Post by Robert Waller on Dec 27, 2023 23:11:59 GMT
This is based on jamie's previous work on Wansbeck and Blyth Valley, with boundary changes by Pete Whitehead, and local election, census commentary and concluding paragraph by myself
The proposed boundary changes create a 'new' seat of Blyth & Ashington but despite the order of the names, most of the electorate (46.5k) comes from the Wansbeck constituency: in Ashington itself, Bedlington and Newbiggin - essentially the whole of that seat less the area in and around Morpeth, which has been placed in the new North Northumberland division. Morpeth is replaced by nearly 29,000 voters in Blyth itself which will be the largest town in the constituency, but this is not only a minority of this seat but a minority of Blyth Valley. Blyth is much more Labour inclined than Morpeth (notwithstanding the rather phenomenal Conservative performance there in the local elections in 2021) and this will have been safely Labour even in 2019, which means that historically (and probably for the immediate future) this should be a Labour seat.
Wansbeck constituency, the chief donor to this Blyth & Ashington seat, covered a number of largely ex coal mining communities in Northumberland. The largest settlement is Ashington, and also included are Bedlington, and a number of small villages. Wansbeck had existed since 1983 and was regarded as a safe Labour constituency. In 2017, Labour won by 25% over the Conservatives. Despite this, in 2019 the constituency saw a massive swing leaving Labour with only a 2% majority. The constituency was named after the River Wansbeck which flows through the middle of constituency. It was also the name of the former council area covering the constituency (except Morpeth).
The largest settlement of the Wansbeck constituency was Ashington. Once dominated by the coal mining industry, Ashington has since fallen on hard times. Most of the town is very deprived, although there are some private housing estates scattered around. Ashington has long been a Labour stronghold. In 2017, they will have dominated all parts of the town. Even in 2019, Labour will have been comfortably ahead here and the Conservative only coming close in the middle class housing estates. Labour is strongest in the north/east of the town where poverty is widespread, and their support here is possibly their strongest outside of a metropolitan area. Labour is also strong in the adjacent village of Newbiggin by the Sea, which has a coal mining history as well as a reliance on tourism.
In the most recent municipal elections, in May 2021 for the Northumberland unitary authority, Labour won all the electoral divisions in the Ashington/Newbiggin area. In Ashington Central they took more than twice the share of the party that finished second, in this case the Greens - joining the fray here and taking over 26%. Immediately to the east, in the Hirst division, notable for its long straight rows of ageing terraced housing, Labour did even better, taking a 72% share with the Tories second with 16%. No other party has won either of these in recorded history. In Hardon, south west Ashington, the Liberal Democrats did win once, in 2008, but they did not contest the division in 2021 when Labour beat the Conservatives in a straight fight 68% - 32%. In College, SE Ashington, a similar candidature pattern saw Labour triumph by 74% to 26%, Between Ashington and Newbiggin, Labour took 66% in Seaton & Newbiggin West, and in Newbiggin Central & East they beat the Tories by 55% to 30%.
On the other side of the river Wansbeck are a collection of former coal mining villages. These include Guide Post, Stakeford and the Sleekburns (with the tiny and rather weird communities of Cambois and North Blyth), and Choppington, once known when it was a pit village as one of the North East’s ‘Little Moscows’. All the Northumberland council divisions covering these areas have been Labour ever since 1973 (at least) except for a pair of LD wins in Stakeford in 1981 and 1985; and they took all three of them in 2021, though none by a large margin. Labour will have been far ahead here in 2017 and will still have comfortably won everywhere outside the most middle class parts of central Guide Post in 2019. Guide Post is in Choppington division, where Labour only edged in ahead of an Independent by less than 2% of the vote in May 2021.
Finally, the constituency takes in the former coal mining town of Bedlington. Eastern Bedlington has significant levels of poverty and votes very strongly for Labour, even in 2019. Conversely, western Bedlington has some more middle class housing estates and will have been reasonably close in 2019. In May 2021 Labour did win Bedlington East, but there is a strong localist presence here and Independents took the other two Bedlington wards, Central and West, as they have done regularly since 2017.
Turning to the section that has come from the Blyth Valley constituency, in Blyth itself we find a largely post-industrial town. The coal mining industry has disappeared in recent decades and while the town still functions as a port, it retains significant deprivation. Blyth is by far the most Labour friendly part of the constituency and will have quite comfortably voted Labour even in 2019. Labour are strongest in the council estates that dominate the north and central areas of the town. The Conservative vote is disproportionately concentrated in South Blyth, an area of affluence in an otherwise almost entirely working class town. The area will have been close in 2017 but comfortably Conservative in 2019.
In the Northumberland elections of May 2021 there was probably still some of the 2019 general election effect persisting in the Blyth divisions, as while Labour won most of them, their victories were often close. Their best performance came in the very working class Hirst division, where they took a 72% share, but elsewhere it was less convincing. In the eastern Blyth divisions they won Wensleydale on the seafront with 55% to 42% Tory, but in inland Plessey the Liberal Democrats won as they have since 2008, and the Conservatives moved forward into second place. In central Blyth Labour won Isabella and Cowpen (pronounced Coopen) narrowly with swings of 16% and 17% respectively since 2017 to the Tories. In western Blyth the Conservatives actually gained the Kitty Brewster division for the first time in living memory; and they also gained South Blyth from the Lib Dems. They gained Newsham (which also includes New Delaval) from Labour too.
The detailed 2021 Census figures for Blyth & Ashington, calculated by bjornhattan, clearly reveal that this combination is much more working class than either Wansbeck or Blyth Valley were, as the counterbalancing Cramlington and Morpeth elements are removed. Over 30% across the constituency work in routine and semi-routine occupations (which was true of neither Wansbeck nor Blyth Valley), and this reached 38% in Blyth Cowpen MSOA, 37% in Ashington Hirst and 36% in Blyth Isabella. The Blyth & Ashington constituency proportion with academic degrees is now amongst the 35 lowest in England and Wales, at less than 22%,. In Blyth’s Cowpen and Isabella areas this figure is under 16%. Finally, in Newbiggin as well as those poorer parts of Blyth and Ashington already mentioned, the household deprivation rate reaches or exceeds 65%.
There was a time when these socio-economic class and other demographic variable statistics, together with a century of Labour voting tradition, would have suggested that Blyth & Ashington will be a rock-solid Labour seat. Ian Lavery, the Wansbeck MP and former Chairman of the party under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership has sought and achieved selection for this constituency. However even though it would indeed have survived the Boris assault in 2019 (unlike Blyth Valley) and not been very close (as Wansbeck was), it would have still had a much larger Conservative share (estimated at 36%, with around 6% voting for the Brexit party) than would have been expected in previous eras. Labour may well win Blyth & Ashington comfortably in the forthcoming general election - but they will no longer be able to take the support of even working class Northumberland for granted in the more long term future.
2021 Census
Age 65+ 21.0% 203/575
Owner occupied 59.5% 407/575
Private rented 17.9% 298/575
Social rented 22.6% 95/575
White 97.5% 37/575
Black 0.2% 545/575
Asian 1.1% 502/575
Managerial & professional 24.6% 490/575
Routine & Semi-routine 30.5% 72/575
Degree level 22.6% 539/573
No qualifications 21.7% 127/575
Students 4.5% 506/575
General Election 2019: Wansbeck
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Ian Lavery 17,124 42.3 -15.0
Conservative Jack Gebhard 16,310 40.3 +7.6
Brexit Party Eden Webley 3,141 7.8 N/A
Liberal Democrats Stephen Psallidas 2,539 6.3 +1.6
Green Steven Leyland 1,217 3.0 +1.3
CPA Michael Flynn 178 0.4 N/A
Lab Majority 814 2.0 -22.8
Turnout 40,509 64.0 -4.4
Labour hold
Swing 11.3 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Blyth and Ashington consists of
73.4% Wansbeck
44.7% of Blyth Valley
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-east/North%20East_186_Blyth%2
2019 Notional results on new boundaries - Rallings & Thrasher
The proposed boundary changes create a 'new' seat of Blyth & Ashington but despite the order of the names, most of the electorate (46.5k) comes from the Wansbeck constituency: in Ashington itself, Bedlington and Newbiggin - essentially the whole of that seat less the area in and around Morpeth, which has been placed in the new North Northumberland division. Morpeth is replaced by nearly 29,000 voters in Blyth itself which will be the largest town in the constituency, but this is not only a minority of this seat but a minority of Blyth Valley. Blyth is much more Labour inclined than Morpeth (notwithstanding the rather phenomenal Conservative performance there in the local elections in 2021) and this will have been safely Labour even in 2019, which means that historically (and probably for the immediate future) this should be a Labour seat.
Wansbeck constituency, the chief donor to this Blyth & Ashington seat, covered a number of largely ex coal mining communities in Northumberland. The largest settlement is Ashington, and also included are Bedlington, and a number of small villages. Wansbeck had existed since 1983 and was regarded as a safe Labour constituency. In 2017, Labour won by 25% over the Conservatives. Despite this, in 2019 the constituency saw a massive swing leaving Labour with only a 2% majority. The constituency was named after the River Wansbeck which flows through the middle of constituency. It was also the name of the former council area covering the constituency (except Morpeth).
The largest settlement of the Wansbeck constituency was Ashington. Once dominated by the coal mining industry, Ashington has since fallen on hard times. Most of the town is very deprived, although there are some private housing estates scattered around. Ashington has long been a Labour stronghold. In 2017, they will have dominated all parts of the town. Even in 2019, Labour will have been comfortably ahead here and the Conservative only coming close in the middle class housing estates. Labour is strongest in the north/east of the town where poverty is widespread, and their support here is possibly their strongest outside of a metropolitan area. Labour is also strong in the adjacent village of Newbiggin by the Sea, which has a coal mining history as well as a reliance on tourism.
In the most recent municipal elections, in May 2021 for the Northumberland unitary authority, Labour won all the electoral divisions in the Ashington/Newbiggin area. In Ashington Central they took more than twice the share of the party that finished second, in this case the Greens - joining the fray here and taking over 26%. Immediately to the east, in the Hirst division, notable for its long straight rows of ageing terraced housing, Labour did even better, taking a 72% share with the Tories second with 16%. No other party has won either of these in recorded history. In Hardon, south west Ashington, the Liberal Democrats did win once, in 2008, but they did not contest the division in 2021 when Labour beat the Conservatives in a straight fight 68% - 32%. In College, SE Ashington, a similar candidature pattern saw Labour triumph by 74% to 26%, Between Ashington and Newbiggin, Labour took 66% in Seaton & Newbiggin West, and in Newbiggin Central & East they beat the Tories by 55% to 30%.
On the other side of the river Wansbeck are a collection of former coal mining villages. These include Guide Post, Stakeford and the Sleekburns (with the tiny and rather weird communities of Cambois and North Blyth), and Choppington, once known when it was a pit village as one of the North East’s ‘Little Moscows’. All the Northumberland council divisions covering these areas have been Labour ever since 1973 (at least) except for a pair of LD wins in Stakeford in 1981 and 1985; and they took all three of them in 2021, though none by a large margin. Labour will have been far ahead here in 2017 and will still have comfortably won everywhere outside the most middle class parts of central Guide Post in 2019. Guide Post is in Choppington division, where Labour only edged in ahead of an Independent by less than 2% of the vote in May 2021.
Finally, the constituency takes in the former coal mining town of Bedlington. Eastern Bedlington has significant levels of poverty and votes very strongly for Labour, even in 2019. Conversely, western Bedlington has some more middle class housing estates and will have been reasonably close in 2019. In May 2021 Labour did win Bedlington East, but there is a strong localist presence here and Independents took the other two Bedlington wards, Central and West, as they have done regularly since 2017.
Turning to the section that has come from the Blyth Valley constituency, in Blyth itself we find a largely post-industrial town. The coal mining industry has disappeared in recent decades and while the town still functions as a port, it retains significant deprivation. Blyth is by far the most Labour friendly part of the constituency and will have quite comfortably voted Labour even in 2019. Labour are strongest in the council estates that dominate the north and central areas of the town. The Conservative vote is disproportionately concentrated in South Blyth, an area of affluence in an otherwise almost entirely working class town. The area will have been close in 2017 but comfortably Conservative in 2019.
In the Northumberland elections of May 2021 there was probably still some of the 2019 general election effect persisting in the Blyth divisions, as while Labour won most of them, their victories were often close. Their best performance came in the very working class Hirst division, where they took a 72% share, but elsewhere it was less convincing. In the eastern Blyth divisions they won Wensleydale on the seafront with 55% to 42% Tory, but in inland Plessey the Liberal Democrats won as they have since 2008, and the Conservatives moved forward into second place. In central Blyth Labour won Isabella and Cowpen (pronounced Coopen) narrowly with swings of 16% and 17% respectively since 2017 to the Tories. In western Blyth the Conservatives actually gained the Kitty Brewster division for the first time in living memory; and they also gained South Blyth from the Lib Dems. They gained Newsham (which also includes New Delaval) from Labour too.
The detailed 2021 Census figures for Blyth & Ashington, calculated by bjornhattan, clearly reveal that this combination is much more working class than either Wansbeck or Blyth Valley were, as the counterbalancing Cramlington and Morpeth elements are removed. Over 30% across the constituency work in routine and semi-routine occupations (which was true of neither Wansbeck nor Blyth Valley), and this reached 38% in Blyth Cowpen MSOA, 37% in Ashington Hirst and 36% in Blyth Isabella. The Blyth & Ashington constituency proportion with academic degrees is now amongst the 35 lowest in England and Wales, at less than 22%,. In Blyth’s Cowpen and Isabella areas this figure is under 16%. Finally, in Newbiggin as well as those poorer parts of Blyth and Ashington already mentioned, the household deprivation rate reaches or exceeds 65%.
There was a time when these socio-economic class and other demographic variable statistics, together with a century of Labour voting tradition, would have suggested that Blyth & Ashington will be a rock-solid Labour seat. Ian Lavery, the Wansbeck MP and former Chairman of the party under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership has sought and achieved selection for this constituency. However even though it would indeed have survived the Boris assault in 2019 (unlike Blyth Valley) and not been very close (as Wansbeck was), it would have still had a much larger Conservative share (estimated at 36%, with around 6% voting for the Brexit party) than would have been expected in previous eras. Labour may well win Blyth & Ashington comfortably in the forthcoming general election - but they will no longer be able to take the support of even working class Northumberland for granted in the more long term future.
2021 Census
Age 65+ 21.0% 203/575
Owner occupied 59.5% 407/575
Private rented 17.9% 298/575
Social rented 22.6% 95/575
White 97.5% 37/575
Black 0.2% 545/575
Asian 1.1% 502/575
Managerial & professional 24.6% 490/575
Routine & Semi-routine 30.5% 72/575
Degree level 22.6% 539/573
No qualifications 21.7% 127/575
Students 4.5% 506/575
General Election 2019: Wansbeck
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Ian Lavery 17,124 42.3 -15.0
Conservative Jack Gebhard 16,310 40.3 +7.6
Brexit Party Eden Webley 3,141 7.8 N/A
Liberal Democrats Stephen Psallidas 2,539 6.3 +1.6
Green Steven Leyland 1,217 3.0 +1.3
CPA Michael Flynn 178 0.4 N/A
Lab Majority 814 2.0 -22.8
Turnout 40,509 64.0 -4.4
Labour hold
Swing 11.3 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Blyth and Ashington consists of
73.4% Wansbeck
44.7% of Blyth Valley
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-east/North%20East_186_Blyth%2
2019 Notional results on new boundaries - Rallings & Thrasher
| Lab | 20500 | 47.7% |
| Con | 14382 | 34.9% |
| BxP | 3921 | 9.1% |
| LD | 2761 | 6.4% |
| Grn | 1248 | 2.9% |
| Oth | 178 | 0.4% |
| Majority | 6118 | 14.2% |
