Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Dec 24, 2023 12:06:08 GMT
Copyedited version of The Bishop 's original
The seat of Copeland covers a large swathe of West Cumbria, existing in basically its present form since 1918, when the previously highly undersized Whitehaven borough seat was merged with the somewhat larger - both in size and electorate - Egremont (or West Cumberland) county division. Labour had managed to win the old Whitehaven seat in the second 1910 GE, but a right wing "Unionist" narrowly won the "new" Whitehaven division in 1918. It was a Labour gain in 1922, 1929 and 1935 whilst the Tories won in 1924 and 1931 - most of these contests were close and it was not until Labour won by 61% to the Tories 39% in 1945 that it acquired the reputation of a "dependable" seat for them that it retained until the Thatcher years.
Throughout this time the boundaries remained remarkably stable - the aforementioned port and industrial centre of Whitehaven being the biggest urban centre, but at least as important were the mining based communities further inland; Egremont, Cleator Moor, Frizington and Distington being maybe the most significant. Even further out from these is a large expanse of mostly rural territory that takes in both agricultural land and a significant part of the Lake District - including Scafell Pike, the highest point in England (at times, it was Labour's largest seat by area in England if not the UK). At the southern tip of the seat is its only other major urban centre, the one time iron mining town of Millom. As with other Cumbrian seats it is overwhelmingly white British (97%) and the proportion identifying as Christian in the 2011 census (over 77%) was the 11th highest by constituency in the UK - the number professing "no religion" was correspondingly low at 15%.
Just to confuse things a bit, in the 1983 boundary review the seat remained unchanged but the name was switched to Copeland (it had the same boundaries as the district council of that name set up in the 1973 local government reforms). By the time of this switch there had also been something of a change of character; mining steadily declined in importance - iron mining was almost gone by the time the major ironworks at Millom closed in 1968 whilst the last deep coal mine, Haig Pit on the edge of Whitehaven, shut in the mid 1980s - but as that dwindled, the importance of the nuclear plant at Sellafield (begun as Calder Hall in the late 1950s, then expanded as Windscale before it took the name of the nearest hamlet and railway station in the 1980s) steadily grew in both employment and economic terms. The sitting Labour MP since 1970 was Jack Cunningham, who came from a "labour aristocracy" background in the NE and soon achieved ministerial office in the Callaghan government - a strong supporter of nuclear power both locally and nationally, he increasingly came into conflict with a party whose anti-nuclear opinions grew stronger. Unlike with nuclear weapons, however, he and others fought a successful rearguard action to stop the party becoming outright opposed to nuclear power in the 1980s - that and the fact much of the local party backed his stance meant the Tory "SAVE SELLAFIELD" posters seen in the 1980s election campaigns were never quite as successful as the "SAVE TRIDENT" ones just to the south in Barrow - Cunningham held on by a bit under 2k votes in both 1983 and 1987, and increased that to almost 2.5k in 1992 despite perhaps the most spirited Tory campaign of all locally.
As with many similar seats, it stopped being marginal in 1997 as Cunningham's majority soared to almost exactly 12k - but the negative effects locally of the foot and mouth pandemic was one reason why the anti-Labour swing in 2001 was well above average and that was more than halved to just under 5k. This maybe also reflected some local disquiet with Cunningham (his decision to never move into the constituency in his 35 years as an MP always rankled with some) and his retirement before the 2005 GE did not come as a great surprise. The local party picked a local man and Sellafield official, Jamie Reed, as his replacement - and he was rewarded with a small pro-Labour swing (against the national trend) in 2005.
At the subsequent boundary review, changes that had been mooted before 1983 (but successfully fought off by Labour) came into effect and a sizeable slice of neighbouring territory previously in Workington constituency was added - apart from the tourist orientated town of Keswick this was sparsely populated, very rural and almost as equally Tory. By general consent, Reed did well to hold the redrawn seat by nearly 4k as Labour lost power nationally in 2010 - and it is fair to say that the reduced Labour majority, and turnout, in 2015 came as an unpleasant surprise to him (and others). Maybe it helped explain how things went totally haywire once Corbyn won the leadership later that year - Reed resigning as a front bencher literally the very minute Jez's win was announced, and his estrangement increasing until he quit as an MP at the end of 2016.
What was always a byelection Labour definitely did not want (a vote for Brexit by around 60% in the 2016 referendum was another factor here) was only made worse when Corbyn visited and gave an incoherent interview on nuclear power (one of the very lowest, if more widely overlooked than certain others, moments of his leadership) and by polling day a historic win for the photogenic and persuasive Tory candidate, Trudy Harrison, was widely expected - the first win for a Tory here since 1931. This said, though, had the previously mentioned boundary changes passed in the early 1980s, as originally planned, they would very likely have won in 1983 and 1987 and maybe in 1992 as well. Her actual majority of 2k (7%) was definitely at the worse end of Labour expectations, though, and winning by that much helped her survive a scare in June as a rejuvenated Labour still fell short by 4%. As in most "red wall" seats, the Tory win in 2019 was significantly more decisive - by a nearly 6k majority and 14%. The district of Copeland now also has a Tory elected mayor, though the fact he won both his contests as an Independent caused a few cynical observations when he "crossed over" to the blues earlier this year.
But with 40% of the vote even in December, Labour are far from "down and out" here as they seem to currently be in similar seats. It is likely that last year they still carried much of Whitehaven (generally speaking, the best Tory areas are in the north of the town - Bransty especially) and some of the poorer ex-mining communities - but it is quite possible Egremont (now mostly a base for Sellafield workers) voted Tory despite still being good for Labour at local level, and Millom now normally does so by fairly clear margins. Of course, the rural areas (plus the generally well off commuter settlements Seascale and St Bees) mostly give the blue team a hefty mandate - though Keswick (not unlike Ulverston in the Barrow seat) is acquiring a bit of a "trendy" tinge and may become better for Labour in future. Harrison is not defending her seat, .Andrew Johnson has been selected to defend.
Boundary changes move the vast space around Millom and Scafell to the new Barrow and Furness (note, "and", not "in".) Keswick and it's surroundings are transferred into a Penrith and Solway seat, a sprawling redrawing of the Penrith/Border constituency. The new version of Copeland loses its historic name, too, the new seat identifying the main population centres of Workington and Whitehaven. The towns and villages hug the coastline while the vast Ennerdale and Wastdale areas take the seat out into the mountainous Cumberland centre.
This seat becomes the marginal it once was due to these changes. Pete Whitehead has worked out the figures as:
The seat of Copeland covers a large swathe of West Cumbria, existing in basically its present form since 1918, when the previously highly undersized Whitehaven borough seat was merged with the somewhat larger - both in size and electorate - Egremont (or West Cumberland) county division. Labour had managed to win the old Whitehaven seat in the second 1910 GE, but a right wing "Unionist" narrowly won the "new" Whitehaven division in 1918. It was a Labour gain in 1922, 1929 and 1935 whilst the Tories won in 1924 and 1931 - most of these contests were close and it was not until Labour won by 61% to the Tories 39% in 1945 that it acquired the reputation of a "dependable" seat for them that it retained until the Thatcher years.
Throughout this time the boundaries remained remarkably stable - the aforementioned port and industrial centre of Whitehaven being the biggest urban centre, but at least as important were the mining based communities further inland; Egremont, Cleator Moor, Frizington and Distington being maybe the most significant. Even further out from these is a large expanse of mostly rural territory that takes in both agricultural land and a significant part of the Lake District - including Scafell Pike, the highest point in England (at times, it was Labour's largest seat by area in England if not the UK). At the southern tip of the seat is its only other major urban centre, the one time iron mining town of Millom. As with other Cumbrian seats it is overwhelmingly white British (97%) and the proportion identifying as Christian in the 2011 census (over 77%) was the 11th highest by constituency in the UK - the number professing "no religion" was correspondingly low at 15%.
Just to confuse things a bit, in the 1983 boundary review the seat remained unchanged but the name was switched to Copeland (it had the same boundaries as the district council of that name set up in the 1973 local government reforms). By the time of this switch there had also been something of a change of character; mining steadily declined in importance - iron mining was almost gone by the time the major ironworks at Millom closed in 1968 whilst the last deep coal mine, Haig Pit on the edge of Whitehaven, shut in the mid 1980s - but as that dwindled, the importance of the nuclear plant at Sellafield (begun as Calder Hall in the late 1950s, then expanded as Windscale before it took the name of the nearest hamlet and railway station in the 1980s) steadily grew in both employment and economic terms. The sitting Labour MP since 1970 was Jack Cunningham, who came from a "labour aristocracy" background in the NE and soon achieved ministerial office in the Callaghan government - a strong supporter of nuclear power both locally and nationally, he increasingly came into conflict with a party whose anti-nuclear opinions grew stronger. Unlike with nuclear weapons, however, he and others fought a successful rearguard action to stop the party becoming outright opposed to nuclear power in the 1980s - that and the fact much of the local party backed his stance meant the Tory "SAVE SELLAFIELD" posters seen in the 1980s election campaigns were never quite as successful as the "SAVE TRIDENT" ones just to the south in Barrow - Cunningham held on by a bit under 2k votes in both 1983 and 1987, and increased that to almost 2.5k in 1992 despite perhaps the most spirited Tory campaign of all locally.
As with many similar seats, it stopped being marginal in 1997 as Cunningham's majority soared to almost exactly 12k - but the negative effects locally of the foot and mouth pandemic was one reason why the anti-Labour swing in 2001 was well above average and that was more than halved to just under 5k. This maybe also reflected some local disquiet with Cunningham (his decision to never move into the constituency in his 35 years as an MP always rankled with some) and his retirement before the 2005 GE did not come as a great surprise. The local party picked a local man and Sellafield official, Jamie Reed, as his replacement - and he was rewarded with a small pro-Labour swing (against the national trend) in 2005.
At the subsequent boundary review, changes that had been mooted before 1983 (but successfully fought off by Labour) came into effect and a sizeable slice of neighbouring territory previously in Workington constituency was added - apart from the tourist orientated town of Keswick this was sparsely populated, very rural and almost as equally Tory. By general consent, Reed did well to hold the redrawn seat by nearly 4k as Labour lost power nationally in 2010 - and it is fair to say that the reduced Labour majority, and turnout, in 2015 came as an unpleasant surprise to him (and others). Maybe it helped explain how things went totally haywire once Corbyn won the leadership later that year - Reed resigning as a front bencher literally the very minute Jez's win was announced, and his estrangement increasing until he quit as an MP at the end of 2016.
What was always a byelection Labour definitely did not want (a vote for Brexit by around 60% in the 2016 referendum was another factor here) was only made worse when Corbyn visited and gave an incoherent interview on nuclear power (one of the very lowest, if more widely overlooked than certain others, moments of his leadership) and by polling day a historic win for the photogenic and persuasive Tory candidate, Trudy Harrison, was widely expected - the first win for a Tory here since 1931. This said, though, had the previously mentioned boundary changes passed in the early 1980s, as originally planned, they would very likely have won in 1983 and 1987 and maybe in 1992 as well. Her actual majority of 2k (7%) was definitely at the worse end of Labour expectations, though, and winning by that much helped her survive a scare in June as a rejuvenated Labour still fell short by 4%. As in most "red wall" seats, the Tory win in 2019 was significantly more decisive - by a nearly 6k majority and 14%. The district of Copeland now also has a Tory elected mayor, though the fact he won both his contests as an Independent caused a few cynical observations when he "crossed over" to the blues earlier this year.
But with 40% of the vote even in December, Labour are far from "down and out" here as they seem to currently be in similar seats. It is likely that last year they still carried much of Whitehaven (generally speaking, the best Tory areas are in the north of the town - Bransty especially) and some of the poorer ex-mining communities - but it is quite possible Egremont (now mostly a base for Sellafield workers) voted Tory despite still being good for Labour at local level, and Millom now normally does so by fairly clear margins. Of course, the rural areas (plus the generally well off commuter settlements Seascale and St Bees) mostly give the blue team a hefty mandate - though Keswick (not unlike Ulverston in the Barrow seat) is acquiring a bit of a "trendy" tinge and may become better for Labour in future. Harrison is not defending her seat, .Andrew Johnson has been selected to defend.
Boundary changes move the vast space around Millom and Scafell to the new Barrow and Furness (note, "and", not "in".) Keswick and it's surroundings are transferred into a Penrith and Solway seat, a sprawling redrawing of the Penrith/Border constituency. The new version of Copeland loses its historic name, too, the new seat identifying the main population centres of Workington and Whitehaven. The towns and villages hug the coastline while the vast Ennerdale and Wastdale areas take the seat out into the mountainous Cumberland centre.
This seat becomes the marginal it once was due to these changes. Pete Whitehead has worked out the figures as:
Con 23275. 48.4%
Lab 21202. 44.1%
LD 1732 3.6%
BxP 777. 1.6%
Grn 755 1.6%
Oth 362 0.8%
Majority
2073 4.3%
