Post by Robert Waller on Jan 8, 2024 19:23:02 GMT
Credits: greenhert, original profile. Pete Whitehead, boundary changes. bjornhattan, 2021 Census calculations. Adam Gray collection and addition of 2023 local election results. I updated and added material and comments, including the final two paragraphs
South Suffolk was created in 1983 from the Sudbury part of the former Sudbury & Woodbridge constituency, and resembles the Sudbury constituency of 1918-50. Up to and including the December 2019 election it comprised the whole of Babergh District Council plus the area surrounding the village of Clare from West Suffolk (formerly in St Edmundsbury before that council was merged with Forest Heath in 2019).
South Suffolk covers the south of Suffolk and its most prominent settlements are the towns of Sudbury (2021 population 24,000) and Hadleigh (8,750) and the old wool town of Lavenham (only 1,225, but renowned for its preserved condition). Sudbury was famous for textile weaving before the Industrial Revolution and was the birthplace of several famous British artists, notably John Constable and Thomas Gainsborough. The ancient market town of Hadleigh nearby was home to Wat Tyler, one of the leaders of the Peasants' Revolt of 1381. Many of its historic buildings were preserved through the process of pargeting, whereby waterproof plastering was applied to building walls. The village of Great Cornard is essentially a satellite of Sudbury, as is Little Cornard. There was considerable expansion in the Great Cornard section of Sudbury in the 1950s and 1960s to take in London ‘overspill’. By contrast Lavenham is known for not expanding. Rather it grew to be one of the richest towns in Britain from the medieval wool trade, and one of the families who benefitted from this trade, the Springs, later became influential in British and Irish politics up until the early 21st century, with Dick Spring becoming Tanaiste from 1997 to 1999 and Richard Spring (now Lord Risby) becoming a Conservative MP in Suffolk for 18 years. Lavenham's market square and quaint streets still serve as popular locations for rural and historic films.
South Suffolk is relatively average in terms of qualification levels but has a high proportion of owner-occupiers, 71.8%, and 43.4% are outright owner-occupiers. Like most of East Anglia, South Suffolk is mostly white (96.7% on 2021 census statistics) with an ageing population, 26.6% being over 65 in 2021, which ranks 45th out of the 575 constituencies in England and Wales (on new boundaries). It is slightly more middle class than the national average overall, but this varies within the seat. For example over 43% are in professional and managerial occupations in the rural Leavenheath, Nayland & Boxford MSOA in central Babergh, but that figure is as low as 28% in urban Sudbury and 26% in Great Cornard. These are also the MSOAs with the highest proportion of social rented housing, although in both it falls just short of 20%, and these two also have a higher than 50% rate of deprivation in at least one dimension – joined in this only by Sudbury North & Long Melford - and it might surprise the tourist, attracted by the latter’s magnificent ‘wool church’ and wide tree lined main street, that the deprivation recorded in this MSOA is found more in the council estate dominated northern parts of Long Melford than in those of Sudbury.
South Suffolk has been Conservative since its creation in 1983, but not always safely so, and it and its predecessor constituencies have their fair share of interesting political history. In 1841 in the old constituency of Sudbury, David Ochterlony Dyce Sombre became the first ever British MP from an ethnic minority; however, he was subsequently declared insane and he lost his seat in Parliament in 1842. The said Sudbury constituency was won by Labour in 1945 only to be abolished in 1950 when it was merged with Woodbridge to become Sudbury & Woodbridge. John Hare, the first Conservative MP for Sudbury & Woodbridge, became the father-in-law of US Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer and in the final year of his life became Treasurer of the Royal Horticultural Society, fitting for an MP representing a large rural constituency in East Anglia. A 1963 by-election caused by Mr Hare being elevated to the peerage as Viscount Blakenham (a title currently held by his grandson Caspar) saw Keith Stainton become its MP. Mr Stainton became critical of Margaret Thatcher's policy of deflation in 1980 and as an indirect result failed to be selected in the new South Suffolk constituency, losing to Tim Yeo. Mr Yeo gained notoriety during John Major's "Back to Basics" campaign in 1993 when he was found to have fathered a love child with Conservative councillor Julia Stent whilst Minister for the Environment; Mr Yeo subsequently resigned his post. He held on in 1997 and 2001 mainly due to split opposition between Labour and the Liberal Democrats. He held the seat until 2015 when he was deselected by the local Conservative Association in favour of James Cartlidge, this seat's current MP, and it apparently reverted to being a very safe Conservative seat with the collapse of the Liberal Democrat challenge.
Locally, Babergh has traditionally been Conservative overall although Independents have often kept them in check, and recently the Green Party has been acquiring a strong base in the rural parts of this seat; only in Sudbury has there enough been enough Labour support to reliably elect any Labour councillors. In the most recent Suffolk county council elections in May 2021 however, it was the Greens who gained Sudbury electoral division, as well as the rural Cosford north east of Sudbury and Peninsula south of Ipswich comprising the territory between the rivers Orwell and Stour.
This progress continued apace in the all-out Babergh district elections in May 2023, when the Greens became the largest party after they gained six seats to a total of 10 and the Tories lost eight, to be reduced to 7. Labour won one (Sudbury North East), which was down one, and the Liberal Democrats gained two to return 5 overall – all in the villages, in Assington, Box Vale, Capel St Mary, Copdock & Washford and Sproughton & Pinewood (one out of two). The Conservatives only held on in Bures St Mary & Nayland, Chadacre, Great Cornard (two out of three), both seats in Lavenham and Sproughton & Pinewood (the other one out of two). But it was the Greens who were triumphant recording some remarkably convincing victories, such as with 89% of the vote in SE Cosford and 83% in NW Cosford.
The boundary changes here removed the West Suffolk element (Clare and Cavendish) making this seat coterminous with the Babergh district. The Clare area is somewhat more Conservative than what remains but the numbers involved are not large so notionally there was only a small reduction in both the numerical and percentage Conservative lead.
However these are notional results for the December 2019 general election and do not in any way take into account the Green surge in local elections in the 2020s so far. Adding up all the votes in Babergh, and hence in the new constituency, in May 2023 produces the following remarkable finding: Greens 28%, Conservatives 23%, Liberal Democrats 20%, Independents 18%, Labour 11%. Previous versions of the Almanac have pointed out that Suffolk has not been the most favourable county for the Liberal Democrats and their predecessors. The last Liberal MP in Suffolk was Edgar Granville, defeated in the county constituency of Eye in 1951.
Then, however, it came to look like one of the most promising parts of the land for the Green party. In a way this was understandable, as South Suffolk, for example, does include some environment clearly worth protecting and preserving – though the Greens have not done well in the most chocolate box elements, such as Lavenham, still a rare Conservative held ward, and Long Melford, won by Independents (with Greens standing) in 2023. The Clare and Cavendish area lost in the boundary changes is also very pretty and was won by the Tories in 2023. The Greens did win East Bergholt ward, which includes Constable’s Flatford Mill on the north bank of the Stour. The Green candidate selected for the 2024 general election was a local Babergh district councillor, Jessie Carter, elected at the top of the poll (by some way) in the two member Sudbury NW ward, as a gain from the Conservatives in May 2023. The Liberal Democrats also selected a candidate (they are in coalition with the Greens and Independents in control of Babergh council).
Yet in the actual election in July 2024, local election results did not translate into preferences for a national government, and the two parties that advanced the most were not those prominent municipally. Labour advanced by 7.5% to me forward in second place, and the Reform party took 19% from a standing start, probably the single most significant receptacle for a Tory share that collapsed from 62% to 33%. The division of position was sufficient for James Cartlidge MP to hang on, with a majority less than one seventh as large as in 2019. All indicated an intrusion of competitive and divided electoral politics into this attractive backwater of deep England.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 26.6% 45/575
Owner occupied 71.8% 133/575
Private rented 15.0% 439/575
Social rented 13.3% 370/575
White 96.7% 97/575
Black 0.5% 442/575
Asian 0.9% 527/575
Managerial & professional 35.3% 213/575
Routine & Semi-routine 22.9% 308/575
Degree level 29.5% 358/575
No qualifications 17.4% 314/575
Students 4.5% 489/575
General Election 2024: South Suffolk
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative James Cartlidge 16,082 33.0 −29.1
Labour Emma Bishton 13,035 26.7 +7.5
Reform UK Bev England 9,252 19.0 N/A
Liberal Democrats Tom Bartleet 6,424 13.2 +0.5
Green Jessie Carter 4,008 8.2 +2.2
C Majority 3,047 6.3 –36.6
Turnout 48,801 65.7 –4.8
Registered electors 73,385
Conservative hold
Swing 18.3 C to Lab
General Election 2019: South Suffolk
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative James Cartlidge 33,270 62.2 +1.7
Labour Elizabeth Hughes 10,373 19.4 -8.4
Liberal Democrats David Beavan 6,702 12.5 +6.7
Green Robert Lindsay 3,144 5.9 +2.7
C Majority 22,897 42.8 +10.1
Turnout 53,489 70.2 -1.6
Conservative hold
Swing 5.1 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
South Suffolk consists of
95.4% of South Suffolk
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_094_South%20Suffolk_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Result (Rallings & Thrasher)
[/quote]
South Suffolk was created in 1983 from the Sudbury part of the former Sudbury & Woodbridge constituency, and resembles the Sudbury constituency of 1918-50. Up to and including the December 2019 election it comprised the whole of Babergh District Council plus the area surrounding the village of Clare from West Suffolk (formerly in St Edmundsbury before that council was merged with Forest Heath in 2019).
South Suffolk covers the south of Suffolk and its most prominent settlements are the towns of Sudbury (2021 population 24,000) and Hadleigh (8,750) and the old wool town of Lavenham (only 1,225, but renowned for its preserved condition). Sudbury was famous for textile weaving before the Industrial Revolution and was the birthplace of several famous British artists, notably John Constable and Thomas Gainsborough. The ancient market town of Hadleigh nearby was home to Wat Tyler, one of the leaders of the Peasants' Revolt of 1381. Many of its historic buildings were preserved through the process of pargeting, whereby waterproof plastering was applied to building walls. The village of Great Cornard is essentially a satellite of Sudbury, as is Little Cornard. There was considerable expansion in the Great Cornard section of Sudbury in the 1950s and 1960s to take in London ‘overspill’. By contrast Lavenham is known for not expanding. Rather it grew to be one of the richest towns in Britain from the medieval wool trade, and one of the families who benefitted from this trade, the Springs, later became influential in British and Irish politics up until the early 21st century, with Dick Spring becoming Tanaiste from 1997 to 1999 and Richard Spring (now Lord Risby) becoming a Conservative MP in Suffolk for 18 years. Lavenham's market square and quaint streets still serve as popular locations for rural and historic films.
South Suffolk is relatively average in terms of qualification levels but has a high proportion of owner-occupiers, 71.8%, and 43.4% are outright owner-occupiers. Like most of East Anglia, South Suffolk is mostly white (96.7% on 2021 census statistics) with an ageing population, 26.6% being over 65 in 2021, which ranks 45th out of the 575 constituencies in England and Wales (on new boundaries). It is slightly more middle class than the national average overall, but this varies within the seat. For example over 43% are in professional and managerial occupations in the rural Leavenheath, Nayland & Boxford MSOA in central Babergh, but that figure is as low as 28% in urban Sudbury and 26% in Great Cornard. These are also the MSOAs with the highest proportion of social rented housing, although in both it falls just short of 20%, and these two also have a higher than 50% rate of deprivation in at least one dimension – joined in this only by Sudbury North & Long Melford - and it might surprise the tourist, attracted by the latter’s magnificent ‘wool church’ and wide tree lined main street, that the deprivation recorded in this MSOA is found more in the council estate dominated northern parts of Long Melford than in those of Sudbury.
South Suffolk has been Conservative since its creation in 1983, but not always safely so, and it and its predecessor constituencies have their fair share of interesting political history. In 1841 in the old constituency of Sudbury, David Ochterlony Dyce Sombre became the first ever British MP from an ethnic minority; however, he was subsequently declared insane and he lost his seat in Parliament in 1842. The said Sudbury constituency was won by Labour in 1945 only to be abolished in 1950 when it was merged with Woodbridge to become Sudbury & Woodbridge. John Hare, the first Conservative MP for Sudbury & Woodbridge, became the father-in-law of US Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer and in the final year of his life became Treasurer of the Royal Horticultural Society, fitting for an MP representing a large rural constituency in East Anglia. A 1963 by-election caused by Mr Hare being elevated to the peerage as Viscount Blakenham (a title currently held by his grandson Caspar) saw Keith Stainton become its MP. Mr Stainton became critical of Margaret Thatcher's policy of deflation in 1980 and as an indirect result failed to be selected in the new South Suffolk constituency, losing to Tim Yeo. Mr Yeo gained notoriety during John Major's "Back to Basics" campaign in 1993 when he was found to have fathered a love child with Conservative councillor Julia Stent whilst Minister for the Environment; Mr Yeo subsequently resigned his post. He held on in 1997 and 2001 mainly due to split opposition between Labour and the Liberal Democrats. He held the seat until 2015 when he was deselected by the local Conservative Association in favour of James Cartlidge, this seat's current MP, and it apparently reverted to being a very safe Conservative seat with the collapse of the Liberal Democrat challenge.
Locally, Babergh has traditionally been Conservative overall although Independents have often kept them in check, and recently the Green Party has been acquiring a strong base in the rural parts of this seat; only in Sudbury has there enough been enough Labour support to reliably elect any Labour councillors. In the most recent Suffolk county council elections in May 2021 however, it was the Greens who gained Sudbury electoral division, as well as the rural Cosford north east of Sudbury and Peninsula south of Ipswich comprising the territory between the rivers Orwell and Stour.
This progress continued apace in the all-out Babergh district elections in May 2023, when the Greens became the largest party after they gained six seats to a total of 10 and the Tories lost eight, to be reduced to 7. Labour won one (Sudbury North East), which was down one, and the Liberal Democrats gained two to return 5 overall – all in the villages, in Assington, Box Vale, Capel St Mary, Copdock & Washford and Sproughton & Pinewood (one out of two). The Conservatives only held on in Bures St Mary & Nayland, Chadacre, Great Cornard (two out of three), both seats in Lavenham and Sproughton & Pinewood (the other one out of two). But it was the Greens who were triumphant recording some remarkably convincing victories, such as with 89% of the vote in SE Cosford and 83% in NW Cosford.
The boundary changes here removed the West Suffolk element (Clare and Cavendish) making this seat coterminous with the Babergh district. The Clare area is somewhat more Conservative than what remains but the numbers involved are not large so notionally there was only a small reduction in both the numerical and percentage Conservative lead.
However these are notional results for the December 2019 general election and do not in any way take into account the Green surge in local elections in the 2020s so far. Adding up all the votes in Babergh, and hence in the new constituency, in May 2023 produces the following remarkable finding: Greens 28%, Conservatives 23%, Liberal Democrats 20%, Independents 18%, Labour 11%. Previous versions of the Almanac have pointed out that Suffolk has not been the most favourable county for the Liberal Democrats and their predecessors. The last Liberal MP in Suffolk was Edgar Granville, defeated in the county constituency of Eye in 1951.
Then, however, it came to look like one of the most promising parts of the land for the Green party. In a way this was understandable, as South Suffolk, for example, does include some environment clearly worth protecting and preserving – though the Greens have not done well in the most chocolate box elements, such as Lavenham, still a rare Conservative held ward, and Long Melford, won by Independents (with Greens standing) in 2023. The Clare and Cavendish area lost in the boundary changes is also very pretty and was won by the Tories in 2023. The Greens did win East Bergholt ward, which includes Constable’s Flatford Mill on the north bank of the Stour. The Green candidate selected for the 2024 general election was a local Babergh district councillor, Jessie Carter, elected at the top of the poll (by some way) in the two member Sudbury NW ward, as a gain from the Conservatives in May 2023. The Liberal Democrats also selected a candidate (they are in coalition with the Greens and Independents in control of Babergh council).
Yet in the actual election in July 2024, local election results did not translate into preferences for a national government, and the two parties that advanced the most were not those prominent municipally. Labour advanced by 7.5% to me forward in second place, and the Reform party took 19% from a standing start, probably the single most significant receptacle for a Tory share that collapsed from 62% to 33%. The division of position was sufficient for James Cartlidge MP to hang on, with a majority less than one seventh as large as in 2019. All indicated an intrusion of competitive and divided electoral politics into this attractive backwater of deep England.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 26.6% 45/575
Owner occupied 71.8% 133/575
Private rented 15.0% 439/575
Social rented 13.3% 370/575
White 96.7% 97/575
Black 0.5% 442/575
Asian 0.9% 527/575
Managerial & professional 35.3% 213/575
Routine & Semi-routine 22.9% 308/575
Degree level 29.5% 358/575
No qualifications 17.4% 314/575
Students 4.5% 489/575
General Election 2024: South Suffolk
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative James Cartlidge 16,082 33.0 −29.1
Labour Emma Bishton 13,035 26.7 +7.5
Reform UK Bev England 9,252 19.0 N/A
Liberal Democrats Tom Bartleet 6,424 13.2 +0.5
Green Jessie Carter 4,008 8.2 +2.2
C Majority 3,047 6.3 –36.6
Turnout 48,801 65.7 –4.8
Registered electors 73,385
Conservative hold
Swing 18.3 C to Lab
General Election 2019: South Suffolk
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative James Cartlidge 33,270 62.2 +1.7
Labour Elizabeth Hughes 10,373 19.4 -8.4
Liberal Democrats David Beavan 6,702 12.5 +6.7
Green Robert Lindsay 3,144 5.9 +2.7
C Majority 22,897 42.8 +10.1
Turnout 53,489 70.2 -1.6
Conservative hold
Swing 5.1 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
South Suffolk consists of
95.4% of South Suffolk
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_094_South%20Suffolk_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Result (Rallings & Thrasher)
| Con | 31094 | 62.1% |
| Lab | 9621 | 19.2% |
| LD | 6360 | 12.7% |
| Grn | 3031 | 6.1% |
| maj | 21473 | 42.9% |
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