Post by YL on Jan 7, 2024 18:48:39 GMT
Although this bears the same name as the outgoing Leeds North West constituency and about half of its electorate comes from there, the changes are so extensive that this is effectively a new constituency. Furthermore its political behaviour is likely to resemble the constituency the other half comes from, Pudsey, more than that of Leeds North West. It covers a number of communities in the north-west of the Leeds City Council area, most of which were added to Leeds in 1974 having previously had their own councils. These include Otley, Yeadon and Bramhope, which come from Leeds North West, and Guiseley, Rawdon and Horsforth, which come from Pudsey.It also includes an area around Adel on the northern edge of the Leeds urban area which had been in Leeds before 1974, and comes from Leeds North West.
The Adel area is largely middle class, though there is a small area of council housing in the Holt Park area. It forms the Adel & Wharfedale ward, which stretches north through the village of Bramhope, another middle class area, and then, as its name suggests, all the way down to the River Wharfe, in whose dale it includes the villages of Pool in Wharfedale and Arthington. This is one of the most Conservative wards in Leeds, and was one of only four Leeds wards, and the only one in this constituency to vote for them in 2023.
Also in Wharfedale is the town of Otley, with the Chevin ridge to its south emphasising the feeling that it is a little separate from Leeds. Unlike many West Yorkshire commuter towns it lacks a rail connection, though road connections to Leeds are reasonable. It is not as middle class as Adel or Bramhope, but is still reasonably well off. It shares its ward with most of Yeadon, probably best known as the location of Leeds Bradford Airport. Otley & Yeadon ward has consistently voted Liberal Democrat, usually with Labour in second place.
Guiseley, Yeadon and Rawdon are more or less contiguous, and the rest of Yeadon is in Guiseley & Rawdon ward, though part of Rawdon is not. Guiseley was perhaps best known as the site of Harry Ramsden's original fish and chip establishment, though it closed in 2011. It is demographically mixed, with the western side of the town being more middle class, and does have a station, on the line from Leeds and Bradford to Ilkley. The ward includes a curious western extension including the village of Hawksworth and stretching up onto Ilkley Moor, forming the north-western corner of Leeds's council area. Guiseley & Rawdon ward has most often voted Conservative, though rarely by large margins, and it voted Labour in 2022 and 2023.
The final ward included is Horsforth, which includes the rest of Rawdon. Although also not part of Leeds before 1974 and still having its own Town Council, Horsforth is more embedded in the Leeds urban area than Guiseley, Yeadon or Otley. It is mostly a middle class area, with high levels of professional employment. It has a small university, Leeds Trinity, originally a Catholic teacher training college, which attained university status in 2012, and so there is a student element in the population here. The ward usually voted Liberal Democrat before the 2018 ward boundary changes in Leeds, but in the elections that year not only did the Lib Dems lose their seats to the Conservatives but Labour also moved past them, and Labour have now overtaken the Conservatives as well and now hold all three seats.
Overall, the middle class areas dominate the demographics: proportions in managerial and professional employment are high and proportions in routine jobs low, and it is by some way the most owner occupied of the Leeds constituencies. It is a well educated seat, with a low proportion with no qualifications and a high one with degrees, though the latter proportion is not quite as high as that in Leeds North East. It does not stand out in the statistics on ethnicity or religion, and Leeds Trinity University is not big enough for it to show a high student population overall.
On its old boundaries, Leeds North West had been a surprising Labour gain from third place in 1997, having previously been Conservative; it was then won by the Lib Dems in 2005 and won back by Labour's Alex Sobel in 2017; Sobel won comfortably in 2019, but he has chosen to follow the other parts of his constituency and contest Leeds Central & Headingley. Pudsey was also a Labour gain in 1997 after many years of Conservative representation, but it went back to the Conservatives in 2010, since when it has been represented by Stuart Andrew. Estimates of how this new constituency would have voted in 2019 suggest a Conservative majority of similar size or slightly smaller than that actually won by Andrew in Pudsey; however he has been looking for other seats and the Conservatives have selected a new candidate here, so it will have a new MP. Assuming those estimates are correct and looking at the current polls, that MP would be most likely to be Labour, but this is certainly not a safe Labour seat.
2019 notional result (Rallings & Thrasher)
Con 23311 (41.9%)
Lab 21310 (38.3%)
Lib Dem 8212 (14.8%)
Green 1266 (2.3%)
Brexit Party 729 (1.3%)
Other 844 (1.5%)
Con majority 2001 (3.6%)
The Adel area is largely middle class, though there is a small area of council housing in the Holt Park area. It forms the Adel & Wharfedale ward, which stretches north through the village of Bramhope, another middle class area, and then, as its name suggests, all the way down to the River Wharfe, in whose dale it includes the villages of Pool in Wharfedale and Arthington. This is one of the most Conservative wards in Leeds, and was one of only four Leeds wards, and the only one in this constituency to vote for them in 2023.
Also in Wharfedale is the town of Otley, with the Chevin ridge to its south emphasising the feeling that it is a little separate from Leeds. Unlike many West Yorkshire commuter towns it lacks a rail connection, though road connections to Leeds are reasonable. It is not as middle class as Adel or Bramhope, but is still reasonably well off. It shares its ward with most of Yeadon, probably best known as the location of Leeds Bradford Airport. Otley & Yeadon ward has consistently voted Liberal Democrat, usually with Labour in second place.
Guiseley, Yeadon and Rawdon are more or less contiguous, and the rest of Yeadon is in Guiseley & Rawdon ward, though part of Rawdon is not. Guiseley was perhaps best known as the site of Harry Ramsden's original fish and chip establishment, though it closed in 2011. It is demographically mixed, with the western side of the town being more middle class, and does have a station, on the line from Leeds and Bradford to Ilkley. The ward includes a curious western extension including the village of Hawksworth and stretching up onto Ilkley Moor, forming the north-western corner of Leeds's council area. Guiseley & Rawdon ward has most often voted Conservative, though rarely by large margins, and it voted Labour in 2022 and 2023.
The final ward included is Horsforth, which includes the rest of Rawdon. Although also not part of Leeds before 1974 and still having its own Town Council, Horsforth is more embedded in the Leeds urban area than Guiseley, Yeadon or Otley. It is mostly a middle class area, with high levels of professional employment. It has a small university, Leeds Trinity, originally a Catholic teacher training college, which attained university status in 2012, and so there is a student element in the population here. The ward usually voted Liberal Democrat before the 2018 ward boundary changes in Leeds, but in the elections that year not only did the Lib Dems lose their seats to the Conservatives but Labour also moved past them, and Labour have now overtaken the Conservatives as well and now hold all three seats.
Overall, the middle class areas dominate the demographics: proportions in managerial and professional employment are high and proportions in routine jobs low, and it is by some way the most owner occupied of the Leeds constituencies. It is a well educated seat, with a low proportion with no qualifications and a high one with degrees, though the latter proportion is not quite as high as that in Leeds North East. It does not stand out in the statistics on ethnicity or religion, and Leeds Trinity University is not big enough for it to show a high student population overall.
On its old boundaries, Leeds North West had been a surprising Labour gain from third place in 1997, having previously been Conservative; it was then won by the Lib Dems in 2005 and won back by Labour's Alex Sobel in 2017; Sobel won comfortably in 2019, but he has chosen to follow the other parts of his constituency and contest Leeds Central & Headingley. Pudsey was also a Labour gain in 1997 after many years of Conservative representation, but it went back to the Conservatives in 2010, since when it has been represented by Stuart Andrew. Estimates of how this new constituency would have voted in 2019 suggest a Conservative majority of similar size or slightly smaller than that actually won by Andrew in Pudsey; however he has been looking for other seats and the Conservatives have selected a new candidate here, so it will have a new MP. Assuming those estimates are correct and looking at the current polls, that MP would be most likely to be Labour, but this is certainly not a safe Labour seat.
2019 notional result (Rallings & Thrasher)
Con 23311 (41.9%)
Lab 21310 (38.3%)
Lib Dem 8212 (14.8%)
Green 1266 (2.3%)
Brexit Party 729 (1.3%)
Other 844 (1.5%)
Con majority 2001 (3.6%)
