Post by therealriga on Dec 24, 2023 18:07:31 GMT
[The 18th and last, thanks for reading.]
Foyle was one of the new constituencies created in 1983, when Northern Ireland’s representation was increased by 5 seats. In terms of electorate, it has been a growing constituency, with the result that its boundaries have shrunk to an urban core around the city of Derry/Londonderry. There has long been controversy over the city’s name, with Unionists preferring the official name of Londonderry and Nationalists Derry. The local council had the former name until 1984 and the latter name since then, reflecting the area’s heavy Nationalist majority. This has led to the local, somewhat tongue-in-cheek moniker of “Stroke City.” The constituency avoids such arguments, taking its name from the main river, which was also used for a Northern Ireland parliament constituency which existed until 1973 and covered a smaller area. For most of its history it has been a safe SDLP seat, held by the party leader John Hume until 2005. However, after his 2005 retirement, Sinn Féin began to make substantial inroads and narrowly took the seat in 2017. A large swing in 2019 put it back in the SDLP column.
When first created, it took the western and more Nationalist section of the Londonderry constituency, centred around the city itself, and a small rural area on the city’s fringes. It also included 8 wards of Strabane council, around the eponymous town, which had previously been in the Mid Ulster constituency. The Strabane section was transferred to the new West Tyrone constituency for the 1997 election, leaving a seat coterminous with Derry council. The 2010 changes transferred two mostly rural wards to East Londonderry constituency.
Foyle is second only to Belfast West as the poorest and most Catholic constituency. In the 2011 census, 75.1% had a Catholic community background. The 5 wards with the largest Catholic %, all at 95% or more, at the 2021 census were all located on Derry's West Bank. In 2017, seventeen of the 54 Super Output Areas were ranked in the 10% most deprived wards in Northern Ireland. Crime levels and the proportion of people claiming benefits or some form of income support were way above the regional average. In 2015, 7.6% of the working age population were claiming unemployment benefit, over double the regional average. This reached 17% in The Diamond ward and 11-15% in six of the other seven wards covering the central area. In August 2014, 36% of children lived in low-income families, a figure just behind Belfast North and Belfast West. With an average age of 35.8 years in 2011, Foyle’s electorate was the third youngest in NI.
Derry has a long history of sectarian strife. Serious rioting broke out in the city in the 1920s and left 18 people dead. Despite the city’s Catholic Nationalist majority, gerrymandering preserved Unionist control of the local council until reform in the 1970s. Discrimination in housing and employment fostered resentment which led to the formation of the NI civil rights movement in the 1960s. Violent opposition to this from the security forces and loyalists culminated in the shooting of 13 unarmed civil rights demonstrators on Bloody Sunday in January 1972, providing a massive recruitment boost for the IRA across NI.
Despite the end of the Troubles, sectarian division has not ended. 17,000 Protestants lived on the west bank of the Foyle in 1971, but by the time of the 2011 census this had fallen to 3,169, mostly around The Fountain estate in the city centre. In the 1973 local elections, 3 Unionist councillors were elected on the west bank, but Unionist representation there ended in 1993 when an Independent Unionist lost his seat. No Unionist candidate has stood in a local election there since 1997. Today the Unionist vote is concentrated in the Waterside area on the east bank, though this is no longer as monolithically Unionist as it once was, with Nationalists winning 3 of the 7 council seats there in 2011.
Local politics have usually been dominated by the SDLP. Sinn Féin narrowly overtook them in the 2014 locals, only for the former to regain the lead in 2019. Smaller Republican groups and left and far left candidates have usually been able to secure representation on the council. The battle for the Unionist vote has dominated by the DUP since the 1980s. Foyle has long been fallow ground for centre parties. Alliance won four council seats in Derry in 1973 and two in 1977, but then remained without representation until 2019, when they won a council seat in the Waterside, though they lost both their seats on the council at the 2023 locals.
The first election in the new constituency was won by SDLP leader John Hume, who had represented the NI parliament constituency of the same name from 1969 to 1973. Hume’s majority of 8,148 was comfortable and until his 2005 retirement he won easily, usually receiving around 50% of the vote against a divided opposition. Hume had spearheaded the NI peace process, which had led to the IRA ceasefire. The by-product of this was that Sinn Féin were sanitised in the eyes of Nationalist voters who had previously been reluctant to support the party due to its IRA links. Hume’s successor as MP and SDLP leader, Mark Durkan, saw a reduced majority for his party in 2005 and 2010.
With Sinn Féin overtaking the SDLP at local level in 2014, the 2015 election was expected to be closely fought, however Durkan increased his majority to over 6,000. It was therefore somewhat of a surprise when he was beaten in 2017. Sinn Féin candidate Elisha McCallion secured a swing of 8.3% to win by 169 votes and leave the SDLP without representation at Westminster.
Foyle was expected to produce another close result in 2019. The SDLP retook the seat, however the result was another surprise. SDLP leader Colum Eastwood, who had led the party since 2015, won by a landslide, receiving 57% of the vote to win by 17,110 votes, a far higher figure than even John Hume had enjoyed. The Sinn Féin vote share almost halved. What accounts for this result?
Two factors seem to have been in play. Firstly, McCallion came to be regarded as an ineffective MP and out of her depth. Her victory was undermined by allegations of voter fraud and numerous gaffes. A Tweet complaining that her hotel room in London was “smaller than her bathroom at home” was seized on by critics who pointed to her receiving expenses as an abstentionist MP. Prior to the 2019 election, she patronised constituents by telling them that they could open the door to her, as she was “not a debt collector.”
However, the major factor behind McCallion’s defeat was the 2016 Brexit referendum. In that, 78.3% voted Remain in Foyle, the highest Remain share in NI and the sixth highest in the UK. While Sinn Féin had backed Remain, the party’s abstentionism was heavily criticised as the negotiations dragged on. The 2019 locals, when the Sinn Féin vote fell by 8% and the party lost 5 of its 16 council seats on Derry & Strabane council provided a sign of things to come.
Despite that, it would be premature to write off Sinn Féin's chances as the party has rebounded since 2019. The 2022 Assembly election saw SF remain ahead of the SDLP while SF also clawed back most of its 2019 losses in the 2023 locals, gaining a seat in all the constituency's electoral areas. The boundary changes also provide a tiny boost too. Eglinton and the divided Slievekirk ward are removed. These wards are more Protestant than the average and the effect will be to put the Unionist Assembly seat at risk and provide fewer potential tactical votes for the SDLP. With the Brexit knock-on effect fading a better Sinn Féin should be able to run Eastwood much closer next time.
Foyle was one of the new constituencies created in 1983, when Northern Ireland’s representation was increased by 5 seats. In terms of electorate, it has been a growing constituency, with the result that its boundaries have shrunk to an urban core around the city of Derry/Londonderry. There has long been controversy over the city’s name, with Unionists preferring the official name of Londonderry and Nationalists Derry. The local council had the former name until 1984 and the latter name since then, reflecting the area’s heavy Nationalist majority. This has led to the local, somewhat tongue-in-cheek moniker of “Stroke City.” The constituency avoids such arguments, taking its name from the main river, which was also used for a Northern Ireland parliament constituency which existed until 1973 and covered a smaller area. For most of its history it has been a safe SDLP seat, held by the party leader John Hume until 2005. However, after his 2005 retirement, Sinn Féin began to make substantial inroads and narrowly took the seat in 2017. A large swing in 2019 put it back in the SDLP column.
When first created, it took the western and more Nationalist section of the Londonderry constituency, centred around the city itself, and a small rural area on the city’s fringes. It also included 8 wards of Strabane council, around the eponymous town, which had previously been in the Mid Ulster constituency. The Strabane section was transferred to the new West Tyrone constituency for the 1997 election, leaving a seat coterminous with Derry council. The 2010 changes transferred two mostly rural wards to East Londonderry constituency.
Foyle is second only to Belfast West as the poorest and most Catholic constituency. In the 2011 census, 75.1% had a Catholic community background. The 5 wards with the largest Catholic %, all at 95% or more, at the 2021 census were all located on Derry's West Bank. In 2017, seventeen of the 54 Super Output Areas were ranked in the 10% most deprived wards in Northern Ireland. Crime levels and the proportion of people claiming benefits or some form of income support were way above the regional average. In 2015, 7.6% of the working age population were claiming unemployment benefit, over double the regional average. This reached 17% in The Diamond ward and 11-15% in six of the other seven wards covering the central area. In August 2014, 36% of children lived in low-income families, a figure just behind Belfast North and Belfast West. With an average age of 35.8 years in 2011, Foyle’s electorate was the third youngest in NI.
Derry has a long history of sectarian strife. Serious rioting broke out in the city in the 1920s and left 18 people dead. Despite the city’s Catholic Nationalist majority, gerrymandering preserved Unionist control of the local council until reform in the 1970s. Discrimination in housing and employment fostered resentment which led to the formation of the NI civil rights movement in the 1960s. Violent opposition to this from the security forces and loyalists culminated in the shooting of 13 unarmed civil rights demonstrators on Bloody Sunday in January 1972, providing a massive recruitment boost for the IRA across NI.
Despite the end of the Troubles, sectarian division has not ended. 17,000 Protestants lived on the west bank of the Foyle in 1971, but by the time of the 2011 census this had fallen to 3,169, mostly around The Fountain estate in the city centre. In the 1973 local elections, 3 Unionist councillors were elected on the west bank, but Unionist representation there ended in 1993 when an Independent Unionist lost his seat. No Unionist candidate has stood in a local election there since 1997. Today the Unionist vote is concentrated in the Waterside area on the east bank, though this is no longer as monolithically Unionist as it once was, with Nationalists winning 3 of the 7 council seats there in 2011.
Local politics have usually been dominated by the SDLP. Sinn Féin narrowly overtook them in the 2014 locals, only for the former to regain the lead in 2019. Smaller Republican groups and left and far left candidates have usually been able to secure representation on the council. The battle for the Unionist vote has dominated by the DUP since the 1980s. Foyle has long been fallow ground for centre parties. Alliance won four council seats in Derry in 1973 and two in 1977, but then remained without representation until 2019, when they won a council seat in the Waterside, though they lost both their seats on the council at the 2023 locals.
The first election in the new constituency was won by SDLP leader John Hume, who had represented the NI parliament constituency of the same name from 1969 to 1973. Hume’s majority of 8,148 was comfortable and until his 2005 retirement he won easily, usually receiving around 50% of the vote against a divided opposition. Hume had spearheaded the NI peace process, which had led to the IRA ceasefire. The by-product of this was that Sinn Féin were sanitised in the eyes of Nationalist voters who had previously been reluctant to support the party due to its IRA links. Hume’s successor as MP and SDLP leader, Mark Durkan, saw a reduced majority for his party in 2005 and 2010.
With Sinn Féin overtaking the SDLP at local level in 2014, the 2015 election was expected to be closely fought, however Durkan increased his majority to over 6,000. It was therefore somewhat of a surprise when he was beaten in 2017. Sinn Féin candidate Elisha McCallion secured a swing of 8.3% to win by 169 votes and leave the SDLP without representation at Westminster.
Foyle was expected to produce another close result in 2019. The SDLP retook the seat, however the result was another surprise. SDLP leader Colum Eastwood, who had led the party since 2015, won by a landslide, receiving 57% of the vote to win by 17,110 votes, a far higher figure than even John Hume had enjoyed. The Sinn Féin vote share almost halved. What accounts for this result?
Two factors seem to have been in play. Firstly, McCallion came to be regarded as an ineffective MP and out of her depth. Her victory was undermined by allegations of voter fraud and numerous gaffes. A Tweet complaining that her hotel room in London was “smaller than her bathroom at home” was seized on by critics who pointed to her receiving expenses as an abstentionist MP. Prior to the 2019 election, she patronised constituents by telling them that they could open the door to her, as she was “not a debt collector.”
However, the major factor behind McCallion’s defeat was the 2016 Brexit referendum. In that, 78.3% voted Remain in Foyle, the highest Remain share in NI and the sixth highest in the UK. While Sinn Féin had backed Remain, the party’s abstentionism was heavily criticised as the negotiations dragged on. The 2019 locals, when the Sinn Féin vote fell by 8% and the party lost 5 of its 16 council seats on Derry & Strabane council provided a sign of things to come.
Despite that, it would be premature to write off Sinn Féin's chances as the party has rebounded since 2019. The 2022 Assembly election saw SF remain ahead of the SDLP while SF also clawed back most of its 2019 losses in the 2023 locals, gaining a seat in all the constituency's electoral areas. The boundary changes also provide a tiny boost too. Eglinton and the divided Slievekirk ward are removed. These wards are more Protestant than the average and the effect will be to put the Unionist Assembly seat at risk and provide fewer potential tactical votes for the SDLP. With the Brexit knock-on effect fading a better Sinn Féin should be able to run Eastwood much closer next time.
