Post by Robert Waller on Jan 5, 2024 21:32:44 GMT
This profile is based in the original by sirbenjamin, with boundary changes by Pete Whitehead, additions and local election comment by myself, and census figures including those calculated for the constituency under new boundaries by bjornhattan
As long ago as c.750 AD, there grew seven oak trees in sufficiently close proximity to one another for a Jute-Saxon settlement to be named 'Seouenaca', or in modern English, Sevenoaks - if sketchy historical records are to be believed.
The trees themselves have been replaced several times, and at various times have numbered more or fewer than seven. In the great storm of 1987 six were blown asunder, but new acorns were planted rather than rename the town 'Onlyoneoakthesedays', which was probably the policy of the LD group on Sevenoaks District Council ...
The version of the Sevenoaks constituency up to and including 2019 consisted of about five sixths of the district - an orphaned ward in the North East of the District being in the Dartford seat, while five wards in the south around Edenbridge and Chiddingstone were in Tonbridge and Malling and included the westernmost point in Kent. A slightly unsatisfactory boundary situation will become a deeply unsatisfactory one, as the proposed Sevenoaks seat will not only continue to exclude parts of Sevenoaks (seven wards in the new Tonbridge constituency) but will also take in a ward from Dartford. The revised and final reports of the Boundary Commission in Kent stuck with the initial proposals except in relation to the new Weald of Kent seat and a couple of its neighbours. Sevenoaks loses Ash and New Ash Green to Tonbridge & Malling, and gains the Dartford wards of Darenth and Wilmington, Sutton-at-Hone & Hawley.
However many oaks it may or may not boast, Sevenoaks town is home to around 30,000 people and has much in common with other towns in the South East outside of, but close enough to That London. Somewhat less compact and 'designed' than other towns in the region, the residents benefit from a unique 'on demand' bus service, as well as three railway stations including the delightfully named 'Bat and Ball'. Local employment opportunities aren't entirely restricted to transport or high street retail - the town is also home to the headquarters of the Active group, one of the largest residential care providers in the country, and (guitar) string manufacturer Rotosound.
In addition to the town of Sevenoaks itself, the most notable settlements are Swanley (population in 2021 nearly 18,000) and Westerham (4,500, with a more villagey feel); the former a convenient commuter base just beyond the Greater London border and with a fairly rapid train service into the capital; the latter a sleepy backwater very near the Surrey boundary, that lost its train service in 1961 (the branch line from Dunton Green now lies largely underneath the M25) and which is probably best known for its eponymous brewery these days.
West Kent is socially and politically very similar to east Surrey, just over the county boundary. The Sevenoaks constituency has the second highest proportion of professional and managerial workers of any seat in Kent, the largest amount of detached houses, and the second smallest proportion of social housing tenants. Not surprisingly, it is one of the safest Conservative seats in the county too. This really is true-blue south-eastern England, a fitting site for Winston Churchill’s Chartwell, the country seat of a man who was a patriotic, even Nationalist Prime Minister in the wartime 1940s and the stable if staid 1950s.
The most professional and managerial workers within the seat are in Sevenoaks West & Chevening (a mighty 56.5% in the 2021 census, the second highest anywhere in Kent after Tunbridge Wells South), and Sevenoaks Town (centre and east) & Weald MSOA at 54.1%. The most working class, by far, is Swanley West - 28.9% in routine and semi-routine jobs. The only concentration of social housing is also in Swanley West (39.7%), particularly along Hart Dyke Road – and it is the only MSOA with a majority of households in any dimension of deprivation. The constituency as a whole is over 91% white, with the Asian population reaching around 5% only in Swanley South & Crockenhill and the very upper class Sevenoaks West & Chevening, and a 6% Black population in the ‘council estate’ Swanley West.
Sevenoaks has been a Tory seat for 100 years in 2024. Even in 1997 and 2001 the majority was five figures, and current MP Laura Trott who succeeded Michael Fallon whose 22 year tenure was perhaps a little too 'hands on' for some. The Lib Dems regained their traditional second place in 2019, following successive elections when UKIP then Labour were the runners-up.
In the most recent local elections here, for the District of Sevenoaks in May 2023, the Conservatives still won 13 of the wards, even during a generally very poor national performance. However, the Liberal Democrats took all four wards in Sevenoaks town, a total of nine councillors, of which six were gains since 2019; only Eastern ward saw two holds, the higher placed of the LD candidates securing a massive 81.7% of the vote there. In the more rural areas the Lib Dems also shared Dunton & Riverhead and Brasted, Chevening & Sundridge with the Tories (in the latter gaining a foothold in the ward which contains the grace and favour home often used by the Foreign Secretary of the day). Meanwhile it was the Green party that gained Eynsford, while Independents retained Crockenhill & Well Hill and Hextable (northern Swanley). The Conservatives did hold all three council places in the one ward added from Dartford: Wilmington, Sutton-at-Hone & Hawley.
Overall according to Adam Gray’s addition, in May 2023 the Tories still led comfortably within the new boundaries of the Sevenoaks constituency, with 45.8% to the Liberal Democrats’ 27.9% in second place. Independents were third most popular, then the Greens (8.6%), and Labour (7.5%) brought up the rear.
As one might expect in a Conservative seat which did not look close even in local elections, even in 2023, there appears little chance of the Tories losing it, and even in 1997 the majority was over 10,000, with Labour and the Lib Dems almost inseparable with a little over 12,000 votes each. With the Lib Dems in second place in 2019 and in the most recent municipal contests, and Labour on the rise in national contention, there may again be split opposition in Sevenoaks in a 2024 general election – and a second century of Conservative representation may well commence.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 21.0% 206/575
Owner occupied 73.5% 89/575
Private rented 13.2% 518/575
Social rented 13.3% 371/575
White 91.3% 273/575
Black 2.0% 236/575
Asian 3.2% 328/575
Managerial & professional 41.8% 84/575
Routine & Semi-routine 16.9% 488/575
Degree level 37.5% 148/575
No qualifications 15.8% 383/575
Students 5.2% 354/575
General election 2019: Sevenoaks
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Laura Trott 30,932 60.7 −3.0
Liberal Democrats Gareth Willis 10,114 19.8 +11.4
Labour Seamus McCauley 6,946 13.6 −7.3
Green Paul Wharton 1,974 3.9 +0.6
Independent Paulette Furse 695 1.4 New
Libertarian Sean Finch 295 0.6 New
C Majority 20,818 40.9 −1.9
Turnout 50,956 71.0 −1.1
Conservative hold
Swing 7.2 C to LD
Boundary Changes
Sevenoaks consists of
93.6% of Sevenoaks
7.4% of Dartford
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_357_Sevenoaks_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional result (Rallings & Thrasher)
As long ago as c.750 AD, there grew seven oak trees in sufficiently close proximity to one another for a Jute-Saxon settlement to be named 'Seouenaca', or in modern English, Sevenoaks - if sketchy historical records are to be believed.
The trees themselves have been replaced several times, and at various times have numbered more or fewer than seven. In the great storm of 1987 six were blown asunder, but new acorns were planted rather than rename the town 'Onlyoneoakthesedays', which was probably the policy of the LD group on Sevenoaks District Council ...
The version of the Sevenoaks constituency up to and including 2019 consisted of about five sixths of the district - an orphaned ward in the North East of the District being in the Dartford seat, while five wards in the south around Edenbridge and Chiddingstone were in Tonbridge and Malling and included the westernmost point in Kent. A slightly unsatisfactory boundary situation will become a deeply unsatisfactory one, as the proposed Sevenoaks seat will not only continue to exclude parts of Sevenoaks (seven wards in the new Tonbridge constituency) but will also take in a ward from Dartford. The revised and final reports of the Boundary Commission in Kent stuck with the initial proposals except in relation to the new Weald of Kent seat and a couple of its neighbours. Sevenoaks loses Ash and New Ash Green to Tonbridge & Malling, and gains the Dartford wards of Darenth and Wilmington, Sutton-at-Hone & Hawley.
However many oaks it may or may not boast, Sevenoaks town is home to around 30,000 people and has much in common with other towns in the South East outside of, but close enough to That London. Somewhat less compact and 'designed' than other towns in the region, the residents benefit from a unique 'on demand' bus service, as well as three railway stations including the delightfully named 'Bat and Ball'. Local employment opportunities aren't entirely restricted to transport or high street retail - the town is also home to the headquarters of the Active group, one of the largest residential care providers in the country, and (guitar) string manufacturer Rotosound.
In addition to the town of Sevenoaks itself, the most notable settlements are Swanley (population in 2021 nearly 18,000) and Westerham (4,500, with a more villagey feel); the former a convenient commuter base just beyond the Greater London border and with a fairly rapid train service into the capital; the latter a sleepy backwater very near the Surrey boundary, that lost its train service in 1961 (the branch line from Dunton Green now lies largely underneath the M25) and which is probably best known for its eponymous brewery these days.
West Kent is socially and politically very similar to east Surrey, just over the county boundary. The Sevenoaks constituency has the second highest proportion of professional and managerial workers of any seat in Kent, the largest amount of detached houses, and the second smallest proportion of social housing tenants. Not surprisingly, it is one of the safest Conservative seats in the county too. This really is true-blue south-eastern England, a fitting site for Winston Churchill’s Chartwell, the country seat of a man who was a patriotic, even Nationalist Prime Minister in the wartime 1940s and the stable if staid 1950s.
The most professional and managerial workers within the seat are in Sevenoaks West & Chevening (a mighty 56.5% in the 2021 census, the second highest anywhere in Kent after Tunbridge Wells South), and Sevenoaks Town (centre and east) & Weald MSOA at 54.1%. The most working class, by far, is Swanley West - 28.9% in routine and semi-routine jobs. The only concentration of social housing is also in Swanley West (39.7%), particularly along Hart Dyke Road – and it is the only MSOA with a majority of households in any dimension of deprivation. The constituency as a whole is over 91% white, with the Asian population reaching around 5% only in Swanley South & Crockenhill and the very upper class Sevenoaks West & Chevening, and a 6% Black population in the ‘council estate’ Swanley West.
Sevenoaks has been a Tory seat for 100 years in 2024. Even in 1997 and 2001 the majority was five figures, and current MP Laura Trott who succeeded Michael Fallon whose 22 year tenure was perhaps a little too 'hands on' for some. The Lib Dems regained their traditional second place in 2019, following successive elections when UKIP then Labour were the runners-up.
In the most recent local elections here, for the District of Sevenoaks in May 2023, the Conservatives still won 13 of the wards, even during a generally very poor national performance. However, the Liberal Democrats took all four wards in Sevenoaks town, a total of nine councillors, of which six were gains since 2019; only Eastern ward saw two holds, the higher placed of the LD candidates securing a massive 81.7% of the vote there. In the more rural areas the Lib Dems also shared Dunton & Riverhead and Brasted, Chevening & Sundridge with the Tories (in the latter gaining a foothold in the ward which contains the grace and favour home often used by the Foreign Secretary of the day). Meanwhile it was the Green party that gained Eynsford, while Independents retained Crockenhill & Well Hill and Hextable (northern Swanley). The Conservatives did hold all three council places in the one ward added from Dartford: Wilmington, Sutton-at-Hone & Hawley.
Overall according to Adam Gray’s addition, in May 2023 the Tories still led comfortably within the new boundaries of the Sevenoaks constituency, with 45.8% to the Liberal Democrats’ 27.9% in second place. Independents were third most popular, then the Greens (8.6%), and Labour (7.5%) brought up the rear.
As one might expect in a Conservative seat which did not look close even in local elections, even in 2023, there appears little chance of the Tories losing it, and even in 1997 the majority was over 10,000, with Labour and the Lib Dems almost inseparable with a little over 12,000 votes each. With the Lib Dems in second place in 2019 and in the most recent municipal contests, and Labour on the rise in national contention, there may again be split opposition in Sevenoaks in a 2024 general election – and a second century of Conservative representation may well commence.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 21.0% 206/575
Owner occupied 73.5% 89/575
Private rented 13.2% 518/575
Social rented 13.3% 371/575
White 91.3% 273/575
Black 2.0% 236/575
Asian 3.2% 328/575
Managerial & professional 41.8% 84/575
Routine & Semi-routine 16.9% 488/575
Degree level 37.5% 148/575
No qualifications 15.8% 383/575
Students 5.2% 354/575
General election 2019: Sevenoaks
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Laura Trott 30,932 60.7 −3.0
Liberal Democrats Gareth Willis 10,114 19.8 +11.4
Labour Seamus McCauley 6,946 13.6 −7.3
Green Paul Wharton 1,974 3.9 +0.6
Independent Paulette Furse 695 1.4 New
Libertarian Sean Finch 295 0.6 New
C Majority 20,818 40.9 −1.9
Turnout 50,956 71.0 −1.1
Conservative hold
Swing 7.2 C to LD
Boundary Changes
Sevenoaks consists of
93.6% of Sevenoaks
7.4% of Dartford
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_357_Sevenoaks_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional result (Rallings & Thrasher)
| Con | 31780 | 61.7% |
| LD | 9987 | 19.4% |
| Lab | 6958 | 13.5% |
| Grn | 1773 | 3.4% |
| Oths | 990 | 1.9% |
| Majority | 21793 | 42.3% |
