Post by Robert Waller on Dec 25, 2023 17:07:03 GMT
This is based on previous work by jamie with additions by myself and work on boundary changes by Pete Whitehead
The northern part of England’s northernmost county was heavily over-represented up to and including the 2019 general election. The Berwick-upon-Tweed constituency which reached a once long contested border with Scotland only had 59,939 electors, and to its immediate south Wansbeck was also undersized with 63,000. This has meant major boundary changes which have (eventually) resulted in the disappearance of the name of Berwick which had graced a parliamentary division since 1512. The main addition is the three wards of the town of Morpeth, previously in Wansbeck (although it had a seat of its own name between 1553 and 1983), and right up till the final report of the Boundary Commission in June 2023 the name of the resulting merger was recommended to be ‘Berwick and Morpeth’. However after persistent complaints, not least from those who felt that another historic town, Alnwick, had an equal claim to be mentioned in the title, all three have been consigned to anonymity by the geographically descriptive but unromantic North Northumberland. Other changes are that the ward of Pegswood is also switched from Wansbeck, while a section in the south western corner of Berwick (just 5% of its electorate), around the Longhorsley electoral division, switched to Hexham.
Added though, is nearly a quarter of the Wansbeck seat, which (narrowly) remained Labour even in December 2019 when its neighbour Blyth Valley was notably the first (and one if the more unexpected) Conservative gains of the night. However this probably will not have as much of an effect on the political balance of the new North Northumberland as may be thought. A historic market town, Morpeth was the main part of the Wansbeck constituency not to have a significant industrial heritage. It was also by far the most middle class part: in Morpeth South and West MSOA in the 2021 census fully 52% were employed in professional and managerial occupations As a consequence, Morpeth has long been the least Labour part of that constituency and will have been comfortably Conservative even when Labour were far ahead in 2017. In 2019, the Conservatives will have absolutely trounced Labour here, even winning comfortably in the more deprived Stobhill area in the south east of the town, where 25% of housing was social rented - and 54.6% of households recorded some dimension of deprivation in 2021, compared with 38.6% in the rest of Morpeth. In May 2021 in the most recent elections for Northumberland county council the Tories did indeed win all three Morpeth divisions getting 57% in Kirkhill (in the west of the town), 54% in Morpeth North and 47.5% in Stobhill – where it was the Liberal Democrats who were in second place, unlike the other two where Labour were, but still 20% behind.
Adjacent to Morpeth are a few small villages. Most are middle class and/or rural like Fairmoor and Longhirst, and as a consequence heavily Conservative voting. The exception is the largest village, Pegswood, which is a former coal mining village in-between Morpeth and Ashington, and is also switched from Wansbeck to North Northumberland. Pegswood has traditionally voted Labour at national elections and they will have been comfortably ahead in 2017. The large swing in 2019, combined with middle class housing development, will likely have meant Pegswood voted Conservative in 2019. The whole of the Pegswood division will now be in North Northumberland, and in May 2021 it did prefer the Tories - by 54% to 42% for Labour.
The former Berwick-upon-Tweed constituency, almost all of which now forms the bulk of North Northumberland, covers an extensive stretch of rural communities and was already one of the largest constituencies in the entire country. It included a diverse range of settlements, from the border town of Berwick, to rural farming communities, to the Northumberland coalfield. These boundaries had seen little substantial change in over a century before the 2023 review. The constituency was originally safely Conservative in the post-war period, but was gained by the Liberals in a 1973 by election on a massive swing. From 1979 onwards, Alan Beith turned this into a safe seat for the Liberals and their successors. While Labour took a distant 2nd in 1997, the Conservatives otherwise retained 2nd place. They significantly narrowed Beith’s majority in 2010, and finally gained the seat in 2015 upon his retirement. The Liberal Democrat vote further unwound in 2017, to the point of Labour taking a distant 2nd place. This was repeated in 2019, with an unusually small decline in the Labour vote and a further decline in the Liberal Democrat vote.
Beginning in the north, we find the eponymous town of Berwick. The northernmost town in England, Berwick is located on both sides of the river Tweed, which otherwise forms the border between England and Scotland. Owing to its location, Berwick was once disputed territory between England and Scotland, and there was even suggestion a few years ago for the SNP to stand a candidate in the constituency. Berwick has long been one of the more Liberal Democrat friendly parts of the constituency, but will have voted comfortably Conservative in the past couple of elections. Despite significant deprivation (59.5% in Berwick-upon-Tweed Town MSOA in the 2021 census, and 39.5% working in routine and semi-routine occupations), Labour get only a modest vote share, at least in part due to the cannibalisation of their vote by the Liberal Democrats. In the May 2021 Northumberland elections in Berwick, its three electoral divisions were won by three different parties: an Independent easily swept East, the Conservatives won North with Labour in second place, and the Liberal Democrats triumphed in West with Ord, by a margin of 1 vote over the Tories.
The next part of the constituency comprises the numerous farming and tourism orientated communities that formed the core of Berwick-upon-Tweed constituency. In the west, these very sparse farming communities stretch from Norham in the north, to Wooler in the middle (and nearby Chillingham Castle), then Rothbury in the south. Norham and nearby communities have traditionally been Liberal Democrat leaning, Rothbury has been more competitive, while Wooler has long been one of the most Conservative parts of the constituency. All these towns and villages will have been reliably Conservative in the past 2 election cycles. Though parts around Wooler are not exactly wealthy, Labour have little support here owing to their agricultural nature. Indeed in 2021 Wooler division saw a Conservative landslide, with 77% of the vote, Labour in second with a mere 8%, followed by LD with 5.7%, Green with 5.5%, and a rare sighting of the SDP with 3.8%: a remarkable Tory performance in a five way contest.
On the coast, the constituency includes a number of tourist destinations. These include Bamburgh (famous for its castle), Lindisfarne/Holy Island, as well as Beadnell and Seahouses. These communities have proved competitive at different council elections, but will vote comfortably Conservative nationally. In 2021 the Conservatives were ahead in the northernmost division Norham & Islandshires, which includes Lindisfarne, but only by 38% to 325% for the Lib Dems. In Bamburgh a little further south, though, the Conservatives swept in with a 71% share. Labour are stronger here than out west, but this is very relative. The constituency then takes in Alnwick, now its third largest town. The town is well known for Alnwick Castle, the filming location for Hogwarts from the Harry Potter film series. Like the other communities already mentioned, Alnwick has been competitive between the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives in the past, but will have voted Conservative in the 2017 and 2019 general elections. In 2021, the Tories did finish top of the poll in the two member Northumberland division of Alnwick, but had ti share representation with a solitary Green candidate who intervened to take a 48% share. The Tory who ran far ahead of his running mate and was elected, was rather appropriately called Gordon Castle.
Finally, the constituency takes in the northernmost part of the Northumberland coalfield. Immediately south of Alnwick is Shilbottle, a small former coal mining village that is nonetheless rather isolated from the rest of the coalfield. It is notably the most Conservative inclined part of the coalfield in this constituency. Sure enough, in 2021 the Conservatives beat Labour by 54% to 21% in Shilbottle ED, though that entity also includes a number of villages with a more agricultural background. On the coast is the port of Amble. Once an economic hub of the area, it has faced significant problems since the closure of the coal mining industry in the mid-20th century. While western Amble is more middle class and comfortably Conservative, the rest of Amble is heavily deprived and Labour voting. Amble West, which is paired for county electoral purposes with Warkworth (as in yet another renowned castle) was taken by the Tories in 2021 while Amble East was won by Labour, as it has been ever since 1989. Similar support for Labour can be found in the villages of Hadston and Widdrington Station, which are in Druridge Bay, also won by Labour ever since its creation as an electoral division in 2008.. Finally, on the south eastern edge of the constituency is Lynemouth. Easily the most deprived part of the constituency (up to 75% in some of its census output areas, especially around Sea View and the Market Square, which us a visit by Google street view is not as twee as it sounds), the forming mining village is strongly Labour, and they held its ED by 57% to 38% Conservative in 2021, despite it including some rural territory as well.
Overall, Berwick upon Tweed has recently become a safe Conservative constituency. While the Liberal Democrats long held the constituency under Alan Beith, the combination of the loss of his incumbency, the woes of the national party, and the strongly pro-remain message have led to the party falling into 3rd place. The Liberal Democrat vote was traditionally rather spread out around the constituency, albeit with some concentration in Berwick and weakness in some rural areas. The Conservative vote, particularly in the past two elections, is stronger in the rural areas in the centre of the constituency. Conversely, the Labour vote is very heavily concentrated in the former coal mining communities in the south. The Conservatives will have won all areas outside the coal mining villages in 2017, and may have proved competitive even there in 2019. They look unlikely to be challenged for the foreseeable future, as the Liberal Democrats seem unable to reassemble their former voting coalition while Labour lack any serious support outside their coal mining heartlands.
The arrival of Morpeth and Pegswood, while overall not typical of their former Wansbeck constituency, will not weaken the Conservative position much but may reinforce Labour’s claim to be the main challengers in the new North Northumberland. Here in the far north of England there are many aspects which are very different from much of the rest of the country and certainly from metropolitan characteristics. With 98.2% of the residents being white, there is hardly any ethnic minority presence. As far as full time students are concerned, North Northumberland ranks 574th out of 575 in England and Wales. Just as Berwick-upon-Tweed did with its 30 years of Beithian Liberalism, it would not be surprising if the new constituency comes to buck a few national trends in the future.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 28.8% 16/575
Owner occupied 65.9% 294/575
Private rented 17.4% 320/575
Social rented 16.7% 223/575
White 98.2% 4/575
Black 0.2% 565/575
Asian 0.7% 560/575
Managerial & professional 32.7% 285/575
Routine & Semi-routine 25.1% 234/575
Degree level 32.7% 271/575
No qualifications 17.5% 304/575
Students 3.5% 574/575
General Election 2019: Berwick-upon-Tweed
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Anne-Marie Trevelyan 23,947 56.9 +4.4
Labour Trish Williams 9,112 21.6 -2.9
Liberal Democrats Tom Hancock 7,656 18.2 -2.9
Green Thomas Stewart 1,394 3.3 +1.4
C Majority 14,835 35.3 +7.4
2019 electorate 59,939
Turnout 42,109 70.3 -1.5
Conservative hold
Swing 3.7 LD to C, 3.7 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
North Northumberland consists of
95.0% of Berwick-upon-Tweed
24.5% of Wansbeck
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-east/North%20East_203_North%20Northumberland_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries – Rallings & Thrasher
The northern part of England’s northernmost county was heavily over-represented up to and including the 2019 general election. The Berwick-upon-Tweed constituency which reached a once long contested border with Scotland only had 59,939 electors, and to its immediate south Wansbeck was also undersized with 63,000. This has meant major boundary changes which have (eventually) resulted in the disappearance of the name of Berwick which had graced a parliamentary division since 1512. The main addition is the three wards of the town of Morpeth, previously in Wansbeck (although it had a seat of its own name between 1553 and 1983), and right up till the final report of the Boundary Commission in June 2023 the name of the resulting merger was recommended to be ‘Berwick and Morpeth’. However after persistent complaints, not least from those who felt that another historic town, Alnwick, had an equal claim to be mentioned in the title, all three have been consigned to anonymity by the geographically descriptive but unromantic North Northumberland. Other changes are that the ward of Pegswood is also switched from Wansbeck, while a section in the south western corner of Berwick (just 5% of its electorate), around the Longhorsley electoral division, switched to Hexham.
Added though, is nearly a quarter of the Wansbeck seat, which (narrowly) remained Labour even in December 2019 when its neighbour Blyth Valley was notably the first (and one if the more unexpected) Conservative gains of the night. However this probably will not have as much of an effect on the political balance of the new North Northumberland as may be thought. A historic market town, Morpeth was the main part of the Wansbeck constituency not to have a significant industrial heritage. It was also by far the most middle class part: in Morpeth South and West MSOA in the 2021 census fully 52% were employed in professional and managerial occupations As a consequence, Morpeth has long been the least Labour part of that constituency and will have been comfortably Conservative even when Labour were far ahead in 2017. In 2019, the Conservatives will have absolutely trounced Labour here, even winning comfortably in the more deprived Stobhill area in the south east of the town, where 25% of housing was social rented - and 54.6% of households recorded some dimension of deprivation in 2021, compared with 38.6% in the rest of Morpeth. In May 2021 in the most recent elections for Northumberland county council the Tories did indeed win all three Morpeth divisions getting 57% in Kirkhill (in the west of the town), 54% in Morpeth North and 47.5% in Stobhill – where it was the Liberal Democrats who were in second place, unlike the other two where Labour were, but still 20% behind.
Adjacent to Morpeth are a few small villages. Most are middle class and/or rural like Fairmoor and Longhirst, and as a consequence heavily Conservative voting. The exception is the largest village, Pegswood, which is a former coal mining village in-between Morpeth and Ashington, and is also switched from Wansbeck to North Northumberland. Pegswood has traditionally voted Labour at national elections and they will have been comfortably ahead in 2017. The large swing in 2019, combined with middle class housing development, will likely have meant Pegswood voted Conservative in 2019. The whole of the Pegswood division will now be in North Northumberland, and in May 2021 it did prefer the Tories - by 54% to 42% for Labour.
The former Berwick-upon-Tweed constituency, almost all of which now forms the bulk of North Northumberland, covers an extensive stretch of rural communities and was already one of the largest constituencies in the entire country. It included a diverse range of settlements, from the border town of Berwick, to rural farming communities, to the Northumberland coalfield. These boundaries had seen little substantial change in over a century before the 2023 review. The constituency was originally safely Conservative in the post-war period, but was gained by the Liberals in a 1973 by election on a massive swing. From 1979 onwards, Alan Beith turned this into a safe seat for the Liberals and their successors. While Labour took a distant 2nd in 1997, the Conservatives otherwise retained 2nd place. They significantly narrowed Beith’s majority in 2010, and finally gained the seat in 2015 upon his retirement. The Liberal Democrat vote further unwound in 2017, to the point of Labour taking a distant 2nd place. This was repeated in 2019, with an unusually small decline in the Labour vote and a further decline in the Liberal Democrat vote.
Beginning in the north, we find the eponymous town of Berwick. The northernmost town in England, Berwick is located on both sides of the river Tweed, which otherwise forms the border between England and Scotland. Owing to its location, Berwick was once disputed territory between England and Scotland, and there was even suggestion a few years ago for the SNP to stand a candidate in the constituency. Berwick has long been one of the more Liberal Democrat friendly parts of the constituency, but will have voted comfortably Conservative in the past couple of elections. Despite significant deprivation (59.5% in Berwick-upon-Tweed Town MSOA in the 2021 census, and 39.5% working in routine and semi-routine occupations), Labour get only a modest vote share, at least in part due to the cannibalisation of their vote by the Liberal Democrats. In the May 2021 Northumberland elections in Berwick, its three electoral divisions were won by three different parties: an Independent easily swept East, the Conservatives won North with Labour in second place, and the Liberal Democrats triumphed in West with Ord, by a margin of 1 vote over the Tories.
The next part of the constituency comprises the numerous farming and tourism orientated communities that formed the core of Berwick-upon-Tweed constituency. In the west, these very sparse farming communities stretch from Norham in the north, to Wooler in the middle (and nearby Chillingham Castle), then Rothbury in the south. Norham and nearby communities have traditionally been Liberal Democrat leaning, Rothbury has been more competitive, while Wooler has long been one of the most Conservative parts of the constituency. All these towns and villages will have been reliably Conservative in the past 2 election cycles. Though parts around Wooler are not exactly wealthy, Labour have little support here owing to their agricultural nature. Indeed in 2021 Wooler division saw a Conservative landslide, with 77% of the vote, Labour in second with a mere 8%, followed by LD with 5.7%, Green with 5.5%, and a rare sighting of the SDP with 3.8%: a remarkable Tory performance in a five way contest.
On the coast, the constituency includes a number of tourist destinations. These include Bamburgh (famous for its castle), Lindisfarne/Holy Island, as well as Beadnell and Seahouses. These communities have proved competitive at different council elections, but will vote comfortably Conservative nationally. In 2021 the Conservatives were ahead in the northernmost division Norham & Islandshires, which includes Lindisfarne, but only by 38% to 325% for the Lib Dems. In Bamburgh a little further south, though, the Conservatives swept in with a 71% share. Labour are stronger here than out west, but this is very relative. The constituency then takes in Alnwick, now its third largest town. The town is well known for Alnwick Castle, the filming location for Hogwarts from the Harry Potter film series. Like the other communities already mentioned, Alnwick has been competitive between the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives in the past, but will have voted Conservative in the 2017 and 2019 general elections. In 2021, the Tories did finish top of the poll in the two member Northumberland division of Alnwick, but had ti share representation with a solitary Green candidate who intervened to take a 48% share. The Tory who ran far ahead of his running mate and was elected, was rather appropriately called Gordon Castle.
Finally, the constituency takes in the northernmost part of the Northumberland coalfield. Immediately south of Alnwick is Shilbottle, a small former coal mining village that is nonetheless rather isolated from the rest of the coalfield. It is notably the most Conservative inclined part of the coalfield in this constituency. Sure enough, in 2021 the Conservatives beat Labour by 54% to 21% in Shilbottle ED, though that entity also includes a number of villages with a more agricultural background. On the coast is the port of Amble. Once an economic hub of the area, it has faced significant problems since the closure of the coal mining industry in the mid-20th century. While western Amble is more middle class and comfortably Conservative, the rest of Amble is heavily deprived and Labour voting. Amble West, which is paired for county electoral purposes with Warkworth (as in yet another renowned castle) was taken by the Tories in 2021 while Amble East was won by Labour, as it has been ever since 1989. Similar support for Labour can be found in the villages of Hadston and Widdrington Station, which are in Druridge Bay, also won by Labour ever since its creation as an electoral division in 2008.. Finally, on the south eastern edge of the constituency is Lynemouth. Easily the most deprived part of the constituency (up to 75% in some of its census output areas, especially around Sea View and the Market Square, which us a visit by Google street view is not as twee as it sounds), the forming mining village is strongly Labour, and they held its ED by 57% to 38% Conservative in 2021, despite it including some rural territory as well.
Overall, Berwick upon Tweed has recently become a safe Conservative constituency. While the Liberal Democrats long held the constituency under Alan Beith, the combination of the loss of his incumbency, the woes of the national party, and the strongly pro-remain message have led to the party falling into 3rd place. The Liberal Democrat vote was traditionally rather spread out around the constituency, albeit with some concentration in Berwick and weakness in some rural areas. The Conservative vote, particularly in the past two elections, is stronger in the rural areas in the centre of the constituency. Conversely, the Labour vote is very heavily concentrated in the former coal mining communities in the south. The Conservatives will have won all areas outside the coal mining villages in 2017, and may have proved competitive even there in 2019. They look unlikely to be challenged for the foreseeable future, as the Liberal Democrats seem unable to reassemble their former voting coalition while Labour lack any serious support outside their coal mining heartlands.
The arrival of Morpeth and Pegswood, while overall not typical of their former Wansbeck constituency, will not weaken the Conservative position much but may reinforce Labour’s claim to be the main challengers in the new North Northumberland. Here in the far north of England there are many aspects which are very different from much of the rest of the country and certainly from metropolitan characteristics. With 98.2% of the residents being white, there is hardly any ethnic minority presence. As far as full time students are concerned, North Northumberland ranks 574th out of 575 in England and Wales. Just as Berwick-upon-Tweed did with its 30 years of Beithian Liberalism, it would not be surprising if the new constituency comes to buck a few national trends in the future.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 28.8% 16/575
Owner occupied 65.9% 294/575
Private rented 17.4% 320/575
Social rented 16.7% 223/575
White 98.2% 4/575
Black 0.2% 565/575
Asian 0.7% 560/575
Managerial & professional 32.7% 285/575
Routine & Semi-routine 25.1% 234/575
Degree level 32.7% 271/575
No qualifications 17.5% 304/575
Students 3.5% 574/575
General Election 2019: Berwick-upon-Tweed
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Anne-Marie Trevelyan 23,947 56.9 +4.4
Labour Trish Williams 9,112 21.6 -2.9
Liberal Democrats Tom Hancock 7,656 18.2 -2.9
Green Thomas Stewart 1,394 3.3 +1.4
C Majority 14,835 35.3 +7.4
2019 electorate 59,939
Turnout 42,109 70.3 -1.5
Conservative hold
Swing 3.7 LD to C, 3.7 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
North Northumberland consists of
95.0% of Berwick-upon-Tweed
24.5% of Wansbeck
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-east/North%20East_203_North%20Northumberland_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries – Rallings & Thrasher
| Con | 29497 | 55.9% |
| Lab | 12191 | 23.1% |
| LD | 8484 | 16.1% |
| Grn | 1793 | 3.4% |
| BxP | 775 | 1.5% |
| Majority | 17306 | 32.8% |
