Post by YL on Jan 6, 2024 20:47:58 GMT
Most of this constituency is a slice of the Leeds urban area, stretching from inner city Harehills at its western end to the communities along the eastern side of the outer ring road such as Cross Gates, Seacroft and Whinmoor. However, as part of the boundary changes it has gained the ward of Garforth & Swillington from the dismembered Elmet & Rothwell constituency, and this extends it across the M1 and out of the main Leeds urban area, though it is still entirely within the City of Leeds for local government purposes. This addition will change its political character somewhat, though not as much as in the initial proposals, which calculations suggested would actually have left it notionally Conservative.
One distinctive aspect of inner city Leeds compared with most other English cities is the survival of a large number of back to back houses, and Harehills has a particular concentration of these. The survival of back to backs in Leeds is not because the city had less of a slum clearance programme, but because when other cities introducted by-laws forbidding their construction in the mid 19th century the by-laws introduced in Leeds still allowed them, but imposed rules on their design. Hence back to backs in inner city Leeds are more analogous to the by-law terraced houses found in similar inner city areas in Sheffield or Birmingham, say, than to the long demolished slum back to backs in those cities. Harehills is a diverse inner city area, with the highest Muslim population in Leeds; it remains a working class area with high deprivation. The initial proposals of the Boundary Commission proposed removing it from the constituency, but a well organised campaign saw it retained here.
East of Harehills is an extensive area of more modern working class suburbs, including large areas of council housing. This includes Gipton, which shares its ward with Harehills, Killingbeck and Seacroft, which form the next ward to the east, and on the other side of the ring road Swarcliffe and Whinmoor, which from a ward with Cross Gates. The areas inside the ring road are mostly of the cottage estate type, though there are a few tower blocks, while Swarcliffe and Whinmoor are more modern low rise housing. The northern edge of Whinmoor, on the other hand, has more in the way of private housing and the same is true of much of Cross Gates, and these areas are less deprived. Cross Gates & Whinmoor and Killingbeck & Seacroft wards have voted consistently for Labour; Gipton & Harehills also has in recent years but did elect Lib Dems in the Noughties.
South of Cross Gates are Whitmoor and Austhorpe in the east of Temple Newsam ward; the whole ward used to be included here, but the western part is being removed in the boundary changes. These are again mostly private housing and are among the most middle class parts of the constituency; the constituency also includes Temple Newsam house and park, which give their name to the ward. Temple Newsam ward has also usually voted Labour, but it did vote Conservative a couple of times in the Noughties; demographics would suggest that the part retained in this constituency is a little more Conservative than the ward as a whole.
Austhorpe actually straddles the ward boundary between Temple Newsam and Garforth & Swillington, which is the ward added to the constituency. The rest of the ward is on the other side of the M1, and contains the town of Garforth and the smaller village of Swillington. This is historically a mining area, but with the proximity to Leeds city it has developed into a commuter area with mixed demographics; Swillington is more working class than Garforth, where deprivation is generally quite low. The ward used to vote Labour, but a localist group took all three seats in the 2018 elections (when all seats were up due to boundary changes) and have retained them since. The size of the Conservative majority in the Elmet & Rothwell constituency in 2019 suggests that it voted for them then.
In spite of the boundary changes, this remains a working class constituency with high proportions in routine jobs, with no qualifications and in socially rented housing, and low proportions in professional and managerial jobs, with degrees and in owner occupied housing; all of this is especially true of Gipton & Harehills and Killingbeck & Seacroft wards. Deprivation is high in those two wards and also in Swarcliffe but rather lower elsewhere; on 2019 figures Seacroft includes the the 60th most deprived Lower Super Output Area out of the 32844 in England.
The original Leeds East created in 1885 had almost nothing in common with this constituency; at that time Gipton and Harehills were in Leeds North and the rest was in Barkston Ash, a constituency which took its name from one of the old wapentakes of the West Riding. The current constituency was essentially created in 1955, though of course its boundaries have changed a few times and it has not previously included Garforth, which remained in Barkston Ash until 1983 and has since been in Elmet or Elmet & Rothwell. It has always voted Labour, electing Denis Healey for many years and since 2015 the left winger Richard Burgon, a shadow cabinet member under Jeremy Corbyn but not under Keir Starmer.
The swing to the Conservatives in 2019 was a little above average and as mentioned it was estimated that the original proposal to remove the very Labour Harehills and add Garforth & Swillington would have wiped out Burgon's majority. The removal of part of Temple Newsam ward instead of Harehills had less of an effect and Labour were still estimated to have been ahead in the constituency in 2019. On current polling even the original proposal would have been unlikely to have led to a Conservative seat in practice and the final version of the changes still left this essentially a safe Labour seat, and in 2024 the Tory vote fell away, with Reform UK moving ahead of them to come second.
2019 notional result (Rallings & Thrasher):
Lab 20879 (47.0%)
Con 18156 (40.8%)
Brexit Party 2601 (5.9%)
Lib Dem 1626 (3.7%)
Green 946 (2.1%)
Other 243 (0.5%)
Lab majority 2723 (6.1%)
2024 result:
Richard Burgon (Lab) 18610 (47.2%)
David Dresser (Reform UK) 7345 (18.6%)
Sam Firth (Con) 6898 (17.5%)
Jennifer Norman (Green) 3506 (8.9%)
Tobie Abel (Lib Dem) 1445 (3.7%)
David Hough (Yorkshire Party) 664 (1.7%)
Catherine Dobson (SDP) 519 (1.3%)
"Niko Omilana" (Ind) 222 (0.6%)
Pete Young (Ind) 179 (0.5%)
One distinctive aspect of inner city Leeds compared with most other English cities is the survival of a large number of back to back houses, and Harehills has a particular concentration of these. The survival of back to backs in Leeds is not because the city had less of a slum clearance programme, but because when other cities introducted by-laws forbidding their construction in the mid 19th century the by-laws introduced in Leeds still allowed them, but imposed rules on their design. Hence back to backs in inner city Leeds are more analogous to the by-law terraced houses found in similar inner city areas in Sheffield or Birmingham, say, than to the long demolished slum back to backs in those cities. Harehills is a diverse inner city area, with the highest Muslim population in Leeds; it remains a working class area with high deprivation. The initial proposals of the Boundary Commission proposed removing it from the constituency, but a well organised campaign saw it retained here.
East of Harehills is an extensive area of more modern working class suburbs, including large areas of council housing. This includes Gipton, which shares its ward with Harehills, Killingbeck and Seacroft, which form the next ward to the east, and on the other side of the ring road Swarcliffe and Whinmoor, which from a ward with Cross Gates. The areas inside the ring road are mostly of the cottage estate type, though there are a few tower blocks, while Swarcliffe and Whinmoor are more modern low rise housing. The northern edge of Whinmoor, on the other hand, has more in the way of private housing and the same is true of much of Cross Gates, and these areas are less deprived. Cross Gates & Whinmoor and Killingbeck & Seacroft wards have voted consistently for Labour; Gipton & Harehills also has in recent years but did elect Lib Dems in the Noughties.
South of Cross Gates are Whitmoor and Austhorpe in the east of Temple Newsam ward; the whole ward used to be included here, but the western part is being removed in the boundary changes. These are again mostly private housing and are among the most middle class parts of the constituency; the constituency also includes Temple Newsam house and park, which give their name to the ward. Temple Newsam ward has also usually voted Labour, but it did vote Conservative a couple of times in the Noughties; demographics would suggest that the part retained in this constituency is a little more Conservative than the ward as a whole.
Austhorpe actually straddles the ward boundary between Temple Newsam and Garforth & Swillington, which is the ward added to the constituency. The rest of the ward is on the other side of the M1, and contains the town of Garforth and the smaller village of Swillington. This is historically a mining area, but with the proximity to Leeds city it has developed into a commuter area with mixed demographics; Swillington is more working class than Garforth, where deprivation is generally quite low. The ward used to vote Labour, but a localist group took all three seats in the 2018 elections (when all seats were up due to boundary changes) and have retained them since. The size of the Conservative majority in the Elmet & Rothwell constituency in 2019 suggests that it voted for them then.
In spite of the boundary changes, this remains a working class constituency with high proportions in routine jobs, with no qualifications and in socially rented housing, and low proportions in professional and managerial jobs, with degrees and in owner occupied housing; all of this is especially true of Gipton & Harehills and Killingbeck & Seacroft wards. Deprivation is high in those two wards and also in Swarcliffe but rather lower elsewhere; on 2019 figures Seacroft includes the the 60th most deprived Lower Super Output Area out of the 32844 in England.
The original Leeds East created in 1885 had almost nothing in common with this constituency; at that time Gipton and Harehills were in Leeds North and the rest was in Barkston Ash, a constituency which took its name from one of the old wapentakes of the West Riding. The current constituency was essentially created in 1955, though of course its boundaries have changed a few times and it has not previously included Garforth, which remained in Barkston Ash until 1983 and has since been in Elmet or Elmet & Rothwell. It has always voted Labour, electing Denis Healey for many years and since 2015 the left winger Richard Burgon, a shadow cabinet member under Jeremy Corbyn but not under Keir Starmer.
The swing to the Conservatives in 2019 was a little above average and as mentioned it was estimated that the original proposal to remove the very Labour Harehills and add Garforth & Swillington would have wiped out Burgon's majority. The removal of part of Temple Newsam ward instead of Harehills had less of an effect and Labour were still estimated to have been ahead in the constituency in 2019. On current polling even the original proposal would have been unlikely to have led to a Conservative seat in practice and the final version of the changes still left this essentially a safe Labour seat, and in 2024 the Tory vote fell away, with Reform UK moving ahead of them to come second.
2019 notional result (Rallings & Thrasher):
Lab 20879 (47.0%)
Con 18156 (40.8%)
Brexit Party 2601 (5.9%)
Lib Dem 1626 (3.7%)
Green 946 (2.1%)
Other 243 (0.5%)
Lab majority 2723 (6.1%)
2024 result:
Richard Burgon (Lab) 18610 (47.2%)
David Dresser (Reform UK) 7345 (18.6%)
Sam Firth (Con) 6898 (17.5%)
Jennifer Norman (Green) 3506 (8.9%)
Tobie Abel (Lib Dem) 1445 (3.7%)
David Hough (Yorkshire Party) 664 (1.7%)
Catherine Dobson (SDP) 519 (1.3%)
"Niko Omilana" (Ind) 222 (0.6%)
Pete Young (Ind) 179 (0.5%)
