Post by Robert Waller on Dec 21, 2023 19:48:09 GMT
This is largely based on the well informed analysis of MacShimidh - he is the first person 'I' in the text - with some collation of his work on the relevant previous constituencies, updates on boundary changes and recent election results by myself
As the name suggests, Glasgow East is centred on the East End of Glasgow, a loosely-defined area that is almost entirely contained within this seat. Long known as the roughest part of Glasgow, the East End was once an industrial powerhouse whose engineering and textile industries were renowned, giving the city its deserved soubriquet as second city of the British Empire. Today though, these industries are gone, and this seat is now Scotland’s most deprived.
Although there is nowhere in this seat as deprived as Possilpark, now in Glasgow North, this seat is more uniformly deprived, with only a couple of affluent areas and very few notable landmarks. It would probably be fair to say that this seat has seen more publicly funded regeneration projects than any other part of Scotland. The results have been mixed – in some parts, the effects of regeneration have been overwhelmingly positive; in others, it has merely served to paper over significant cracks. Additionally, this seat appears to be swiftly depopulating – markedly so in the areas which have seen the most regeneration (although this is due in part to a decrease in overcrowding).
Demographically, this seat has an overwhelmingly white population of 94%, making it the whitest seat in an already non-diverse city. Historically, the Irish were the main immigrants to this part of Glasgow, and even today there are a relatively large number of residents who self-describe as “white Irish.” In 2014, this seat voted Yes just like every other Glasgow constituency, although for such a working-class stronghold, its estimated Yes vote in the mid-to-low fifties was not quite as emphatic as may be expected. In 2016, its Remain vote was similarly underwhelming. At 56% Remain, six points lower than the Scottish national average, this was a fairly Brexity seat by Scottish standards.
East is the constituency most altered in the major boundary changes in Glasgow consequent upon the abolition of its Central constituency and the reduction of its representation at Westminster from seven to six. 41% of its electorate has been removed, almost entirely to Glasgow NE, including one famous name in the annals of Glasgow deprivation, Easterhouse. On the other hand East has picked up the single largest chunk (also by coincidence 41%) of the defunct Central, including another, the Gorbals. As a result Glasgow East has changed both its centre of gravity and its shape. It has effectively moved substantially to the west into the heart of the city, and also has become much thinner north/south, so it now looks like an elongated rectangle stretching from the Catholic cathedral to the spaghetti-like M8/M73 junction at the city’s eastern border.
Beginning at this seat’s new western boundary in the section taken from Glasgow Central constituency, we start with a section of the city centre including St.Andrew’s cathedral and Glasgow Green. Immediately east of the city centre the character of the constituency shifts very noticeably as we arrive in Glasgow’s infamous East End. This part of the East End, known as the Calton, is one of the poorest in the city and has been blighted by sectarian violence, drugs, and prostitution. Some years ago, a survey showed that life expectancy was lower here than in parts of Iraq and the Gaza Strip, although I would be surprised if things were still that bad. Like everywhere in Glasgow, things have improved a lot here in recent decades, but along with Bridgeton and Dalmarnock it still has a reputation as one of the city’s grimmest areas. Politically, this is an area of strength for the SNP, but it has an extremely low turnout rate and in 2017 there was a huge shock when it returned a Conservative councillor. In the most recent city elections in May 2022 the Tories lost their seat, and two each of SNP and Labour were returned. On first preferences the SNP led their main rivals by 39.4% to 34.2%.
On the other side of the Clyde from Glasgow Green lies Glasgow’s Southside and the Gorbals. This was once a famously awful place to live due to overcrowding and is still fairly deprived, but having been redeveloped several times over the decades it has deservedly lost its bad reputation. Further to the south is Govanhill which is less gentrified and redeveloped than the Gorbals, with Govanhill arguably having the worse reputation nowadays. Over seven eighths of Southside Central ward is included in East constituency now, and in Mat 2022 the SNP edged out Labour by 34% to 31%, these figures being on the low side because the Greens took 18% and Alba 8% -by far their best performance in the city that year.
Our tour of this seat eastward from Calton continues at Celtic Park and its associated neighbourhood, Parkhead. It is an irony that Parkhead and most other areas within Celtic Park’s orbit have historically been Protestant enclaves where the Orange Order has flourished – though of course, the issue of religion no longer carries the significance that it once did in Glasgow. Also adjacent to Celtic Park is Camlachie, an area once acclaimed for its textile industry and which from 1885-1955 gave its name to a parliamentary constituency. Today, the area has been flattened and is now the site of the Forge Shopping Centre. Overall, this is a very deprived section of Glasgow, and even the significant regeneration which took place in preparation for the 2014 Commonwealth Games has not been enough to overcome this.
Following the Gallowgate eastwards, we come to Shettleston, probably the best-known area in this constituency. Shettleston is effectively the heart of the East End, and in some ways, it typifies Glasgow overall – it is a decidedly working-class area, with some pockets of serious deprivation mixed with some upmarket areas. Regeneration in this part of the city has been rather low-key, with the main focus being on renovating the existing housing. The area around Tollcross Park has been the main beneficiary of this but is still deprived. This stands in contrast to Mount Vernon, an established, middle-class area which is one of the gems of the East End. Mount Vernon is not “posh” exactly, but it is by some distance the most affluent area of this seat, and it is likely that a strong Conservative performance here in the 2017 locals gave the Shettleston ward a Tory councillor. That was repeated in 2022, when the Tories led by that incumbent Thomas Kerr managed 16.7% of first preferences in Shettleston ward. Overall it was Labour who led in the ward, with 39% to the Nationalists’ 35%. Shettleston, with 19,800 electors, is the most populous part of East on its new lines, so Labour’s recent success here (and indeed its favour for unionist parties in general) offers optimism for their chances of regaining it at the next general election.
Further still to the east, we reach Baillieston, which at nearly 10 kilometres away from the city centre is Glasgow’s most peripheral area. Walking around Baillieston and neighbouring Garrowhill, you would probably think them rather rough around the edges, but this appearance belies the fact that this part of the East End is relatively well-off and has one of the highest rates of home-ownership anywhere in Glasgow. It would be a stretch to call Baillieston a middle-class area in the same vein as Mount Vernon; a more apt label would probably be “aspirational working class,” somewhere that sums up the optimistic and resilient working-class culture of the city. Like Shettleston, Baillieston gave a plurality of first preference votes to Labour in May 2022, -but in its case only by 0.1%, by 38.3% to 38.2%. The Conservatives were also within 0.1% of their share in Shettleston that year, and here too that was enough to elect a councillor after transfers. Indeed these two wards were the only places in the whole city where they did retain representation, going down from 8 seats in 2017 to 2 in 2022.
The East seat was created in 2005 and has had the most interesting history of any of Glasgow’s current constituencies. It was won in 2005 by Labour’s David Marshall, a long-time backbencher who had previously represented Glasgow Shettleston since 1979. Marshall was caught up in the parliamentary expenses scandal and subsequently resigned on health grounds. The 2008 by-election that followed remains the most spectacular Scottish by-election of this century so far. On paper one of the safest Labour seats anywhere in the UK, the by-election came at the height of Gordon Brown’s unpopularity and a month after the resignation of Wendy Alexander, the Scottish Labour leader.
The contest pitted the Labour MSP for Glasgow Baillieston, Margaret Curran, against the SNP leader on Glasgow City Council, John Mason, against one another. Labour had a selection headache – Curran was in fact the party’s fifth choice to contest the seat after various big names within the party turned down the nomination. The result was a total humiliation for Labour – the SNP overturned a majority of 13,507 to beat them by 365 votes, on a swing of 22.5%. The SNP were ecstatic to have a seventh MP at Westminster, although Mason proved to be rather low-key during his two years there. Since being elected to Holyrood in 2011 however, he has revealed himself to be an odd character who has annoyed women, gays, and the scientific community with his dodgy pronouncements over the years.
In hindsight, Mason’s victory should have served as a warning sign for the Labour cataclysm of 2015, but in fairness, this was not obvious at the time. In 2010 it was back to business as normal as Curran took back the seat for Labour, winning a higher share of the vote than Marshall had managed in 2005. Curran was the consummate party insider and was often mentioned as a potential Scottish leader during her time as an MSP. She was appointed Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland by Miliband a year after entering Westminster and became a household name because of her big role in the Better Together campaign. In 2015 she lost Glasgow East for the second time, on an even larger swing of 31% to the SNP. Her seniority within the party didn’t save her; given the mood of the moment, it probably harmed her a great deal.
Curran was succeeded by the SNP’s Natalie McGarry, who in addition to being married to Glasgow’s then-only Conservative councillor, was also a niece of the Presiding Officer of the Scottish Parliament, Tricia Marwick. McGarry was something of a Marmite character within the SNP – depending on who you asked, she was either a rising star or an annoyance who picked stupid fights on social media. After only six months as an MP, McGarry was removed from the SNP whip after the emergence of legal troubles relating to embezzlement which at the time of writing are still ongoing. She sat as an independent for the rest of that parliament and did not contest the 2017 election. The SNP replaced her with David Linden, a young party official, who has held the seat ever since.
Glasgow East is bordered by three seats that were regained by Labour in 2017, however voters here stuck with the SNP, albeit by a paper-thin margin of 75 votes. Why is this? The answer is somewhat surprising – it is because of a Conservative surge. Tory fortunes here have been quite remarkable – they went from losing their deposit in 2010 to getting nearly 20% in 2017, and even after a drop in 2019 Glasgow East was still their second-strongest seat in the city – and is now probably their strongest given the boundary changes and taking into consideration the May 2022 local election results. I suspect that the Tories managed to convince a significant number of Labour unionists in places like Mount Vernon and Baillieston to rally behind them, and presumably the fact that this is a somewhat Brexit-friendly seat also played a role. Regardless, this surge is bad for Labour as the seat is only big enough for one unionist challenger to the SNP. The essential situation in Glasgow East has not been changed by the impact of the boundary review. Like nearly every other seat in Glasgow, they have to win it back to be a significant player in Scotland again, and probably to win a majority at Westminster – it is as simple as that.
2011 Census, old boundaries
Age 65+ 15.5% 415/650
Owner-occupied 46.2% 601/650
Private rented 9.1% 608/650
Social rented 43.3% 6/650
White 96.4% 274/650
Black 1.2% 243/650
Asian 2.0% 360/650
Managerial & professional 17.6%
Routine & Semi-routine 38.6%
Degree level 12.7% 647/650
No qualifications 42.2% 2/650
Students 7.8% 236/650
General Election 2019: Glasgow East
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP David Linden 18,357 47.7 +8.9
Labour Kate Watson 12,791 33.2 -5.4
Conservative Thomas Kerr 5,709 14.8 -4.0
Liberal Democrats James Harrison 1,626 4.2 +2.6
SNP Majority 5,566 14.5 +14.3
Turnout 38,483 57.1 +2.5
SNP hold
Swing Lab to SNP 7.1
Boundary Changes
Glasgow East consists of
59.3% of Glasgow East
41.4% of Glasgow Central
1.9% of Glasgow South
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/glasgow_east_0.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Professor David Denver for Rallings and Thrasher)
As the name suggests, Glasgow East is centred on the East End of Glasgow, a loosely-defined area that is almost entirely contained within this seat. Long known as the roughest part of Glasgow, the East End was once an industrial powerhouse whose engineering and textile industries were renowned, giving the city its deserved soubriquet as second city of the British Empire. Today though, these industries are gone, and this seat is now Scotland’s most deprived.
Although there is nowhere in this seat as deprived as Possilpark, now in Glasgow North, this seat is more uniformly deprived, with only a couple of affluent areas and very few notable landmarks. It would probably be fair to say that this seat has seen more publicly funded regeneration projects than any other part of Scotland. The results have been mixed – in some parts, the effects of regeneration have been overwhelmingly positive; in others, it has merely served to paper over significant cracks. Additionally, this seat appears to be swiftly depopulating – markedly so in the areas which have seen the most regeneration (although this is due in part to a decrease in overcrowding).
Demographically, this seat has an overwhelmingly white population of 94%, making it the whitest seat in an already non-diverse city. Historically, the Irish were the main immigrants to this part of Glasgow, and even today there are a relatively large number of residents who self-describe as “white Irish.” In 2014, this seat voted Yes just like every other Glasgow constituency, although for such a working-class stronghold, its estimated Yes vote in the mid-to-low fifties was not quite as emphatic as may be expected. In 2016, its Remain vote was similarly underwhelming. At 56% Remain, six points lower than the Scottish national average, this was a fairly Brexity seat by Scottish standards.
East is the constituency most altered in the major boundary changes in Glasgow consequent upon the abolition of its Central constituency and the reduction of its representation at Westminster from seven to six. 41% of its electorate has been removed, almost entirely to Glasgow NE, including one famous name in the annals of Glasgow deprivation, Easterhouse. On the other hand East has picked up the single largest chunk (also by coincidence 41%) of the defunct Central, including another, the Gorbals. As a result Glasgow East has changed both its centre of gravity and its shape. It has effectively moved substantially to the west into the heart of the city, and also has become much thinner north/south, so it now looks like an elongated rectangle stretching from the Catholic cathedral to the spaghetti-like M8/M73 junction at the city’s eastern border.
Beginning at this seat’s new western boundary in the section taken from Glasgow Central constituency, we start with a section of the city centre including St.Andrew’s cathedral and Glasgow Green. Immediately east of the city centre the character of the constituency shifts very noticeably as we arrive in Glasgow’s infamous East End. This part of the East End, known as the Calton, is one of the poorest in the city and has been blighted by sectarian violence, drugs, and prostitution. Some years ago, a survey showed that life expectancy was lower here than in parts of Iraq and the Gaza Strip, although I would be surprised if things were still that bad. Like everywhere in Glasgow, things have improved a lot here in recent decades, but along with Bridgeton and Dalmarnock it still has a reputation as one of the city’s grimmest areas. Politically, this is an area of strength for the SNP, but it has an extremely low turnout rate and in 2017 there was a huge shock when it returned a Conservative councillor. In the most recent city elections in May 2022 the Tories lost their seat, and two each of SNP and Labour were returned. On first preferences the SNP led their main rivals by 39.4% to 34.2%.
On the other side of the Clyde from Glasgow Green lies Glasgow’s Southside and the Gorbals. This was once a famously awful place to live due to overcrowding and is still fairly deprived, but having been redeveloped several times over the decades it has deservedly lost its bad reputation. Further to the south is Govanhill which is less gentrified and redeveloped than the Gorbals, with Govanhill arguably having the worse reputation nowadays. Over seven eighths of Southside Central ward is included in East constituency now, and in Mat 2022 the SNP edged out Labour by 34% to 31%, these figures being on the low side because the Greens took 18% and Alba 8% -by far their best performance in the city that year.
Our tour of this seat eastward from Calton continues at Celtic Park and its associated neighbourhood, Parkhead. It is an irony that Parkhead and most other areas within Celtic Park’s orbit have historically been Protestant enclaves where the Orange Order has flourished – though of course, the issue of religion no longer carries the significance that it once did in Glasgow. Also adjacent to Celtic Park is Camlachie, an area once acclaimed for its textile industry and which from 1885-1955 gave its name to a parliamentary constituency. Today, the area has been flattened and is now the site of the Forge Shopping Centre. Overall, this is a very deprived section of Glasgow, and even the significant regeneration which took place in preparation for the 2014 Commonwealth Games has not been enough to overcome this.
Following the Gallowgate eastwards, we come to Shettleston, probably the best-known area in this constituency. Shettleston is effectively the heart of the East End, and in some ways, it typifies Glasgow overall – it is a decidedly working-class area, with some pockets of serious deprivation mixed with some upmarket areas. Regeneration in this part of the city has been rather low-key, with the main focus being on renovating the existing housing. The area around Tollcross Park has been the main beneficiary of this but is still deprived. This stands in contrast to Mount Vernon, an established, middle-class area which is one of the gems of the East End. Mount Vernon is not “posh” exactly, but it is by some distance the most affluent area of this seat, and it is likely that a strong Conservative performance here in the 2017 locals gave the Shettleston ward a Tory councillor. That was repeated in 2022, when the Tories led by that incumbent Thomas Kerr managed 16.7% of first preferences in Shettleston ward. Overall it was Labour who led in the ward, with 39% to the Nationalists’ 35%. Shettleston, with 19,800 electors, is the most populous part of East on its new lines, so Labour’s recent success here (and indeed its favour for unionist parties in general) offers optimism for their chances of regaining it at the next general election.
Further still to the east, we reach Baillieston, which at nearly 10 kilometres away from the city centre is Glasgow’s most peripheral area. Walking around Baillieston and neighbouring Garrowhill, you would probably think them rather rough around the edges, but this appearance belies the fact that this part of the East End is relatively well-off and has one of the highest rates of home-ownership anywhere in Glasgow. It would be a stretch to call Baillieston a middle-class area in the same vein as Mount Vernon; a more apt label would probably be “aspirational working class,” somewhere that sums up the optimistic and resilient working-class culture of the city. Like Shettleston, Baillieston gave a plurality of first preference votes to Labour in May 2022, -but in its case only by 0.1%, by 38.3% to 38.2%. The Conservatives were also within 0.1% of their share in Shettleston that year, and here too that was enough to elect a councillor after transfers. Indeed these two wards were the only places in the whole city where they did retain representation, going down from 8 seats in 2017 to 2 in 2022.
The East seat was created in 2005 and has had the most interesting history of any of Glasgow’s current constituencies. It was won in 2005 by Labour’s David Marshall, a long-time backbencher who had previously represented Glasgow Shettleston since 1979. Marshall was caught up in the parliamentary expenses scandal and subsequently resigned on health grounds. The 2008 by-election that followed remains the most spectacular Scottish by-election of this century so far. On paper one of the safest Labour seats anywhere in the UK, the by-election came at the height of Gordon Brown’s unpopularity and a month after the resignation of Wendy Alexander, the Scottish Labour leader.
The contest pitted the Labour MSP for Glasgow Baillieston, Margaret Curran, against the SNP leader on Glasgow City Council, John Mason, against one another. Labour had a selection headache – Curran was in fact the party’s fifth choice to contest the seat after various big names within the party turned down the nomination. The result was a total humiliation for Labour – the SNP overturned a majority of 13,507 to beat them by 365 votes, on a swing of 22.5%. The SNP were ecstatic to have a seventh MP at Westminster, although Mason proved to be rather low-key during his two years there. Since being elected to Holyrood in 2011 however, he has revealed himself to be an odd character who has annoyed women, gays, and the scientific community with his dodgy pronouncements over the years.
In hindsight, Mason’s victory should have served as a warning sign for the Labour cataclysm of 2015, but in fairness, this was not obvious at the time. In 2010 it was back to business as normal as Curran took back the seat for Labour, winning a higher share of the vote than Marshall had managed in 2005. Curran was the consummate party insider and was often mentioned as a potential Scottish leader during her time as an MSP. She was appointed Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland by Miliband a year after entering Westminster and became a household name because of her big role in the Better Together campaign. In 2015 she lost Glasgow East for the second time, on an even larger swing of 31% to the SNP. Her seniority within the party didn’t save her; given the mood of the moment, it probably harmed her a great deal.
Curran was succeeded by the SNP’s Natalie McGarry, who in addition to being married to Glasgow’s then-only Conservative councillor, was also a niece of the Presiding Officer of the Scottish Parliament, Tricia Marwick. McGarry was something of a Marmite character within the SNP – depending on who you asked, she was either a rising star or an annoyance who picked stupid fights on social media. After only six months as an MP, McGarry was removed from the SNP whip after the emergence of legal troubles relating to embezzlement which at the time of writing are still ongoing. She sat as an independent for the rest of that parliament and did not contest the 2017 election. The SNP replaced her with David Linden, a young party official, who has held the seat ever since.
Glasgow East is bordered by three seats that were regained by Labour in 2017, however voters here stuck with the SNP, albeit by a paper-thin margin of 75 votes. Why is this? The answer is somewhat surprising – it is because of a Conservative surge. Tory fortunes here have been quite remarkable – they went from losing their deposit in 2010 to getting nearly 20% in 2017, and even after a drop in 2019 Glasgow East was still their second-strongest seat in the city – and is now probably their strongest given the boundary changes and taking into consideration the May 2022 local election results. I suspect that the Tories managed to convince a significant number of Labour unionists in places like Mount Vernon and Baillieston to rally behind them, and presumably the fact that this is a somewhat Brexit-friendly seat also played a role. Regardless, this surge is bad for Labour as the seat is only big enough for one unionist challenger to the SNP. The essential situation in Glasgow East has not been changed by the impact of the boundary review. Like nearly every other seat in Glasgow, they have to win it back to be a significant player in Scotland again, and probably to win a majority at Westminster – it is as simple as that.
2011 Census, old boundaries
Age 65+ 15.5% 415/650
Owner-occupied 46.2% 601/650
Private rented 9.1% 608/650
Social rented 43.3% 6/650
White 96.4% 274/650
Black 1.2% 243/650
Asian 2.0% 360/650
Managerial & professional 17.6%
Routine & Semi-routine 38.6%
Degree level 12.7% 647/650
No qualifications 42.2% 2/650
Students 7.8% 236/650
General Election 2019: Glasgow East
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP David Linden 18,357 47.7 +8.9
Labour Kate Watson 12,791 33.2 -5.4
Conservative Thomas Kerr 5,709 14.8 -4.0
Liberal Democrats James Harrison 1,626 4.2 +2.6
SNP Majority 5,566 14.5 +14.3
Turnout 38,483 57.1 +2.5
SNP hold
Swing Lab to SNP 7.1
Boundary Changes
Glasgow East consists of
59.3% of Glasgow East
41.4% of Glasgow Central
1.9% of Glasgow South
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/glasgow_east_0.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Professor David Denver for Rallings and Thrasher)
| SNP | 20055 | 48.7% |
| Lab | 13779 | 33.5% |
| Con | 5071 | 12.3% |
| LD | 1689 | 4.1% |
| Green | 566 | 1.4% |
| Brexit | 25 | 0.1% |
| Oths | ||
| Majority | 6276 | 15.2% |