Post by John Chanin on Dec 28, 2023 10:18:27 GMT
This profile is based on the original by @europeanlefty , but as well as boundary changes and updated census data, it also contains a considerably expanded description of the seat by myself.
Northamptonshire provided a problem for the Boundary Commission. Not only was the population close to the maximum for 7 seats, but the recent creation by the government of two unitaries in the county meant that the operative wards were the old county wards - as large as those in metropolitan regions. The normal fine tuning of rural and small town wards to produce constituencies of the now required size was therefore not possible. We have therefore the unusual result of 4 ward splits, and 3 crossings of the boundary between the two unitaries. Two of the former and one of the latter are in the new version of this seat, which is substantially altered in the boundary changes, but very closely resembles, ironically, the abolished South Northamptonshire District.
There are two sizeable towns, both market towns with a considerable history. Brackley has a population of 16,000 and a mediaeval core, and Towcester is on the site of a Roman garrison town and there is evidence of human habitation back to the Mesolithic, which lends credibility to the town’s claim to be the oldest town in the county, and one of the longest continuously inhabited settlements in the UK. Towcester has a population of 12,000, and was an important communication centre where Watling Street (A5) met the river Tove. Both towns are thoroughly middle-class, and with the usual modern estates on their outskirts as they continue to expand. Towcester does have a little rundown council housing on the south side. Politically the two towns show the only signs of opposition to the Conservatives in this seat, although still Conservative most of the time.
The towns account for just over a quarter of the seat. Another 25,000 voters come from agricultural south-west Northamptonshire. There are only two villages of any size. Sprawling Silverstone, halfway between Brackley and Towcester is famous for its racing track, and there is industry in both towns supporting the motor sport. On the M40 at the west is Middleton Cheney, a curious place with no centre, that is a tributary of Banbury. Both villages give their name to expansive rural wards, with a variety of small villages, mostly stone built, between the muddy fields. A small corner of Silverstone ward around the Boddingtons on the Warwickshire border has been hived off into Daventry to bring that constituency up to size, and this is the only part of the old South Northamptonshire District outside this seat. East of Towcester there is no substantial village at all, but in the far south are what are effectively suburbs of Milton Keynes at Deanshanger and Old Stratford sitting on the north bank of the river Great Ouse which separates the counties. There are some 5000 voters here. The 3 wards in this section are 45% managerial, 35% with degrees, and 75% owner-occupied, typical of rural areas, and all local councillors are Conservative (although there have been no elections since 2021).
Another 20,000 voters are in the orbit of Northampton. Most of Bugbrooke ward to the west of the town was formerly in Daventry constituency, and these villages (including Harpole and Blisworth) have more the characteristic of commuter villages. Like all commuter villages they are even more Conservative than the countryside, with Conservatives elected unopposed in one of the old wards the last time elections took place in the old Districts. There is similar territory to the south of Northampton like Hackleton and Horton in the valley of the Wootton Brook. This stream also separates the modern exurb of Grange Park from Northampton proper, which sits at the junction of the M1 and the A45, and is the third largest settlement in the seat.
Lastly we have the anomaly. In order to reduce the size of Wellingborough constituency below the maximum limit, the southern half of Irchester ward in North Northamptonshire District, amounting to 5000 voters, has been annexed to the South Northamptonshire seat, despite vociferous objections from the locals. This area, based on the two large villages of Bozeat and Wollaston, south of the river Nene, has very limited connections with the rest of the seat, the main road through the area linking Olney in Milton Keynes to the south with the town of Wellingborough.
In summary, demographically and politically, this is a very Tory-friendly seat. It is the least deprived seat in Northamptonshire and in the bottom 20 of the least deprived constituencies in England. Average earnings are well above the UK average, with 45% in managerial jobs. The constituency is also 76% owner-occupied, almost 13% above the UK average, in the top 50 in the country. In short, this is a very wealthy constituency with little in the way of deprivation. It is also a very white constituency (95% of the population), and only in Grange Park are there any significant ethnic minorities. It is a better educated constituency than average, with a slightly higher proportion of people educated to degree level and a lower proportion with no qualifications. This added up to an estimated leave vote of 53%, only slightly above the national result and well below the East Midlands result.
This constituency has existed separately on three occasion: with two MPs from 1832-1885 and then one MP until 1918; from 1950 to 1974; and now since 2010. In its earliest form it was reliably Conservative with Whigs and Liberals being elected on just 4 occasions. From 1950 to 1974 it was served by two Conservative MPs, although they often held Labour off by very close margins. At that stage the seat also included Daventry which even today has higher Labour strength than much of the area; contained more of Northampton itself; and Towcester and Brackley were more working class towns with the area’s industry (and the industry in Northampton) being a much less distant memory. Since it was reformed in 2010, its sole MP has been Andrea Leadsom and she has never won less than 50% of the vote, the lowest vote share being 55.2% in 2010. The Liberal Democrat collapse put Labour in second for 2015 and they have stayed there ever since, albeit a very distant second with the Tory majority not falling below the 35% achieved in 2017. Although Labour have had more luck in some demographically similar seats, this one is probably too rich, too rural and not studenty enough for the party to launch any serious challenge. The boundary changes which have removed the 3 southern wards of Northampton from the seat, and replaced them with rural villages will if anything make the seat even safer, although the Northampton wards were also solidly Conservative. There is no local base for either the Labour or Liberal Democrat parties.
In summary, this is a rich, economically right-of-centre, socially moderate seat that looks almost tailor-made for the Conservatives. With no obvious challenger and no obvious swing against them, it seems that seat is going to be safely Conservative for a very long time.
Census data: Owner-occupied 76% (42/575 in England & Wales), private rented 13% (510th), social rented 11% (499th).
: White 95%(192nd), Black 1%(324th), South Asian 1%(366th), Mixed 2%(349th), Other 1%(491st)
: Managerial & professional 45% (127th), Routine & Semi-routine 21% (475th)
: Degree level 35%(203rd), Minimal qualifications 24%(431st)
: Students 5% (440th), Over 65- 20% (235th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 84% from Sth Northamptonshire, 10% from Daventry, and 7% from Wellingborough
70% of the old seat is in this one, with 28% going to Northampton S, and 2% to Daventry
Northamptonshire provided a problem for the Boundary Commission. Not only was the population close to the maximum for 7 seats, but the recent creation by the government of two unitaries in the county meant that the operative wards were the old county wards - as large as those in metropolitan regions. The normal fine tuning of rural and small town wards to produce constituencies of the now required size was therefore not possible. We have therefore the unusual result of 4 ward splits, and 3 crossings of the boundary between the two unitaries. Two of the former and one of the latter are in the new version of this seat, which is substantially altered in the boundary changes, but very closely resembles, ironically, the abolished South Northamptonshire District.
There are two sizeable towns, both market towns with a considerable history. Brackley has a population of 16,000 and a mediaeval core, and Towcester is on the site of a Roman garrison town and there is evidence of human habitation back to the Mesolithic, which lends credibility to the town’s claim to be the oldest town in the county, and one of the longest continuously inhabited settlements in the UK. Towcester has a population of 12,000, and was an important communication centre where Watling Street (A5) met the river Tove. Both towns are thoroughly middle-class, and with the usual modern estates on their outskirts as they continue to expand. Towcester does have a little rundown council housing on the south side. Politically the two towns show the only signs of opposition to the Conservatives in this seat, although still Conservative most of the time.
The towns account for just over a quarter of the seat. Another 25,000 voters come from agricultural south-west Northamptonshire. There are only two villages of any size. Sprawling Silverstone, halfway between Brackley and Towcester is famous for its racing track, and there is industry in both towns supporting the motor sport. On the M40 at the west is Middleton Cheney, a curious place with no centre, that is a tributary of Banbury. Both villages give their name to expansive rural wards, with a variety of small villages, mostly stone built, between the muddy fields. A small corner of Silverstone ward around the Boddingtons on the Warwickshire border has been hived off into Daventry to bring that constituency up to size, and this is the only part of the old South Northamptonshire District outside this seat. East of Towcester there is no substantial village at all, but in the far south are what are effectively suburbs of Milton Keynes at Deanshanger and Old Stratford sitting on the north bank of the river Great Ouse which separates the counties. There are some 5000 voters here. The 3 wards in this section are 45% managerial, 35% with degrees, and 75% owner-occupied, typical of rural areas, and all local councillors are Conservative (although there have been no elections since 2021).
Another 20,000 voters are in the orbit of Northampton. Most of Bugbrooke ward to the west of the town was formerly in Daventry constituency, and these villages (including Harpole and Blisworth) have more the characteristic of commuter villages. Like all commuter villages they are even more Conservative than the countryside, with Conservatives elected unopposed in one of the old wards the last time elections took place in the old Districts. There is similar territory to the south of Northampton like Hackleton and Horton in the valley of the Wootton Brook. This stream also separates the modern exurb of Grange Park from Northampton proper, which sits at the junction of the M1 and the A45, and is the third largest settlement in the seat.
Lastly we have the anomaly. In order to reduce the size of Wellingborough constituency below the maximum limit, the southern half of Irchester ward in North Northamptonshire District, amounting to 5000 voters, has been annexed to the South Northamptonshire seat, despite vociferous objections from the locals. This area, based on the two large villages of Bozeat and Wollaston, south of the river Nene, has very limited connections with the rest of the seat, the main road through the area linking Olney in Milton Keynes to the south with the town of Wellingborough.
In summary, demographically and politically, this is a very Tory-friendly seat. It is the least deprived seat in Northamptonshire and in the bottom 20 of the least deprived constituencies in England. Average earnings are well above the UK average, with 45% in managerial jobs. The constituency is also 76% owner-occupied, almost 13% above the UK average, in the top 50 in the country. In short, this is a very wealthy constituency with little in the way of deprivation. It is also a very white constituency (95% of the population), and only in Grange Park are there any significant ethnic minorities. It is a better educated constituency than average, with a slightly higher proportion of people educated to degree level and a lower proportion with no qualifications. This added up to an estimated leave vote of 53%, only slightly above the national result and well below the East Midlands result.
This constituency has existed separately on three occasion: with two MPs from 1832-1885 and then one MP until 1918; from 1950 to 1974; and now since 2010. In its earliest form it was reliably Conservative with Whigs and Liberals being elected on just 4 occasions. From 1950 to 1974 it was served by two Conservative MPs, although they often held Labour off by very close margins. At that stage the seat also included Daventry which even today has higher Labour strength than much of the area; contained more of Northampton itself; and Towcester and Brackley were more working class towns with the area’s industry (and the industry in Northampton) being a much less distant memory. Since it was reformed in 2010, its sole MP has been Andrea Leadsom and she has never won less than 50% of the vote, the lowest vote share being 55.2% in 2010. The Liberal Democrat collapse put Labour in second for 2015 and they have stayed there ever since, albeit a very distant second with the Tory majority not falling below the 35% achieved in 2017. Although Labour have had more luck in some demographically similar seats, this one is probably too rich, too rural and not studenty enough for the party to launch any serious challenge. The boundary changes which have removed the 3 southern wards of Northampton from the seat, and replaced them with rural villages will if anything make the seat even safer, although the Northampton wards were also solidly Conservative. There is no local base for either the Labour or Liberal Democrat parties.
In summary, this is a rich, economically right-of-centre, socially moderate seat that looks almost tailor-made for the Conservatives. With no obvious challenger and no obvious swing against them, it seems that seat is going to be safely Conservative for a very long time.
Census data: Owner-occupied 76% (42/575 in England & Wales), private rented 13% (510th), social rented 11% (499th).
: White 95%(192nd), Black 1%(324th), South Asian 1%(366th), Mixed 2%(349th), Other 1%(491st)
: Managerial & professional 45% (127th), Routine & Semi-routine 21% (475th)
: Degree level 35%(203rd), Minimal qualifications 24%(431st)
: Students 5% (440th), Over 65- 20% (235th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 84% from Sth Northamptonshire, 10% from Daventry, and 7% from Wellingborough
70% of the old seat is in this one, with 28% going to Northampton S, and 2% to Daventry
2017 | % | 2019 | % | Notional | % | |
Conservative | 40,599 | 62.5 | 41,755 | 62.4 | 35,270 | 63.2 |
Labour | 17,759 | 27.3 | 13,994 | 22.9 | 11,599 | 20.8 |
Liberal Democrat | 3,623 | 5.6 | 7,891 | 11.8 | 6,205 | 11.1 |
UKIP | 1,363 | 2.1 | ||||
Green | 1,357 | 2.1 | 2,634 | 3.9 | 2,119 | 3.8 |
Other | 297 | 0.5 | 634 | 0.9 | 634 | 1.1 |
| Majority | 22,840 | 35.1 | 27,761 | 41.5 | 23,671 | 42.4 |
