Post by John Chanin on Jan 8, 2024 11:39:22 GMT
This is based on the original by @europeanlefty , with the usual enhanced description and 2021 census data.
Leicester South covers the southern areas and city centre of Leicester, stretching from the centre down through Southfields to Knighton in the south east and Eyres Monsell in the south west. It also takes in the main campuses of both of Leicester’s universities.
Leicester goes back to at least the Iron Age, making it one of the UK’s oldest settlements. It has survived through time as a Roman town and tribal capital; a bishopric under the Saxons; a major regional town throughout the middle ages, Tudor period and the civil war; a major industrial centre from the industrial revolution to the 1980s; and finally as a city and a major regional centre to the present day. Its biggest explosion in size took place during and after the industrial revolution, as canals and railways connected the city to both the Leicestershire coalfields and the cities of London and Birmingham. Numerous mills and factories sprang up, at first involved in hosiery, textiles and shoe manufacture but later involved in engineering, as well as a steelworks. In 1936, the League of Nation’s Bureau of Statistics identified Leicester as the second richest city in Europe. Much of this industry remains, however it has almost entirely disappeared from the parts of the city covered by this seat. Leicester’s politics also has a radical history, and the city was a stronghold of radicalism in the mid-nineteenth century. Leading Chartist Thomas Cooper had a shop in the town and the Chartists started two riots within six years in the 1840s. In 1936, Leicester would play host the Jarrow March on its way to London. Furthermore, the Leicester Secular Society was founded in 1851, making it the world’s oldest such society. Since the end of the second world war, mass house building of both council and privately-owned housing estates, and large-scale immigration have had their impact on Leicester, and especially on its politics, as will be seen later on.
Leicester South is in the top quartile for deprivation. Despite this, it actually contains the most upmarket area of Leicester, the suburb of Knighton at its south eastern edge, which is over 50% managerial, and close to that for people with degrees. It also has by far the highest owner-occupation - indeed the highest in the city (at least within its administrative boundaries, not just in this seat). There is a substantial south asian population here, but nowhere near as high as the 3 wards on the north-east of the seat, part of Leicester’s enormous asian population, where it reaches as high as 80% in Spinney Hills, where just 4% of the population is white. However unlike in Leicester East the community is predominantly Muslim here. This east Leicester section makes up 40% of the seat, and has been enhanced by the minor boundary change, which has moved in 2000 voters from Evington ward to bring Leicester East down to size. Stoneygate is relatively up market, but Wycliffe ward, just to the east of the city centre, has a massive 58% in routine or semi-routine jobs, and just 17% with degrees. It is also a council estate ward, with a substantial amount of private renting, unlike Spinney Hills which is almost entirely private (although increasingly rented rather than owner-occupied).
The city centre, included in Castle ward (although this also extends to the south of the large campus of Leicester University and the neighbouring Victoria Park, to the suburb of Clarendon Park) is as always rather different. Half the population are students, and of those working managerial jobs are nearly as high as in Knighton. As always high levels of students are associated with high levels of private renting, although much student accommodation is over the border in Oadby. As a student ward the ethnic minority population is much lower, similar to Knighton and Saffron ward which forms a long thin strip running south from the city centre to the edge of the city, and includes Leicester City’s King Power stadium alongside the river Soar. In the north of Saffron ward, a charming name giving an ambience of a rural past, just to the south west of the city centre, is Leicester’s other university, De Montfort, also associated with the usual private renting. In the far south is Eyres Monsell which stretches almost to the river Sence on the border with Blaby and Wigston Districts. As with Knighton the urban area is continuous over the city border here. Eyres Monsell and Saffron are part of west Leicester rather than east, and have a much lower ethnic minority population, with the former, and the southern part of the latter, still 80% white. They are however thoroughly working class with qualifications just as low as in the three eastern asian wards, and a great deal of council housing. The southern part of Saffron ward is actually part of the Aylestone Park area, and in the one major boundary change in Leicester, Aylestone ward and its 8,000 voters has been removed from this seat to the undersized Leicester West.
In summary this is a working class seat, with qualifications a little higher than might be expected, due to the two universities, in the top 20 seats in the country for ethnic minorities, and low levels of owner-occupation. Average incomes are quite low in this seat, over £100 per week behind the national average and nearly £65 per week behind the regional average. Most industries are roughly in line with the national average in terms of the percentage of local jobs in those industries. The exceptions are manufacturing, which is less than half its average, demonstrating just how much the area’s industry has declined since its heyday; and education at 15.3% compared to 8.9% nationally, mostly because of the two universities.
As a deprived, student heavy seat with a large minority population and a lot of people working in education, this looks like the archetype of a safe Labour seat. Today it is, and Labour’s majority 45% makes it the safest Labour seat in Leicester, and in the whole of the East Midlands. However, it hasn’t always been like that, and has in fact been represented by all three major parties since its creation in 1974. Its first election was a narrow Conservative win in February 1974, before being gained by Labour at the general election in October that year. The Conservatives won it back in 1983, only to lose it again in 1987. From just 3% that year, the Labour majority climbed to 18% in 1992 and 34% in 1997, and it was starting to look like a safe Labour seat. However, at the 2004 by-election held under the shadow of the Iraq war, the LibDems came from third to take the seat, and although they lost it again in 2005, they held Labour’s majority below 10%. However, Labour increased their majority at every election between then and 2017, and with only a small swing against them, it is once again a safe Labour seat. This is reflected in local elections where Labour hold all the seats on the city council. Or at least they did - the Greens won the city centre Castle ward in 2023. The loss of Aylestone ward, where the Liberal Democrats have some strength , will if anything strengthen Labour’s position. The Conservative vote in Knighton has faded away. There is little trace of Labour’s problems in the Hindu community of East Leicester here, with the asian population being predominantly Muslim. Overall, this is a historically marginal seat that became safe for Labour in 1997 and never looked back (2004 notwithstanding). As a student-heavy seat, it is an area that was less hostile to Corbynism than much of the country, and when its ethnic minority population and relative deprivation are added to that, it starts to look untouchable. Despite its history, this must be considered a seat that Labour are highly unlikely ever to lose.
The MP who won the seat back for Labour in 2005 was Peter Soulsby, leader of Leicester City Council. Following the establishment of a directly elected mayor for Leicester, Soulsby resigned in 2011 to stand for the new post, which he duly won. The by-election that followed had none of the excitement of 2004. The new candidate Jonathan Ashworth won by a crushing majority, and is still the MP here. He is a classic Spad, born in Manchester, and a member of the Shadow Cabinet.
Census data: Owner-occupied 43% (536/575 in England & Wales), private rented 35% (34th), social rented 22% (107th).
: White 39%(556th), Black 9%(67th), South Asian 39%(14th), Mixed 4%(132nd), Other 8%(78th)
: Muslim 35%(14th), Hindu 8%(16th), Sikh 4%(30th)
: Managerial & professional 32% (454th), Routine & Semi-routine 39% (36th)
: Degree level 31%(321st), Minimal qualifications 31%(171st)
: Students 24% (13th), Over 65: 11% (537th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 97% from Leicester S, and 3% from Leicester E
89% of the old seat is in the new one, with 11% going to Leicester W
Leicester South covers the southern areas and city centre of Leicester, stretching from the centre down through Southfields to Knighton in the south east and Eyres Monsell in the south west. It also takes in the main campuses of both of Leicester’s universities.
Leicester goes back to at least the Iron Age, making it one of the UK’s oldest settlements. It has survived through time as a Roman town and tribal capital; a bishopric under the Saxons; a major regional town throughout the middle ages, Tudor period and the civil war; a major industrial centre from the industrial revolution to the 1980s; and finally as a city and a major regional centre to the present day. Its biggest explosion in size took place during and after the industrial revolution, as canals and railways connected the city to both the Leicestershire coalfields and the cities of London and Birmingham. Numerous mills and factories sprang up, at first involved in hosiery, textiles and shoe manufacture but later involved in engineering, as well as a steelworks. In 1936, the League of Nation’s Bureau of Statistics identified Leicester as the second richest city in Europe. Much of this industry remains, however it has almost entirely disappeared from the parts of the city covered by this seat. Leicester’s politics also has a radical history, and the city was a stronghold of radicalism in the mid-nineteenth century. Leading Chartist Thomas Cooper had a shop in the town and the Chartists started two riots within six years in the 1840s. In 1936, Leicester would play host the Jarrow March on its way to London. Furthermore, the Leicester Secular Society was founded in 1851, making it the world’s oldest such society. Since the end of the second world war, mass house building of both council and privately-owned housing estates, and large-scale immigration have had their impact on Leicester, and especially on its politics, as will be seen later on.
Leicester South is in the top quartile for deprivation. Despite this, it actually contains the most upmarket area of Leicester, the suburb of Knighton at its south eastern edge, which is over 50% managerial, and close to that for people with degrees. It also has by far the highest owner-occupation - indeed the highest in the city (at least within its administrative boundaries, not just in this seat). There is a substantial south asian population here, but nowhere near as high as the 3 wards on the north-east of the seat, part of Leicester’s enormous asian population, where it reaches as high as 80% in Spinney Hills, where just 4% of the population is white. However unlike in Leicester East the community is predominantly Muslim here. This east Leicester section makes up 40% of the seat, and has been enhanced by the minor boundary change, which has moved in 2000 voters from Evington ward to bring Leicester East down to size. Stoneygate is relatively up market, but Wycliffe ward, just to the east of the city centre, has a massive 58% in routine or semi-routine jobs, and just 17% with degrees. It is also a council estate ward, with a substantial amount of private renting, unlike Spinney Hills which is almost entirely private (although increasingly rented rather than owner-occupied).
The city centre, included in Castle ward (although this also extends to the south of the large campus of Leicester University and the neighbouring Victoria Park, to the suburb of Clarendon Park) is as always rather different. Half the population are students, and of those working managerial jobs are nearly as high as in Knighton. As always high levels of students are associated with high levels of private renting, although much student accommodation is over the border in Oadby. As a student ward the ethnic minority population is much lower, similar to Knighton and Saffron ward which forms a long thin strip running south from the city centre to the edge of the city, and includes Leicester City’s King Power stadium alongside the river Soar. In the north of Saffron ward, a charming name giving an ambience of a rural past, just to the south west of the city centre, is Leicester’s other university, De Montfort, also associated with the usual private renting. In the far south is Eyres Monsell which stretches almost to the river Sence on the border with Blaby and Wigston Districts. As with Knighton the urban area is continuous over the city border here. Eyres Monsell and Saffron are part of west Leicester rather than east, and have a much lower ethnic minority population, with the former, and the southern part of the latter, still 80% white. They are however thoroughly working class with qualifications just as low as in the three eastern asian wards, and a great deal of council housing. The southern part of Saffron ward is actually part of the Aylestone Park area, and in the one major boundary change in Leicester, Aylestone ward and its 8,000 voters has been removed from this seat to the undersized Leicester West.
In summary this is a working class seat, with qualifications a little higher than might be expected, due to the two universities, in the top 20 seats in the country for ethnic minorities, and low levels of owner-occupation. Average incomes are quite low in this seat, over £100 per week behind the national average and nearly £65 per week behind the regional average. Most industries are roughly in line with the national average in terms of the percentage of local jobs in those industries. The exceptions are manufacturing, which is less than half its average, demonstrating just how much the area’s industry has declined since its heyday; and education at 15.3% compared to 8.9% nationally, mostly because of the two universities.
As a deprived, student heavy seat with a large minority population and a lot of people working in education, this looks like the archetype of a safe Labour seat. Today it is, and Labour’s majority 45% makes it the safest Labour seat in Leicester, and in the whole of the East Midlands. However, it hasn’t always been like that, and has in fact been represented by all three major parties since its creation in 1974. Its first election was a narrow Conservative win in February 1974, before being gained by Labour at the general election in October that year. The Conservatives won it back in 1983, only to lose it again in 1987. From just 3% that year, the Labour majority climbed to 18% in 1992 and 34% in 1997, and it was starting to look like a safe Labour seat. However, at the 2004 by-election held under the shadow of the Iraq war, the LibDems came from third to take the seat, and although they lost it again in 2005, they held Labour’s majority below 10%. However, Labour increased their majority at every election between then and 2017, and with only a small swing against them, it is once again a safe Labour seat. This is reflected in local elections where Labour hold all the seats on the city council. Or at least they did - the Greens won the city centre Castle ward in 2023. The loss of Aylestone ward, where the Liberal Democrats have some strength , will if anything strengthen Labour’s position. The Conservative vote in Knighton has faded away. There is little trace of Labour’s problems in the Hindu community of East Leicester here, with the asian population being predominantly Muslim. Overall, this is a historically marginal seat that became safe for Labour in 1997 and never looked back (2004 notwithstanding). As a student-heavy seat, it is an area that was less hostile to Corbynism than much of the country, and when its ethnic minority population and relative deprivation are added to that, it starts to look untouchable. Despite its history, this must be considered a seat that Labour are highly unlikely ever to lose.
The MP who won the seat back for Labour in 2005 was Peter Soulsby, leader of Leicester City Council. Following the establishment of a directly elected mayor for Leicester, Soulsby resigned in 2011 to stand for the new post, which he duly won. The by-election that followed had none of the excitement of 2004. The new candidate Jonathan Ashworth won by a crushing majority, and is still the MP here. He is a classic Spad, born in Manchester, and a member of the Shadow Cabinet.
Census data: Owner-occupied 43% (536/575 in England & Wales), private rented 35% (34th), social rented 22% (107th).
: White 39%(556th), Black 9%(67th), South Asian 39%(14th), Mixed 4%(132nd), Other 8%(78th)
: Muslim 35%(14th), Hindu 8%(16th), Sikh 4%(30th)
: Managerial & professional 32% (454th), Routine & Semi-routine 39% (36th)
: Degree level 31%(321st), Minimal qualifications 31%(171st)
: Students 24% (13th), Over 65: 11% (537th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 97% from Leicester S, and 3% from Leicester E
89% of the old seat is in the new one, with 11% going to Leicester W
2017 | % | 2019 | % | Notional | % | |
Labour | 37,157 | 73.6 | 33.606 | 67.0 | 32,396 | 68.2 |
Conservative | 10,896 | 21.6 | 10,931 | 21.8 | 10,373 | 21.8 |
Liberal Democrat | 1,287 | 2.5 | 2,754 | 5.5 | 2,054 | 4.3 |
Brexit | 1,187 | 2.4 | 1,100 | 2.3 | ||
Green | 1.177 | 2.3 | 1,669 | 3.3 | 1,585 | 3.3 |
| Majority | 26,261 | 52.0 | 22,675 | 45.2 | 22,023 | 46.4 |