South Holland and The Deepings
Jan 7, 2024 17:19:27 GMT
Pete Whitehead, carlton43, and 2 more like this
Post by Robert Waller on Jan 7, 2024 17:19:27 GMT
This is based on a helpful and informative original profile by greenhert, with additional and updated material and comments by myself
South Holland & The Deepings was created in 1997 from the "Holland part" of Holland with Boston, and the "Spalding part" of Stamford & Spalding. It comprises the whole of the South Holland district in Lincolnshire plus the communities of Market Deeping and Deeping St James (in South Kesteven district; Deeping St Nicholas is in South Holland district), hence the constituency name. Apart from the urban Lincoln, It is the only seat in the county to be left completely unchanged in the boundary review that was enacted nationally in 2023.
South Holland & The Deepings covers a large, rural area of southern Lincolnshire home to important fertile farmland and wetlands. The largest town in the constituency is Spalding, by the standards of rural Lincolnshire market towns is actually quite large, with a population of just over 30,000 in the 2021 census, up from 27,000 in 2011 and 22,000 in 2001. It is an important flower and vegetable growing town and employs many food pickers, mainly from Eastern Europe in recent years. Food companies dominate the town. Nearby is Holbeach (9,000), a town which the Prime Meridian of Greenwich Mean Time fame passes through, and which also focuses on food processing and bulb growing, particularly of tulips. The whole South Holland local authority had the second highest Leave vote in the 2016 EU membership referendum: 73.6%, behind only neighbouring Boston. Deeping St James (population 7,000) is the largest of the Deepings, a group of small communities near the River Welland where wetland drainage is important, although it is a village whereas Market Deeping (6,500 inhabitants) is a town.
South Holland & The Deepings has a low proportion of degree-holders - 21% in 2021 - and a higher number, 23%, of the population have no qualifications. The former figure reaches its lowest in Spalding East MSOA (19%) particularly in north east Spalding where the smaller Census Output Areas range between 10% and 15%. This is not too surprising given that the constituency has a higher than average rate of employment in both the primary (agriculture, forestry and fishing) and secondary (manufacturing) economic sectors, though the Deepings are closer to the major sub-regional centre of Peterborough feel less cut off, and are more suitable bases for commuting than, say, Spalding, and the graduate level in the Deepings is rather higher, at around 30%
The constituency’s white population is as high as 96%, like the rest of rural Lincolnshire – though in this constituency only 85% of these are classed as White British, with 10% (11,067 people in the 2021 census) White Other, mainly from relatively recently EU accession countries; only 67% of residents of Spalding North, for example, were born in the UK, and between 70% and 75% in the rest of Spalding.
South Holland & The Deepings has an ageing population, the highest Christian population in the East Midlands despite not having a notable indigenous Catholic tradition, and it has a high owner-occupier rate (71.3%) with the proportion of social renters being low (11.9%), focused in NE Spalding and northern Deeping St James. That of private renters has increased from 12.4% to 16.8% between 2011 and 2021, and is at its highest in central Spalding.
South Holland & The Deepings was the safest Conservative seat in the UK by percentage majority in 2019 (62.7% over Labour), and in 2017 its Conservative vote share was also the highest in the country (69.9% in 2017, increasing even further to 75.9% in 2019); in 2019 it was behind only Castle Point and Boston & Skegness in terms of Conservative vote share. Unlike the former two seats, however, there was never any possibility of this seat electing a Labour MP at any time; even in 1997 Sir John Hayes held the new seat with a majority as high as 7,991 over Labour, and with a Conservative vote share of 49.3% that year, 17 percentage points above the average Conservative vote share in England. Sir John held several ministerial positions under David Cameron but has never held any ministerial office under Boris Johnson. He is very conservative in a small c way as well-he is pro-life (and in fact is an SPUC member), anti-globalist, a staunch Eurosceptic like most of his constituents, he voted against same-sex marriage, and once called for capital punishment to be restored.
In term of local government, South Holland is majority Conservative, with Independents providing the only opposition on the council. Deeping St James and Market Deeping meanwhile have a strong Independent tradition, and personal votes and local renown are more important than party labels in both places; from 2015-19 Deeping St James had the only Labour councillor within this constituency's boundaries, but for that he was elected unopposed along with the other two councillors for the ward.
In the most recent South Holland council elections in May 2023, 19 Conservatives were chosen, thus retaining control by the narrowest margin possible as 18 Independents were elected (making five gains from the Tories). All other parties were notable only for their complete lack of success. The only contest the Conservatives won outright in the largest town, Spalding, was in its central Castle ward, where no Independent stood and there was a straight fight with the Greens, who took 35%. Most of the Indy gains were in other Spalding wards. Labour put up only one candidate for the 37 available council places, although he did do quite well in Spalding Wygate (a 32% share and just 23 voters short of being elected). In the smaller South Kesteven section Labour did not repeat their lone Deeping St James triumph of 2015; indeed in May 2023 the finished bottom of the poll there with 16%, which is even worse than it sounds because that was a single candidate in a three member ward (all Independent victors). Because of the Independent predominance, adding up all the votes cast within South Holland and The Deepings in May 2023 is less useful as a guide than usual, except that it does say something about the weaknesses of all parties who might challenge the Tories in a general election: the sum is 54.7% Independent, 37.5% Conservative, 4.8% Green, 3.0% Labour – and zero for the Liberal Democrats.
This constituency is set in the deep south of Lincolnshire and there are aspects of it reminiscent (at a stretch) of the Deep South of the USA – agricultural, largely flat, with long featureless vistas under huge skies, in some ways distrustful of incomers, relatively low educational attainment, strong blue collar element, extremely conservative in politics. Although it is of course true that all such characterisations are generalisations that inevitably distort the full picture, it was nevertheless also arguable that that after the next general election South Holland & The Deepings might again be the safest Conservative seat of all, or close to it. On fact in July 2024 it ranked a little lower at no.17 safest, though that huge majority in 2019 enabled it easily to survive a swing of over 30% to Reform UK, while next door Boston & Skegness was falling.
2021 Census
Age 65+ 23.9% 109/575
Owner occupied 71.3% 146/575
Private rented 16.8% 345/575
Social rented 11.9% 433/575
White 96.3% 109/575
White British 85.6% 271/575
White Other 10.1% 85/575
Black 0.5% 443/575
Asian 1.3% 481/575
Managerial & professional 26.7% 459/575
Routine & Semi-routine 32.2% 36/575
Degree level 21.4% 556/575
No qualifications 23.2% 76/575
Students 3.8% 565/575
General Election 2024: South Holland and the Deepings
Conservative Sir John Hayes 17,462 38.0 −37.9
Reform UK Matthew Swainson 10,606 23.1 N/A
Labour Paul Hilliar 9,086 19.8 +6.6
Independent Mark Edward Le Sage 5,031 11.0 N/A
Liberal Democrats Jack Braginton 1,945 4.2 −2.4
Green Rhys Baker 1,800 3.9 +0.6
C Majority 6,856 14.9 −47.8
Turnout 45,930 60.4 −4.3
Registered electors 78,473
Conservative hold
Swing C to Reform 30.5
General Election 2019: South Holland and the Deepings
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative John Hayes 37,338 75.9 +6.0
Labour Mark Popple 6,500 13.2 −7.2
Liberal Democrats Davina Kirby 3,225 6.6 +3.8
Green Martin Blake 1,613 3.3 +1.5
Independent Rick Stringer 503 1.0 +0.3
C Majority 30,838 62.7 +13.2
2019 electorate 75,990
Turnout 49,179 64.7 -1.1
Conservative hold
Swing 6.6 Lab to C
Boundary Changes and Notional Results
N/A
Unchanged seat
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/east-midlands/East%20Midlands_044_South%20Holland%20and%20The%20Deepings_Landscape.pdf
South Holland & The Deepings was created in 1997 from the "Holland part" of Holland with Boston, and the "Spalding part" of Stamford & Spalding. It comprises the whole of the South Holland district in Lincolnshire plus the communities of Market Deeping and Deeping St James (in South Kesteven district; Deeping St Nicholas is in South Holland district), hence the constituency name. Apart from the urban Lincoln, It is the only seat in the county to be left completely unchanged in the boundary review that was enacted nationally in 2023.
South Holland & The Deepings covers a large, rural area of southern Lincolnshire home to important fertile farmland and wetlands. The largest town in the constituency is Spalding, by the standards of rural Lincolnshire market towns is actually quite large, with a population of just over 30,000 in the 2021 census, up from 27,000 in 2011 and 22,000 in 2001. It is an important flower and vegetable growing town and employs many food pickers, mainly from Eastern Europe in recent years. Food companies dominate the town. Nearby is Holbeach (9,000), a town which the Prime Meridian of Greenwich Mean Time fame passes through, and which also focuses on food processing and bulb growing, particularly of tulips. The whole South Holland local authority had the second highest Leave vote in the 2016 EU membership referendum: 73.6%, behind only neighbouring Boston. Deeping St James (population 7,000) is the largest of the Deepings, a group of small communities near the River Welland where wetland drainage is important, although it is a village whereas Market Deeping (6,500 inhabitants) is a town.
South Holland & The Deepings has a low proportion of degree-holders - 21% in 2021 - and a higher number, 23%, of the population have no qualifications. The former figure reaches its lowest in Spalding East MSOA (19%) particularly in north east Spalding where the smaller Census Output Areas range between 10% and 15%. This is not too surprising given that the constituency has a higher than average rate of employment in both the primary (agriculture, forestry and fishing) and secondary (manufacturing) economic sectors, though the Deepings are closer to the major sub-regional centre of Peterborough feel less cut off, and are more suitable bases for commuting than, say, Spalding, and the graduate level in the Deepings is rather higher, at around 30%
The constituency’s white population is as high as 96%, like the rest of rural Lincolnshire – though in this constituency only 85% of these are classed as White British, with 10% (11,067 people in the 2021 census) White Other, mainly from relatively recently EU accession countries; only 67% of residents of Spalding North, for example, were born in the UK, and between 70% and 75% in the rest of Spalding.
South Holland & The Deepings has an ageing population, the highest Christian population in the East Midlands despite not having a notable indigenous Catholic tradition, and it has a high owner-occupier rate (71.3%) with the proportion of social renters being low (11.9%), focused in NE Spalding and northern Deeping St James. That of private renters has increased from 12.4% to 16.8% between 2011 and 2021, and is at its highest in central Spalding.
South Holland & The Deepings was the safest Conservative seat in the UK by percentage majority in 2019 (62.7% over Labour), and in 2017 its Conservative vote share was also the highest in the country (69.9% in 2017, increasing even further to 75.9% in 2019); in 2019 it was behind only Castle Point and Boston & Skegness in terms of Conservative vote share. Unlike the former two seats, however, there was never any possibility of this seat electing a Labour MP at any time; even in 1997 Sir John Hayes held the new seat with a majority as high as 7,991 over Labour, and with a Conservative vote share of 49.3% that year, 17 percentage points above the average Conservative vote share in England. Sir John held several ministerial positions under David Cameron but has never held any ministerial office under Boris Johnson. He is very conservative in a small c way as well-he is pro-life (and in fact is an SPUC member), anti-globalist, a staunch Eurosceptic like most of his constituents, he voted against same-sex marriage, and once called for capital punishment to be restored.
In term of local government, South Holland is majority Conservative, with Independents providing the only opposition on the council. Deeping St James and Market Deeping meanwhile have a strong Independent tradition, and personal votes and local renown are more important than party labels in both places; from 2015-19 Deeping St James had the only Labour councillor within this constituency's boundaries, but for that he was elected unopposed along with the other two councillors for the ward.
In the most recent South Holland council elections in May 2023, 19 Conservatives were chosen, thus retaining control by the narrowest margin possible as 18 Independents were elected (making five gains from the Tories). All other parties were notable only for their complete lack of success. The only contest the Conservatives won outright in the largest town, Spalding, was in its central Castle ward, where no Independent stood and there was a straight fight with the Greens, who took 35%. Most of the Indy gains were in other Spalding wards. Labour put up only one candidate for the 37 available council places, although he did do quite well in Spalding Wygate (a 32% share and just 23 voters short of being elected). In the smaller South Kesteven section Labour did not repeat their lone Deeping St James triumph of 2015; indeed in May 2023 the finished bottom of the poll there with 16%, which is even worse than it sounds because that was a single candidate in a three member ward (all Independent victors). Because of the Independent predominance, adding up all the votes cast within South Holland and The Deepings in May 2023 is less useful as a guide than usual, except that it does say something about the weaknesses of all parties who might challenge the Tories in a general election: the sum is 54.7% Independent, 37.5% Conservative, 4.8% Green, 3.0% Labour – and zero for the Liberal Democrats.
This constituency is set in the deep south of Lincolnshire and there are aspects of it reminiscent (at a stretch) of the Deep South of the USA – agricultural, largely flat, with long featureless vistas under huge skies, in some ways distrustful of incomers, relatively low educational attainment, strong blue collar element, extremely conservative in politics. Although it is of course true that all such characterisations are generalisations that inevitably distort the full picture, it was nevertheless also arguable that that after the next general election South Holland & The Deepings might again be the safest Conservative seat of all, or close to it. On fact in July 2024 it ranked a little lower at no.17 safest, though that huge majority in 2019 enabled it easily to survive a swing of over 30% to Reform UK, while next door Boston & Skegness was falling.
2021 Census
Age 65+ 23.9% 109/575
Owner occupied 71.3% 146/575
Private rented 16.8% 345/575
Social rented 11.9% 433/575
White 96.3% 109/575
White British 85.6% 271/575
White Other 10.1% 85/575
Black 0.5% 443/575
Asian 1.3% 481/575
Managerial & professional 26.7% 459/575
Routine & Semi-routine 32.2% 36/575
Degree level 21.4% 556/575
No qualifications 23.2% 76/575
Students 3.8% 565/575
General Election 2024: South Holland and the Deepings
Conservative Sir John Hayes 17,462 38.0 −37.9
Reform UK Matthew Swainson 10,606 23.1 N/A
Labour Paul Hilliar 9,086 19.8 +6.6
Independent Mark Edward Le Sage 5,031 11.0 N/A
Liberal Democrats Jack Braginton 1,945 4.2 −2.4
Green Rhys Baker 1,800 3.9 +0.6
C Majority 6,856 14.9 −47.8
Turnout 45,930 60.4 −4.3
Registered electors 78,473
Conservative hold
Swing C to Reform 30.5
General Election 2019: South Holland and the Deepings
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative John Hayes 37,338 75.9 +6.0
Labour Mark Popple 6,500 13.2 −7.2
Liberal Democrats Davina Kirby 3,225 6.6 +3.8
Green Martin Blake 1,613 3.3 +1.5
Independent Rick Stringer 503 1.0 +0.3
C Majority 30,838 62.7 +13.2
2019 electorate 75,990
Turnout 49,179 64.7 -1.1
Conservative hold
Swing 6.6 Lab to C
Boundary Changes and Notional Results
N/A
Unchanged seat
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/east-midlands/East%20Midlands_044_South%20Holland%20and%20The%20Deepings_Landscape.pdf
