Post by andrewp on Jan 3, 2024 11:43:50 GMT
The shire county of Wiltshire, including the unitary authority of Swindon, has seen significant population growth over the last few decades. Swindon itself has continued to grow a pace and there has been significant growth in many of the other towns, particularly those in the north and west of the county.
Prior to 1997, the county had 5 parliamentary constituencies. A 6th, effectively a second constituency covering the Swindon area, was granted in 1997, a 7th new constituency in the west of the county was created in 2010 - Chippenham, and now in 2024 Wiltshire’s representation increases to 7.5 constituencies as a new cross county constituency shared with neighbouring Gloucestershire is created in the North of the county.
The latter two of these changes have both had a significant effect on the constituency in which the sizeable market town of Chippenham sits.
There was a member of parliament for a Chippenham constituency for nearly 700 years until the name of the seat containing the town was renamed as North Wiltshire in 1983. The seat that existed before 1983, contained the small Wiltshire towns of Calne, Cricklade, Malmesbury and Wootton Bassett in addition to Chippenham itself. In that year, whilst that constituency remained largely the same, its name was changed to North Wiltshire. When Chippenham was reintroduced as a constituency name in 2010 a minority of voters in the new seat, from the town of Chippenham itself, came from North Wiltshire and were joined by Bradford on Avon and surrounding villages from the former Westbury seat and Melksham from Devizes in what was a new and compact constituency in the West of the County.
Now its all change again and this time whilst the area gains an additional constituency, it is less obvious which is the new constituency as a series of new constituencies effectively take their territory roughly 50/50 from 2 existing constituencies, and it is at least arguable that Chippenham is the new seat once again. Despite the name remaining as Chippenham, this new constituency contains around half (48.9%) of the current Chippenham constituency- essentially Chippenham itself ( population 36,000) and Corsham (13,000) but now looks East rather than South and includes just under half ( 46.8%) of the current North Wiltshire constituency-the southern half of that constituency- which is a stretch of countryside including the towns of Calne* ( 19.000) and Royal Wootton Bassett (13,500) * Unfortunately Calne town has been split between constituencies with the southern edge of the town being placed into the Melksham and Devizes constituency.
This new constituency has fairly middling demographics, including a fairly average age profile. It is 94.1% white and 69.1% of people are owner occupiers. 33.1 % of people are educated to degree level and above average percentage of people are employed in higher managerial occupations.
This is largely a constituency of small market towns, popular with commuters to Swindon, Bath and Bristol, all of which are reachable within 45 minutes.
Chippenham is, on the whole, a comfortable middle class market town and is the largest town in the seat- it’s the third largest town in Wilshire. It’s a historic town on the River Avon and was the headquarters of North Wiltshire district prior to the Unitarisation of the County in 2009. It has grown quite substantially in the last 30 years with big estates built at Pewsham in the South East of the town, Cepen Park in the North West and Derriards in the South West. Historically Chippenham is quite strong for the Liberals and Liberal Democrats and is the strongest area of this constituency for that party. In 2021, far from the best year for the party, they won 5 of the town’s 8 electoral divisions to 2 for the Conservatives and an Independent.
Corsham is an affluent town with a population of 13000 and lies 3 miles to the West of Chippenham between Bath and Chippenham. The three divisions covering Corsham town all elected Liberal Democrats in 2021, 2 of them gains from the Conservatives, and a Bath effect of people who largely voted remain in the 2016 EU referendum and have switched from voting Conservative to Liberal Democrat probably influences Corsham. It is also the former home of the Queen ( as Mrs Parker Bowles)
The North Wiltshire territory is more rural and more Conservative. A major feature of the area from 1940 until 2012 was RAF Lyneham, the home of the RAF Hercules force and the RAFs principal transport hub. During the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts the base was used for the repatriation of service personnel who had been killed in those conflicts, with the cortege then being transported through the nearest town of Wootton Bassett. The town got its ‘Royal’ in 2011 in recognition of its role in the repatriations. Wootton Bassett is an old market town close to Swindon which has tripled in size since World War 2, partly due to the growth of Lyneham and partly to its proximity to growing Swindon.
Calne is a comfortable market town 7 miles to the south East of Chippenham which originated as a market town on the route from Bristol to London and had a significant woollen industry in the 17th and 18th centuries.
In the Wiltshire local elections in 2021, the Liberal Democrats were able to enjoy some success here and won 10 divisions in the new constituency to the Conservatives 8 and 1 Independent. The Liberal Democrat’s won 5 of the 8 divisions in Chippenham, all 3 in Corsham and 1 each in Calne and Wootton Bassett. The Conseravtives won 2 in each of Wootton Bassett and Calne and the more rural divisions.
The old Chippenham constituency was the site of long term frustrations for the Liberal Party. In a by election in 1962, the same year as their famous win in Orpington, caused by the elevation of David Eccles to a Viscountcy, the Liberals came within 1,588 of victory. This began a series of close elections with the Conservatives beating the Liberals by less than 2000 votes three further times in 1964, 1966 and October 1974.
When the new Chippenham seat was first created it was estimated to have had a notional Liberal Democrat majority of 2,000 in 2005. The Conservatives made an unusual choice of candidate in 2010 when they selected Wilfred Emmanuel Jones, the black farmer. He was beaten in 2010 by 2,470 by local Liberal Democrat councillor Duncan Hames ( who went on to become Mr Jo Swinson). In 2015 Hames was swept away by Conservative Michelle Donelan by 10,000 votes. Donelan increased that majority to 16,500 in 2017, but then in 2019 the Lib Dems increased their share by 9% at the expense of Labour, whilst Donelan’s share remained steady, to cut the majority back to 11.288.
North Wiltshire hasn’t been quite so competitive with the closest contest being in 1997 when then new Conservative candidate James Gray won by 3,475 although the constituency remained semi marginal through the 2000s . In 2019 the Lib Dems also made the first steps to recovery there and increased their share from 18% to 27% and in the course cut Gray’s majority from 22800 to 17600.
Neither of the sitting Conservative MPs for Chippenham or Wiltshire North will be contesting this new constituency- the Conservatives have selected a new candidate- Nic Puntis. The ‘new’ Chippenham is probably a slightly more distant target for the Liberal Democrat’s than the current Chippenham is- the current Chippenham boundaries are probably close to the optimum boundaries for the Liberal Democrat’s to win a seat in Wiltshire. The notional majority here is probably something in the region of 25% but Chippenham is still the number one Liberal Democrat hope in the county.
