Post by Robert Waller on Jan 2, 2024 0:27:15 GMT
This is a collation of original profiles by jamie, comments on boundary changes by Pete Whitehead, and local elections, census analysis, and extra comments by myself
Ostensibly Blyth Valley is abolished in the boundary changes, but the majority of the seat (less Blyth itself) forms the largest element (36k voters) in the new Cramlington & Killingworth. There it is joined by almost as many voters from North Tyneside borough (25k from the North Tyneside constituency and 10k from Tynemouth) and another 3k from part of the Castle ward of Newcastle. The Conservatives will have been ahead in the Blyth Valley section of the seat but this will have been outvoted fairly comfortably by the North Tyneside section so it is the Conservatives who technically lose out from the boundary changes here - though as they were unlikely to hold Blyth Valley at the next election, the effect then is likely to be one less Labour seat
The constituency includes the town of Cramlington. Originally an area of coal mining like the other parts of the constituency, the town was chosen as a post-war New Town. This has led to significant housing development, much of it decidedly middle class in character. The town is the most middle class area of the constituency and also has commuter links with Newcastle. Cramlington almost certainly voted Conservative in 2017 and will have done so by a large margin in 2019. The town is trending the fastest towards the Conservatives of anywhere in the constituency. The Conservative vote is strongest in the owner-occupier housing estates in the north of the town, with absolutely towering margins in the Northburn area. Labour are strongest in the more working class area of Mayfield, along with the socially mixed Southfield estate. Even here, it will have been competitive in 2019.
The next section of the constituency is the Seaton Valley. A collection of somewhat more rural former coal mining villages, this area will have been fairly representative of the constituency as a whole, if a bit more Labour leaning. Seaton Sluice is the most Labour leaning settlement while on the opposite end Holywell will have been close in 2017 and comfortably Conservative in 2019. The largest settlement, Seaton Delaval, will have been close in 2019.
In the section imported from North Tyneside, there are a collection of former coal mining villages. Most are deprived and heavily Labour voting, with the exception of more competitive Wideopen which has seen major housing developments in recent decades and as a consequence has had a more resilient Conservative vote than settlements elsewhere in the North Tyneside section. In the south-centre of the constituency, we find the communities of Camperdown, a former mining village, and Killingworth - which like Cramlington achieves recognition in a constituency title for the first time. Apart from Killingworth Village, it mainly consists of largely post-war developments which include both council housing and middle class housing estates. Originally a 'New Town' type development known originally as Killingworth Township and featuring some very distinctive (to put it one way) architecture such as the notorious Towers (demolished in 1987), it looks more conventionally low rise in the 21st century, and overall the Killingworth MSOAs sum to around 65% owner occupied and 20% social rented as far as housing tenure goes. While the Conservatives have been competitive in the more middle class parts in the past, Labour are currently well ahead both locally and nationally here now.
A survey of the most recent local elections within the new Cramlington & Killingworth constituency features an interesting divergence, as in the Northumberland unitary authority section these took place in May 2021, but within the North Tyneside and Newcastle metropolitan boroughs in May 2023 - which was a much poorer year for the Conservatives and correspondingly better for Labour. There are 9 electoral divisions in the former, six of them in Cramlington. Of these five were won by Tories in 2021, and the remaining one, East, by an Independent. The Conservative share in their five ranged from 59% in Eastfield to 79% in their North stronghold. These shares are probably fair reflections of what would have happened in the December 2019 general election. In the other three Northumberland divisions, Labour did win Holywell (which actually includes half of Seaton Delaval such as the Seaton Terrace and Bates Cottages areas) in 2021. But the Tories took Seghill with Seaton Delaval 55%-45% in a straight fight - and also squeaked home in Hartley (which also includes the unusual village of Seaton Sluice, one of the ten chosen by the archaeologist Ben Robinson for the 2023 series of Villages by the Sea, by just one vote.
Then in May 2023, by a stark contrast Labour won all four wards of North Tyneside included, and by consistent margins: 59% to 22% for the Tories in Camperdown, 60%-28% in Killingworth, 63%-17% in Valley (the ward taken from Tynemouth, which includes Shiremoor, Backworth and Northumberland Park) and 58%-25% in Weetslade (Wideopen, Seaton Burn, Dudley). Finally, Cramlington and Killingworth includes three polling districts (FO1-3) of Newcastle’s Castle ward, 3,190 voters in the Commission’s report. These cover the rest of the built up area of Wideopen including the once industrial but now partly gentrified Brunswick Village and Hazlerigg, and the separate village of Dinnington to the west, towards Ponteland in the Hexham seat. These have always been rather odd inclusions within the city Boundaries. We cannot break down the 2023 council ward result in Castle, but the Liberal Democrats won it, as they have done all but one year since 1982, with Labour 6% behind on this occasion - so it isn’t the best guide to parliamentary outcomes anyway.
The better Labour showing in the North Tyneside section is not just a function of 2023 being a better year than 2021. They have won all of these four wards every year since 2011, and in Camperdown’s case every year since the creation of the North Tyneside borough in 1973. Cramlington, on the other hand, has often elected Conservatives - and its demographics in the 2021 census stand out too. 54.3% of households in Cramlington North & East MSOA are not deprived in any dimension, and over 78% are owner occupied, including almost the entirety of Cramlington North electoral division.
Cramlington was undoubtedly the part of the Blyth Valley constituency that enabled it to deliver the first gain of the night to Boris Johnson’s Conservatives - a shock to many, including fairly obviously the Labour candidate. The voters in Killingworth, Camperdown and Weetslade who go to the new Cramlington & Killingworth seat are outnumbered by voters from Blyth Valley, but they are nevertheless able to convert this into a notional Labour seat, with a theoretical majority of a little over 2,000 in December 2019. The Tories do not look at present like making a fresh gain in this part of the North East in 2024, but should the wheel of political fortune turn again at some point, as must be likely, Cramlington & Killingworth may be regarded as a potential marginal.
2021 Census
Age 65+ 21.5% 186/575
Owner occupied 68.1% 228/575
Private rented 12.0% 553/575
Social rented 19.9% 148/575
White 96.4% 108/575
Black 0.4% 472/575
Asian 1.7% 422/575
Managerial & professional 32.6% 289/575
Routine & Semi-routine 24.8% 249/575
Degree level 29.0% 374/575
No qualifications 17.4% 310/575
Students 4.8% 427/575
General Election 2019: Blyth Valley
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Ian Levy 17,440 42.7 +5.8
Labour Co-op Susan Dungworth 16,728 40.9 –15.0
Brexit Party Mark Peart 3,394 8.3 New
Liberal Democrats Thom Chapman 2,151 5.3 +0.7
Green Dawn Furness 1,146 2.8 +0.6
C Majority 712 1.8 N/A
Turnout 40,859 64.6 –2.4
Conservative gain from Labour
Swing +10.4 C from Lab
Boundary Changes
Cramlington and Killingworth consists of
55.3% of Blyth Valley
31.1% of North Tyneside
12.6% of Tynemouth
4.6% of Newcastle-upon-Tyne North
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-east/North%20East_188_Cramlington%20and%20Killingworth_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries - Rallings & Thrasher
Ostensibly Blyth Valley is abolished in the boundary changes, but the majority of the seat (less Blyth itself) forms the largest element (36k voters) in the new Cramlington & Killingworth. There it is joined by almost as many voters from North Tyneside borough (25k from the North Tyneside constituency and 10k from Tynemouth) and another 3k from part of the Castle ward of Newcastle. The Conservatives will have been ahead in the Blyth Valley section of the seat but this will have been outvoted fairly comfortably by the North Tyneside section so it is the Conservatives who technically lose out from the boundary changes here - though as they were unlikely to hold Blyth Valley at the next election, the effect then is likely to be one less Labour seat
The constituency includes the town of Cramlington. Originally an area of coal mining like the other parts of the constituency, the town was chosen as a post-war New Town. This has led to significant housing development, much of it decidedly middle class in character. The town is the most middle class area of the constituency and also has commuter links with Newcastle. Cramlington almost certainly voted Conservative in 2017 and will have done so by a large margin in 2019. The town is trending the fastest towards the Conservatives of anywhere in the constituency. The Conservative vote is strongest in the owner-occupier housing estates in the north of the town, with absolutely towering margins in the Northburn area. Labour are strongest in the more working class area of Mayfield, along with the socially mixed Southfield estate. Even here, it will have been competitive in 2019.
The next section of the constituency is the Seaton Valley. A collection of somewhat more rural former coal mining villages, this area will have been fairly representative of the constituency as a whole, if a bit more Labour leaning. Seaton Sluice is the most Labour leaning settlement while on the opposite end Holywell will have been close in 2017 and comfortably Conservative in 2019. The largest settlement, Seaton Delaval, will have been close in 2019.
In the section imported from North Tyneside, there are a collection of former coal mining villages. Most are deprived and heavily Labour voting, with the exception of more competitive Wideopen which has seen major housing developments in recent decades and as a consequence has had a more resilient Conservative vote than settlements elsewhere in the North Tyneside section. In the south-centre of the constituency, we find the communities of Camperdown, a former mining village, and Killingworth - which like Cramlington achieves recognition in a constituency title for the first time. Apart from Killingworth Village, it mainly consists of largely post-war developments which include both council housing and middle class housing estates. Originally a 'New Town' type development known originally as Killingworth Township and featuring some very distinctive (to put it one way) architecture such as the notorious Towers (demolished in 1987), it looks more conventionally low rise in the 21st century, and overall the Killingworth MSOAs sum to around 65% owner occupied and 20% social rented as far as housing tenure goes. While the Conservatives have been competitive in the more middle class parts in the past, Labour are currently well ahead both locally and nationally here now.
A survey of the most recent local elections within the new Cramlington & Killingworth constituency features an interesting divergence, as in the Northumberland unitary authority section these took place in May 2021, but within the North Tyneside and Newcastle metropolitan boroughs in May 2023 - which was a much poorer year for the Conservatives and correspondingly better for Labour. There are 9 electoral divisions in the former, six of them in Cramlington. Of these five were won by Tories in 2021, and the remaining one, East, by an Independent. The Conservative share in their five ranged from 59% in Eastfield to 79% in their North stronghold. These shares are probably fair reflections of what would have happened in the December 2019 general election. In the other three Northumberland divisions, Labour did win Holywell (which actually includes half of Seaton Delaval such as the Seaton Terrace and Bates Cottages areas) in 2021. But the Tories took Seghill with Seaton Delaval 55%-45% in a straight fight - and also squeaked home in Hartley (which also includes the unusual village of Seaton Sluice, one of the ten chosen by the archaeologist Ben Robinson for the 2023 series of Villages by the Sea, by just one vote.
Then in May 2023, by a stark contrast Labour won all four wards of North Tyneside included, and by consistent margins: 59% to 22% for the Tories in Camperdown, 60%-28% in Killingworth, 63%-17% in Valley (the ward taken from Tynemouth, which includes Shiremoor, Backworth and Northumberland Park) and 58%-25% in Weetslade (Wideopen, Seaton Burn, Dudley). Finally, Cramlington and Killingworth includes three polling districts (FO1-3) of Newcastle’s Castle ward, 3,190 voters in the Commission’s report. These cover the rest of the built up area of Wideopen including the once industrial but now partly gentrified Brunswick Village and Hazlerigg, and the separate village of Dinnington to the west, towards Ponteland in the Hexham seat. These have always been rather odd inclusions within the city Boundaries. We cannot break down the 2023 council ward result in Castle, but the Liberal Democrats won it, as they have done all but one year since 1982, with Labour 6% behind on this occasion - so it isn’t the best guide to parliamentary outcomes anyway.
The better Labour showing in the North Tyneside section is not just a function of 2023 being a better year than 2021. They have won all of these four wards every year since 2011, and in Camperdown’s case every year since the creation of the North Tyneside borough in 1973. Cramlington, on the other hand, has often elected Conservatives - and its demographics in the 2021 census stand out too. 54.3% of households in Cramlington North & East MSOA are not deprived in any dimension, and over 78% are owner occupied, including almost the entirety of Cramlington North electoral division.
Cramlington was undoubtedly the part of the Blyth Valley constituency that enabled it to deliver the first gain of the night to Boris Johnson’s Conservatives - a shock to many, including fairly obviously the Labour candidate. The voters in Killingworth, Camperdown and Weetslade who go to the new Cramlington & Killingworth seat are outnumbered by voters from Blyth Valley, but they are nevertheless able to convert this into a notional Labour seat, with a theoretical majority of a little over 2,000 in December 2019. The Tories do not look at present like making a fresh gain in this part of the North East in 2024, but should the wheel of political fortune turn again at some point, as must be likely, Cramlington & Killingworth may be regarded as a potential marginal.
2021 Census
Age 65+ 21.5% 186/575
Owner occupied 68.1% 228/575
Private rented 12.0% 553/575
Social rented 19.9% 148/575
White 96.4% 108/575
Black 0.4% 472/575
Asian 1.7% 422/575
Managerial & professional 32.6% 289/575
Routine & Semi-routine 24.8% 249/575
Degree level 29.0% 374/575
No qualifications 17.4% 310/575
Students 4.8% 427/575
General Election 2019: Blyth Valley
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Ian Levy 17,440 42.7 +5.8
Labour Co-op Susan Dungworth 16,728 40.9 –15.0
Brexit Party Mark Peart 3,394 8.3 New
Liberal Democrats Thom Chapman 2,151 5.3 +0.7
Green Dawn Furness 1,146 2.8 +0.6
C Majority 712 1.8 N/A
Turnout 40,859 64.6 –2.4
Conservative gain from Labour
Swing +10.4 C from Lab
Boundary Changes
Cramlington and Killingworth consists of
55.3% of Blyth Valley
31.1% of North Tyneside
12.6% of Tynemouth
4.6% of Newcastle-upon-Tyne North
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-east/North%20East_188_Cramlington%20and%20Killingworth_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries - Rallings & Thrasher
| Lab | 21331 | 44.4% |
| Con | 19174 | 39.9% |
| BxP | 3855 | 8.0% |
| LD | 2520 | 5.2% |
| Grn | 1192 | 2.5% |
| Majority | 2157 | 4.5% |
