Post by ntyuk1707 on Dec 30, 2023 19:16:10 GMT
Falkirk is a county constituency covering the town of Falkirk, its adjoining villages of the Falkirk Braes to the east, and the town of Denny and villages of Bonnybridge and Bankock to the west.
At the centre of the constituency is Falkirk, which is a medium-sized town with a population of 35,000 people. Falkirk houses around 40% of the total electorate of this constituency. The town became a major centre for iron-casting in the 18th Century, with Carron Iron Works being involved in the casting of the beams of James Watt's early steam engine in 1765. In 1790, the Forth & Clyde Canal opened which connects Falkirk to the Firth of Forth and Firth of Clyde, and by 1814 Carron Iron Works became the largest iron works in Europe, employing over 2,000 people. In 1822 the Union Canal opened, connecting the town to Edinburgh, followed by the development of the railway in the 1830s and 1840s. However since the 1970s, the town's dependency on iron-casting has ground to a halt, culminating in the closure of Carron Phoenix manufacturing plant in 2018.
Today, Falkirk houses two of Scotland's most iconic man-made landmarks. The Falkirk Wheel is the world's only rotating boat lift which allows vessels to sail through the sky to connect to the Union Canal from the Forth & Clyde Canal. It was opened in 2002 and today attracts over 500,000 visitors per year. In 2014, 'The Kelpies' opened to the public, which are two large horse-headed sculptures located at the north-eastern corner of the constituency beside the M9 which leads from Edinburgh past Falkirk and Stirling through to Dunblane. The scultpures attracted over 600,000 visitors and brought an estimated £84 million of spending into the region in 2021 according to Helix.
Falkirk is predominantly a working-class town with some bungalows located around Falkirk High and Newcarron, contrasted by high rates of deprivation in the ex-council estates of Hallglen, Camelon, Langlees, Woodburn, Tamfourhill and Middlefield. This corresponds with the politics of the town, as support for the SNP was weakest in the middle-class areas of Falkirk High (37%) and Newcarron (38%) at last year's council elections and strongest in Tamfourhill (50%), Langlees (52%), the town centre (52%), and Woodburn (53%). At the 2022 council election, the SNP were the largest party in all parts of the town and took 45% of the vote to 26% for Labour and 21% for the Conservatives, with the Conservatives performing best around Falkirk High and Labour performing best in former council estates to the north of the town. At the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, it is estimated that Falkirk rejected independence with a 53% No vote to 47% Yes vote.
Connecting to the east of Falkirk are the villages of the 'Falkirk Braes' which have a combined population of 32,000, making up 32% of the constituency's electorate. These villages mostly adjoin each other and effectively serve as suburbs to Falkirk. Heading east from Falkirk, the villages of Laurieston and Westquarter are predominantly made up of ex-council estates and Redding has mixture of former council estates and middle-class areas. South and east from here, the profile of the Braes becomes more affluent, with Polmont, Brightons, Reddingmuirhead, Wallacestone and Rumford being predominantly made-up of leafy suburban areas. To the south-east, Maddiston contains areas of high deprivation, and to the south-west, the independent former coal mining villages of Shieldhall, California and Avonbridge are more socially mixed, with Slamannan being more socially deprived.
The Falkirk Braes represent the weakest portion of this constituency for the SNP. At the 2022 local election, the SNP took 37% of the vote in wards covering the Braes compared to 25% for Labour and 23% for the Conservatives. Support for the SNP was weakest in the ex-coal mining villages of Slammannan (30%) and Shieldhall (33%) and in the suburban villages of Rumford (31%) and Brightons (33%). The SNP were strongest in working-class communities verging on to Falkirk including Westquarter (45%) and Laurieston North (42%) and in the ex-coal mining village of Avonbridge (45%). Support for the Conservatives and Labour was quite evenly spread across the Braes, leaving the SNP as the largest party in all polling districts. At the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, it is estimated that the Braes voted 58.5% No to independence, 41.5% Yes.
The western portion of the constituency includes the town of Denny, and villages of Bonnybridge and Bankock, located between Cumbernauld to the south and the city of Stirling to the north. This area covers the remaining 29% of electors in Falkirk constituency. Like the town of Falkirk, Denny was once home to several iron foundries as well as other heavy industry including brickworks, a coal mine and paper mills. Today, the town is dedicedly working-class with many ex-council houses in the centre of the town. On the western periphery of the town, the village of Stoneywood is more suburban in character, while to the north Dunipace has a mixture of former council housing and bungalows, similar to Head of Muir to the south.
Denny and its adjoining communities is a stronghold for the SNP. At the 2022 local council elections, Dunipace voted 49% SNP, 15% Labour, 15% Conservative, 2% Green. Northern Denny voted 51.5% SNP, 13% Labour, 13% Conservative, 2% Green. Western Stoneywood and Fankerton - effectively new build housing and a small hamlet made-up of ex-council housing - voted 57% SNP, 18% Labour, 13% Conservative, 4% Green.
Support for the SNP dips to 44% as you head south through southern Denny, Bankhead and into Banknock which is also predominantly made-up of former council estates as a former coal-mining village, however at the 2022 local elections the party still had more votes than both Labour and the Conservatives combined.
Bonnybridge's social profile is similar to that of Denny's, having a history of manufacturing including paper milling and sawmilling. At the 2022 local elections, Independent Billy Buchanan won 42% of the vote in the village, however transferring his vote to other candidates would give the SNP 50% of the vote to 26% for Labour and 20% for the Conservatives.
It is estimated that Bonnybridge rejected Scottish independence on 51% of the vote in 2014, while Denny & Banknock ward voted 53% Yes to independence.
At Westminster, Falkirk elected MPs belonging to the Labour Party from the 1935 general election through to 2015. The Scottish National Party emerged as a credible force in the area from 1971 when Robert Mcintyre, who was the SNP's first ever MP (elected in the 1945 Motherwell by-election), took 34.6% in the Stirling, Grangemouth & Falkirk by-election behind Labour's Harry Ewing on 46.5%. At the subsequent February 1974 general election, Clackmannanshire & Eastern Stirlingshire constituency covering the Falkirk Braes returned George Reid of the Scottish National Party as its Member of Parliament on 43.5% of the vote and a 3,610-vote majority while in Stirling, Grangemouth & Falkirk Labour's majority was cut to 3,799 votes by the SNP's Robert Mcintyre. In the October general election in the same year, George Reid's majority doubled to 7,341 while Robert Mcintyre came within 1,766 votes of Labour in Stirling, Grangemouth & Falkirk. The two constituencies reverted back to Labour in 1979, however George Reid lost his seat by only 918 votes in that election despite it being a dreadful night for the SNP across Scotland.
It was not until the 1992 general election that the SNP then re-emerged as the primary opposition party to Labour in Falkirk. At the 1999 Scottish Parliamentary election, Dennis Canavan, who served as the MP for Falkirk West from October 1974, stood as an independent candidate in the Falkirk West constituency having failed to be endorsed by national Labour leadership despite reports that 97% of local party members endorsed him as candidate. Mr Canavan won an impressive 53.5% vote share as an independent candidate and won a 12,192-vote majority ahead of his Labour rival. When he stood down at the 2007 Scottish election, the constituency fell to the SNP by 776 votes. In the corresponding 2007 local elections, the SNP polled ahead in the Falkirk North, Denny & Banknock and Bonnybridge & Larbert wards, which remain their strongest areas in the present Falkirk constituency. The SNP's 2011 landslide election saw Falkirk East fall to the SNP by 7,585 votes.
In 2014, despite the area's history of supporting the SNP in previous elections and being a fairly deprived and industrial constituency in the Central Belt of Scotland, Falkirk constituency rejected independence with a 53% No vote. Despite this, at the 2015 UK general election both Parliamentary constituencies covering the new Falkirk constituency voted SNP, with John McNally winning the Falkirk seat by nearly 20,000 votes for the party.
Boundary change here sees Falkirk lose Larbert and the Carse, Tryst & Kinnaird ward and gain Upper Braes ward - benefiting the Labour Party. John McNally's retirement in the constituency has seen a very bitter contest to replace him as the SNP candidate, being won by Toni Giugliano, who unsuccessfully stood for election to the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh Western in 2016 and Dumbarton in 2021. There alledged fears that SNP senior figures expect to lose the constituency (https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/scottish-news/11668168/snp-bosses-fear-lose-safest-seat-nightmare-poll/).
Opposition to the SNP has been fairly split in recent years between the Conservatives and Labour, and at the 2022 local elections the SNP polled ahead of all other parties in every single polling district in the constituency.
There is no question that this is one of the SNP's "safest" seats in Scotland, and on current polling figures they should expect to hold the seat with a modest majority, however this can no longer be assumed and Labour's chances here should not be written off.
2019 general election (old boundary)
- SNP 29,351 (52.5%)
- CON 14,403 (25.8%)
- LAB 6,243 (11.2%)
- LIB 3,990 (7.1%)
- GRN 1,885 (3.4%)
Notional 2016 EU membership referendum result (old boundary)
- 58% Remain
- 42% Leave
Notional 2014 independence referendum result
- 53% No
- 47% Yes
