Post by John Chanin on Jan 2, 2024 16:13:30 GMT
This is an updated version of the profile by @europeanlefty , with the usual new census and boundary data, and an enhanced description of its parts.
This constituency lies in south-eastern Northamptonshire. The constituency is centred on the large town of Wellingborough, although it also includes the nearby towns of Rushden and Higham Ferrers which form a single urban area. The constituency, like most in Northamptonshire was oversized, and the Boundary Commission have reduced it down to size by excising most of the rural sections. The large village of Irchester, a tributary of Rushden remains in the seat while the villages to the south have been added to South Northamptonshire across the unitary boundary. And the villages to the west of Wellingborough in the expanded Earls Barton ward have been added to Daventry across the unitary boundary. Meanwhile the small town of Irthlingborough across the Nene from Higham Ferrers has been added to the seat, while the rural villages in the northern part of the ward remain in the Corby & East Northamptonshire seat. What was predominantly an urban seat, now becomes almost entirely one.
Wellingborough itself is an Anglo-Saxon town, sitting on the north side of the river Nene, although it took until the twentieth century for the town to grow to any significant size. The industry in this area is now, however, quite a distant memory. The town grew quite extensively post-second world war, mostly thanks to London overspill, and now has a population of 60,000, accounting for just under half the seat. Partly as a relic of this twentieth century growth, Wellingborough has significant areas of deprivation. All of its wards have more routine than managerial workers, and more people with minimal qualifications than degrees. The north-west of the town is however more inter-war and suburban, and a little better off. There is a lot of council housing to the west of town, and in the Croyland area to the south, and the centre contains much unattractive old terraced housing. There is a substantial ethnic minority population in the town of around 20%, well spread and evenly divided between south asian and black, but with concentrations in the centre and by the station on the east edge of the town, where Finedon ward is only half in the town. Despite this working class profile Labour won only 1 seat out of 12 at the first unitary elections in 2021 (and lost all 4 at the 2019 county elections), although historically they would normally win the two smaller district wards in the centre and east of the town.
The Rushden/Higham Ferrers area is very nearly as large, and the Boundary Commission has now added Rushden to the constituency name. As with much of Northamptonshire, the main industry of this area was shoemaking. This was massive in Rushden – which at one time had over 100 shoemaking factories. Higham Ferrers to the north was once an independent market town, and is the most up market part of the constituency, with more managerial workers than routine, and the most owner-occupiers, although still with a surprisingly low level of educational qualifications. It has grown together with Rushden, which is a little up market of Wellingborough but not much. The area does however lack the ethnic minority population of Wellingborough, and Labour have no councillors here, and haven’t for a long time.
There are just 13,000 voters outside the two towns. Half of these come from the small town of Irthlingborough, just across the river Nene from Higham Ferrers, which has been detached from its rural hinterland, sent to Corby. Its main claim to fame is as the home of Rushden & Diamonds FC, promoted all the way up to the Football League when it was owned by the boss of Doc Martins, whose base used to be here. The town has a quarrying history, and is not entirely devoid of Labour votes. As far as one can tell from the census data which includes the rural north of the ward, it has similar demographics to Rushden. The only true rural areas in the seat are now around the villages of Finedon, straddling the A6, between Wellingborough and Kettering, another area with an iron mining history, and Irchester to the south-west of Rushden.
In summary this is one of those Midlands working class seats that has a surprising and longstanding loyalty to the Conservative Party, going back much further than the big swings associated with Brexit seen in other industrial towns, although the Leave vote here was estimated at 64%. Manufacturing is still a reasonable proportion of the local workforce, and the constituency comes in the top 100 for routine workers and minimal qualifications. After its creation in 1918, it was immediately won by Labour, making it one of the earliest constituencies to be won by Labour. It was a left-leaning marginal in its early years, going National Liberal in 1922 and Labour in 1923, 1951 and 1955, and otherwise voting for the party of government until being gained by the Conservatives in a 1969 by-election. In 1983 Raunds and Thrapston were removed, and the seat stayed Conservative until 1997 when it was gained by Labour with a majority of just 187. The Conservatives regained it in 2005, and it has seen quite a swing since then, to leave Peter Bone with a 35.7% majority as of 2019. Bone, who won the seat in 2005 is a former accountant from Essex, and a staunch right winger. Unlike some seats, there isn't a massively large public-sector workforce to boost the Labour Party. Labour’s strongest areas are in the deprived areas and central Wellingborough and Rushden, while the Conservatives dominate everywhere else. Overall, this is formerly marginal seat that, thanks to political change amongst its core demographics, and especially Brexit, now looks unassailably Conservative. Or at least it did - Bone was suspended from the House of Commons, and lost a recall vote, and in the subsequent by-election Labour achieved a large win on a low turnout. However holding it at a General Election is likely to be another matter entirely. The boundary changes here should be broadly neutral.
Census data: Owner-occupied 64% (331/575 in England & Wales), private rented 19% (252nd), social rented 17% (219th).
: White 87%(337th), Black 4%(147th), South Asian 4%(218th), Mixed 3%(203rd), Other 2%(363rd)
: Managerial & professional 31% (493rd), Routine & Semi-routine 37% (72nd)
: Degree level 24%(513th), Minimal qualifications 35%(78th)
: Students 5% (335th), Over 65- 18% (338th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 92% from Wellingborough, and 8% from Corby
88% of the old seat is in the new one, with 6% going to Sth Northamptonshire, and 5% to Daventry
This constituency lies in south-eastern Northamptonshire. The constituency is centred on the large town of Wellingborough, although it also includes the nearby towns of Rushden and Higham Ferrers which form a single urban area. The constituency, like most in Northamptonshire was oversized, and the Boundary Commission have reduced it down to size by excising most of the rural sections. The large village of Irchester, a tributary of Rushden remains in the seat while the villages to the south have been added to South Northamptonshire across the unitary boundary. And the villages to the west of Wellingborough in the expanded Earls Barton ward have been added to Daventry across the unitary boundary. Meanwhile the small town of Irthlingborough across the Nene from Higham Ferrers has been added to the seat, while the rural villages in the northern part of the ward remain in the Corby & East Northamptonshire seat. What was predominantly an urban seat, now becomes almost entirely one.
Wellingborough itself is an Anglo-Saxon town, sitting on the north side of the river Nene, although it took until the twentieth century for the town to grow to any significant size. The industry in this area is now, however, quite a distant memory. The town grew quite extensively post-second world war, mostly thanks to London overspill, and now has a population of 60,000, accounting for just under half the seat. Partly as a relic of this twentieth century growth, Wellingborough has significant areas of deprivation. All of its wards have more routine than managerial workers, and more people with minimal qualifications than degrees. The north-west of the town is however more inter-war and suburban, and a little better off. There is a lot of council housing to the west of town, and in the Croyland area to the south, and the centre contains much unattractive old terraced housing. There is a substantial ethnic minority population in the town of around 20%, well spread and evenly divided between south asian and black, but with concentrations in the centre and by the station on the east edge of the town, where Finedon ward is only half in the town. Despite this working class profile Labour won only 1 seat out of 12 at the first unitary elections in 2021 (and lost all 4 at the 2019 county elections), although historically they would normally win the two smaller district wards in the centre and east of the town.
The Rushden/Higham Ferrers area is very nearly as large, and the Boundary Commission has now added Rushden to the constituency name. As with much of Northamptonshire, the main industry of this area was shoemaking. This was massive in Rushden – which at one time had over 100 shoemaking factories. Higham Ferrers to the north was once an independent market town, and is the most up market part of the constituency, with more managerial workers than routine, and the most owner-occupiers, although still with a surprisingly low level of educational qualifications. It has grown together with Rushden, which is a little up market of Wellingborough but not much. The area does however lack the ethnic minority population of Wellingborough, and Labour have no councillors here, and haven’t for a long time.
There are just 13,000 voters outside the two towns. Half of these come from the small town of Irthlingborough, just across the river Nene from Higham Ferrers, which has been detached from its rural hinterland, sent to Corby. Its main claim to fame is as the home of Rushden & Diamonds FC, promoted all the way up to the Football League when it was owned by the boss of Doc Martins, whose base used to be here. The town has a quarrying history, and is not entirely devoid of Labour votes. As far as one can tell from the census data which includes the rural north of the ward, it has similar demographics to Rushden. The only true rural areas in the seat are now around the villages of Finedon, straddling the A6, between Wellingborough and Kettering, another area with an iron mining history, and Irchester to the south-west of Rushden.
In summary this is one of those Midlands working class seats that has a surprising and longstanding loyalty to the Conservative Party, going back much further than the big swings associated with Brexit seen in other industrial towns, although the Leave vote here was estimated at 64%. Manufacturing is still a reasonable proportion of the local workforce, and the constituency comes in the top 100 for routine workers and minimal qualifications. After its creation in 1918, it was immediately won by Labour, making it one of the earliest constituencies to be won by Labour. It was a left-leaning marginal in its early years, going National Liberal in 1922 and Labour in 1923, 1951 and 1955, and otherwise voting for the party of government until being gained by the Conservatives in a 1969 by-election. In 1983 Raunds and Thrapston were removed, and the seat stayed Conservative until 1997 when it was gained by Labour with a majority of just 187. The Conservatives regained it in 2005, and it has seen quite a swing since then, to leave Peter Bone with a 35.7% majority as of 2019. Bone, who won the seat in 2005 is a former accountant from Essex, and a staunch right winger. Unlike some seats, there isn't a massively large public-sector workforce to boost the Labour Party. Labour’s strongest areas are in the deprived areas and central Wellingborough and Rushden, while the Conservatives dominate everywhere else. Overall, this is formerly marginal seat that, thanks to political change amongst its core demographics, and especially Brexit, now looks unassailably Conservative. Or at least it did - Bone was suspended from the House of Commons, and lost a recall vote, and in the subsequent by-election Labour achieved a large win on a low turnout. However holding it at a General Election is likely to be another matter entirely. The boundary changes here should be broadly neutral.
Census data: Owner-occupied 64% (331/575 in England & Wales), private rented 19% (252nd), social rented 17% (219th).
: White 87%(337th), Black 4%(147th), South Asian 4%(218th), Mixed 3%(203rd), Other 2%(363rd)
: Managerial & professional 31% (493rd), Routine & Semi-routine 37% (72nd)
: Degree level 24%(513th), Minimal qualifications 35%(78th)
: Students 5% (335th), Over 65- 18% (338th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 92% from Wellingborough, and 8% from Corby
88% of the old seat is in the new one, with 6% going to Sth Northamptonshire, and 5% to Daventry
| 2017 | % | 2019 | % | 2024 by-election | % | Notional | % | |
| Conservative | 30,579 | 57.4 | 32,277 | 62.2 | 7,408 | 24.6 | 29,333 | 62.4 |
| Labour | 18,119 | 34.0 | 13,737 | 26.5 | 13,844 | 45.9 | 13,295 | 28.3 |
| Liberal Democrat | 1,782 | 3.3 | 4,078 | 7.9 | 1,422 | 4.7 | 3,140 | 6.7 |
| UKIP/Reform | 1,804 | 3.4 | 3,919 | 13.0 | ||||
| Green | 956 | 1.8 | 1,821 | 3.5 | 1,020 | 3.4 | 1,276 | 2.7 |
| Others(6) | 2,532 | 8.4 | ||||||
| Majority | 12,460 | 23.4 | 18,540 | 35.7 | -6,436 | -21.3 | 16,038 | 34.1 |