|
|
Post by johnloony on Jan 11, 2024 10:42:01 GMT
Tendring predictions:
Candidate minimum mean median maximum
Labour— 17.5 22.6 22.5 28
Goldman 12.9 20.2 21.0 27
Conserv 15.0 18.7 19.0 23.0
Mayzes 4.0 8.9 8.5 16.0
Reform 4.0 6.8 6.5 11.4
Bayford 0.5 5.7 6.1 14.0
Holland 3.0 4.8 4.7 7.0
Chittock 2.0 4.3 4.0 9.0
Lib Dem 2.0 3.6 2.7 10.0
UKIP—— 1.0 3.5 3.0 8.6
|
|
|
|
Post by robbienicoll on Jan 11, 2024 23:56:05 GMT
12 entries to open the year, all on time and correct and with a maiden appearance from carolus - welcome! South Portslade, Brighton and Hove: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 33% (corradino) to 49% (iainbhx and Robert Waller). Littlemoor and Preston, Dorset: 6 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with batman, corradino, kevinf and Tony Otim Labour gain, and iainbhx and Right Leaning Conservative hold. Quays, Salford: 9 Labour gain from Liberal Democrat, with johnloony, manchesterman and peterl Liberal Democrat hold. Bluehouse, Tendring (yikes): 7 Labour hold, with andrewp, iainbhx, kevinf and Right Leaning Independent (Goldman) gain and batman Conservative gain. Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b6SvBGiWBz60CdRkX7Qu5PF0i-kcYsbVt1Bl-s7ppU4/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all! |
|
|
|
Post by Robert Waller on Jan 12, 2024 13:25:59 GMT
Congratulations to rightleaning for the week, though it was very close between the top five, who all did well in the face of a hard challenge. Thanks too to robbienicoll for getting the results done so swiftly. |
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Jan 12, 2024 13:48:00 GMT
Congratulations to rightleaning for the week, though it was very close between the top five, who all did well in the face of a hard challenge. Thanks too to robbienicoll for getting the results done so swiftly. And despite the Clacton horror show, no-one really did too badly, still everything to play for the month for everyone. |
|
|
|
Post by manchesterman on Jan 12, 2024 14:51:47 GMT
Damn. I almost picked Goldman to win in Tendring but dithered and went for Labour by a couple of percent. had I not done that, I'd have won the week but no one's fault but my own. Congratulations to rightleaning and well done to everyone for avoiding a potential nightmare week of scores given the 'madness of Tendring'. |
|
|
|
Post by johnloony on Jan 12, 2024 16:43:59 GMT
Tendring predictions:
ACTUAL Candidate minimum mean median maximum
13.9 Labour— 17.5 22.6 22.5 28
30.4 Goldman 12.9 20.2 21.0 27
15.3 Conserv 15.0 18.7 19.0 23.0
8.7 Mayzes 4.0 8.9 8.5 16.0
9.1 Reform 4.0 6.8 6.5 11.4
7.6 Bayford 0.5 5.7 6.1 14.0
4.0 Holland 3.0 4.8 4.7 7.0
1.0 Chittock 2.0 4.3 4.0 9.0
3.7 Lib Dem 2.0 3.6 2.7 10.0
6.4 UKIP—— 1.0 3.5 3.0 8.6
So collectively we weren't drastically wrong. We all overestimated Labour and underestimated Goldman, but otherwise 7 of the 10 candidates were within our predicted range.
|
|
|
|
Post by kevinf on Jan 14, 2024 16:42:19 GMT
Casenove on Hackney is going to ‘fun’ for predictors this week….
|
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Jan 14, 2024 21:17:02 GMT
Casenove on Hackney is going to ‘fun’ for predictors this week…. The thing to remember is that many of the votes will have already been cast by post and that suspensions late on don't have much effect on the result - see Newham 2022 and Cllr Belgica Guana. |
|
|
|
Post by batman on Jan 17, 2024 10:18:13 GMT
HACKNEY, Cazenove : Lab (disowned) 39 C 26 LD 24 Green 11
RICHMOND-UPON-THAMES, Hampton N. : LD 39 C 33 Green 15 Lab 13
RICHMOND-UPON-THAMES, Teddington : LD 57 C 23 Green 9 Lab 8 Ind 3
SHEFFIELD, Stannington : LD 46 Lab 31 C 12 Green 9 L 2
WANDSWORTH, Tooting Broadway : Lab 56 C 22 Green 15 LD 7
WARWICK, Warwick All Saints & Woodloes : Lab 55 C 39 LD 6
|
|
|
|
Post by kevinf on Jan 17, 2024 13:07:20 GMT
Hackney
Lab 36.5, LibDem 34, Con 16.5, Green 13
Richmond - Hampton North
LD 53, Green 21, Con 20, Lab 6
Richmond Teddington
LD 64, Con 15, Lab 10, Green 8, Ind 3
Sheffield
LD 52, Lab 25, Green 11, Con 9, Liberal 3
Wandsworth
Lab 40, Con 26, Green 20, LD 14
Warwick
Lab 52, Con 30, LD 18
|
|
|
|
Post by johnloony on Jan 17, 2024 19:02:36 GMT
HACKNEY: Lab 38 LD 39 Grn 16 Con 7
RICHMOND Hampton North: LD 41 Con 19 Grn 28 Lab 12
RICHMOND Teddington: LD 60 Con 13 Lab 10 Grn 10 Ind 7
SHEFFIELD: LD 43 Lab 27 Con 11 Grn 16 Lib 3
WANDSWORTH: Lab 50 Con 14 Grn 22 LD 14
WARWICK: Lab 58 Con 21 LD 21
|
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
|
Post by Tony Otim on Jan 17, 2024 21:28:37 GMT
Hackney: LD 35.4; Lab 33.4; Con 19.0; Grn 12.2
Hampton North: LD 42.2; Con 30.0; Grn 14.9; Lab 12.9
Teddington: LD 61.3; Con 15.5; Lab 11.8; Grn 7.9; Stockford 3.5
Sheffield: LD 50.6; Lab 24.7; Con 13.6; Grn 10.0; Lib 1.1
Wandsworth: Lab 59.8; Con 17.5; Grn 16.5; LD 6.2
Warwick: Lab 55.3; Con 33.2; LD 11.5
|
|
|
|
Post by carolus on Jan 17, 2024 22:05:34 GMT
Hackney, Cazenove
LD 40, Lab 35, Con 15, Grn 10
Richmond, Hampton North
LD 55, Con 25, Grn 10, Lab 10
Richmond, Teddington
LD 60, Con 20, Lab 10, Grn 8, Ind 2
Sheffield, Stannington
LD 45, Lab 30, Con 10, Grn 10, Lib 5
Wandsworth, Tooting Broadway
Lab 65, Con 20, Grn 10, LD 5
Warwick, All Saints & Woodloes
Lab 50, Con 35, LD 15
|
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Jan 17, 2024 22:36:38 GMT
Hackney. Cazenove. Lab 41 LD 36 Con 15 Green 8
Richmond, Hampton North, LD 55 Con 26 Green 12 Lab 7
Richmond, Teddington. LD 60 Con 18 Lab 9 Green 8 Ind 5
Sheffield. Stannington. LD 48 Lab 27 Con 12 Green 12 Lib 1
Wandsworth. Tooting Broadway. Lab 64 Con 16 Green 10 LD 10
Warwick. All Saints and Sidloes. Lab 55 Con 32 LD 13
|
|
|
|
Post by corradino on Jan 17, 2024 23:19:10 GMT
Hackney, Cazenove: Pascal (Lab?) 42, LD 28, Con 20, Green 10.
Richmond, Hampton North: LD 39, Con 31, Green 22, Lab 8.
Richmond, Teddington: LD 63, Con 17, Lab 10, Green 8, Ind 2.
Sheffield, Stannington: LD 49, Lab 28, Con 10, Green 9, Liberal 4.
Wandsworth, Tooting Broadway: Lab 60, Green 18,Con 15, LD 7.
Warwick, All Saints and Woodloes: Lab 44, Con 40, LD 16.
|
|
|
|
Post by Robert Waller on Jan 17, 2024 23:40:05 GMT
Hackney. Cazenove. Lab 34 LD 36 Con 15 Green 15
Richmond, Hampton North, LD 49 Con 27 Green 14 Lab 10
Richmond, Teddington. LD 58 Con 18 Lab 7 Green 15 Ind 2
Sheffield. Stannington. LD 50 Lab 25 Con 12 Green 10 Lib 3
Wandsworth. Tooting Broadway. Lab 57 Con 15 Green 17 LD 11
Warwick. All Saints and Sidloes. Lab 50 Con 30 LD 20
|
|
|
|
Post by manchesterman on Jan 18, 2024 0:19:22 GMT
HACKNEY, Cazenove : LD 36, Lab 35, C 17, Green 12
RICHMOND-UPON-THAMES, Hampton N. : LD 49, C 25, Green 18, Lab 8
RICHMOND-UPON-THAMES, Teddington : LD 56, C 20, Green 12, Lab 9, Ind 3
SHEFFIELD, Stannington : LD 49, Lab 27, C 11, Green 11, Lib 2
WANDSWORTH, Tooting Broadway : Lab 58, C 19, Green 15, LD 8
WARWICK, Warwick All Saints & Woodloes : Lab 52, C 32, LD 16
|
|
peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,468 
|
Post by peterl on Jan 18, 2024 1:38:27 GMT
Hackney. Cazenove. Lab 44 LD 37 Con 10 Green 9
Richmond, Hampton North, LD 59 Con 21 Green 15 Lab 5
Richmond, Teddington. LD 63 Lab 11 Con 10 Green 9 Ind 7
Sheffield. Stannington. LD 55 Lab 18 Green 15 Con 8 Lib 4
Wandsworth. Tooting Broadway. Lab 67 Con 13 Green 12 LD 8
Warwick. All Saints and Sidloes. Lab 58 Con 25 LD 17
|
|
|
|
Post by rightleaning on Jan 18, 2024 3:45:22 GMT
Hackney. Cazenove. LD 38, Lab 34, Green 16, Con 12
Richmond, Hampton North, LD 54, Con 25, Green 14, Lab 7
Richmond, Teddington. LD 61, Green 17, Con 15, Lab 6, Ind 1
Sheffield. Stannington. LD 52, Lab 25, Con 10, Green 12, Lib 1
Wandsworth. Tooting Broadway. Lab 54, Con 18, Green 17 LD 11
Warwick. All Saints and Sidloes. Lab 52, Con 28, LD 20
|
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Jan 18, 2024 5:12:59 GMT
Hackney LBC, Cazenove: Lab 40 Con 24 LDm 19 Grn 17
Richmond LBC, Hampton North: LDm 45 Con 31 Grn 14 Lab 10
Richmond LBC, Teddington: LDm 58 Con 20 Grn 12 Lab 8 Ind 2
Sheffield MBC, Stannington: LDm 41 Lab 31 Grn 16 Con 11 Lib 1
Wandsworth LBC, Tooting Broadway: Lab 62 Con 16 Grn 12 LDm 10
Warwick DC, All Saints and Sidloes: Lab 49 Con 34 LDm 17
|
|
