Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jan 5, 2024 6:20:31 GMT
This contains details from Merseymike , Pete Whitehead , and myself
Liverpool Wavertree is perhaps unusual as a seat where both of its former Labour MP's soon after left the party, at least for a period but the 2019 result indicated that the preference of the voters in the seat remains firmly for Labour, where new Labour candidate (and former Eurosceptic) Paula Barker gained 72% of the vote. ChangeUK didn't stand much of a chance of winning here.
2019 Notional result[/div]
[/td][td] [/td][td] [/td][/tr][tr][td] Majority [/td][td]
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Liverpool Wavertree is perhaps unusual as a seat where both of its former Labour MP's soon after left the party, at least for a period but the 2019 result indicated that the preference of the voters in the seat remains firmly for Labour, where new Labour candidate (and former Eurosceptic) Paula Barker gained 72% of the vote. ChangeUK didn't stand much of a chance of winning here.
This is south-east Liverpool, but its current six wards are not all alike, and in 2005 and 2010, the seat was a national target by the Liberal Democrats, and their vote rose as high as 37.7% in 2005, but still behind Labour with 52.4%. Their vote dropped slightly and collapsed entirely as was the case across many Labour dominated urban areas in the light of the unpopularity of the coalition, but perhaps more surprisingly, they have never managed to regain second place. Childwall, historically the home of Liverpool's now quite small Jewish community, is also more middle class than average, and the LibDems have taken it locally in elections under the former ward boundaries- but as appears to be the case across the city, that vote does not transfer over to national elections and all of the wards had a clear Labour majority at the 2019 election.
The remaining four wards as they existed at the time are much more working class. Kensington and Fairfield has experienced considerable demographic change as it has shifted from being a predominantly white working class area to approaching 40% BME, only with far more recent arrivals than the longstanding BME community in Liverpool 8. It has the highest proportion of people who do not use English as a first language in the city.. The remainder of the wards, Picton, and Wavertree are Liverpool working class, although Wavertree has a 'Garden Suburb' enclave where Derek Hatton was once a local resident, and all now have sizeable Labour majorities
Boundary changes are substantial without changing the overall electoral picture much (weakens the Lib Dems a bit - strengthens the Greens). Church and Old Swan are removed and replaced by Greenbank, Mossley Hill and St Michaels wards from the Riverside seat. This brings in very "leafy" Liverpool, including St Michael's (yes, the railway station here was partially funded through a deal with Marks and Spencers), and Aigburth. I'm hoping that the micropub I quite like in Aigburth is still open, it's been a while since I was there, and when I was there, the surroundings struck me as being very Chorlton in look and character.
In what is now Aigburth ward, the LibDems handsomely, while Labour took all three seats in the new Kensington, in the hugely different electoral wards created following significant issues with Liverpool City Council.
Boundary changes are substantial without changing the overall electoral picture much (weakens the Lib Dems a bit - strengthens the Greens). Church and Old Swan are removed and replaced by Greenbank, Mossley Hill and St Michaels wards from the Riverside seat. This brings in very "leafy" Liverpool, including St Michael's (yes, the railway station here was partially funded through a deal with Marks and Spencers), and Aigburth. I'm hoping that the micropub I quite like in Aigburth is still open, it's been a while since I was there, and when I was there, the surroundings struck me as being very Chorlton in look and character.
In what is now Aigburth ward, the LibDems handsomely, while Labour took all three seats in the new Kensington, in the hugely different electoral wards created following significant issues with Liverpool City Council.
The new MP was born in the constituency and is firmly on the party's left, and now has inherited a safe Labour seat which will give plenty of opportunity to focus on the poverty-related issues she specialises in.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 13.8% 517/650
Owner-occupied 52.7% 564/650
Private rented 25.7% 66/650
Social rented 20.0% 221/650
White 84.7% 502/650
Black 4.3% 117/650
Asian 5.1% 227/650
Managerial & professional 26.4%
Routine & Semi-routine 24.7%
Degree level 26.6% 293/650
No qualifications 25.5% 230/650
Students 14.9% 62/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 52.3% 486/573
Private rented 28.7% 74/573
Social rented 19.0% 185/573
White 77.7%
Black 4.8%
Asian 7.8%
Managerial & professional 27.5% 422/573
Routine & Semi-routine 21.8% 365/573
Degree level 34.0% 225/573
No qualifications 20.5% 169/573
General Election 2019: Liverpool Wavertree
[/b][/div]Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Paula Barker 31,310 72.2 –7.3
Conservative Catherine Mulhern 4,225 9.7 –2.3
Liberal Democrats Richard Kemp 4,055 9.3 +2.8
Brexit Party Adam Heatherington 1,921 4.4
Green Kay Inckle 1,365 3.1 +1.7
Liberal Mick Coyne 501 1.2
Lab Majority 27,085 62.5 –5.0
[/i][/div]Turnout 43,377 68.4 –1.7
Labour hold
Swing 2.2 Lab to C
[/quote]2019 Notional result[/div]
| Lab | 36133 | 73.0% |
| Con | 4599 | 9.3% |
| LD | 3715 | 7.5% |
| Grn | 2897 | 5.9% |
| BxP | 1881 | 3.8% |
| Oth | 278 | 0.6% |
31534
[/td][td] 63.7%
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