Post by Robert Waller on Dec 30, 2023 21:49:02 GMT
This is based on a profile by jamie, with updates by myself, and some of the comments on boundary changes by Pete Whitehead
Tynemouth constituency covers a heavily suburbanised area on the north eastern edge of Tyneside. The constituency ranges from seaside towns like Tynemouth and Whitley Bay, to the industrial hub of North Shields, to a collection of former coal mining villages. Much of the traditional industry situated in the constituency is gone (tourism, fishing, coal mining etc), and the towns now largely function as commuter belt for Newcastle upon Tyne. The parliamentary seat is entirely contained within the Metropolitan Borough of North Tyneside. Tynemouth is currently a safe Labour seat and was won by 9% even in 2019. Despite this, it has historically been a Conservative leaning seat, rather unusual for the North East. The drift of middle class voters on the coast towards Labour, combined with boundary changes to include more ex coal mining communities, has significantly helped Labour here.
Further boundary changes, recommended by the Boundary Commission that finally reported in June 2023, removed almost 10,000 voters from the safe Labour Valley ward, containing a number of ex coal mining communities including Shiremoor and Backworth, which was moved to the new Cramlington & Killingworth constituency. In partial exchange added in were around 5,000 in part of Riverside (western North Shields, Howdon, Willington Quay), which was previously in the abolished North Tyneside seat. Riverside is equally strong for Labour but as there are fewer voters this slightly reduced the notional Labour majority. Overall, though, the changes slightly reduced the proportion of owner occupiers and increased that of both social and private renters, and marginally reduced the regionally high level of professional and managerial workers and those with educational degrees.
Beginning in the north west of the Tynemouth division, we find some ex-mining villages like Murton and New York. Retaining significant deprivation since the closure of the mines, these communities have usually produced hefty Labour majorities. Towards the river Tyne is the large town of North Shields, now entirely included in this constituency. A town of significant contrasts, its north western quadrant of Chirton and the town centre are the poorest parts of the constituency and vote strongly Labour. Chirton MSOA still had 40% social rented housing at the time of the 2021 census, though this is exceeded in the areas added in the boundary changes – 42% in Howdon and 40.5% in Percy Main, west North Shields. Labour polled 57% in Riverside ward and 59% in Chirton in the 2023 North Tyneside elections. Conversely, the Preston area due north of North Shields centre is much more middle class, though only Preston Grange likely votes Conservative these days in general elections.
Adjacent to North Shields is Tynemouth. Tynemouth retains a significant tourism industry thanks to its beautiful seafront, particularly Long Sands beach. A little more deprived than its reputation would suggest, Tynemouth nonetheless is one of the more affluent parts of the constituency (Tynemouth Priory MSOA, which covers the heart of the town, has 46% in professional and managerial occupations) and is quite evenly matched between Labour and the Conservatives. Heading north, we find the Cullercoats and Marden areas. Both largely middle class, Cullercoats was historically dependent on fishing and tourism while Marden was only built in the 2nd half of the 20th century. Both are competitive like Tynemouth.
Finally, we reach the Whitley Bay area. Whitley Bay was historically a major seaside resort like Tynemouth, but its decline has left parts looking much more like the many ‘left behind’ seaside resorts across the UK than the rest of the coastal communities in this constituency. The core Whitley Bay area is located on the seafront and includes beaches and the associated tourism attractions. Owing to their noticeable deprivation, Labour comfortably poll ahead here. Further inland is the Monkseaton area of the town. Subsumed into the town over the past couple of centuries, Monkseaton has historically had little industry of its own. The southern part of Monkseaton has more deprivation (47.6% of households had some dimension of deprivation in 2021) and doesn’t vote too dissimilar to core Whitley Bay. The central and particularly northern parts are almost entirely middle class (and less than 40% of households recorded any dimension of deprivation), and are surprisingly politically competitive these days. In contrast, the similarly middle class estates to the north of Monkseaton/core Whitley Bay vote more comfortably for the Conservatives, though even here they have a much smaller lead than would have been achieved decades ago.
In the most recent North Tyneside council elections in May 2024, Labour won all the wards within the new boundaries of the Tynemouth seat with just four exceptions: St Mary’s is one, though here the representation was split three ways, in an all-out contest on revised boward boundaries, between Conservative, Labour and Independent. St Mary's is the northernmost ward in the coastal area, covering Whitley Sands and the new private estates inland north of the A1148 Monkseaton Drive. These areas record the least deprivation anywhere in the constituency, 37% in Whitley Sands and 39% in Whitley Bay North. The other Tory councillors returned in 2024 were in Tynemouth ward itself (split one Tory at the head of the poll and two Labour), and all three in New York & Murton ward, which also includes Billy Mill and Middle Engine Lane. The first two have seen a long term Conservative preponderance, but they only ever took Collingwood ward, the predecessor of New York & Murton in 2004-08 and 2022-23. Finally, in May 2024 the Conservatives took all three seats in the new Preston & Preston Grange ward in the more affluent part of North Shields. Other parties than Labour and Conservative have almost no tradition of success within the Tynemouth part of North Tyneside.
Overall, Tynemouth constituency is safely Labour and should continue being so in the foreseeable future. Labour are comfortably ahead in the former coal mining villages and North Shields as they traditionally have been. Moreover, the movement of the predominantly middle class coastal communities from Conservative to competitive (if not Labour leaning) has made it difficult for the Conservatives to compete in the constituency as a whole come general elections - even when they are winning them, as in 2019.
In July 2024, when they were very much not winning the general election, the Conservative share more than halved, slumping by 21.5% to less than one fifth of the total. Although Reform, who took a strung third place, advanced by more than Labour did, Sir Alan Campbell's numerical majority more than trebled to over 15,000. This is the largest Labour lead ever here, including in 1997, and given that the turnout was 77% then but only 66% in 2024, underlines the long-term secular trend in the Tynemouth constituency.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 22.4% 154/575
Owner occupied 67.2% 255/575
Private rented 16.3% 367/575
Social rented 16.5% 230/575
White 95.1% 180/575
Black 0.5% 453/575
Asian 2.4% 364/575
Managerial & professional 38.2% 147/575
Routine & Semi-routine 21.4% 374/575
Degree level 37.5% 150/575
No qualifications 15.7% 396/575
Students 5.2% 362/575
General Election 2024: Tynemouth
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Alan Campbell 24,491 50.6 +3.9
Conservative Lewis Bartoli 9,036 18.7 −21.5
Reform UK Rosalyn Elliot 7,392 15.3 +11.4
Green Chloe-Louise Fawcett-Reilly 3,592 7.4 +5.1
Liberal Democrats John Appleby 2,709 5.6 −1.1
Independent Mustaque Rahman 531 1.1 N/A
Party of Women Kelly Dougall 286 0.6 N/A
Independent Christopher Greener 273 0.6 N/A
Heritage Adam Thewlis 108 0.2 N/A
Lab Majority 15,455 31.9 +23.3
Electorate 73,194
Turnout 48,418 65.9 −8.0
Labour hold
Swing 12.7 C to Lab
General Election 2019: Tynemouth
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Alan Campbell 26,928 48.0 -9.0
Conservative Lewis Bartoli 22,071 39.4 +2.9
Liberal Democrats John Appleby 3,791 6.8 +3.0
Brexit Party Ed Punchard 1,963 3.5 N/A
Green Julia Erskine 1,281 2.3 +1.2
Lab Majority 4,857 8.7 -12.8
2019 electorate 77,261
Turnout 56,034 72.5 -1.0
Labour hold
Swing 5.9 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Tynemouth consists of
87.4% of Tynemouth
6.9% of North Tyneside
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-east/North%20East_209_Tynemouth_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings /Thrasher)
Tynemouth constituency covers a heavily suburbanised area on the north eastern edge of Tyneside. The constituency ranges from seaside towns like Tynemouth and Whitley Bay, to the industrial hub of North Shields, to a collection of former coal mining villages. Much of the traditional industry situated in the constituency is gone (tourism, fishing, coal mining etc), and the towns now largely function as commuter belt for Newcastle upon Tyne. The parliamentary seat is entirely contained within the Metropolitan Borough of North Tyneside. Tynemouth is currently a safe Labour seat and was won by 9% even in 2019. Despite this, it has historically been a Conservative leaning seat, rather unusual for the North East. The drift of middle class voters on the coast towards Labour, combined with boundary changes to include more ex coal mining communities, has significantly helped Labour here.
Further boundary changes, recommended by the Boundary Commission that finally reported in June 2023, removed almost 10,000 voters from the safe Labour Valley ward, containing a number of ex coal mining communities including Shiremoor and Backworth, which was moved to the new Cramlington & Killingworth constituency. In partial exchange added in were around 5,000 in part of Riverside (western North Shields, Howdon, Willington Quay), which was previously in the abolished North Tyneside seat. Riverside is equally strong for Labour but as there are fewer voters this slightly reduced the notional Labour majority. Overall, though, the changes slightly reduced the proportion of owner occupiers and increased that of both social and private renters, and marginally reduced the regionally high level of professional and managerial workers and those with educational degrees.
Beginning in the north west of the Tynemouth division, we find some ex-mining villages like Murton and New York. Retaining significant deprivation since the closure of the mines, these communities have usually produced hefty Labour majorities. Towards the river Tyne is the large town of North Shields, now entirely included in this constituency. A town of significant contrasts, its north western quadrant of Chirton and the town centre are the poorest parts of the constituency and vote strongly Labour. Chirton MSOA still had 40% social rented housing at the time of the 2021 census, though this is exceeded in the areas added in the boundary changes – 42% in Howdon and 40.5% in Percy Main, west North Shields. Labour polled 57% in Riverside ward and 59% in Chirton in the 2023 North Tyneside elections. Conversely, the Preston area due north of North Shields centre is much more middle class, though only Preston Grange likely votes Conservative these days in general elections.
Adjacent to North Shields is Tynemouth. Tynemouth retains a significant tourism industry thanks to its beautiful seafront, particularly Long Sands beach. A little more deprived than its reputation would suggest, Tynemouth nonetheless is one of the more affluent parts of the constituency (Tynemouth Priory MSOA, which covers the heart of the town, has 46% in professional and managerial occupations) and is quite evenly matched between Labour and the Conservatives. Heading north, we find the Cullercoats and Marden areas. Both largely middle class, Cullercoats was historically dependent on fishing and tourism while Marden was only built in the 2nd half of the 20th century. Both are competitive like Tynemouth.
Finally, we reach the Whitley Bay area. Whitley Bay was historically a major seaside resort like Tynemouth, but its decline has left parts looking much more like the many ‘left behind’ seaside resorts across the UK than the rest of the coastal communities in this constituency. The core Whitley Bay area is located on the seafront and includes beaches and the associated tourism attractions. Owing to their noticeable deprivation, Labour comfortably poll ahead here. Further inland is the Monkseaton area of the town. Subsumed into the town over the past couple of centuries, Monkseaton has historically had little industry of its own. The southern part of Monkseaton has more deprivation (47.6% of households had some dimension of deprivation in 2021) and doesn’t vote too dissimilar to core Whitley Bay. The central and particularly northern parts are almost entirely middle class (and less than 40% of households recorded any dimension of deprivation), and are surprisingly politically competitive these days. In contrast, the similarly middle class estates to the north of Monkseaton/core Whitley Bay vote more comfortably for the Conservatives, though even here they have a much smaller lead than would have been achieved decades ago.
In the most recent North Tyneside council elections in May 2024, Labour won all the wards within the new boundaries of the Tynemouth seat with just four exceptions: St Mary’s is one, though here the representation was split three ways, in an all-out contest on revised boward boundaries, between Conservative, Labour and Independent. St Mary's is the northernmost ward in the coastal area, covering Whitley Sands and the new private estates inland north of the A1148 Monkseaton Drive. These areas record the least deprivation anywhere in the constituency, 37% in Whitley Sands and 39% in Whitley Bay North. The other Tory councillors returned in 2024 were in Tynemouth ward itself (split one Tory at the head of the poll and two Labour), and all three in New York & Murton ward, which also includes Billy Mill and Middle Engine Lane. The first two have seen a long term Conservative preponderance, but they only ever took Collingwood ward, the predecessor of New York & Murton in 2004-08 and 2022-23. Finally, in May 2024 the Conservatives took all three seats in the new Preston & Preston Grange ward in the more affluent part of North Shields. Other parties than Labour and Conservative have almost no tradition of success within the Tynemouth part of North Tyneside.
Overall, Tynemouth constituency is safely Labour and should continue being so in the foreseeable future. Labour are comfortably ahead in the former coal mining villages and North Shields as they traditionally have been. Moreover, the movement of the predominantly middle class coastal communities from Conservative to competitive (if not Labour leaning) has made it difficult for the Conservatives to compete in the constituency as a whole come general elections - even when they are winning them, as in 2019.
In July 2024, when they were very much not winning the general election, the Conservative share more than halved, slumping by 21.5% to less than one fifth of the total. Although Reform, who took a strung third place, advanced by more than Labour did, Sir Alan Campbell's numerical majority more than trebled to over 15,000. This is the largest Labour lead ever here, including in 1997, and given that the turnout was 77% then but only 66% in 2024, underlines the long-term secular trend in the Tynemouth constituency.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 22.4% 154/575
Owner occupied 67.2% 255/575
Private rented 16.3% 367/575
Social rented 16.5% 230/575
White 95.1% 180/575
Black 0.5% 453/575
Asian 2.4% 364/575
Managerial & professional 38.2% 147/575
Routine & Semi-routine 21.4% 374/575
Degree level 37.5% 150/575
No qualifications 15.7% 396/575
Students 5.2% 362/575
General Election 2024: Tynemouth
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Alan Campbell 24,491 50.6 +3.9
Conservative Lewis Bartoli 9,036 18.7 −21.5
Reform UK Rosalyn Elliot 7,392 15.3 +11.4
Green Chloe-Louise Fawcett-Reilly 3,592 7.4 +5.1
Liberal Democrats John Appleby 2,709 5.6 −1.1
Independent Mustaque Rahman 531 1.1 N/A
Party of Women Kelly Dougall 286 0.6 N/A
Independent Christopher Greener 273 0.6 N/A
Heritage Adam Thewlis 108 0.2 N/A
Lab Majority 15,455 31.9 +23.3
Electorate 73,194
Turnout 48,418 65.9 −8.0
Labour hold
Swing 12.7 C to Lab
General Election 2019: Tynemouth
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Alan Campbell 26,928 48.0 -9.0
Conservative Lewis Bartoli 22,071 39.4 +2.9
Liberal Democrats John Appleby 3,791 6.8 +3.0
Brexit Party Ed Punchard 1,963 3.5 N/A
Green Julia Erskine 1,281 2.3 +1.2
Lab Majority 4,857 8.7 -12.8
2019 electorate 77,261
Turnout 56,034 72.5 -1.0
Labour hold
Swing 5.9 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Tynemouth consists of
87.4% of Tynemouth
6.9% of North Tyneside
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-east/North%20East_209_Tynemouth_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings /Thrasher)
| Lab | 25208 | 46.7% |
| Con | 21696 | 40.2% |
| LD | 3622 | 6.7% |
| BxP | 2096 | 3.9% |
| Grn | 1318 | 2.% |
| Majority | 3512 | 6.5% |