Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Dec 27, 2023 0:06:02 GMT
This is loosely based on merging profiles by The Bishop and Merseymike and content from Pete Whitehead
Boundary changes for the upcoming general election create a rare thing: a cross-border seat between Lancashire and Cumbria. Let us go back to 1950, when Ian Fraser won "Morecambe and Lonsdale" (note the spelling) for the Conservative. This seat incorporated what you might call Lancashire both under and over the Sands, before the Palatine lost acres to newly constituted Cumbria. The new seat crosses from Morecambe Bay into Sedbergh and Lunesdale, almost in a clear diagonal line, and could be electorally interesting for all that. These ares Significant boundary changes take in nearly 15,000 voters from Westmorland & Lonsdale as well as another 3,500 in the Lower Lune Valley from Lancaster. 10,000 voters are removed in Skerton which is a Labour voting area of Lancaster itself.
The current seat has existed in reasonably similar form since 1983, with the safe Labour Skerton wards of Lancaster added to the seat in the last boundary review. Like many other seaside resorts it has a firmly Conservative history, with Labour in third place with 17.7% at its creation in 1983. Between 1997 and 2010 it was held by former local councillor Geraldine Smith, who seems to have entirely disappeared from the radar since losing the seat, and while the strongly Leave-voting preferences of Morecambe swung the seat further to the Conservatives in 2019, it remains competitive. Geraldine Smith held the seat for Labour from 1997 to 2010, as she remains the sole Labour MP for the constituency or its linear predecessors.
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Boundary changes for the upcoming general election create a rare thing: a cross-border seat between Lancashire and Cumbria. Let us go back to 1950, when Ian Fraser won "Morecambe and Lonsdale" (note the spelling) for the Conservative. This seat incorporated what you might call Lancashire both under and over the Sands, before the Palatine lost acres to newly constituted Cumbria. The new seat crosses from Morecambe Bay into Sedbergh and Lunesdale, almost in a clear diagonal line, and could be electorally interesting for all that. These ares Significant boundary changes take in nearly 15,000 voters from Westmorland & Lonsdale as well as another 3,500 in the Lower Lune Valley from Lancaster. 10,000 voters are removed in Skerton which is a Labour voting area of Lancaster itself.
The current seat has existed in reasonably similar form since 1983, with the safe Labour Skerton wards of Lancaster added to the seat in the last boundary review. Like many other seaside resorts it has a firmly Conservative history, with Labour in third place with 17.7% at its creation in 1983. Between 1997 and 2010 it was held by former local councillor Geraldine Smith, who seems to have entirely disappeared from the radar since losing the seat, and while the strongly Leave-voting preferences of Morecambe swung the seat further to the Conservatives in 2019, it remains competitive. Geraldine Smith held the seat for Labour from 1997 to 2010, as she remains the sole Labour MP for the constituency or its linear predecessors.
The constituency consists of all the wards in Morecambe town itself. The west end of Morecambe has a poverty profile which outstrips many inner cities - its former holiday flatlets were first occupied by students from Lancaster University, and when they demanded accommodation less damp and squalid, were filled by a large intinerant population of people with often quite severe personal problems. Morecambe has its wealthy ward of Bare, but nationally, its votes have certainly moved towards the Labour column. Its neighbouring township of Heysham is politically marginal, but Labour are likely to edge a national contest. Outside the town, only Carnforth has any significant Labour presence, and wards such as Slyne-with-Hest, Kellet and Bolton-le-Sands are prosperous retirement zones which overwhelmingly vote Conservative nationally and certainly contribute to the Conservative majority.
Lonsdale had been a seat in its own right between 1918 and 1945, mostly voting Tory but recording a Liberal win in 1923 that was reversed the following year. Between 1950 and 1979 it formed part of Morecambe and Lonsdale (the Lancaster and Fleetwood of its day!) however unwieldy the geography may have been, though, the politics was much simpler as Morecambe was at that time a Tory stronghold and the seat invariably returned comfortable wins for them. The seat also gained a chunk of territiory, centred on Sedbergh, that had been in the north riding of Yorkshire prior to the county of Cumbria's creation in 1973 - a decision that was highly contentious at the time and is still not fully accepted locally.
The local profile in Morecambe is confused by the presence of the Morecambe Bay Independents. Similar to the Southport Party, they began as a movement to remove Morecambe from the clutches of Lancaster City Council - the failure to include Morecambe in its name rankles to this day - but have developed into a broader localist party.
2019 Notional result
Lonsdale had been a seat in its own right between 1918 and 1945, mostly voting Tory but recording a Liberal win in 1923 that was reversed the following year. Between 1950 and 1979 it formed part of Morecambe and Lonsdale (the Lancaster and Fleetwood of its day!) however unwieldy the geography may have been, though, the politics was much simpler as Morecambe was at that time a Tory stronghold and the seat invariably returned comfortable wins for them. The seat also gained a chunk of territiory, centred on Sedbergh, that had been in the north riding of Yorkshire prior to the county of Cumbria's creation in 1973 - a decision that was highly contentious at the time and is still not fully accepted locally.
The local profile in Morecambe is confused by the presence of the Morecambe Bay Independents. Similar to the Southport Party, they began as a movement to remove Morecambe from the clutches of Lancaster City Council - the failure to include Morecambe in its name rankles to this day - but have developed into a broader localist party.
2019 Notional result
| Con | 29312 | 53.9% |
| Lab | 15523 | 28.6% |
| LD | 8005 | 14.7% |
| Grn | 798 | 1.5% |
| Ind | 469 | 0.9% |
| BxP | 246 | 0.5% |
13789
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