Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jan 9, 2024 0:20:24 GMT
This is largely based on the original by Merseymike with additional materials by Pete Whitehead and myself
Sefton Central is exactly where it says it is, although its not a 'place' that anyone who lives here would recognise.
In common with Kirklees (say that out loud ten times) and not with, say, Liverpool, Sefton is a name chosen through compromise and keeping the peace. When formed, the council needed a name to represent Bootle and Crosby from within the Liverpool orbit, and Southport and Formby from western Lancashire. The result is a name you might not recognise were you from somewhere other than a political messageboard. A secondary result is a constituency name which will carry on for perhaps a decade more following recent boundary changes.
It is essentially the middle part of the borough of Sefton, and under the current boundaries consists of part of Crosby (the Blundellsands and Manor wards, with the latter stretching up to the commuter village of Hightown), the two Formby wards of Harington and Ravenmeols, and the three Maghull wards of Park, Sudell, and Molyneux, which also includes part of Aintree including the racecourse. Boundary changes in place for 2024 nibble across two different parts of the seat, taking away Aintree into Liverpool and gaining Ainsdale from Southport.
[/td][td] [/td][td] [/td][/tr][tr][td] Majority [/td][td]
Sefton Central is exactly where it says it is, although its not a 'place' that anyone who lives here would recognise.
In common with Kirklees (say that out loud ten times) and not with, say, Liverpool, Sefton is a name chosen through compromise and keeping the peace. When formed, the council needed a name to represent Bootle and Crosby from within the Liverpool orbit, and Southport and Formby from western Lancashire. The result is a name you might not recognise were you from somewhere other than a political messageboard. A secondary result is a constituency name which will carry on for perhaps a decade more following recent boundary changes.
It is essentially the middle part of the borough of Sefton, and under the current boundaries consists of part of Crosby (the Blundellsands and Manor wards, with the latter stretching up to the commuter village of Hightown), the two Formby wards of Harington and Ravenmeols, and the three Maghull wards of Park, Sudell, and Molyneux, which also includes part of Aintree including the racecourse. Boundary changes in place for 2024 nibble across two different parts of the seat, taking away Aintree into Liverpool and gaining Ainsdale from Southport.
Is this the most unlikely safe Labour seat in the country? Take a trip to Freshfields in Formby, or the Hall Road district of Blundellsands the home of a number of high-profile professional footballers (and Anne Robinson) and the idea that you are in a seat with a Labour vote of 57.5% and a majority of over 15.000 even in 2019 appears risible. The old Crosby seat was won for the first time by Claire Curtis-Thomas in 1997, and it has previously been best known for being the site of the victory of Shirley Williams in the 1981 by-election. However, much of her majority came from the Church ward which is no longer in the seat (it has done something of a political hokey-cokey between Crosby and Bootle) and between 1983 and 1997 it appeared to be safely back in the Conservative camp. After Labour's shock win in 1997 - it was in fact the first Labour gain of the night, but there were no TV or radio representatives to hand as the likelihood of it becoming a Labour seat were considered non-existent - the seat then appeared to be stronger for Labour than had been imagined, with the majority in 2005 still over 5000 votes.
By 2010 things were looking less hopeful, with boundary changes having established Sefton Central, removing Labour's strongest wards of Church, and, nationally at least, Victoria, and with the Maghull area being brought back into the seat from Sefton east and Knowsley North which had a Conservative history, the odd Labour win, but by 2010 a full slate of Liberal Democrat councillors. Indeed, Labour did not have a single councillor left in the constituency by the time of the 2010 election, and Claire Curtis-Thomas announced that she did not wish to seek the Labour nomination. An outside candidate, Medway councillor Bill Esterson, was selected to fight the seat for Labour, and with local radio and TV personality Debi Jones having a second try for the Conservatives, the local discussion appeared more to be whether Labour could hold on to second place. Yet Labour held the seat with a 3862 majority.
This is a middle class seat. It includes the renowned private day school , Merchant Taylors, as well as Formby, and it is overwhelmingly owner-occupied. There is evidence of some faded grandeur in parts of the Blundellsands ward, but it is still remarkable that this now appears to be safely in the Labour camp, with both of the Formby wards at least competitive for Labour too. Locally, there has been some evidence of local independents gaining ground, first in Maghull, although Labour won comfortably in all three wards in 2019, and now in Formby.
Maghull's former Liberal Democrat strength appears to have disappeared completely. This is a seat with a lot of professionals, it attracts young middle class families because of the schools, and if from Liverpool with an established pattern of Labour voting. Indeed, local Conservatives have been known to remark that the old Tory Crosby vote is literally dying, year by year, and their replacements in the solid Victorian family homes are not voting Conservative.
Maghull's former Liberal Democrat strength appears to have disappeared completely. This is a seat with a lot of professionals, it attracts young middle class families because of the schools, and if from Liverpool with an established pattern of Labour voting. Indeed, local Conservatives have been known to remark that the old Tory Crosby vote is literally dying, year by year, and their replacements in the solid Victorian family homes are not voting Conservative.
So, is this Labour's most middle-class seat? It is not unreasonable to think that if this seat was in Hertforshire it would be true-blue. But it isn't. This is essentially Liverpool suburbia, and its political preferences, like the bulk of the Liverpool city region, remain those of the Labour party.
2011 Census
2011 Census
Age 65+ 24.1% 19/650
Owner-occupied 85.5% 2/650
Private rented 7.3% 643/650
Social rented 6.0% 648/650
[/i][/div]White 98.1% 100/650
Black 0.2% 549/650
Asian 0.8% 574/650
Christian 81.1% 2/650
Managerial & professional 36.5%
Routine & Semi-routine 20.0%
Retired 20.2% 15/650
Degree level 29.4% 206/650
No qualifications 21.2% 401/650
Students 7.4% 259/650
2021 Census
[/b][/div]Owner occupied 83.2% 1/573
Private rented 10.2% 573/573
Social rented 6.6% 569/573
[/b][/div]White 97.2%
Black 0.3%
Asian 1.0 %
Christian 70.3% 1/650
Managerial & professional 38.9% 125/573
Routine & Semi-routine 18.8% 450/573
Degree level 35.0% 202/573
No qualifications 16.4% 363/573
General Election 2019: Sefton Central
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Bill Esterson 29,254 57.5 –5.5
Conservative Wazz Mughal 14,132 27.8 –5.2
Liberal Democrats Keith Cawdron 3,386 6.7 +4.0
Brexit Party Paul Lomas 2,425 4.8
Green Alison Gibbon 1,261 2.5 +1.2
Liberal Angela Preston 285 0.6
Renew Carla Burns 137 0.3
Lab Majority 15,122 29.7 –0.3
Turnout 50,880 72.9 –2.6
Labour hold
Swing 0.1 Lab to C
2019 Notional result
2019 Notional result
| Lab | 29285 | 53.9% |
| Con | 17392 | 32.0% |
| LD | 3947 | 7.3% |
| BxP | 2150 | 4.0% |
| Grn | 1173 | 2.2% |
| Oth | 395 | 0.7% |
11893
[/td][td] 21.9%
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