Post by therealriga on Dec 22, 2023 18:36:17 GMT
Newry & Armagh was created in 1983, consisting of most of the former Armagh constituency, minus its urban northern section and uniting Newry, part of which had been in South Down. Though the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) won the inaugural contest, all subsequent elections have been won by nationalists. After nearly two decades in SDLP hands, it is now a safe Sinn Féin (SF) seat.
Since its creation the constituency has been unchanged. The Boundary Commission proposed its abolition in 1994, as part of a radical redrawing. The southern half would have become part of a Newry & Mourne constituency, with the northern half joining Dungannon in a "Blackwater" constituency. A less radical solution was adopted which left it intact. They then suggested splitting Newry in 2005, with the eastern wards going to South Down, but this was again rejected in a local enquiry. In 2010 it consisted of 17 wards of Newry & Mourne council, plus the whole of Armagh council. Local government reform in 2014 left it containing the western parts of both Armagh, Banbridge & Craigavon (ABC) council and Newry, Mourne & Down council.
Newry gained city status in 2002. It is strongly Catholic, with a small Protestant minority in its north-east corner and the last Unionist councillor lost his seat in 2001. The South Armagh area contained NI’s “Bandit Country” where, for years, the British Army patrolled only by helicopter. The Slieve Gullion electoral area which covers it was one of the few in NI which unionists did not even bother to contest from 1985 to 2014 (when it expanded to cover more favourable Unionist territory.) Despite its links with physical force Irish Republicanism, the SDLP won most seats there until after the IRA ceasefire and since that time it has become one of SF’s strongest areas, with the party winning 5 of the 7 council seats in 2023.
Moving north, the Nationalist hegemony begins to weaken, the areas north-west of Newry, including Newtownhamilton, have a Unionist vote of around 30%. The ABC section, containing the central part of County Armagh (the former Armagh council), has a sharp sectarian east-west divide. The Catholic % is under or barely breaking 10% in Hamiltonsbawn, Laurelvale, Richhill and Tandragee and less than a fifth of the population in Markethill. In contrast, Armagh city is now over 70% Catholic, with most of the area to its west exceeding that figure.
Traditionally an area of low income and unemployment, its position on the Belfast-Dublin corridor has improved the local economy, so most indicators of poverty such as unemployment claimants, the percentage of people living in low income households or receiving income support are now at or slightly above the NI average. Pockets of poverty remain. Five of the 50 Super Output Areas (SOAs) in Newry and Armagh (including the border town of Crossmaglen, Armagh’s Callan Bridge estate, and Drumgullion in north Newry) are ranked in the 10% most deprived wards in Northern Ireland. Educational levels are high, with the constituency having the largest % of people in higher education in Northern Ireland.
In 2011 the average age was 36.4 years (4th youngest in NI.) 66.4% had a Catholic community background, the sixth highest in NI. In the 2016 Brexit referendum, the constituency seems to have largely broken on sectarian lines, with 63.1% voting remain.
While the SDLP had been the dominant Nationalist group for the previous decade, they were hurt by a strong SF challenge in 1983. A 35% - 25% split in the SDLP’s favour allowed the sole Unionist, Jim Nicholson of the UUP, to win on a split vote. Like all other Unionist MPs, Nicholson triggered a by-election in protest at the Anglo-Irish Agreement and was the only MP not to return, losing by over 1,500 votes.
For 30 years until the Richmond Park by-election of 2016, Nicholson had the unwanted distinction of being the last MP to lose his seat in a self-inflicted by-election. He remains the last to do so and never return to The Commons.
His successor Seamus Mallon increased his majority at subsequent elections, coming close to an absolute majority of votes in 1992. Mallon, as SDLP deputy leader, played a leading role in the talks in the early phase of the NI peace process, though as a long term critic of IRA violence was sceptical of his party leader’s talks with SF. Mallon became Deputy First Minister of NI following the Good Friday Agreement. However, the IRA ceasefire had sanitised SF in the eyes of younger nationalist voters and Mallon saw his majority cut to 3,575 votes in 2001, his last contest.
His retirement saw SF gain the seat on an 11% swing to win by over 8,000 in 2005, with Conor Murphy becoming the new MP. His party colleague, Mickey Brady, who succeeded him in 2015, has seen majorities of 12k and 9k in the last two general elections and Sinn Féin also made gains in the 2023 locals and improved their position in the 2022 Assembly election, taking 47% of the vote.
Oversized, Newry & Armagh will see boundary changes for the first time at the next election. Blackwatertown in transferred to Fermangagh & South Tyrone, while the mostly Protestant Loughgall goes to Upper Bann. These changes will not hurt the incumbent and this looks a safe SF seat for the foreseeable future.
Since its creation the constituency has been unchanged. The Boundary Commission proposed its abolition in 1994, as part of a radical redrawing. The southern half would have become part of a Newry & Mourne constituency, with the northern half joining Dungannon in a "Blackwater" constituency. A less radical solution was adopted which left it intact. They then suggested splitting Newry in 2005, with the eastern wards going to South Down, but this was again rejected in a local enquiry. In 2010 it consisted of 17 wards of Newry & Mourne council, plus the whole of Armagh council. Local government reform in 2014 left it containing the western parts of both Armagh, Banbridge & Craigavon (ABC) council and Newry, Mourne & Down council.
Newry gained city status in 2002. It is strongly Catholic, with a small Protestant minority in its north-east corner and the last Unionist councillor lost his seat in 2001. The South Armagh area contained NI’s “Bandit Country” where, for years, the British Army patrolled only by helicopter. The Slieve Gullion electoral area which covers it was one of the few in NI which unionists did not even bother to contest from 1985 to 2014 (when it expanded to cover more favourable Unionist territory.) Despite its links with physical force Irish Republicanism, the SDLP won most seats there until after the IRA ceasefire and since that time it has become one of SF’s strongest areas, with the party winning 5 of the 7 council seats in 2023.
Moving north, the Nationalist hegemony begins to weaken, the areas north-west of Newry, including Newtownhamilton, have a Unionist vote of around 30%. The ABC section, containing the central part of County Armagh (the former Armagh council), has a sharp sectarian east-west divide. The Catholic % is under or barely breaking 10% in Hamiltonsbawn, Laurelvale, Richhill and Tandragee and less than a fifth of the population in Markethill. In contrast, Armagh city is now over 70% Catholic, with most of the area to its west exceeding that figure.
Traditionally an area of low income and unemployment, its position on the Belfast-Dublin corridor has improved the local economy, so most indicators of poverty such as unemployment claimants, the percentage of people living in low income households or receiving income support are now at or slightly above the NI average. Pockets of poverty remain. Five of the 50 Super Output Areas (SOAs) in Newry and Armagh (including the border town of Crossmaglen, Armagh’s Callan Bridge estate, and Drumgullion in north Newry) are ranked in the 10% most deprived wards in Northern Ireland. Educational levels are high, with the constituency having the largest % of people in higher education in Northern Ireland.
In 2011 the average age was 36.4 years (4th youngest in NI.) 66.4% had a Catholic community background, the sixth highest in NI. In the 2016 Brexit referendum, the constituency seems to have largely broken on sectarian lines, with 63.1% voting remain.
While the SDLP had been the dominant Nationalist group for the previous decade, they were hurt by a strong SF challenge in 1983. A 35% - 25% split in the SDLP’s favour allowed the sole Unionist, Jim Nicholson of the UUP, to win on a split vote. Like all other Unionist MPs, Nicholson triggered a by-election in protest at the Anglo-Irish Agreement and was the only MP not to return, losing by over 1,500 votes.
For 30 years until the Richmond Park by-election of 2016, Nicholson had the unwanted distinction of being the last MP to lose his seat in a self-inflicted by-election. He remains the last to do so and never return to The Commons.
His successor Seamus Mallon increased his majority at subsequent elections, coming close to an absolute majority of votes in 1992. Mallon, as SDLP deputy leader, played a leading role in the talks in the early phase of the NI peace process, though as a long term critic of IRA violence was sceptical of his party leader’s talks with SF. Mallon became Deputy First Minister of NI following the Good Friday Agreement. However, the IRA ceasefire had sanitised SF in the eyes of younger nationalist voters and Mallon saw his majority cut to 3,575 votes in 2001, his last contest.
His retirement saw SF gain the seat on an 11% swing to win by over 8,000 in 2005, with Conor Murphy becoming the new MP. His party colleague, Mickey Brady, who succeeded him in 2015, has seen majorities of 12k and 9k in the last two general elections and Sinn Féin also made gains in the 2023 locals and improved their position in the 2022 Assembly election, taking 47% of the vote.
Oversized, Newry & Armagh will see boundary changes for the first time at the next election. Blackwatertown in transferred to Fermangagh & South Tyrone, while the mostly Protestant Loughgall goes to Upper Bann. These changes will not hurt the incumbent and this looks a safe SF seat for the foreseeable future.
