Doncaster North

[YL]

This post is closely based on the original post by syorkssocialist, who is the first person in the below, with light edits by me referring to the 2021 local elections and the boundary changes

Created in 1983, this constituency is most famous for electing former leader of the opposition and newly appointed shadow cabinet member Ed Miliband on five different occasions.
While Doncaster is often thought of as little more than a run down post industrial town, large swathes of this constituency are fairly rural and it includes villages like Sprotbrough, Fishlake, Campsall and Kirk Bramwith, which most people would consider to be more on the upper class side, relative to the rest of the Doncaster borough. On the other hand, it does include some of the most deprived towns in South Yorkshire such as Stainforth and Mexborough - the former of which I grew up in.

Much of the area has a mining history which is still close to many residents hearts and has played an important factor even in the lives of younger residents. For example, Hatfield Main Colliery in Stainforth remained open until 29th July 2015, making it one of the last three deep coal mines in the UK to permanently shut down. The colliery did cause some problems in its final years, namely a landslide that occurred on the local railway line in 2013, resulting in the station being closed for some time, with trains unable to run on the line. Despite this, the colliery was the one of the main sources of employment in Stainforth and the surrounding villages even by 2015, and many residents lament its loss.

Other collieries in Doncaster North included Askern (closed 1991), Brodsworth (closed 1990) and Hickleton (closed 1988) among others, and dozens of miners who worked at these pits later came to Hatfield. The region is incredibly proud of this heritage and memorials to the industry can be seen outside some pubs and in certain churches and libraries. There are still several miners welfare clubs in operation, many of the older male constituents are themselves former miners and it is still the case that a large portion of residents from the larger towns/villages work industrial jobs such as construction and manufacturing.

As I mentioned early on, while the main population centres of the constituency such as Stainforth, Mexborough, Adwick and Bentley are all pretty working class, it does have some more well to do areas. Fishlake is a lovely rural village that many people who grow up in Stainforth and end up making decent money move to. Property prices are fairly expensive there and its a great place for walking or cycling, but it has had problems with flooding very recently, with many residents still unable to return to their homes. Due to the small populations of villages like this, they tend to be lumped into larger, Labour voting council wards such as Norton & Askern in this particular case.

The one exception to that rule is Sprotbrough, which has a population of about 11,000 and has consistently elected exclusively Conservative councillors since the current ward was created for the 2004 local elections. It is the only major part of Doncaster I've been to that features gated communities and enormous front gardens, so its voting habits should probably not be seen as a surprise. Despite this, every other council ward in Doncaster North bar one (Mexborough) have all reliably voted Labour up to now.

In Mexborough, a group of effective independents called Mexborough 1st began standing there in 2014, gaining their first councillor and later winning all three of the ward's seats in the all-outs of 2015 and 2017, although our canvassing returns indicate that the area has continued to support Labour in general elections. The Branch Labour Party (BLP) in Mexborough ward was inactive for an extended period of time, which probably contributed to our losses there, however some passionate activists are now kicking things back into gear.

Smaller national parties such as the Liberal Democrats and Greens have had very little presence in Doncaster North in recent years, although UKIP did run us close in much of the constituency and managed to win council seats in both Doncaster Central and Don Valley in 2014 and 2015. However, by 2017, there were no UKIP councillors left on DMBC. Mexborough also went through a period of voting LD at the local level up until the coalition, and they unexpectedly won a 1998 council by-election in Stainforth as well.

So, as you would expect from a constituency with this kind of profile, it has voted Labour at every UK parliamentary election since its creation, and the two constituencies it was created from (Goole and Don Valley) continuously elected Labour MPs between 1935 and 1983. Also, due to the strong presence of the mining industry here, the NUM has always been influential and both Michael Welsh and Kevin Hughes (Miliband's predecessors) were sponsored by the NUM when seeking selection. Both MPs were staunch left wingers, the former being a keen supporter of Tony Benn's deputy leadership bid and the latter having been a member of the New Communist Party in the 70s - although he ended up supporting the Iraq war and Blair's anti-terror legislation.

From 1983 to 2017, Doncaster North returned the Labour candidate at every election without fail, usually achieving 50%+ of the total vote with majorities ranging from 10,000 to almost 22,000. However, this changed in December 2019 when Miliband was only re-elected by a very small majority of 2370 votes amid Labour's landslide national defeat. This was only 38.7% of the total vote; a decrease of 22.7% on the election held less than three years prior. In fact, had the Conservative and Brexit Party votes been combined, they would have beaten us. The 2024 boundary changes were minor, but they removed Moorends, which joined Thorne in the new Doncaster East & the Isle of Axholme, and added Barnby Dun, now warded with Stainforth, from Doncaster Central. Barnby Dun is one of the more Conservative places in this area, so the changes slightly reduced the notional Labour majority.

The Chris Hanretty estimates suggest that on the old boundaries this was the 7th most pro-Brexit constituency in the UK with a leave vote of around 72%, and while the pro-second referendum stance taken by the Labour Party undoubtedly proved problematic here, my experience on the doorstep suggested that Corbyn's leadership was the much more pressing issue on people's minds. Whether this result was a temporary blip or a lasting problem for the Labour Party remains to be seen, but the results of the 2021 local elections tended more towards the former, with Labour candidates topping the poll in all wards except the usually Conservative Sprotbrough and the localist-dominated Mexborough. However the Conservatives did win single seats in Norton & Askern and Stainforth & Barnby Dun as well as the two in Sprotbrough. In the 2024 General Election Miliband had a strong result, increasing his vote by well above the national party's performance; in terms of vote share both main parties appear to have been helped here by the absence of a Reform UK candidate, as was the SDP candidate, who saved his deposit and came third.

2019 notional result (Rallings & Thrasher)

Lab 15356 (38.3%)
Con 13286 (33.2%)
Brexit Party 8151 (20.3%)
Lib Dem 1446 (3.6%)
Green 18 (0.0%)
Other 1813 (4.5%)

Lab majority 2070 (5.2%)

(Note that there was no Green candidate in Doncaster North; that figure of 18 is an estimate of the Green vote in Barnby Dun alone.)

2024 result:

Ed Miliband (Lab) 16231 (52.4%)
Glenn Bluff (Con) 7105 (22.9%)
David Bettney (SDP) 1960 (6.3%)
Tony Nicholson (Green) 1778 (5.7%)
Frank Calladine (British Democratic Party) 1160 (3.7%)
Christoper Dawson (Yorkshire Party) 1059 (3.4%)
Jonathan Harston (Lib Dem) 1045 (3.4%)
Catherine Briggs (Party of Women) 452 (1.5%)
Andy Hiles (TUSC) 212 (0.7%)

[mattbewilson]

Interesting to see the comment about whether the labour vote dipping was a blip or not. I was speaking to someone who id have said was politically in the same camp as Miliband but had told my when they met Ed they were surprised at how much he talked down Doncaster.

I wonder if this unconsciously trickles down and feeds into the, Labour doesn't care about us rhetoric. Doncaster still remains the only place to elect a far right mayor

[The Bishop]

On a freakishly low initial vote share thanks to SV, so I really wouldn't read too much into that.

Ed Miliband had his best result here in 2017, so either people only noticed him "talking down" the area after then or (more likely) it was never much of a factor anyway.

[jakegb]

Dec 28, 2023 13:23:13 GMT mattbewilson said:

Interesting to see the comment about whether the labour vote dipping was a blip or not. I was speaking to someone who id have said was politically in the same camp as Miliband but had told my when they met Ed they were surprised at how much he talked down Doncaster.

I wonder if this unconsciously trickles down and feeds into the, Labour doesn't care about us rhetoric. Doncaster still remains the only place to elect a far right mayor

Not surprised to hear this. 
Ed's far more North London, than North Doncaster. 
Like PM in Hartlepool, a very poor fit for this sort of constituency. 
Ed will be returned comfortably enough next year, given the state of the Tory Party; but the days of 60+% vote shares will be long gone in future elections. 

[mattbewilson]

Dec 28, 2023 14:00:52 GMT The Bishop said:

On a freakishly low initial vote share thanks to SV, so I really wouldn't read too much into that.

Ed Miliband had his best result here in 2017, so either people only noticed him "talking down" the area after then or (more likely) it was never much of a factor anyway.

now we haven't got SV I wonder what the lowest share of the vote to win for a mayor or pcc will be in the future

[carlton43]

Dec 28, 2023 13:23:13 GMT mattbewilson said:

Interesting to see the comment about whether the labour vote dipping was a blip or not. I was speaking to someone who id have said was politically in the same camp as Miliband but had told my when they met Ed they were surprised at how much he talked down Doncaster.

I wonder if this unconsciously trickles down and feeds into the, Labour doesn't care about us rhetoric. Doncaster still remains the only place to elect a far right mayor

It is a strange place surrounded by a few rather nice ones and with excellent communications, a racecourse and some reasonable buildings; but it goes from dour to dire and I know no one who actually likes it.  Recent talk here about the ennui and pointlessness of Northampton.  Well, this is a downmarket, scruffy, often edgy, working class version of it.

[Robert Waller]

2021 Census, new boundaries

Age 65+ 19.8% 258/575
Owner occupied 63.5% 347/575
Private rented 18.1% 288/575
Social rented 18.4% 191/575
White 96.8% 89/575
Black 0.7% 390/575
Asian 1.1% 510/575
Managerial & professional 23.5% 518/575
Routine & Semi-routine 33.2% 24/575
Degree level 21.0% 560/575
No qualifications 25.4% 44/575
Students 4.7% 458/575




General Election 2019: Doncaster North

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Labour Ed Miliband 15,740 38.7 -22.1
Conservative Katrina Sale 13,370 32.6 +5.0
Brexit Party Andy Stewart 8,294 20.4
Liberal Democrats Joe Otten 1,476 3.6 +1.9
Yorkshire Stevie Manion 959 2.4 +0.6
English Democrat Frank Calladine 309 0.8 -0.1
No description Eddie Todd 220 0.5
Independent Wendy Bailey 188 0.5
Independent Neil Wood 142 0.4

Lab Majority 2,370 6.1 -27.1

Turnout 41,229 56.2 -2.3

Labour hold

Swing 13.7 Lab to C



Boundary Changes
Doncaster North comprises
95.1% of Doncaster North
4.1% of Doncaster Central

Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/yorkshire-and-the-humber/Yorkshire%20and%20the%20Humber%20Region_503_Doncaster%20North_Landscape.pdf

[wysall]

Dec 28, 2023 14:05:21 GMT jakegb said:

Dec 28, 2023 13:23:13 GMT mattbewilson said:

Interesting to see the comment about whether the labour vote dipping was a blip or not. I was speaking to someone who id have said was politically in the same camp as Miliband but had told my when they met Ed they were surprised at how much he talked down Doncaster.

I wonder if this unconsciously trickles down and feeds into the, Labour doesn't care about us rhetoric. Doncaster still remains the only place to elect a far right mayor

Not surprised to hear this. 
Ed's far more North London, than North Doncaster. 
Like PM in Hartlepool, a very poor fit for this sort of constituency. 
Ed will be returned comfortably enough next year, given the state of the Tory Party; but the days of 60+% vote shares will be long gone in future elections. 

Be serious: Wheatley Hills and Cusworth aren't that well-off.

[The Bishop]

Dec 28, 2023 14:05:21 GMT jakegb said:

Dec 28, 2023 13:23:13 GMT mattbewilson said:

Interesting to see the comment about whether the labour vote dipping was a blip or not. I was speaking to someone who id have said was politically in the same camp as Miliband but had told my when they met Ed they were surprised at how much he talked down Doncaster.

I wonder if this unconsciously trickles down and feeds into the, Labour doesn't care about us rhetoric. Doncaster still remains the only place to elect a far right mayor

Not surprised to hear this. 
Ed's far more North London, than North Doncaster. 
Like PM in Hartlepool, a very poor fit for this sort of constituency. 
Ed will be returned comfortably enough next year, given the state of the Tory Party; but the days of 60+% vote shares will be long gone in future elections. 

This is rather lazy and unthinking stuff.

There is actually little evidence that Ed is that unpopular locally - as I said above how do you explain his 2017 result in that case? And last time round Labour slumped in lots of similar seats across the country, for reasons that are surely well known.

And your comment on Hartlepool also shows a lack of actual insight. Mandelson actually did pretty well in his elections there - especially in 2001 which was after the various scandals, and when Labour fell back somewhat in quite a few of its safe seats. Even during the 2021 byelection campaign that saw such a terrible Labour result, many locals still spoke quite affectionately about him. You can be a "parachute" and still become an effective MP who is respected by your voters.

If you want to look for examples of this sort of thing that didn't work, there are instances in all parties. But don't generalise.

[mattbewilson]

Dec 29, 2023 12:05:33 GMT The Bishop said:

Dec 28, 2023 14:05:21 GMT jakegb said:

Not surprised to hear this. 
Ed's far more North London, than North Doncaster. 
Like PM in Hartlepool, a very poor fit for this sort of constituency. 
Ed will be returned comfortably enough next year, given the state of the Tory Party; but the days of 60+% vote shares will be long gone in future elections. 

This is rather lazy and unthinking stuff.

There is actually little evidence that Ed is that unpopular locally - as I said above how do you explain his 2017 result in that case? And last time round Labour slumped in lots of similar seats across the country, for reasons that are surely well known.

And your comment on Hartlepool also shows a lack of actual insight. Mandelson actually did pretty well in his elections there - especially in 2001 which was after the various scandals, and when Labour fell back somewhat in quite a few of its safe seats. Even during the 2021 byelection campaign that saw such a terrible Labour result, many locals still spoke quite affectionately about him. You can be a "parachute" and still become an effective MP who is respected by your voters.

If you want to look for examples of this sort of thing that didn't work, there are instances in all parties. But don't generalise.

though Hartlepool is another place that at least in the local elections labour seemed to suffer during the Mandelson years. Only place to elect a football mascot as a mayor.

Not saying it's Mandelson's fault mind

[The Bishop]

Drummond's win was certainly the canary in the coalmine for something, but around that time Ray Mallon was beating official Labour crushingly just down the road.

[jakegb]

Dec 29, 2023 12:05:33 GMT The Bishop said:

Dec 28, 2023 14:05:21 GMT jakegb said:

Not surprised to hear this. 
Ed's far more North London, than North Doncaster. 
Like PM in Hartlepool, a very poor fit for this sort of constituency. 
Ed will be returned comfortably enough next year, given the state of the Tory Party; but the days of 60+% vote shares will be long gone in future elections. 

This is rather lazy and unthinking stuff.

There is actually little evidence that Ed is that unpopular locally - as I said above how do you explain his 2017 result in that case? And last time round Labour slumped in lots of similar seats across the country, for reasons that are surely well known.

And your comment on Hartlepool also shows a lack of actual insight. Mandelson actually did pretty well in his elections there - especially in 2001 which was after the various scandals, and when Labour fell back somewhat in quite a few of its safe seats. Even during the 2021 byelection campaign that saw such a terrible Labour result, many locals still spoke quite affectionately about him. You can be a "parachute" and still become an effective MP who is respected by your voters.

If you want to look for examples of this sort of thing that didn't work, there are instances in all parties. But don't generalise.

You can make your points without being rude. 
As cited already, Hartlepool (locally) was a mess in the Blair years. The 04 by-election in Hartlepool was also nearly lost by Labour - hardly chimes with a satisfied electorate? 

[Sibboleth]

Meanwhile, back in the real world, Miliband is a diligent constituency MP (more so than some other high profile politicians with a national focus) and
Corbyn was just savagely unpopular in this part of Yorkshire by 2019: the IRA stuff in particular seems to have spread like wildfire, with obvious implications in an area that has always been important recruiting territory for the army.

[mattbewilson]

Dec 29, 2023 14:54:39 GMT Sibboleth said:

Meanwhile, back in the real world, Miliband is a diligent constituency MP (more so than some other high profile politicians with a national focus) and
Corbyn was just savagely unpopular in this part of Yorkshire by 2019: the IRA stuff in particular seems to have spread like wildfire, with obvious implications in an area that has always been important recruiting territory for the army.

I can't actually comment on that. I don't know if he is or not.

I actually really like Ed Miliband personally and I hope he is a diligent MP. I did have a look and I think but I could be wrong but Doncaster North had the biggest Labour to Tory swing in South Yorkshire. Might be to do with the army recruitment. I'll be honest it's the part of South Yorkshire I might know the least

Could also be the point Bish said about labour having a significant majority in 2017, larger the fall the bigger the splash. I genuinely don't know

[batman]

Dec 29, 2023 14:05:18 GMT jakegb said:

Dec 29, 2023 12:05:33 GMT The Bishop said:

This is rather lazy and unthinking stuff.

There is actually little evidence that Ed is that unpopular locally - as I said above how do you explain his 2017 result in that case? And last time round Labour slumped in lots of similar seats across the country, for reasons that are surely well known.

And your comment on Hartlepool also shows a lack of actual insight. Mandelson actually did pretty well in his elections there - especially in 2001 which was after the various scandals, and when Labour fell back somewhat in quite a few of its safe seats. Even during the 2021 byelection campaign that saw such a terrible Labour result, many locals still spoke quite affectionately about him. You can be a "parachute" and still become an effective MP who is respected by your voters.

If you want to look for examples of this sort of thing that didn't work, there are instances in all parties. But don't generalise.

You can make your points without being rude. 
As cited already, Hartlepool (locally) was a mess in the Blair years. The 04 by-election in Hartlepool was also nearly lost by Labour - hardly chimes with a satisfied electorate? 

There was nothing rude about The Bishop's reply. It's perfectly fair criticism. If you don't want anyone to disagree with you, it's better not to comment in the first place, with the greatest of respect.

Ed Miliband is no more a poor fit with his constituency than hundreds of postwar MPs of all parties. Some MPs who have had particularly noteworthily poor results in their constituencies, in addition, have superficially appeared to be better fits.

[batman]

And it hadn't escaped my attention that Miliband & Mandelson have some similarities in terms of ethnicity. I do hope that that was not a factor in your comment. I will assume that it wasn't in the absence of clear evidence that it was.

[mattbewilson]

Dec 29, 2023 15:59:56 GMT batman said:

And it hadn't escaped my attention that Miliband & Mandelson have some similarities in terms of ethnicity. I do hope that that was not a factor in your comment. I will assume that it wasn't in the absence of clear evidence that it was.

oh there was certainly no conscious comparison other than political. I'm very sorry

[batman]

My comment was addressed to jakegb who introduced the topic, no need to apologize on your part & probably not on his either

[The Bishop]

Dec 29, 2023 14:05:18 GMT jakegb said:

Dec 29, 2023 12:05:33 GMT The Bishop said:

This is rather lazy and unthinking stuff.

There is actually little evidence that Ed is that unpopular locally - as I said above how do you explain his 2017 result in that case? And last time round Labour slumped in lots of similar seats across the country, for reasons that are surely well known.

And your comment on Hartlepool also shows a lack of actual insight. Mandelson actually did pretty well in his elections there - especially in 2001 which was after the various scandals, and when Labour fell back somewhat in quite a few of its safe seats. Even during the 2021 byelection campaign that saw such a terrible Labour result, many locals still spoke quite affectionately about him. You can be a "parachute" and still become an effective MP who is respected by your voters.

If you want to look for examples of this sort of thing that didn't work, there are instances in all parties. But don't generalise.

You can make your points without being rude. 
As cited already, Hartlepool (locally) was a mess in the Blair years. The 04 by-election in Hartlepool was also nearly lost by Labour - hardly chimes with a satisfied electorate? 

If you think I was rude, you had better hope you never get on the wrong side of eastmidlandsright

Anyway, the 2004 byelection was a Labour hold by 2k votes - which maybe doesn't sound so great until you consider that a short time before Labour had held Birmingham Hodge Hill (an even safer seat) by less than 500 votes, plus losing Leicester South and (the year before) Brent East.

It was also notable that Mandelson resigning as MP for an EU job was never really an issue in the campaign, despite the best efforts of the LibDems to make it so.