Post by John Chanin on Jan 9, 2024 11:09:00 GMT
Although I have referred to the original profile by @europeanlefty , this is basically a new profile by myself.
This is a very distinctive seat, indeed it would be fair to call it unique. It is not just that it now has the lowest white population in the country (just 20%), up from 6th lowest at the previous census. It is who the ethnic minorities are. Two thirds of the population is south asian, but these are not the Punjabis of Birmingham or Bradford, but they are Gujeratis, the majority of whom are Hindu. This is by far the most Hindu constituency in the country, with a percentage much higher than the familiar concentration in north London. Furthermore the significant Muslim population here, are also of Indian rather than Pakistani descent, the majority also being Gujerati in origin. There is of course a history to this. 50 years ago Idi Amin expelled all the asians from Uganda. About 50,000 came to Britain, who had originally imported them into Africa from India, predominantly Gujerat. The government of the time (like more recent governments) sought to disperse the refugees across the country, but an early concentration formed in Leicester, and subsequently many people moved from where they had been originally located to Leicester, where there was support and familiarity. The community has expanded from there. Yes many of the immigrants and their children have been highly successful and moved out to the suburbs, and elsewhere in the country, so this remains a very working class community - indeed it is flat last in the whole country for managerial workers, ahead of more likely areas like the Black Country and northern industrial towns. But there is also considerable owner-occupation for such a generally poor community. Leicester’s industry is still alive and well, at least in this seat, with over 20% of jobs being in manufacturing (mostly engineering related) – roughly two and a half times the national average. Incomes are also low in this seat, with a weekly average 25% lower than the national average.
It would however be wrong to think the seat is uniform in composition. The Hindu population is concentrated in Rushey Mead on the northern edge of the city, and Belgrave between here and the centre, forming two-thirds of the population in both wards. Rushey Mead, straddling the ring road, has modern housing to the north, and typical inter-war semis further south. Belgrave as you approach the centre has a lot of old terraced housing, more council estates, and less owner-occupation. Rushey Mead is as you would expect is better off, but there there is surprisingly little in it. As you move to the east, in North Evington and Troon wards, Hindus and Muslims are evenly balanced. North Evington and neighbouring Humberstone were the centre of the ethnic disturbances that broke out in September 2022. Remember this is a Gujerati area, and India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, is a Gujerati, who has exploited religious divisions in India with a form of Hindu nationalism, and is still blamed for multiple deaths in riots in Gujerat when he was Chief Minister there. These tensions spilled over onto the streets of east Leicester. As always the trouble was blamed on ‘outsiders’, but this can be taken with a pinch of salt. Much of North Evington ward isn’t North Evington at all, but a continuation of the 2 storey terraces of Belgrave. There are semis in North Evington proper, as well as the southern part of Troon ward, which is similar to Rushey Mead across the railway line. The northern end of the ward is an isolated area of modern housing on the far side of a large industrial estate.
Politically the Hindu community has fallen out of love with the Labour party. There were major factional problems prior to the 2023 local elections, with many sitting councillors deselected. A by-election in North Evington shortly after the disturbances was won comfortably by the Conservatives. At the following council elections they won all three wards of Rushey Mead, Belgrave and North Evington. Some of this is understandable, as the arrival of a Hindu Prime Minister is bound to have some effect, and Labour is increasingly being seen as pro-Muslim in a community with heightened religious tensions.
The three wards on the eastern boundary of the city are a little different. This area is much more suburban and the housing more modern. Muslims outnumber Hindus in all three, although they are not a majority as they are in Spinney Hills to the south (in Leicester South), and there is more of a white population, particularly in the sprawling new private estates of Hamilton on the north-east boundary of the city (and it is truly the boundary of the city here, adjoining countryside), and Thurnby Lodge to the south, adjoining the Thurnby/Bushby suburbs outside the city boundary which are ludicrously included in the Rutland & Stamford seat. These three wards are up market of the other four, although routine and semi-routine workers still exceed managerial, and those with minimal qualifications substantially exceed those with degrees. There is a lot less private renting, but quite a bit of council housing, particularly in Thurncourt. Labour managed to do a bit better here, but still lost a by-election in the mixed Humberstone & Hamilton ward in 2021. They did manage to hold this ward in 2023, but split Thurncourt, and lost Evington to a combination of Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. Overall from winning all 18 council seats in 2019, Labour were reduced to 6 in 2023, with the Conservatives taking twice as many. A small chunk of Evington ward around Evington Park has been moved to Leicester South in the only boundary change to reduce the seat to just below the maximum permitted size, and this will make no political difference.
As might be expected from a deprived, working-class seat with a high immigrant and a high ethnic minority population, this seat has been Labour for most of its history. The only brief exception was when the Conservatives won in their 1983 landslide, helped by the incumbent MP running for the SDP and splitting the vote. The seat has changed beyond all recognition since then, and trended seemingly inexorably towards Labour over the next 30 years. The seat was won back in 1987 by Keith Vaz - an asian yes, but a Yemen born christian of Goan descent, and so divorced from local religious politics. He built up a big political machine, before being brought down by a sexual scandal before the 2019 election. The Labour Party hurriedly imposed black Islington councillor Claudia Webbe, who proved something of a disaster, and the swing to the Conservatives was an enormous 15% which made the seat appear almost marginal. Webbe’s subsequent conviction for harassment compounded the error, and she was expelled from the Labour Party. The Labour Party will be hoping for better luck with their new candidate, Rajesh Agrawal, who is (or rather was) deputy mayor for business in London working for Sadiq Khan. As a Hindu businessman with good Muslim connections, and no links to factions in Leicester, this could prove to be a canny selection.
Overall, this is a deprived, urban, ethnic minority constituency that should be a safe Labour seat, and has been for much of its history. The party’s recent troubles have seen their majority drastically reduced, however, and there has been speculation that the seat could even be won by the Conservatives against the national trend. This seems unlikely. Hindus are little more than a third of the seat, Muslims who account for a further quarter are unlikely to be voting Conservative however upset they get about Gaza, and this is a very working class constituency in a period where class is becoming more salient again, and the Conservatives are deeply unpopular. Still it would be good for Labour not to be complacent, as this is the sort of seat where an independent might make considerable inroads, and there will be much interest in the result at the next General Election.
Census data: Owner-occupied 55% (456/575 in England & Wales), private rented 25% (118th), social rented 20% (142nd).
: White 20%(575th), Black 4%(151st), South Asian 65%(1st), Mixed 3%(220th), Other 8%(81st)
: Hindu 38%(1st), Muslim 26%(26th), Sikh 7%(15th)
: Managerial & professional 22% (575th), Routine & Semi-routine 49% (1st)
: Degree level 23%(527th), Minimal qualifications 45%(1st)
: Students 9% (127th), Over 65- 13% (481st)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 100% from Leicester E
97% of the old seat is in the new one, with 3% going to Leicester S
This is a very distinctive seat, indeed it would be fair to call it unique. It is not just that it now has the lowest white population in the country (just 20%), up from 6th lowest at the previous census. It is who the ethnic minorities are. Two thirds of the population is south asian, but these are not the Punjabis of Birmingham or Bradford, but they are Gujeratis, the majority of whom are Hindu. This is by far the most Hindu constituency in the country, with a percentage much higher than the familiar concentration in north London. Furthermore the significant Muslim population here, are also of Indian rather than Pakistani descent, the majority also being Gujerati in origin. There is of course a history to this. 50 years ago Idi Amin expelled all the asians from Uganda. About 50,000 came to Britain, who had originally imported them into Africa from India, predominantly Gujerat. The government of the time (like more recent governments) sought to disperse the refugees across the country, but an early concentration formed in Leicester, and subsequently many people moved from where they had been originally located to Leicester, where there was support and familiarity. The community has expanded from there. Yes many of the immigrants and their children have been highly successful and moved out to the suburbs, and elsewhere in the country, so this remains a very working class community - indeed it is flat last in the whole country for managerial workers, ahead of more likely areas like the Black Country and northern industrial towns. But there is also considerable owner-occupation for such a generally poor community. Leicester’s industry is still alive and well, at least in this seat, with over 20% of jobs being in manufacturing (mostly engineering related) – roughly two and a half times the national average. Incomes are also low in this seat, with a weekly average 25% lower than the national average.
It would however be wrong to think the seat is uniform in composition. The Hindu population is concentrated in Rushey Mead on the northern edge of the city, and Belgrave between here and the centre, forming two-thirds of the population in both wards. Rushey Mead, straddling the ring road, has modern housing to the north, and typical inter-war semis further south. Belgrave as you approach the centre has a lot of old terraced housing, more council estates, and less owner-occupation. Rushey Mead is as you would expect is better off, but there there is surprisingly little in it. As you move to the east, in North Evington and Troon wards, Hindus and Muslims are evenly balanced. North Evington and neighbouring Humberstone were the centre of the ethnic disturbances that broke out in September 2022. Remember this is a Gujerati area, and India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, is a Gujerati, who has exploited religious divisions in India with a form of Hindu nationalism, and is still blamed for multiple deaths in riots in Gujerat when he was Chief Minister there. These tensions spilled over onto the streets of east Leicester. As always the trouble was blamed on ‘outsiders’, but this can be taken with a pinch of salt. Much of North Evington ward isn’t North Evington at all, but a continuation of the 2 storey terraces of Belgrave. There are semis in North Evington proper, as well as the southern part of Troon ward, which is similar to Rushey Mead across the railway line. The northern end of the ward is an isolated area of modern housing on the far side of a large industrial estate.
Politically the Hindu community has fallen out of love with the Labour party. There were major factional problems prior to the 2023 local elections, with many sitting councillors deselected. A by-election in North Evington shortly after the disturbances was won comfortably by the Conservatives. At the following council elections they won all three wards of Rushey Mead, Belgrave and North Evington. Some of this is understandable, as the arrival of a Hindu Prime Minister is bound to have some effect, and Labour is increasingly being seen as pro-Muslim in a community with heightened religious tensions.
The three wards on the eastern boundary of the city are a little different. This area is much more suburban and the housing more modern. Muslims outnumber Hindus in all three, although they are not a majority as they are in Spinney Hills to the south (in Leicester South), and there is more of a white population, particularly in the sprawling new private estates of Hamilton on the north-east boundary of the city (and it is truly the boundary of the city here, adjoining countryside), and Thurnby Lodge to the south, adjoining the Thurnby/Bushby suburbs outside the city boundary which are ludicrously included in the Rutland & Stamford seat. These three wards are up market of the other four, although routine and semi-routine workers still exceed managerial, and those with minimal qualifications substantially exceed those with degrees. There is a lot less private renting, but quite a bit of council housing, particularly in Thurncourt. Labour managed to do a bit better here, but still lost a by-election in the mixed Humberstone & Hamilton ward in 2021. They did manage to hold this ward in 2023, but split Thurncourt, and lost Evington to a combination of Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. Overall from winning all 18 council seats in 2019, Labour were reduced to 6 in 2023, with the Conservatives taking twice as many. A small chunk of Evington ward around Evington Park has been moved to Leicester South in the only boundary change to reduce the seat to just below the maximum permitted size, and this will make no political difference.
As might be expected from a deprived, working-class seat with a high immigrant and a high ethnic minority population, this seat has been Labour for most of its history. The only brief exception was when the Conservatives won in their 1983 landslide, helped by the incumbent MP running for the SDP and splitting the vote. The seat has changed beyond all recognition since then, and trended seemingly inexorably towards Labour over the next 30 years. The seat was won back in 1987 by Keith Vaz - an asian yes, but a Yemen born christian of Goan descent, and so divorced from local religious politics. He built up a big political machine, before being brought down by a sexual scandal before the 2019 election. The Labour Party hurriedly imposed black Islington councillor Claudia Webbe, who proved something of a disaster, and the swing to the Conservatives was an enormous 15% which made the seat appear almost marginal. Webbe’s subsequent conviction for harassment compounded the error, and she was expelled from the Labour Party. The Labour Party will be hoping for better luck with their new candidate, Rajesh Agrawal, who is (or rather was) deputy mayor for business in London working for Sadiq Khan. As a Hindu businessman with good Muslim connections, and no links to factions in Leicester, this could prove to be a canny selection.
Overall, this is a deprived, urban, ethnic minority constituency that should be a safe Labour seat, and has been for much of its history. The party’s recent troubles have seen their majority drastically reduced, however, and there has been speculation that the seat could even be won by the Conservatives against the national trend. This seems unlikely. Hindus are little more than a third of the seat, Muslims who account for a further quarter are unlikely to be voting Conservative however upset they get about Gaza, and this is a very working class constituency in a period where class is becoming more salient again, and the Conservatives are deeply unpopular. Still it would be good for Labour not to be complacent, as this is the sort of seat where an independent might make considerable inroads, and there will be much interest in the result at the next General Election.
Census data: Owner-occupied 55% (456/575 in England & Wales), private rented 25% (118th), social rented 20% (142nd).
: White 20%(575th), Black 4%(151st), South Asian 65%(1st), Mixed 3%(220th), Other 8%(81st)
: Hindu 38%(1st), Muslim 26%(26th), Sikh 7%(15th)
: Managerial & professional 22% (575th), Routine & Semi-routine 49% (1st)
: Degree level 23%(527th), Minimal qualifications 45%(1st)
: Students 9% (127th), Over 65- 13% (481st)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 100% from Leicester E
97% of the old seat is in the new one, with 3% going to Leicester S
2017 | % | 2019 | % | Notional | % | |
Labour | 35,116 | 67.0 | 25,090 | 50.8 | 24,563 | 50.9 |
Conservative | 12,688 | 24.2 | 19,071 | 38.6 | 18,564 | 38.5 |
Liberal Democrat | 1,343 | 2.6 | 2,800 | 5.7 | 2,716 | 5.6 |
Brexit | 1,243 | 2.5 | 1,210 | 2.5 | ||
Green | 1,070 | 2.0 | 888 | 1.8 | 858 | 1.8 |
Other | 2,207 | 4.2 | 329 | 0.7 | 329 | 0.7 |
| Majority | 22,428 | 42.8 | 6,019 | 12.2 | 5,999 | 12.4 |
