Post by Robert Waller on Dec 29, 2023 23:46:13 GMT
This is largely based on the very good previous profile by jamie, with Pete Whitehead on boundary changes, and some updates and additions by me.
Hexham constituency covers a large stretch of south western Northumberland and is one of the geographically largest constituencies in the UK. It also had one of the ten smallest electorates in England at the time of the 2019 general election. The constituency is centred on the market town of Hexham. It also includes numerous farming villages, former mining towns, and wealthy Newcastle upon Tyne commuter belt. Throughout the post-war period, Hexham has been held by the Conservatives. While not always with the largest of majorities, it was comfortably held by the Conservatives from 1945-1992. However, in the 1997 Labour landslide, the majority was cut to only 0.2%. Nonetheless, the majority grew from 2001 onwards and the Liberal Democrats took 2nd place in 2010. Labour retook 2nd place in 2015 and their vote rose by 10% in 2017, though the Conservative majority was still 20%. The Conservative majority rose by a modest 3% in the 2019 Conservative landslide. As a consequence, this is, on universal national swing, a seat which Labour would be expected to win if they achieved an overall majority.
In the boundary changes Hexham gains the large rural Longhorsley ward (currently divided between Berwick and Wansbeck) but more voters in the Callerton & Throckley ward in Newcastle, which also comprehends Newcastle Airport near Woolsington. The net effect is slightly to Labour's benefit, reducing the swing from 2019 they need to take the seat to about 10%.
Starting in the east, we find the town of Ponteland. Just outside Newcastle upon Tyne, and close to its airport, Ponteland has become a major commuter town and houses Tyneside’s wealthiest residents, especially in the Darras Hall estate which straddles Ponteland South and West divisions. This is also true to a large extent for the more rural areas surrounding Ponteland such as Stannington and Stamfordham. In the small area details of the 2021 census the professional and managerial occupation proportion in the Ponteland MSOA was 45%, and in the Darras Hall section it exceeded 60% in several OAs, pushing the overall figure for the MSOA of Darras Hall, Stamfordham & Heddon above 50%. Owing to this wealth, Ponteland has long been a Conservative bastion. The Conservative lead in council elections here, when the other parties even bother to contest seats in the area, is among the largest in the entire North East. In May 2021 the Tory shares were 68% in Ponteland Sout with Heddon, 70% in Ponteland East & Stannington, and 74% in both Ponteland North and West. While Labour is able to do well with middle class residents within Newcastle upon Tyne, this stops abruptly once you reach Ponteland. The Conservative lead in general election contests will have shrunk significantly here in 2017 and probably still more in 2019 owing to its strong remain vote, but Labour are unlikely to be remotely competitive here anytime soon.
Further west, the constituency takes in a large expanse of rural Northumberland. The constituency stretches all the way to Kielder Water at the Scottish border, but most of the population here, such as there is any, is found on the banks of the river North Tyne further away from the Scottish border. These communities include Bellingham at the northern end all the way down to Humshaugh just outside Hexham. The economy here has traditionally been dominated by agriculture, but tourism is also increasingly important. As would be expected from a farming area, the Conservatives poll strongly here and face little challenge to their dominance anytime soon.
Heading south, we find more rural communities situated along the river South Tyne and its tributaries. In the north are the more middle class and farming orientated communities. These areas vote comfortably Conservative nationally. There is also parts of Hadrian’s Wall situated around here which has helped encourage more tourism in the area. In sharp contrast is the town of Haltwhistle. A former coal mining town, Haltwhistle is arguably the most industrial area of the constituency, at least historically, and has significant deprivation: in its central OAs between 65% and 70% exhibited some dimension if deprivation in the 2021 census. As a consequence, it is far more Labour voting than nearby communities and will have voted for them in 2017 and perhaps even 2019. Further south, we find a collection of small former mining communities such as Allendale. While the mines, mostly lead mines, largely closed down by the start of the 20th century, these areas suffer from relatively high deprivation and as a consequence have a surprisingly high minority Labour vote for what is a very rural and isolated area. Nonetheless, they still vote comfortably Conservative, albeit not as heavily as middle class villages to the east such as Slaley.
We now reach the centre of the constituency which is anchored by Hexham itself. Hexham is a market town and also a major manufacturer of leather products. While the town gives its name to the constituency, it is now of similar size to Ponteland. The town is the most socially mixed settlement in the constituency. Western Hexham as well as parts of eastern Hexham are very middle class. Conversely, part of eastern Hexham as well as the town centre are more deprived, especially in the social housing estate around White Cross and Maiden’s Walk. This is largely reflected in voting patterns with the Conservatives well ahead in western Hexham, comfortably ahead in eastern Hexham, but Labour much more competitive in the town centre. Immediately adjacent to Hexham is Acomb. A former coal mining village, it is much more Labour inclined than Hexham itself and will have voted comfortably Labour in 2017 and probably 2019.
Finally, the constituency takes in a collection of villages and small towns situated between Hexham and Tyneside. In the west is the large village of Corbridge as well as Riding Mill and Stocksfield. These villages have long been middle class commuter belt for Tyneside and are comfortably, though not overwhelmingly, Conservative voting. In contrast, the communities east of Stocksfield are much more Labour inclined. These communities were traditionally much more reliant on coal mining and as a consequence have more in common both politically and demographically with neighbouring Blaydon constituency than they do with the rest of Hexham constituency. Prudhoe is the largest town and voted comfortably Labour in 2017, although it will have been closer in 2019. Labour is strongest on the West Wylam estate while weaker in some of the more recent housing developments. Strong Labour support can also be found in Ovington and to a lesser extent Mickley. Sharp contrast is provided by the affluent commuter villages of Wylam and Heddon. While both have much more distant coal mining history than Prudhoe, Wylam still appears to lean Labour while Heddon is much more Conservative inclined.
In the most recent local elections for Northumberland unitary authority, which took place in May 2021 before the long and deep slump in Conservative fortunes, Labour only in two of the electoral divisions within the new lines of the Hexham constituency: Prudhoe North and the adjoining Bywell (which includes Wyland and a number of more rural villages including Newton, Horsley, Ovingham and Ovington). The Liberal Democrats took one division, Haydon & Hadrian – named after the Wall, of course, but without any major camps or forts within its particular bounds. Immediately to its north, the Greens achieved their sole triumph, in Humshaugh division. Independents won Hexham West and Stocksfield, which is south west of Prudhoe. But the Conservatives won all the others, from the rugged Haltwhistle in the far (and high, and rather wild) west, through Hexham East and Central and Corbridge, to the rural Bellingham at the north end of the seat and Ponteland at its very wealthy end – and also Longhorsley, the arrival from Berwick-upon-Tweed. Labour may well have done better in the Northumberland section if there had been more recent elections, and they did win the Newcastle ward of Callerton & Throckley in May 2023, by over two to one from an Independent in second place – this was actually a gain, as a different Indy had own that ward in 2019 – one of only two occasions Labour haven’t won there in the past 50 years.
Overall, Hexham constituency has long been Conservative held (since 1924) but not necessarily with the largest of vote shares. In recent years, the Labour Party have established a clear but distant 2nd place. The Conservatives are strongest in wealthy commuter belt such as Ponteland and Corbridge as well as reasonably well-off farming villages in the northern part of the constituency. Conversely, Labour are stronger in former mining areas such as Prudhoe and Haltwhistle, as well as parts of Hexham. Even though Hexham has a large Conservative majority, this is on paper a seat Labour need to win in order to achieve an overall majority.
Despite this, it is difficult to envisage Labour actually winning the constituency. Even in 1997, the Tories held on, if only by 222 votes. Hexham is naturally a Conservative orientated area thanks to its wealth and largely rural nature, and Labour already significantly over-perform the demographics. This is a seat which in 2021 was nearly 97% White, over 70% owner occupied, and well into the oldest decile in terms of age profile, with few full time students. The figures are made measurably but only slightly more working class by the minor boundary changes. It remains to be seen how much closer Labour can come, even in a much better national environment. Can Keir Starmer’s party achieve a feat that eluded Tony Blair at the height of his popularity?
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 27.1% 35/575
Owner occupied 70.4% 169/575
Private rented 15.5% 415/575
Social rented 14.1% 334/575
White 96.7% 95/575
Black 0.2% 530/575
Asian 1.8% 416/575
Managerial & professional 38.9% 133/575
Routine & Semi-routine 19.9% 423/575
Degree level 39.2% 127/575
No qualifications 14.8% 434/575
Students 4.7% 461/575
General Election 2019: Hexham
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Guy Opperman 25,152 54.5 +0.4
Labour Penny Grennan 14,603 31.6 -2.5
Liberal Democrats Stephen Howse 4,672 10.1 +3.0
Green Nick Morphet 1,723 3.7 +1.0
C Majority 10,549 22.9 +2.9
2019 electorate 61,324
Turnout 46,150 75.3 +0.2
Conservative hold
Swing 1.5 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Hexham consists of
100% of Hexham
10.2% of Newcastle upon Tyne North
5.0% of Berwick-upon-Tweed
2.1% of Wansbeck
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-east/North%20East_193_Hexham_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings & Thrasher)
Hexham constituency covers a large stretch of south western Northumberland and is one of the geographically largest constituencies in the UK. It also had one of the ten smallest electorates in England at the time of the 2019 general election. The constituency is centred on the market town of Hexham. It also includes numerous farming villages, former mining towns, and wealthy Newcastle upon Tyne commuter belt. Throughout the post-war period, Hexham has been held by the Conservatives. While not always with the largest of majorities, it was comfortably held by the Conservatives from 1945-1992. However, in the 1997 Labour landslide, the majority was cut to only 0.2%. Nonetheless, the majority grew from 2001 onwards and the Liberal Democrats took 2nd place in 2010. Labour retook 2nd place in 2015 and their vote rose by 10% in 2017, though the Conservative majority was still 20%. The Conservative majority rose by a modest 3% in the 2019 Conservative landslide. As a consequence, this is, on universal national swing, a seat which Labour would be expected to win if they achieved an overall majority.
In the boundary changes Hexham gains the large rural Longhorsley ward (currently divided between Berwick and Wansbeck) but more voters in the Callerton & Throckley ward in Newcastle, which also comprehends Newcastle Airport near Woolsington. The net effect is slightly to Labour's benefit, reducing the swing from 2019 they need to take the seat to about 10%.
Starting in the east, we find the town of Ponteland. Just outside Newcastle upon Tyne, and close to its airport, Ponteland has become a major commuter town and houses Tyneside’s wealthiest residents, especially in the Darras Hall estate which straddles Ponteland South and West divisions. This is also true to a large extent for the more rural areas surrounding Ponteland such as Stannington and Stamfordham. In the small area details of the 2021 census the professional and managerial occupation proportion in the Ponteland MSOA was 45%, and in the Darras Hall section it exceeded 60% in several OAs, pushing the overall figure for the MSOA of Darras Hall, Stamfordham & Heddon above 50%. Owing to this wealth, Ponteland has long been a Conservative bastion. The Conservative lead in council elections here, when the other parties even bother to contest seats in the area, is among the largest in the entire North East. In May 2021 the Tory shares were 68% in Ponteland Sout with Heddon, 70% in Ponteland East & Stannington, and 74% in both Ponteland North and West. While Labour is able to do well with middle class residents within Newcastle upon Tyne, this stops abruptly once you reach Ponteland. The Conservative lead in general election contests will have shrunk significantly here in 2017 and probably still more in 2019 owing to its strong remain vote, but Labour are unlikely to be remotely competitive here anytime soon.
Further west, the constituency takes in a large expanse of rural Northumberland. The constituency stretches all the way to Kielder Water at the Scottish border, but most of the population here, such as there is any, is found on the banks of the river North Tyne further away from the Scottish border. These communities include Bellingham at the northern end all the way down to Humshaugh just outside Hexham. The economy here has traditionally been dominated by agriculture, but tourism is also increasingly important. As would be expected from a farming area, the Conservatives poll strongly here and face little challenge to their dominance anytime soon.
Heading south, we find more rural communities situated along the river South Tyne and its tributaries. In the north are the more middle class and farming orientated communities. These areas vote comfortably Conservative nationally. There is also parts of Hadrian’s Wall situated around here which has helped encourage more tourism in the area. In sharp contrast is the town of Haltwhistle. A former coal mining town, Haltwhistle is arguably the most industrial area of the constituency, at least historically, and has significant deprivation: in its central OAs between 65% and 70% exhibited some dimension if deprivation in the 2021 census. As a consequence, it is far more Labour voting than nearby communities and will have voted for them in 2017 and perhaps even 2019. Further south, we find a collection of small former mining communities such as Allendale. While the mines, mostly lead mines, largely closed down by the start of the 20th century, these areas suffer from relatively high deprivation and as a consequence have a surprisingly high minority Labour vote for what is a very rural and isolated area. Nonetheless, they still vote comfortably Conservative, albeit not as heavily as middle class villages to the east such as Slaley.
We now reach the centre of the constituency which is anchored by Hexham itself. Hexham is a market town and also a major manufacturer of leather products. While the town gives its name to the constituency, it is now of similar size to Ponteland. The town is the most socially mixed settlement in the constituency. Western Hexham as well as parts of eastern Hexham are very middle class. Conversely, part of eastern Hexham as well as the town centre are more deprived, especially in the social housing estate around White Cross and Maiden’s Walk. This is largely reflected in voting patterns with the Conservatives well ahead in western Hexham, comfortably ahead in eastern Hexham, but Labour much more competitive in the town centre. Immediately adjacent to Hexham is Acomb. A former coal mining village, it is much more Labour inclined than Hexham itself and will have voted comfortably Labour in 2017 and probably 2019.
Finally, the constituency takes in a collection of villages and small towns situated between Hexham and Tyneside. In the west is the large village of Corbridge as well as Riding Mill and Stocksfield. These villages have long been middle class commuter belt for Tyneside and are comfortably, though not overwhelmingly, Conservative voting. In contrast, the communities east of Stocksfield are much more Labour inclined. These communities were traditionally much more reliant on coal mining and as a consequence have more in common both politically and demographically with neighbouring Blaydon constituency than they do with the rest of Hexham constituency. Prudhoe is the largest town and voted comfortably Labour in 2017, although it will have been closer in 2019. Labour is strongest on the West Wylam estate while weaker in some of the more recent housing developments. Strong Labour support can also be found in Ovington and to a lesser extent Mickley. Sharp contrast is provided by the affluent commuter villages of Wylam and Heddon. While both have much more distant coal mining history than Prudhoe, Wylam still appears to lean Labour while Heddon is much more Conservative inclined.
In the most recent local elections for Northumberland unitary authority, which took place in May 2021 before the long and deep slump in Conservative fortunes, Labour only in two of the electoral divisions within the new lines of the Hexham constituency: Prudhoe North and the adjoining Bywell (which includes Wyland and a number of more rural villages including Newton, Horsley, Ovingham and Ovington). The Liberal Democrats took one division, Haydon & Hadrian – named after the Wall, of course, but without any major camps or forts within its particular bounds. Immediately to its north, the Greens achieved their sole triumph, in Humshaugh division. Independents won Hexham West and Stocksfield, which is south west of Prudhoe. But the Conservatives won all the others, from the rugged Haltwhistle in the far (and high, and rather wild) west, through Hexham East and Central and Corbridge, to the rural Bellingham at the north end of the seat and Ponteland at its very wealthy end – and also Longhorsley, the arrival from Berwick-upon-Tweed. Labour may well have done better in the Northumberland section if there had been more recent elections, and they did win the Newcastle ward of Callerton & Throckley in May 2023, by over two to one from an Independent in second place – this was actually a gain, as a different Indy had own that ward in 2019 – one of only two occasions Labour haven’t won there in the past 50 years.
Overall, Hexham constituency has long been Conservative held (since 1924) but not necessarily with the largest of vote shares. In recent years, the Labour Party have established a clear but distant 2nd place. The Conservatives are strongest in wealthy commuter belt such as Ponteland and Corbridge as well as reasonably well-off farming villages in the northern part of the constituency. Conversely, Labour are stronger in former mining areas such as Prudhoe and Haltwhistle, as well as parts of Hexham. Even though Hexham has a large Conservative majority, this is on paper a seat Labour need to win in order to achieve an overall majority.
Despite this, it is difficult to envisage Labour actually winning the constituency. Even in 1997, the Tories held on, if only by 222 votes. Hexham is naturally a Conservative orientated area thanks to its wealth and largely rural nature, and Labour already significantly over-perform the demographics. This is a seat which in 2021 was nearly 97% White, over 70% owner occupied, and well into the oldest decile in terms of age profile, with few full time students. The figures are made measurably but only slightly more working class by the minor boundary changes. It remains to be seen how much closer Labour can come, even in a much better national environment. Can Keir Starmer’s party achieve a feat that eluded Tony Blair at the height of his popularity?
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 27.1% 35/575
Owner occupied 70.4% 169/575
Private rented 15.5% 415/575
Social rented 14.1% 334/575
White 96.7% 95/575
Black 0.2% 530/575
Asian 1.8% 416/575
Managerial & professional 38.9% 133/575
Routine & Semi-routine 19.9% 423/575
Degree level 39.2% 127/575
No qualifications 14.8% 434/575
Students 4.7% 461/575
General Election 2019: Hexham
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Guy Opperman 25,152 54.5 +0.4
Labour Penny Grennan 14,603 31.6 -2.5
Liberal Democrats Stephen Howse 4,672 10.1 +3.0
Green Nick Morphet 1,723 3.7 +1.0
C Majority 10,549 22.9 +2.9
2019 electorate 61,324
Turnout 46,150 75.3 +0.2
Conservative hold
Swing 1.5 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Hexham consists of
100% of Hexham
10.2% of Newcastle upon Tyne North
5.0% of Berwick-upon-Tweed
2.1% of Wansbeck
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-east/North%20East_193_Hexham_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings & Thrasher)
| Con | 29313 | 54.3% |
| Lab | 17127 | 31.8% |
| LD | 5078 | 9.4% |
| Grn | 1954 | 3.6% |
| BxP | 473 | 0.9% |
| Majority | 12186 | 22.6% |
