Post by John Chanin on Dec 28, 2023 14:02:11 GMT
This profile is basically an update of @europeanlefty 's original, edited for 2021 census and local elections, and the boundary changes. Northampton is not a town I know well.
Northampton North was severely undersized, with an electorate of under 60,000, and therefore needed expansion in the boundary changes. This has been achieved by adding a section to the west around Kings Heath, and most significantly the town centre in Castle ward, which takes it down to the River Nene. Both these areas have less than 50% owner-occupation, and a good deal of council housing.
Northampton’s history goes back to the tenth century, with the first written record of the town being in 914 has Ham Tune or “Home Town”. The north was added later to distinguish it from other places called Hampton. As Northampton’s medieval town deteriorated, so did its royal connections, during the civil war it was decidedly pro-parliament. In the late eighteenth and early nineteenth century, Northampton became a major centre of footwear and leather manufacture, an industry which rapidly exploded thanks to the demand for boots for the Napoleonic war. It was connected to the midlands coalfields as well as Birmingham Manchester and London by the arrival of the grand union canal, and the railway came in 1845, with a branch line to Peterborough. There were several iron ore quarries in the surrounding area in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, although most have now disappeared. The shoemaking industry also declined after the first world war, and now the industry is almost gone from the town.
Overall the seat has a decidedly working-class profile. The exceptions are the suburban areas on the northern edge of town, where managerial occupations exceed routine, and 80% of households are owner-occupiers, but even here those with minimal qualifications exceed those with degrees. These were the only two wards to return a full slate of Conservatives at the first elections to the new unitary West Northamptonshire Council in 2021. Pockets of low deprivation also exist in Phippsville, just east of the town centre, and Westone on the eastern border with Northampton South. Elsewhere the demography is working class. Managerial jobs are lowest in the 4 western wards, including the town centre, at under 30%. The proportion with degrees drops as low as 22% in the newly added social housing dominated Dallington Spencer ward. There are also extensive council estates in the Talavera ward at the east end of the seat, and this is no better off. Private renting is high in the town centre (over 50%), and the area immediately surrounding. Incomes in the constituency are significantly below average for the nation. Manufacturing is still well above average in this seat, largely still in the shoemaking industry. There is a substantial ethnic minority component, fairly evenly divided between south asian and black, of around 20% in the more deprived wards, and over 10% everywhere except the aforementioned northern subburban wards of Boothville & Parklands, and Kingsthorpe North. All the other wards voted Labour in 2021 although Headlands and Kingsthorpe South where there is higher owner-occupation were close, and there is Liberal Democrat activity out in Talavera.
This has been very much a bellwether seat for a long time. It was Labour in both 1974 elections by very narrow margins, was taken by the Tories in 1979, regained by Labour in 1997 and retaken by the Conservatives in 2010. It nearly fell in 2017, with the Conservatives hanging on by just 807 votes or 2%. In 2019, the swing against Labour was 6%, and the Tory majority stands at just 13.9%. Its former MPs have included Britain’s first ever openly lesbian MP, Maureen Colquhoun, and its predecessor seat of Northampton was represented by Margaret Bondfield, one of the first three women to be elected as a Labour MP, and Spencer Perceval, the only British prime minister ever to have been assassinated in office. Current MP since 2010 is Michael Ellis, a former barrister, briefly promoted to Attorney General under Liz Truss’ leadership. The boundary changes however massively favour the Labour Party, with both wards coming in strongly favouring them, probably wiping out the Conservative lead in the notional results. The other side of this though is that it will make the previously equally marginal Northampton South seat much safer for the Conservatives.
Census data: Owner-occupied 53% (473/575 in England & Wales), private rented 27% (88th), social rented 19% (164th).
: White 77%(432st), Black 9%(74th), South Asian 7%(150th), Mixed 4%(137th), Other 4%(226th)
: Managerial & professional 30% (509th), Routine & Semi-routine 38% (54th)
: Degree level 28%(407th), Minimal qualifications 33%(95th)
: Students 9% (121st), Over 65- 14% (468th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 75% from Northampton N, and 25% from Northampton S
96% of the old seat is in the new one, with 4% going to Northampton S
Northampton North was severely undersized, with an electorate of under 60,000, and therefore needed expansion in the boundary changes. This has been achieved by adding a section to the west around Kings Heath, and most significantly the town centre in Castle ward, which takes it down to the River Nene. Both these areas have less than 50% owner-occupation, and a good deal of council housing.
Northampton’s history goes back to the tenth century, with the first written record of the town being in 914 has Ham Tune or “Home Town”. The north was added later to distinguish it from other places called Hampton. As Northampton’s medieval town deteriorated, so did its royal connections, during the civil war it was decidedly pro-parliament. In the late eighteenth and early nineteenth century, Northampton became a major centre of footwear and leather manufacture, an industry which rapidly exploded thanks to the demand for boots for the Napoleonic war. It was connected to the midlands coalfields as well as Birmingham Manchester and London by the arrival of the grand union canal, and the railway came in 1845, with a branch line to Peterborough. There were several iron ore quarries in the surrounding area in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, although most have now disappeared. The shoemaking industry also declined after the first world war, and now the industry is almost gone from the town.
Overall the seat has a decidedly working-class profile. The exceptions are the suburban areas on the northern edge of town, where managerial occupations exceed routine, and 80% of households are owner-occupiers, but even here those with minimal qualifications exceed those with degrees. These were the only two wards to return a full slate of Conservatives at the first elections to the new unitary West Northamptonshire Council in 2021. Pockets of low deprivation also exist in Phippsville, just east of the town centre, and Westone on the eastern border with Northampton South. Elsewhere the demography is working class. Managerial jobs are lowest in the 4 western wards, including the town centre, at under 30%. The proportion with degrees drops as low as 22% in the newly added social housing dominated Dallington Spencer ward. There are also extensive council estates in the Talavera ward at the east end of the seat, and this is no better off. Private renting is high in the town centre (over 50%), and the area immediately surrounding. Incomes in the constituency are significantly below average for the nation. Manufacturing is still well above average in this seat, largely still in the shoemaking industry. There is a substantial ethnic minority component, fairly evenly divided between south asian and black, of around 20% in the more deprived wards, and over 10% everywhere except the aforementioned northern subburban wards of Boothville & Parklands, and Kingsthorpe North. All the other wards voted Labour in 2021 although Headlands and Kingsthorpe South where there is higher owner-occupation were close, and there is Liberal Democrat activity out in Talavera.
This has been very much a bellwether seat for a long time. It was Labour in both 1974 elections by very narrow margins, was taken by the Tories in 1979, regained by Labour in 1997 and retaken by the Conservatives in 2010. It nearly fell in 2017, with the Conservatives hanging on by just 807 votes or 2%. In 2019, the swing against Labour was 6%, and the Tory majority stands at just 13.9%. Its former MPs have included Britain’s first ever openly lesbian MP, Maureen Colquhoun, and its predecessor seat of Northampton was represented by Margaret Bondfield, one of the first three women to be elected as a Labour MP, and Spencer Perceval, the only British prime minister ever to have been assassinated in office. Current MP since 2010 is Michael Ellis, a former barrister, briefly promoted to Attorney General under Liz Truss’ leadership. The boundary changes however massively favour the Labour Party, with both wards coming in strongly favouring them, probably wiping out the Conservative lead in the notional results. The other side of this though is that it will make the previously equally marginal Northampton South seat much safer for the Conservatives.
Census data: Owner-occupied 53% (473/575 in England & Wales), private rented 27% (88th), social rented 19% (164th).
: White 77%(432st), Black 9%(74th), South Asian 7%(150th), Mixed 4%(137th), Other 4%(226th)
: Managerial & professional 30% (509th), Routine & Semi-routine 38% (54th)
: Degree level 28%(407th), Minimal qualifications 33%(95th)
: Students 9% (121st), Over 65- 14% (468th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 75% from Northampton N, and 25% from Northampton S
96% of the old seat is in the new one, with 4% going to Northampton S
2017 | % | 2019 | % | Notional | % | |
Conservative | 19,065 | 47.2 | 21,031 | 53.2 | 25,427 | 49.8 |
Labour | 18,258 | 45.2 | 15,524 | 39.3 | 21,495 | 42.1 |
Liberal Democrat | 1,015 | 2.5 | 2,031 | 5.1 | 2,906 | 5.7 |
UKIP | 1,404 | 3.5 | ||||
Green | 636 | 1.6 | 953 | 2.4 | 1,256 | 2.5 |
| Majority | 807 | 2.0 | 5,507 | 13.9 | 3,932 | 7.7 |
