Post by andrewp on Dec 30, 2023 14:50:08 GMT
This is based on original profiles by loderingo and Robert Waller and is updated and merged by me
The names of Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney would bring to mind to many people an image of the former coal mining valleys of South Wales. These 2 famous names are perhaps only behind Rhondda and Merthyr Tydfil amongst constituency names in conjuring an image of the valleys- former mining communities characterised by rows of terraced streets clinging to the sides of the valley and close knit communities of choirs, rugby and chapel going. They also bring to mind communities with economies struggling to adjust to the post mining landscape, of social and economic deprivation and a political association to the traditional party of the working classes.
Blaenau Gwent takes it name from a part of the County of Monmouth which was called Blaene Gwent i.e. the fore end of Gwent-land. Without the industrial revolution it is likely that Blaenau Gwent would look a lot like modern day Breconshire. Things started to change with the opening of the Ebbw Vale ironworks in 1778, followed by coal mines from the late 1700s onwards. The industrial revolution led to a huge growth in population with workers first coming from other parts of Wales and then from England.
The main settlements in Blaenau Gwent are Ebbw Vale, after which the constituency took its name until 1983, Tredeagar, Brynmawr and Abertillery- after which another parliamentary constituency was named until 1983. Ebbw Vale is a name with famous Labour connections as the constituency of Aneurin Bevan and then Michael Foot.
Blaenau Gwent has a small local unitary authority purely to itself but the electorate of the constituency was, like many welsh constituencies, small. It was as low as 50,000 here in 2019 so the seat couldn’t survive in its current form.
The solution is to look Westwards to the Rhymney Valley. The neighbouring Rhymney Valley was paired with Blaenau Gwent until 1983 but then has spent the last 40 years paired with Merthyr. About 11,500 electors from the valley including the communities of Rhymney and New Tredeagar are added to this constituency.
Finally about 8700 electors are added from further south in the Rhymney Valley in Bargoed and Aberbargoed. This makes the new constituency a sort of horseshoe shape with 2 distinct valleys.
Like many of the other Welsh valleys seats this area has seen a lot of struggle since the closure of the mines and the steelworks and it has a high level of unemployment and those on benefits. These are communities with long lasting problems. Overall the seat’s Census figures record very high figures for long term sick and disabled, no educational qualifications and very few upper level professional and managerial workers – even by the standards of most of the South Wales valleys. This is now a largely post-industrial economy. It is very white - 98% of people - placing the constituency as the 15th most white in England and Wales. It is a relatively low skilled area with 28.7% of adults having no formal qualifications, the 11th highest in England and Wales and just 20.9% of adults being educated to degree level, placing the constituency 561st out of 575 in England and Wales. That skills base leads to the constituency ranking 6th out of 575 for people working in routine/ semi routine jobs.
Like a lot of South Wales, local elections here are largely a contest between the Labour Party and various Independents and when last contested in 2022, the wards in this new constituency elected 32 Labour councillors and 11 Independents. Labour had no trouble at all in Rhymney but many of the Blaenau Gwent wards were split between Labour and Independent councillors.
Unlike some of the other valley seats Blaenau Gwent has been more willing to seek alternatives to official Labour. In 2005, there was a small political earthquake as Labour lost this seat to independent Peter Law on a 49% swing after a row over National Labour imposing an all women shortlist to replace the retiring MP. Law died the following year but Dai Davies, a close associate of Law, standing for the Blaenau Gwent People's voice ‘held’ the seat in the by-election before Labour retook the seat in 2010. Blaenau Gwent PV also held the assembly seat from 2006-2011. In the 2016 Assembly election Labour only held on by 650 votes ahead of Plaid.
At 62%, Blaenau Gwent had one of the highest Brexit votes in Wales, in Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney it was 58%.
In 2019 the Labour majority in Blaenau Gwent was 8600, and that in a seat with a low electorate - still healthy enough, but a far cry from the ‘ weighing the votes’ proportions achieved for most of the seats history. In 2019 Labour got 49% in Blaenau Gwent and 52% in Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney whilst the Conservatives polled about 20% in both seats. The area is still safe enough for Labour but the share of the vote that the party received has dropped from the 75% in Merthyr and 76% in Blaenau Gwent which Labour achieved in the Conservative landslide year of 1987. Some of the valley constituencies further south and east with closer links to Newport and Cardiff like Torfaen, Pontypridd and Islwyn could be described as not fully safe for Labour at the moment, but despite the drift away from Labour this seat further up the valleys is still utterly safe.
The names of Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney would bring to mind to many people an image of the former coal mining valleys of South Wales. These 2 famous names are perhaps only behind Rhondda and Merthyr Tydfil amongst constituency names in conjuring an image of the valleys- former mining communities characterised by rows of terraced streets clinging to the sides of the valley and close knit communities of choirs, rugby and chapel going. They also bring to mind communities with economies struggling to adjust to the post mining landscape, of social and economic deprivation and a political association to the traditional party of the working classes.
Blaenau Gwent takes it name from a part of the County of Monmouth which was called Blaene Gwent i.e. the fore end of Gwent-land. Without the industrial revolution it is likely that Blaenau Gwent would look a lot like modern day Breconshire. Things started to change with the opening of the Ebbw Vale ironworks in 1778, followed by coal mines from the late 1700s onwards. The industrial revolution led to a huge growth in population with workers first coming from other parts of Wales and then from England.
The main settlements in Blaenau Gwent are Ebbw Vale, after which the constituency took its name until 1983, Tredeagar, Brynmawr and Abertillery- after which another parliamentary constituency was named until 1983. Ebbw Vale is a name with famous Labour connections as the constituency of Aneurin Bevan and then Michael Foot.
Blaenau Gwent has a small local unitary authority purely to itself but the electorate of the constituency was, like many welsh constituencies, small. It was as low as 50,000 here in 2019 so the seat couldn’t survive in its current form.
The solution is to look Westwards to the Rhymney Valley. The neighbouring Rhymney Valley was paired with Blaenau Gwent until 1983 but then has spent the last 40 years paired with Merthyr. About 11,500 electors from the valley including the communities of Rhymney and New Tredeagar are added to this constituency.
Finally about 8700 electors are added from further south in the Rhymney Valley in Bargoed and Aberbargoed. This makes the new constituency a sort of horseshoe shape with 2 distinct valleys.
Like many of the other Welsh valleys seats this area has seen a lot of struggle since the closure of the mines and the steelworks and it has a high level of unemployment and those on benefits. These are communities with long lasting problems. Overall the seat’s Census figures record very high figures for long term sick and disabled, no educational qualifications and very few upper level professional and managerial workers – even by the standards of most of the South Wales valleys. This is now a largely post-industrial economy. It is very white - 98% of people - placing the constituency as the 15th most white in England and Wales. It is a relatively low skilled area with 28.7% of adults having no formal qualifications, the 11th highest in England and Wales and just 20.9% of adults being educated to degree level, placing the constituency 561st out of 575 in England and Wales. That skills base leads to the constituency ranking 6th out of 575 for people working in routine/ semi routine jobs.
Like a lot of South Wales, local elections here are largely a contest between the Labour Party and various Independents and when last contested in 2022, the wards in this new constituency elected 32 Labour councillors and 11 Independents. Labour had no trouble at all in Rhymney but many of the Blaenau Gwent wards were split between Labour and Independent councillors.
Unlike some of the other valley seats Blaenau Gwent has been more willing to seek alternatives to official Labour. In 2005, there was a small political earthquake as Labour lost this seat to independent Peter Law on a 49% swing after a row over National Labour imposing an all women shortlist to replace the retiring MP. Law died the following year but Dai Davies, a close associate of Law, standing for the Blaenau Gwent People's voice ‘held’ the seat in the by-election before Labour retook the seat in 2010. Blaenau Gwent PV also held the assembly seat from 2006-2011. In the 2016 Assembly election Labour only held on by 650 votes ahead of Plaid.
At 62%, Blaenau Gwent had one of the highest Brexit votes in Wales, in Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney it was 58%.
In 2019 the Labour majority in Blaenau Gwent was 8600, and that in a seat with a low electorate - still healthy enough, but a far cry from the ‘ weighing the votes’ proportions achieved for most of the seats history. In 2019 Labour got 49% in Blaenau Gwent and 52% in Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney whilst the Conservatives polled about 20% in both seats. The area is still safe enough for Labour but the share of the vote that the party received has dropped from the 75% in Merthyr and 76% in Blaenau Gwent which Labour achieved in the Conservative landslide year of 1987. Some of the valley constituencies further south and east with closer links to Newport and Cardiff like Torfaen, Pontypridd and Islwyn could be described as not fully safe for Labour at the moment, but despite the drift away from Labour this seat further up the valleys is still utterly safe.
