beck as it runs from Bradford city centre northwards to join the Aire. At its southern end it wraps round the southern side of the city centre to include the Little Horton area. It has only been slightly adjusted in the boundary changes, with a sliver in the east of Bowling & Barkerend ward having been transferred to Bradford South to ensure that that constituency is above the lower electorate limit.
A quick look at the 2017 and 2019 General Election results would suggest a very safe Labour seat, though it might be noticed that an Independent candidate called David Ward got nearly 8% in 2017. However, it had not previously been so safe and that David Ward was, in fact, a former MP for the constituency, having been elected as a Liberal Democrat in 2010 but losing the seat to Labour in 2015. Between the 2015 and 2017 elections he had been expelled from the Lib Dems after a number of controversial remarks and allegations of anti-Semitism. The MP since 2015 has been Imran Hussain, who was previously the Labour candidate defeated by George Galloway in the 2012 Bradford West by-election.
At the southern end are the wards of Little Horton, Bowling & Barkerend, and Bradford Moor. Much of this area is classic Bradford: Victorian stone built buildings and a working class population with a large Asian Muslim element. All three wards have Muslim populations over 50%, with Bradford Moor at nearly 80% the second most Muslim ward in the city and the eighth most in England and Wales. They are also very deprived areas, with most census areas in the 10% most deprived in England.
As in some other parts of Bradford, local elections in these wards can be unpredictable. Little Horton was reliably Labour, except in 2012 when it voted Respect in the aftermath of that by-election in the neighbouring constituency, until voting for Independent candidates in 2021 and 2022. In 2023, with no Independent, it voted Labour with an enormous majority, but the councillor elected has now joined the two Independents in the "Bradford Independent Group". Bowling & Barkerend has been consistently Labour since 2012, but before then had elected mostly Conservatives. One of those Conservatives stood again in 2021 and 2022 and very nearly won again, but in 2023 with a different candidate they only got 7% of the vote. Bradford Moor usually votes Labour, but also voted Respect in 2012 and also has Liberal Democrat strength. Again, candidates matter: the Lib Dems got only 6% in 2019 but their defending councillor won with 44% in 2021.
Further north are the wards of Bolton & Undercliffe, immediately east of Bradford Beck, and Eccleshill. These wards are less Muslim, though the figure is still over a third in Bolton & Undercliffe. They are also largely working class areas with high deprivation, especially in the south of Bolton & Undercliffe and in the east of Eccleshill ward along the Leeds border, where there are extensive council estates. Both were, until recently, Lib Dem strongholds locally, but they have shifted towards Labour in the last few years and the Lib Dems now only have one councillor left.
The northernmost ward is Idle & Thackley, with its territory extending into the Aire valley and including the new railway station at Apperley Bridge. Parts of this ward also have quite high deprivation, but generally this is the most middle class part of the constituency. It is also the whitest part, though it is not without diversity. It remains a Liberal Democrat stronghold at local level, no doubt partly thanks to the excellence of its councillors.
Overall this is a very working class constituency, with one of the lowest proportions in professional and managerial jobs in England and Wales. It has a high proportion with no qualifications and a low one with degrees, and a fairly low proportion of owner occupiers. It is a young constituency, and has the second highest proportion of under 15s in England and Wales. Although not as Muslim as Bradford West, it is still the 7th most Muslim constituency in England and Wales, at 44%.
There had previously been a Bradford East constituency from 1885 until 1974, but this constituency is essentially a renaming of what was already a rather inaccurately named Bradford North, which had included areas south-east of the city centre since 1974, with the addition of the very obviously not North Little Horton in 2010. Bradford North had been Labour since 1964, except for a single Conservative victory in 1983, and after a 1990 by-election was represented by Terry Rooney, the UK's first Mormon MP. David Ward had already had a strong Liberal Democrat showing in 2005 when the seat was still called North, before his win in 2010. For now, Bradford East looks like a safe Labour seat, though the city's politics can be unpredictable and perhaps this will change again in the future.
2019 notional result (Rallings & Thrasher):
Lab 27105 (63.0%)
Con 9344 (21.7%)
Lib Dem 3302 (7.7%)
Brexit Party 2647 (6.1%)
Green 638 (1.5%)
Lab majority 17761 (41.3%)
A quick look at the 2017 and 2019 General Election results would suggest a very safe Labour seat, though it might be noticed that an Independent candidate called David Ward got nearly 8% in 2017. However, it had not previously been so safe and that David Ward was, in fact, a former MP for the constituency, having been elected as a Liberal Democrat in 2010 but losing the seat to Labour in 2015. Between the 2015 and 2017 elections he had been expelled from the Lib Dems after a number of controversial remarks and allegations of anti-Semitism. The MP since 2015 has been Imran Hussain, who was previously the Labour candidate defeated by George Galloway in the 2012 Bradford West by-election.
At the southern end are the wards of Little Horton, Bowling & Barkerend, and Bradford Moor. Much of this area is classic Bradford: Victorian stone built buildings and a working class population with a large Asian Muslim element. All three wards have Muslim populations over 50%, with Bradford Moor at nearly 80% the second most Muslim ward in the city and the eighth most in England and Wales. They are also very deprived areas, with most census areas in the 10% most deprived in England.
As in some other parts of Bradford, local elections in these wards can be unpredictable. Little Horton was reliably Labour, except in 2012 when it voted Respect in the aftermath of that by-election in the neighbouring constituency, until voting for Independent candidates in 2021 and 2022. In 2023, with no Independent, it voted Labour with an enormous majority, but the councillor elected has now joined the two Independents in the "Bradford Independent Group". Bowling & Barkerend has been consistently Labour since 2012, but before then had elected mostly Conservatives. One of those Conservatives stood again in 2021 and 2022 and very nearly won again, but in 2023 with a different candidate they only got 7% of the vote. Bradford Moor usually votes Labour, but also voted Respect in 2012 and also has Liberal Democrat strength. Again, candidates matter: the Lib Dems got only 6% in 2019 but their defending councillor won with 44% in 2021.
Further north are the wards of Bolton & Undercliffe, immediately east of Bradford Beck, and Eccleshill. These wards are less Muslim, though the figure is still over a third in Bolton & Undercliffe. They are also largely working class areas with high deprivation, especially in the south of Bolton & Undercliffe and in the east of Eccleshill ward along the Leeds border, where there are extensive council estates. Both were, until recently, Lib Dem strongholds locally, but they have shifted towards Labour in the last few years and the Lib Dems now only have one councillor left.
The northernmost ward is Idle & Thackley, with its territory extending into the Aire valley and including the new railway station at Apperley Bridge. Parts of this ward also have quite high deprivation, but generally this is the most middle class part of the constituency. It is also the whitest part, though it is not without diversity. It remains a Liberal Democrat stronghold at local level, no doubt partly thanks to the excellence of its councillors.
Overall this is a very working class constituency, with one of the lowest proportions in professional and managerial jobs in England and Wales. It has a high proportion with no qualifications and a low one with degrees, and a fairly low proportion of owner occupiers. It is a young constituency, and has the second highest proportion of under 15s in England and Wales. Although not as Muslim as Bradford West, it is still the 7th most Muslim constituency in England and Wales, at 44%.
There had previously been a Bradford East constituency from 1885 until 1974, but this constituency is essentially a renaming of what was already a rather inaccurately named Bradford North, which had included areas south-east of the city centre since 1974, with the addition of the very obviously not North Little Horton in 2010. Bradford North had been Labour since 1964, except for a single Conservative victory in 1983, and after a 1990 by-election was represented by Terry Rooney, the UK's first Mormon MP. David Ward had already had a strong Liberal Democrat showing in 2005 when the seat was still called North, before his win in 2010. For now, Bradford East looks like a safe Labour seat, though the city's politics can be unpredictable and perhaps this will change again in the future.
2019 notional result (Rallings & Thrasher):
Lab 27105 (63.0%)
Con 9344 (21.7%)
Lib Dem 3302 (7.7%)
Brexit Party 2647 (6.1%)
Green 638 (1.5%)
Lab majority 17761 (41.3%)
